Predicting the 53-man roster

[adam]

5 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

They will hid a few players on the practice squad. To many with upside that will not  make the final roster. Lewis and Gipson are going to make the final cut down very difficult at DE. Can Poles get a 7 th rounder for V Jones?

I hope they do because we need all the pass rush help we can get.

On Velus, no clue, I am sure someone would take a flyer on him with 3 years left on his rookie deal.

[adam]

26 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Agreed, PJ Walker is just bad.  He was equally bad in the Carolina game I watched last season so it's not just a new scheme.  Besides that his strength is reported to be his understanding of the game yet we see nothing of the sort on the field.  Poles addresses this backup position more aggressively next season and if this team is good that will help attract FA QBs without overpaying.  Or we draft one.  

Vildor is playing for his next job.  Even if he were the 6th best CB (he's not) I can't see us paying a backup that far down the depth chart $2.7mil.  

Gipson vs. Lewis.   I have only rewatched the start of the game but early on Gipson benefited from poor blocking and was able to get in on a few plays.  On at least one play where he was blocked he got stood up and lifted off his feet, something that has happened to him quite a bit in camp (he may be the leader in getting pancaked).  Lewis seemed to handle contact better and win his rushes straight up.  He's not as bendy around the corner as you'd like but he got there.  Again just early impressions I'll try to watch a bit more later on.    

Leatherwood only costs us $2mil this year so I don't think salary will be a big factor in who stays.  

Velus is still in the lead at WR6 but I could definitely see Pettis challenging him in the next 2 weeks.  No to Ford or Webster.    

At safety a lot of press is made when guys just standing in a zone coverage and the QB throws them the ball.  I personally don't care about those INTs.  I'm looking for who reads the routes well and makes the right breaks to defend passes.  All I took away is that Elijah Hicks was doing that better than last year.  The others I'm not so sure about.   

 

Yeah, Vildor is gone with that amount of cap savings. 

Gipson vs Lewis is one of the storylines, which is great because that is not for a starting position and shows the depth Poles is building.

True on Leatherwood, I am thinking his spot comes down to injuries. If a OT is out then he stays, if Davis is out, they will need a Guard.

For Velus, I am just tracking the touches:
Velus: 2 PRs, 1 target, 1 reception 
Scott: 1 PR, 1 KR, 2 targets, 1 reception
Webster: 1 PR, 3 targets, 1 reception, 1 tackle
Ford: 1 target, 1 reception

I felt like the newer/younger Safeties played well enough to make S4 interesting. 

[Stinger226]

The backup OGs played well J Carter was outstanding and Leatherwood looked better than last yr. Read some articles about Nate Davis, he doesnt like training camp in  his history but came to play when the season started. Doesnt seem like the type of player Poles wouldnt go after but his game tape is very good. 

[adam]

The Athletic released their 53-man projection and the main difference is they are keeping 5 RBs vs 4. 

For me, that is hard to see, if you already have Herbert, Foreman, and Roschon getting carries, is there really much more for Homer and Blasingame AND Ebner?

I think it is going to come down to Ebner vs Gipson/Lewis. One of those 3 are not making the team.

 

For the other bubble positions, they have Jaylon Jones as CB6 over Vildor and company. They have Adrian Colbert over Thomas and Trahan for S4, which is fine to me.

[Mongo3451]

This is from The Athletic.  Looks spot on...

https://theathletic.com/4772928/2023/08/14/chicago-bears-roster-projection?source=user-shared-article

[adam]

Here is a comp from last year to this year. 10 offensive players replaced by 11 new offensive players (currently 1 less Safety, 1 more RB).

Mustipher, Reiff, Griffin, Wesco, Tonges, Pringle, Smith-Marsette for Davis, Wright, Tonyan, Lewis, Johnson, Moore, Claypool are massive upgrades across the board. 

bears53_comp.pdf

[adam]

The front seven facelift is impressive considering they traded for Moore and drafted a OT in the first round, and still did this to the front 7, and improved the secondary at the same time. Smith was the biggest loss, but basically negated by Edmunds, but then you go from Morrow to Edwards, Blackson to Billings, Muhammad to Walker, Watts/Pennel/Jonathan to Green/Dexter/Pickens, Vildor/Jackson to Stevenson/Smith. DHC probably the biggest net loss on the entire team unless someone like Cole or Colbert emerges as a ST superstar. Outside of that, all seem like upgrades.

