adam Posted July 10, 2023 Report Share Posted July 10, 2023 Here are the best seasons for the top 4 receiving options for Fields: 87-1175, 4 81-1055, 4 62-873, 9 50-544, 7 That is 280-3647 yds, 24 TDs combined for just Moore, Mooney, Claypool, and Kmet. Take 10% off that for shared targets and you still have 252-3283, 21 TDs to just the top 4 players. No RBs, no WR4-5, and no TE2-3. Last year, with the worst passing offense in the league, Monty had 34-316, 1 TD, ESB/Pringle/Pettis/Jones combined for 57-810, 7 TD 91-1126, 8 TD and Herbert as RB2 had 9-57, and 1 TD, so the remainder of the receivers totaled 100-1183, 9 TD, if you take 10% off for shared targets, that is 90-1065, 8 TD. So in theory, if the top 4 receivers play near their potential and the rest of the receivers do what they did last year, that would be near 342-4348 yds, and 29 TDs. So no koolaid here, take 10% off those numbers for overlapping shared targets and a potential for less attempts: 308-3913, 26 TDs. Thoughts on those numbers over 17 games (230 yds per game, 1.5 TDs a game)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted July 10, 2023 Report Share Posted July 10, 2023 i guess I cant argue with the potential of DJ Moore to break 1100 yards and 4 TDs. But If Mooney gives us 800 and 4 TD, Claypool gives us 500 and 4 TD, and Kmet gives us 500 with 6 TD That's 2,900 yards and 18 TDs. I feel like thats more reasonable. But then, I see your numbers broken down into per game numbers, and they look entirely reasonable. To average under 250 yards and 2 TDs a game seems right. And my numbers would be 170 yds, 1 TD per game, and that definitely feels low. Maybe Im being thrown off of the big numbers here because there are 17 games now instead of 16. or maybe Im just a Bears fan and think that have two WRs over 1,000 yards is fantasyland because I'm not used to seeing it. So my thoughts are at first blush i think you aimed too high, and then broken down it seems quite doable, so yeah, that's our offensive potential, sure. I think you nailed it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted July 11, 2023 Report Share Posted July 11, 2023 2 hours ago, adam said: So no koolaid here, take 10% off those numbers for overlapping shared targets and a potential for less attempts: 308-3913, 26 TDs. That would be great. I would be thrilled with 3500 and 25. My guess is the running game will hit for 2700 and 20. With about 20 field goals, we should average 22pts a game, with bonus points from the D. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted July 11, 2023 Report Share Posted July 11, 2023 Looking into this more - Adam's projection - 230 yards per game is just slightly above the NFL average passing yards per game (21-22 season) of 223. That's not pie in the sky, it's just average. Our (my?) perspective as a Bears fan has really clouded my expectations for the passing game. Adam's not reaching, if anything he could be underestimating, or the RBs and TE2 etc will make up the rest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted July 11, 2023 Report Share Posted July 11, 2023 When looking at last year, its hard to wrap your head around anything above 3500 and 25 but I think our number of 3 and outs are a thing of the past. We are simply going to have 10 to 15 more offensive plays a game. That opens the potential for a lot better numbers. DJs numbers will be over a thousand yards. I think the next 3 will all be over 600 yds , not which one will stand out to be #2 in targets. You have the other WRs, Tonyan, and the RBs to add in, I think 3500 and 25 will be the floor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted July 11, 2023 Report Share Posted July 11, 2023 51 minutes ago, Stinger226 said: I think 3500 and 25 will be the floor. While I agree with most of what you said, your floor has only happened four times in franchise history. What makes Justin and his supporting cast better than those of the past? I'll stand with being thrilled with 3500 and 25... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted July 11, 2023 Report Share Posted July 11, 2023 actually we seem to be agreeing. I just think the Justin breakout yr is this yr and most people are hesitate. I get I'm an optimist, but the talent and work ethic is there for that to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted July 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2023 One problem, like an MSRP, is the anchor point. Fields new norm is 2500 yds passing and anything wildly over that number is seen as too unrealistic. 226 yds per game passing for 17 games would be a Bears franchise record. Fields had 7.1 yds per attempt, but had such a low number of attempts, it really messes with the numbers. That was 14th in the NFL for QBs with 2K passing yards or more. Middle of the pack. So if he gets middle of the pack attempts, he magically jumps over 3800 yds easily. I still feel like he will end up around 3500 passing yards with 800 rushing yards but I really think we are underestimating how bad the WR Corps was last year. Moore is going to give Fields 2-3 easy completions per game (which will add up to +500 yds right off the top from last year). Claypool as a WR3, Tonyan as a TE2. This is a sneaky good Receiving Corps with options out of the backfield (Homer especially). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted July 13, 2023 Report Share Posted July 13, 2023 All of those comments strengthen my opinion that our offense will excel this year. I think between3500 to 4000 yds. Our low expectations are established because of the history of the team. We have a new history evolving in front of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted July 13, 2023 Report Share Posted July 13, 2023 I’ve been left at the altar so many times it’s hard to believe this time will be different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted July 13, 2023 Report Share Posted July 13, 2023 7 hours ago, adam said: 226 yds per game passing for 17 games would be a Bears franchise record. that is so crazy. I hope it all changes soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted July 14, 2023 Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 Its going to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted July 14, 2023 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2023 On 7/13/2023 at 2:09 PM, AZ54 said: I’ve been left at the altar so many times it’s hard to believe this time will be different. What is wild is there is almost zero correlation between any Bears team before 2020 and this team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted July 15, 2023 Report Share Posted July 15, 2023 1 hour ago, adam said: What is wild is there is almost zero correlation between any Bears team before 2020 and this team. right! It really shows how bringing in Poles and Warren and removing Phillips and McCaskey is going to make a huge difference. It might not be easy to see, but Phillips and the McCaskeys ruined us for several decades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted July 15, 2023 Report Share Posted July 15, 2023 51 minutes ago, adam said: What is wild is there is almost zero correlation between any Bears team before 2020 and this team. I know. I feel good about this roster but it's just so young. I've said it before but one year ago before training camp I never expected us to have a roster this talented. That's not implying it's a Superbowl caliber talent just much better than I expected heading in our 2nd training camp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted July 15, 2023 Report Share Posted July 15, 2023 1 minute ago, BearFan PHX said: right! It really shows how bringing in Poles and Warren and removing Phillips and McCaskey is going to make a huge difference. It might not be easy to see, but Phillips and the McCaskeys ruined us for several decades. Love what Poles is doing. Warren already managed to put the new stadium deal in limbo so we'll see what he's capable of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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