Predicting the 53-man roster

[adam]

Here is my best 53-man guesstimate as of 8/5.  Getting DL down to 9 is going to be tough.

Blue/Bold is the Special Teamers. The Bears lost key ST contributors in DHC, J. Thomas, S. Weatherford, M. Adams, R. Griffin, and look like they will be losing Ebner's, and maybe even Jaylon Jones' ST snap share. 

2 QB
Fields, Justin 21/1    
Walker, PJ U/CAR
- This seems like a lock, a 3rd QB would be a waste.

4 RB
Herbert, Khalil 21/6    
Foreman, D'Onta U/CAR
Johnson, Roschon 23/4 (ST) - replaces Ebner
Homer, Travis U/SEA (ST) - replaces Griffin
- I don't see more than 4, Ebner odd man out here.

1 FB
- Blasingame, Khari U/TEN (ST)

3 TE
Kmet, Cole 20/2    
Tonyan, Robert U/GB
Lewis, Marcedes U/GB
- I don't see them carrying 4, which other position would you take from to carry 4? Tonges to PS?

6 WR
Moore, DJ T/CAR
Mooney, Darnell 20/5
Claypool, Chase T/PIT
Scott, Tyler 23/4
Jones Jr., Velus 22/3 (ST)
St. Brown, Equanimeous U/GB (ST) > this WR slot is almost exclusively ST.
- WR6 is going to be very interesting. That WR will see basically 0 offensive snaps, and ESB doesn't play ST.  I can't see Poles giving up on Velus this soon, and Scott was a 4th rounder (they rarely go to the PS).  So they may just rearrange these guys and bump ESB up to WR4, but that seems counter productive. 

9 OL
LT    Jones, Braxton 22/5
LG    Davis, Nate U/TEN    
C    Whitehair, Cody 16/2    
RG    Jenkins, Teven 21/2
RT    Wright, Darnell 23/1
Borom, Larry 21/5 
Patrick, Lucas U/GB
Carter, Ja'Tyre 22/7
Leatherwood, Alex W/LV
- I don't know if they will carry 9 or 10 OL on opening day. That will actually have a pretty big roster impact as I think it would come from the DL. If Patrick can play both Center and Guard, do you really need more than 2 Interior and 2 Tackle subs?

DEFENSE        
9 DL
LDE    Ngakoue, Yannick U/IND    
LDT    Jones, Justin U/LAC
RDT    Billings, Andrew U/LV
RDE    Walker, DeMarcus U/TEN    
Green, Rasheem U/TEX
Dexter, Gervon 23/2
Pickens, Zacch 23/3
Robinson, Dominique 22/5
Gipson, Trevis 20/5 or Lewis, Terrell SF22
- With 7 new acquisitions in this group, this is a group to watch. Travis Bell, Andrew Brown, D'Anthony Jones, and Bravvion Roy are currently the odd men out, and either Gipson or Lewis, who has been a camp standout. Another cut candidate could be Green ($1.6M in savings) if they like Gipson and Lewis better than Green.

6 LB
WLB    Edwards, T.J. U/PHI    
MLB    Edmunds, Tremaine U/BUF    
SLB    Sanborn, Jack CF22 (ST)
Sewell, Noah 23/5 (ST) - replaces Thomas
Cole, Dylan U/TEN (ST) - replaces Weatherford
Johnson, Buddy U/PIT (ST) - replaces Adams
- this group seem fairly locked in with 5 new guys out of 6.

6 CB
LCB    Johnson, Jaylon 20/2
RCB    Stevenson, Tyrique 23/2    
NB    Gordon, Kyler 22/2    
Smith, Terell 23/5
Blackwell, Josh W/PHI (ST)
Vildor, Kindle 20/5 or Jones, Jaylon CF22 (ST) > this DB slot has to play ST
- CB6 is going to be very interesting. Since the Bears drafted 2x CBs that are expected to make the roster, that really pushes Vildor, Jones, and guys like Stroman basically off the roster. If CB6 is an ST slot, Jaylon Jones is the front runner. If not, then Vildor has a chance, but then you need to find another rostered player to take Jones' snaps on ST.

4 S
SS    Brisker, Jaquan 22/2
FS    Jackson, Eddie 17/4
Hicks, Elijah 22/7 (ST)
Williamson, Kendall 23/7 (ST) - replaces DHC

- This group seems like a lock, but there is a chance that someone like Trahan makes a big enough impact to replace Williamson or Hicks. Neither are roster locks, but both of those slots will be playing ST. Hicks probably has the upper hand with a year under his belt. 

Thoughts?

Did I jack something up? Did I miss someone. 

For me the surprise cuts would be ESB on offense and Gipson ($2.7M savings) or Vildor ($2.7M savings) on defense. If they can't make the 53-man, as vets, they would be cut, saving some cap. 

