Justin's weapons

[Stinger226]

Between last year and now , Poles has changed the offense to be capable of high end production. Adding DJ is easily the biggest move and I rate restructuring of the OL second. I think ever spot on the oline has been upgraded.

I expect Jones to be better. Jenkins is an upgrade over Whitehair that didn't have a good year. Whitehair is easily a huge step up from Mustifer. Davis is a top 10 RG in the league. Wright, as a rookie, will be better than Reif last year.

WR room: Moore, Mooney, Claypool, V Jones, Tyler Scott , Pettis, ESB. How are the targets going to be distributed ? Ideally Moore has close to 100 catches, Mooney and Claypool both reach 60 catches each, Scott and Jones splits 50 catches. Can't see much for Pettis or ESB.

TE room:  I expect Kmet to get to 60 catches and Tonyan to have 6 TDs.

RB room: I think this is one of our strengths and between them all we will do more passing this year or we would have led the NFL will amount to top 5 in the league in rushing. 

For us to achieve my projections, we would have to be  top 5 in the league in offense. 

Realistically one or two  of the WRs will not reach my projections, and Kmet may not reach 60 catches. 

Taking a positive view, where am I off with my projections? Obviously, Fields is not going to have over 400 completions but I think over 325 is reasonable.

Where am I off? 

[Mongo3451]

We've all stated that Justin is the key to the offense, which is undeniable.  Beyond that is the big IF.  IF Claypool is the guy we brought him in him to be, the offense will, theoretically, be unstoppable on paper.  The reason it's Claypool instead of Moore, is the freak factor.  Claypool can take so much pressure off of everyone else, because he must be accounted for, because of his unique abilities.  DJ will get HIS regardless.  Unlocking the entire field is with Chase. With that we should see amazingly balanced stats. 

I see Kmet as an ascending player in our offense.  How much more room will be have to operate, now that so many weapons can soften the middle of the field, by stretching the deep third?  That's where Kmet and Tonyan live. 

Our running back room is better than last year, so their collective YPC and YPG should go up.  

With the OL, OMG I'm excited.  Let's pump the brakes on immediate pass pro success though.  It's gonna take time and preseason will not do it.  I expect an opening day grind fest with the Packers, with both teams challenging each teams collective manhood, to impose will and take over the game.  

With the WR group, I don't expect gaudy numbers.  If you look back at what Rodgers did in his last couple of MVP seasons, it was the TD to INT rate and completing percentage that was ridiculous.  He didn't challenge the record books for yards and TD's.  My expectation for the WR group is that they make plays when called upon to do so.  It may be to pick up 9 when we need 8.  It may be to make great blocks in the run game.  It will definitely be to stretch the field when the defense comes up.  And occasionally win the jump ball catches.

Stats for this team, this year, would be ideal if we can average:

34 min TOP, 66% comp, 4.9 YPC, 16 first downs and a 2-1 INT/TD rate.

Stat predictions:

Justin:  3400 yds passing 25 TD, 700 rush 10 TD with 14 INT. 

Backs should account for 1900 rushing with 15 TD.

TE's should account for 95 rec for 950 yards and 8 TD.

WR's should get around 170 receptions for 2200 yards and 14 TD.(backs will get the remainder) 

Most importantly, in all of this, is that Justin will only get sacked 30 times this year, with 10 of them being on him.  This should be the most balanced offense the Bears have EVER had.  Toward the end of the season, it should be the most explosive.

[Stinger226]

Those numbers seem realistic. If Moore is who we think he is , he alone should get 85 recs on the low side. For Justin to reach 3400 yds, he needs to average 200 yds a game. I clearly see that as being reasonable. I think Justin is capable of what Hurts did last yr. 

460

306

3701

66.5

8

22

4.8

6

1.3

 I think Justin gets those types of numbers this yr with more TDs . Instead of 22 , 28-30.

[AZ54]

Watch this and you'll get a sense of how Justin's running affected a top defense in the NFL last year. 

On the first play he breaks down the WRs are Pettis, VJJ, Pringle.  Pringle is gone, VJJ was still learning the offense but had the speed to do what he did in taking the safety deep.  If Justin has time that's likely where he goes.  Swap them out with DJ Moore running the double move instead of Pettis, Claypool - keep him back to block like Pringle he's a lot bigger and stronger, and then pick one of Mooney/VJJ/Scott going deep down the middle.   

On the 2nd play is when you really see the Justin effect.  If that holds true this year with this WR corps we're going to get some big plays.  If that happens then defenses will have to adjust and play deeper off the line with the 2nd safety and try to keep it all in front of them.  Typically when you do that with an elite running QB teams will want to keep eyes forward and that means more zone coverage. 

Through the first 4 games teams will be testing Justin and likely mixing up coverages to see what he and the offense struggle with and what doesn't work.  I'm sure the revamped Oline gets tested early and often too, especially in week 1.  It'll be interesting to see how it evolves later in the season.  

  

[adam]

I saw a tweet that stated the Bears were 1 of 4 teams with 3x WRs that have had a 850 yard season.