15 losses replaced by 14 new players (Safety > RB accounts for loss of 1). 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

17 minutes ago, adam said:

Here is a comp from last year to this year. 10 offensive players replaced by 11 new offensive players (currently 1 less Safety, 1 more RB).

Mustipher, Reiff, Griffin, Wesco, Tonges, Pringle, Smith-Marsette for Davis, Wright, Tonyan, Lewis, Johnson, Moore, Claypool are massive upgrades across the board. 

bears53_comp.pdf 95.04 kB · 0 downloads

Interesting to see for how “broken” the oline was last year, they only swapped out two players.  A former first rounder (Rieff) for a current first rounder and Mustipher for Davis.  Who for me is still a question mark. 

1 hour ago, adam said:

I think it is going to come down to Ebner vs Gipson/Lewis. One of those 3 are not making the team

You could make the case neither Ebner nor Gipson making the team.  Gipson could potentially be a trading chip if he keeps producing in the pre-season. 

[Stinger226]

I don't  think Ebner makes the main roster. He can still be on the practice squad. To many other groups that may need an extra body. 

DE: YN, Walker,  Robinson , Green, Gipson and Lewis. I think normally would keep 4. Would will they do there? Robinson could end up being PS material.

[AZ54]

The coaches have to be pleased with how well Carter played at RG.  He played well enough that he will likely be the backup going forward and not Patrick.  That relegates Patrick to backup OC but then how did Kramer perform?   Leatherwood reportedly did well at LG.  I'm not sure about Kramer's performance.  

I realize the value in having a backup OC who can also slide out to OG but since he's joined the Bears Patrick has mostly been injured.  Nor has he played well.  I think he might be on the bubble now.   

If we're keeping 8 OL then they'd have to see if Carter can handle LG.... something to watch for in upcoming practices.    

[Stinger226]

Actually last yr Carter was the backup on the LG spot. If they all play well, that is a good thing. Davis( until this preseason) has been a healthy player over he last 5 yrs. A couple concussions. Jenkins may be past his health issues but that remains to be seen. Have Borom been good enough to be the swing T? Havent really heard much noise on Borom. I think unless Patrick gets hurt he keeps a roster spot. If Cody gets hurt do they really want to stick Kramer in there , I doubt it. 

 

[adam]

7 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I don't  think Ebner makes the main roster. He can still be on the practice squad. To many other groups that may need an extra body. 

DE: YN, Walker,  Robinson , Green, Gipson and Lewis. I think normally would keep 4. Would will they do there? Robinson could end up being PS material.

Robinson would not clear waivers. Ebner might, but some teams have crappy RB rooms.  

It is highly unlikely the Bears keep 5 Edge. Looking back at last year's snap counts, they never suited up more than 4 DEs and only had 3 in Weeks 17 and 18.  There is not enough snaps to go around. 

Same goes for RB, the 3rd RB gets only a few offensive snaps, and the 4th RB rarely gets any. 

It is still wild to me that almost every player that is no longer on the 53-man from last year would even make the 53-man this year. Outside of Roquan, and maybe DHC as S4 and ST, the other 23 players wouldn't even make this year's roster. Gipson is one of those 23 fighting for a final spot on the back end of the roster. I don't think people outside of Chicago understand the amount of turnover the Bears have had. All they see is DJ Moore, Wright, Edmunds, and maybe Stevenson.

 

[adam]

The Bears have had 80% turnover on their 53-man roster since the 2021 opening day roster. 

The only players left from that roster are: Fields, Herbert, Mooney, Kmet, Whitehair, Jenkins, Borom, Johnson, Jackson, Santos, and Scales.

Assuming Gipson and Vildor miss the cut.

 

[Mongo3451]

After thinking about it, I don't think Velus makes the 53.  His football instincts just aren't there.

[AZ54]

14 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I don't  think Ebner makes the main roster. He can still be on the practice squad. To many other groups that may need an extra body. 

DE: YN, Walker,  Robinson , Green, Gipson and Lewis. I think normally would keep 4. Would will they do there? Robinson could end up being PS material.