[Stinger226]

I think you're spot on. The questions will be if they need another spot on the Oline, or if they end up wanting to keep Pettis. Buddy Johnson could make the practice squad. If they keep Gipson, Lewis could still do the practice squad. There will not be any surprise cuts because they can still play with the practice squad.

[Mongo3451]

Great work on this.  You did forget Pettis at WR, who I still like over ESB.  But, it ain't that deep.  Also, you have the starting OG positions switched up.  Other than that, great stuff!

[adam]

8 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Great work on this.  You did forget Pettis at WR, who I still like over ESB.  But, it ain't that deep.  Also, you have the starting OG positions switched up.  Other than that, great stuff!

The last WR spot seems up for grabs between ESB and Pettis. It just feels like Pettis is slightly redundant with Scott and Velus, but I could be wrong. I was thinking that Getsy likes "his" guys (ESB, Patrick, Tonyan, and now Lewis).

[adam]

8 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think you're spot on. The questions will be if they need another spot on the Oline, or if they end up wanting to keep Pettis. Buddy Johnson could make the practice squad. If they keep Gipson, Lewis could still do the practice squad. There will not be any surprise cuts because they can still play with the practice squad.

I doubt the Bears go into Week 1 with only 2 backup LBs, 6 seems like the number, and they cut Weatherford for Johnson, so I was just making an educated guess there.

There is no way Gipson or Lewis make it to the PS as the Bears have to waive them first. 

[Stinger226]

7 hours ago, adam said:

I doubt the Bears go into Week 1 with only 2 backup LBs, 6 seems like the number, and they cut Weatherford for Johnson, so I was just making an educated guess there.

There is no way Gipson or Lewis make it to the PS as the Bears have to waive them first. 

70% of their snaps are in nickel so only 2 LBers will be on the field at a time. I think it comes down to STs  which they are more likely to keep the extra LB or  edge instead of RB or WR.

[AZ54]

I think Scott makes the 53 for sure but if he keeps dropping passes and punts like he did today and yesterday we won’t see much of him.  
 

Safety depth is interesting and not in a good way IMO.   I expected more from Kendall Williamson but he’s been very quiet so far.  Hicks is just an average athlete but seems to be assignment sound.  That’s the type of emergency player I’d prefer to keep on a practice squad.   The door is wide open for Trahan or anyone to earn a spot behind our starters.  
 

CB top 5, appear to be set.  Blackwell was a special teams stud in coverage last year so I expect he is #5 and  makes the 53. You could call him #6 if you prefer.   If we keep 6 I can’t guess who it will be other than, barring injury, I doubt it is Vildor. 
 

Overall I think Adam is spot on   

This year I feel like most positions will be good and have one good backup except safety and OT.  
 

Adding Ngakoue fixed that concern at DE.  I think one or maybe two of DRob or Lewis emerge there.  Green will likely be what he’s always been - a backup level player.  
 

There is a lot of competition in the bottom 10-15 players competing for the 53 which will make the preseason worth watching, at least for me.    Maybe next year we can cut that number in half.  

[Stinger226]

I think Terrell Smith could play S if needed, may end up being the  starter at CB. He's gotten snaps there. I think Hicks can give us decent minutes but definitely thin at S. A J Thomas got some snaps last year, he may stick and Williamson goes to the practice squad.

[adam]

The good thing overall is that we are worrying about bottom of the roster guys, not starters, not backups, and the bottom 4-5 guys on the roster barely play significant minutes, if any. That is a good sign. 

If you think of target count, majority of the targets will go to WR1, WR2, TE1, RB1, then WR3, WR4, TE2, and RB2 will get almost all of the others. The Bears are stacked in those positions with Moore, Claypool, Kmet, and Herbert, then Mooney, Velus, Tonyan, and Foreman.

WR5, TE3, and RB3 will all have less than 10. Scott/ESB, Lewis, and Roschon/Homer.

In terms of snaps on defense, the DT rotation is deep, and DE now has 5 guys. LB Corps is stacked (Edmunds, Edwards, Sanborn, Sewell), and the secondary is sneaky good (Jackson, Brisker, Johnson, Gordon, Stevenson/Smith).

I feel better about the top 50 guys than I have in a long time.

This is probably your bottom 10 of the 53-man:

QB2 - Walker, PJ U/CAR
CB6 - Vildor, Kindle 20/5 or Jones, Jaylon CF22 (ST) 
DE5 - Gipson, Trevis 20/5 or Lewis, Terrell SF22
TE3 - Lewis, Marcedes U/GB 
OL9 - Leatherwood, Alex W/LV
LB5 - Cole, Dylan U/TEN (ST) 
WR6 - St. Brown, Equanimeous U/GB (ST)
S4 - Williamson, Kendall 23/7 (ST) 
RB4 - Homer, Travis U/SEA (ST) 
LB6 - Johnson, Buddy U/PIT (ST) 

[Stinger226]

Agree with that, the bottom 10 has been upgraded.