They are the only team with 3 players that had over 700 yards rushing last year. Fields - 1143, Foreman - 914, Herbert - 731. 

The Bears are also only one of two teams to have 2x TEs who had 450 yards or more in 2022 (CHI and CLE).

 

To me, that is pretty impressive to have that type of offensive output at all skill positions on offense. It also shows the depth. 

[Stinger226]

Now teams not only have to worry about Justin but DJ will have to be planned for. Take into account the best rushing team in the league and more reliable throwing options. Play action will kill this year. In the first quarter we need to have a long run by Justin and one deep ball completion, the defense will be back on their heels all day. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

The Fields and Claypool connection is on the rise too.  Fields trust in Claypool is showing in practice and if he is confident in this offense, we might have an offense to reckon with.  If we can put up points, that will allow the defense to take more risks and we might be one of the hottest teams this season going from worst to ?

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

The Fields and Claypool connection is on the rise too.  Fields trust in Claypool is showing in practice and if he is confident in this offense, we might have an offense to reckon with.  If we can put up points, that will allow the defense to take more risks and we might be one of the hottest teams this season going from worst to ?

That's important, especially with trust.  Justin can let it rip sooner if he trusts his target.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Claypool hobbled by what appears to be a hamstring issue.  Then ESB goes out (in relief) and tweaks his ankle.  Ugh…

 

[adam]

Claypool has shown enough, no need to risk further injury, let him rest up for the opener. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Claypool has shown enough, no need to risk further injury, let him rest up for the opener. 

Some needs to get in this kids head that soft tissue injuries are telling that he is not taking care or properly his body.

Maybe he wasn't cleared to fully prepare since his season ended early last year with a toe injury.  I want him to shine and win a new contract and set backs like this only add strikes.  Get him healed and ready, 30 day until kickoff!

[AZ54]

His little scuffle with Tyrique Stevenson where he put the DB on the ground likely tweaked it a bit.  I think on his next rep is where he pulled up on the route.   We don't need injuries but we do need some offensive players bringing the competitive fire.   Claypool has helped with that.  Hopefully just a couple weeks of rest and he's back at practice.   

Just saw this from the HC and he seems to sense that his team needs that fire: 

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/lists/bears-training-camp-takeaways-day-12-justin-fields-darnell-mooney-darnell-wright/

Matt Eberflus didn’t seem to have a problem with Claypool’s chirping.

“As long as it doesn’t lead to penalties or lack of execution,” Eberflus said. “If you can keep your focus and that’s how you do it and you don’t fight, that’s how I look at it.”

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

His little scuffle with Tyrique Stevenson where he put the DB on the ground likely tweaked it a bit.  I think on his next rep is where he pulled up on the route.   We don't need injuries but we do need some offensive players bringing the competitive fire.   Claypool has helped with that.  Hopefully just a couple weeks of rest and he's back at practice.   

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/lists/bears-training-camp-takeaways-day-12-justin-fields-darnell-mooney-darnell-wright/

Matt Eberflus didn’t seem to have a problem with Claypool’s chirping.

 

My takeaways from this report:

- Stevenson doesn’t have an issue standing up to veteran players.  Hoping that doesn’t add up to Javon Wims style lack of discipline but rather confidence building.  
 

- the interior line seems to be a mess.  So far I’m not keen on Davis.  Leatherwood and Jenkins are cream puffy and I’m glad Patrick isn’t the starter anywhere.  

[AZ54]

59 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

My takeaways from this report:

- Stevenson doesn’t have an issue standing up to veteran players.  Hoping that doesn’t add up to Javon Wims style lack of discipline but rather confidence building.  
 

- the interior line seems to be a mess.  So far I’m not keen on Davis.  Leatherwood and Jenkins are cream puffy and I’m glad Patrick isn’t the starter anywhere.  

I like Stevenson's moxie too.  Just don't get too handsy and get penalties.  It's football like any good sport there is always a bit of mixing it up.  

[adam]

9 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

My takeaways from this report:

- Stevenson doesn’t have an issue standing up to veteran players.  Hoping that doesn’t add up to Javon Wims style lack of discipline but rather confidence building.  
 

- the interior line seems to be a mess.  So far I’m not keen on Davis.  Leatherwood and Jenkins are cream puffy and I’m glad Patrick isn’t the starter anywhere.  

Wims was a bum, Stevenson is way better.

[Stinger226]

9 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

My takeaways from this report:

- Stevenson doesn’t have an issue standing up to veteran players.  Hoping that doesn’t add up to Javon Wims style lack of discipline but rather confidence building.  
 

- the interior line seems to be a mess.  So far I’m not keen on Davis.  Leatherwood and Jenkins are cream puffy and I’m glad Patrick isn’t the starter anywhere.  

So Jenkins is a cream puff? If you've referring to being injury prone, it hasn't been good, but as as playing football he kicks ass.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

21 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

If you've referring to being injury prone, it hasn't been good

Yes