Robinson is the third best DE.  He’s not going anywhere especially when you consider he’s still ascending.  Green seems like a guy nobody would miss because I can’t think of anyone mentioning his name all through camp nor in the last game.  He may offer more versatility inside like Walker does.  That could mean keeping 4 DTs and 5 DEs.  Especially if they feel ok with Travis Bell on the practice squad.  

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

After thinking about it, I don't think Velus makes the 53.  His football instincts just aren't there.

Unfortunately his competition has similar issues with fumbles and drops:  Pettis and Scott.  

[AZ54]

Listening to Flus today it appears Roschon has moved up to #2 on the depth chart.   I don’t think that’s  firm yet but it sounded as if he’s going to get a good shot at keeping it this week.  

[Stinger226]

It's interesting that the new LB, Mykal Walker, is paid 2.7 mil as a backup. Arguably he is similar to T J Edwards as far as stats. Does he not trust San born or Sewell? Is there more of a injury concern with Edmunds? He could be the third best LB on the team right now.

[AZ54]

26 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

It's interesting that the new LB, Mykal Walker, is paid 2.7 mil as a backup. Arguably he is similar to T J Edwards as far as stats. Does he not trust San born or Sewell? Is there more of a injury concern with Edmunds? He could be the third best LB on the team right now.

It doesn't appear we pay $2.7mil...

"The Bears are now responsible for Walker’s contract year, though that checks in at just $895K."

https://www.profootballrumors.com/chicago-bears-news-rumors

[ASHKUM BEAR]

8 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

It's interesting that the new LB, Mykal Walker, is paid 2.7 mil as a backup. Arguably he is similar to T J Edwards as far as stats. Does he not trust San born or Sewell? Is there more of a injury concern with Edmunds? He could be the third best LB on the team right now.

I think it hints Edmund's might not be available come week 1.  The Bears have been active at bolstering positions with recently acquired starters missing.   These guys should be up to speed in case Edmund's and Davis are not.

LB Mykal Walker

OG Logan Stenberg and Avonte Collins

[Stinger226]

None of these additions are killing our cap and could be early cuts. Since injuries will happen, Poles is prepared for good backups. I totally think, the regime thinks this could be a sneaky good team. Over 10 wins. He acts like it's a good team preparing for a run. M Walker, YN, and move will be brought in.

[adam]

59 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

None of these additions are killing our cap and could be early cuts. Since injuries will happen, Poles is prepared for good backups. I totally think, the regime thinks this could be a sneaky good team. Over 10 wins. He acts like it's a good team preparing for a run. M Walker, YN, and move will be brought in.

At this point, the core of the team is set. At most they will churn the bottom 2-3 slots of the roster. Rarely do any of these new additions matter unless there is a surprise cut, injury, or trade. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

So we should have an idea in the coming days how accurate this was.  My money is Bagent made a good case for QB2.  

[Mongo3451]

12 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So we should have an idea in the coming days how accurate this was.  My money is Bagent made a good case for QB2.  

I really like Bagent.  Fun fact:  his dad is the GOAT of professional arm wrestling, ambidextrously...

[AZ54]

51 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So we should have an idea in the coming days how accurate this was.  My money is Bagent made a good case for QB2.  

Well we know Walker didn't make a good case for himself.  At least while sitting on the bench Walker looked like he was quite comfortable with his guaranteed money. 

Bagent looked okay but as I waited to see any pass beyond 10 yards down field I felt like that meme where the guy is poking something with a stick saying "come on do something".  His pocket presence is surprisingly good.  We have to remember how much Justin struggled with this offense last year and keep that in perspective for what Bagent is doing.  The further downfield you go the more variables there are in the route "reads" based on the coverage.  I think we saw some of that on Bagent's INT where the receiver just stopped cold and didn't even turn around.  

So I agree they let Bagent "lose" the job today and I don't think he did that at all.  My only question now is do we keep 3 QBs?  I'd rather keep 2 and stash Peterman on the practice squad again.  If we lose Fields and Bagent to injury  Walker is not going to save the season any more or less than Peterman.  In fact I'd just as soon take the higher draft pick, especially if we need to draft a QB.   In the meantime that lets us keep another roster spot for Oline depth which we need right now.