[AZ54]

PJ Walker is not very good.  For a team that’s been searching for QB1 forever I’m not going to worry about QB2.  

[Stinger226]

No matter how much the roster has been upgraded, 2 things control our fate for the year. Justin Fields breakout season and limited injuries. We can get by with a few starters getting injured but the core players need to be healthy for most of the year. If we can stay healthy, 9 - 10 victories seem doable and if Justin hits his 4000 yards passing game, try 11 - 12 victories.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

On 8/5/2023 at 5:20 PM, adam said:

3 TE
Kmet, Cole 20/2    
Tonyan, Robert U/GB
Lewis, Marcedes U/GB
- I don't see them carrying 4, which other position would you take from to carry 4? Tonges to PS?

 

[AZ54]

26 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Who did we cut?  Chase Allen was let go in a swap with Lewis.  Now we add this guy?  If he was better than Chase we'd have kept him after minicamp.  Although I have to say after watching this I think he's got better tools than Allen.  Nothing high end but his size with a year in the system could yield a decent 3rd TE.  His blocking technique is often poor where he gets out over his skis too far but that can be improved.  His agility to turn around on the move and adjust to the ball is pretty good for someone 6'6" tall.  As always these are highlights, and against low level competition, so we don't get to see dropped passes and missed blocks.  I'd say he has a shot at the practice squad.   

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

9 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Chase Allen was let go in a swap with Lewis.  Now we add this guy?

I read somewhere Allen was let go on an ‘injury waiver’.  ??‍♂️. You’re right that all we’re seeing here are true highlight films but seems pretty good at blocking at the point of attack and occasionally good at getting behind the defense for big gains.  Maybe there’s something to the Marcedes Lewis protege(?).  He could either be this years Sanborn or previous years’ Kellen Davis or Adam Shaheen.  
 

[AZ54]

First depth chart and there are a couple things worth noting.  First Kindle Vildor is way down the depth chart...like way down.  

At OT Kellen Diesch flirted with a backup role at OT but is now behind Borom and some guy I never heard of ..Aviante Collins.  

At OG Leatherwood is staying in the mix with Carter for a backup OG role.  

At WR Velus is behind Pettis and Scott but he's also listed first team KR/PR.  

At DE DomRob is listed as 2nd string and Terrell Lewis 3rd.   Trevis Gipson has fallen into the 'other' category.  

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/lists/chicago-bears-depth-chart-ahead-of-preseason-opener-2023/

[Stinger226]

YN sure isnt a very big guy. 6'2" 246 lbs. I think they have to high end TEs, the next two will be blockers, Lewis and the new guy?

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

First depth chart and there are a couple things worth noting

While looking for news on how Ngokue was doing at his first day of camp, found this.  One nugget being it appears Santos is our kicker going forward.  

 

[AZ54]

I was hoping Szmyt could at least push Santos better than that.  

Depth chart has already been updated from the earlier release.   Roschon moved up to 3rd string RB. 

WR now has 3 slots (versus where I saw 2 before) with Moore/Mooney/Claypool all listed as starters.  Velus, Scott, ESB round out the top 6.  

There's a long way to go and injuries could be playing a part of this.  For sure Gipson and Vildor are on the way outside looking in.  

https://www.chicagobears.com/team/depth-chart

[Mongo3451]

48 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I was hoping Szmyt could at least push Santos better than that. 

Robbie Gould is doing work at ESPN 1000 and says he's ready whenever called.  He wants to finish raising his family here.

[AZ54]

49 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Robbie Gould is doing work at ESPN 1000 and says he's ready whenever called.  He wants to finish raising his family here.

Pretty sure he has enough money to raise them wherever he chooses.  Keep him on speed dial if needed.  

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

Pretty sure he has enough money to raise them wherever he chooses.  Keep him on speed dial if needed.  

He actually kept his family here while he played in SF.  He's really good on the radio.  He's on with Waddle and Silvey on Friday afternoon.

[adam]

I am re-visiting the bubble positions after the first preseason game:

QB2 - Walker, PJ - looked terrible, worse than Peterman, which is hard to do. This may still be a competition.
CB6 - Jones, Jaylon/Stroman, Greg - This seems like a wider battle than I expected with Stroman, Ojemudia, and Jones fighting with Vildor for the last spot. Vildor seems like a cut candidate.
DE5? - Gipson, Trevis/Lewis, Terrell - Gipson played great, but Lewis had 2 sacks and a forced fumble. I can't see them keeping 5 because there are not enough snaps, so after the top 3, which two stick between Robinson, Gipson, and Lewis? I don't see them cutting Robinson after 1 season. It's crazy how much Poles has stealthily upgrade Edge where starters from 2022 are fighting at the bottom of the depth chart, and all seem productive.
OL9 - Leatherwood, Alex - I guess this spot is going to come down to injuries more than anything. Carter got a ton of snaps at Guard. Kramer got reps at Center. They may still look into bringing in a vet at Guard (Risner?).
WR6 - Jones, Velus - Ouch, this feels like it is now wide open with Pettis, Ford, and even Webster with a shot (1 PR, 1 Rec). I hope Poles doesn't feel obligated to stick with Jones just because of his draft status. This spot is Special Teamer first, WR second, and Velus seems more like a Gadget guy first, which the Bears don't have room for.
S4 - Colbert, Adrian/Thomas, AJ - Williamson will probably end up on the PS, leaving this slot to Thomas (INT), Colbert, or Trahan (INT). The good thing is these guys are all producing, which is great to see for the 4th Safety spot.
RB4/5 - Ebner, Trestan - So Ebner got 3rd team reps, ahead of Roschon and Homer. So I have no clue if they are going to keep Ebner or Homer, but they can't keep both.
 

Any other spots that you see up for grabs? These are the only ones I can think of.

[Stinger226]

They will hid a few players on the practice squad. To many with upside that will not  make the final roster. Lewis and Gipson are going to make the final cut down very difficult at DE. Can Poles get a 7 th rounder for V Jones?

[AZ54]

5 hours ago, adam said:

I am re-visiting the bubble positions after the first preseason game:

QB2 - Walker, PJ - looked terrible, worse than Peterman, which is hard to do. This may still be a competition.
CB6 - Stroman, Greg - This seems like a wider battle than I expected with Stroman, Ojemudia, and Jones fighting with Vildor for the last spot. Vildor seems like a cut candidate.
DE5 - Gipson, Trevis - Gipson played great, but Lewis had 2 sacks and a forced fumble. I can't see them keeping 5 because there are not enough snaps, so after the top 3, which two stick between Robinson, Gipson, and Lewis? I don't see them cutting Robinson after 1 season. It's crazy how much Poles has stealthily upgrade Edge where starters from 2022 are fighting at the bottom of the depth chart, and all seem productive.
OL9 - Leatherwood, Alex - I guess this spot is going to come down to injuries more than anything. Carter got a ton of snaps at Guard. Kramer got reps at Center. They may still look into bringing in a vet at Guard (Risner?).
WR6 - Jones, Velus - Ouch, this feels like it is now wide open with Pettis, Ford, and even Webster with a shot (1 PR, 1 Rec). I hope Poles doesn't feel obligated to stick with Jones just because of his draft status. This spot is Special Teamer first, WR second, and Velus seems more like a Gadget guy first, which the Bears don't have room for.
S4 - Thomas, AJ - Williamson will probably end up on the PS, leaving this slot to Thomas (INT), Colbert, or Trahan (INT). The good thing is these guys are all producing, which is great to see for the 4th Safety spot.
RB4 - Ebner, Trestan - So Ebner got 3rd team reps, ahead of Roschon and Homer. So I have no clue if they are going to keep Ebner or Homer, but they can't keep both.
LB6 - Gates, DeMarquis - this is where they could go with 6 DE's, especially if one can play Special Teams. Baskerville looked pretty good late.

Any other spots that you see up for grabs? These are the only ones I can think of.

Agreed, PJ Walker is just bad.  He was equally bad in the Carolina game I watched last season so it's not just a new scheme.  Besides that his strength is reported to be his understanding of the game yet we see nothing of the sort on the field.  Poles addresses this backup position more aggressively next season and if this team is good that will help attract FA QBs without overpaying.  Or we draft one.  

Vildor is playing for his next job.  Even if he were the 6th best CB (he's not) I can't see us paying a backup that far down the depth chart $2.7mil.  

Gipson vs. Lewis.   I have only rewatched the start of the game but early on Gipson benefited from poor blocking and was able to get in on a few plays.  On at least one play where he was blocked he got stood up and lifted off his feet, something that has happened to him quite a bit in camp (he may be the leader in getting pancaked).  Lewis seemed to handle contact better and win his rushes straight up.  He's not as bendy around the corner as you'd like but he got there.  Again just early impressions I'll try to watch a bit more later on.    

Leatherwood only costs us $2mil this year so I don't think salary will be a big factor in who stays.  

Velus is still in the lead at WR6 but I could definitely see Pettis challenging him in the next 2 weeks.  No to Ford or Webster.    

At safety a lot of press is made when guys just standing in a zone coverage and the QB throws them the ball.  I personally don't care about those INTs.  I'm looking for who reads the routes well and makes the right breaks to defend passes.  All I took away is that Elijah Hicks was doing that better than last year.  The others I'm not so sure about.