The more I think about it (Fields passing yards)

[adam]

The more I look into this, the more I believe Fields is going to easily throw for more than 3500 yards. We are just so tainted by the last two years that we can't see past those.

Trubisky averaged 208 yds/g for the Bears. Even in just a 16 game season, he averaged 3328 yds per season. That includes his rookie year where they barely let him pass.

Trubisky threw for 3223 yds in 2018 (in 14 games), that was 230 Y/G, which would be 3910 for 17 games. So who did Mitch have to throw to? These were his top 7 targets (ARob, Gabriel, Cohen, Burton, Miller, Howard, and Josh Bellamy)! The leader in receiving yardage was ARob with 754! I forgot how bad that offense was because the defense was so good.

Then in 2019, he threw for 3138, in 15 games, that's 3553 in 17 games. His top 7 were: (ARob, Cohen, Miller, Gabriel, Monty, Wims, and Burton). 

Just compare that to the projected Moore, Mooney, Claypool, Kmet, Tonyan, Herbert, Foreman. 

Very few guys from those teams would even make this roster, ARob would be WR4, Cohen would be RB3, and Burton would be TE3, but those 3 are it.

If Fields can't throw for 3K or more, he is just not it. I believe he will but if he doesn't they will have to move on from him because there are zero excuses when you compare the offenses from the Mitch era.

[Stinger226]

Seen a video where QBs in the Shanahan type offense in their 2 nd year averaged. 4100 yards and 33 TDs. There was 3 of them. Matt Ryan was one them, don't remember the other rwo.

[adam]

23 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Seen a video where QBs in the Shanahan type offense in their 2 nd year averaged. 4100 yards and 33 TDs. There was 3 of them. Matt Ryan was one them, don't remember the other rwo.

I just think the bar is too low for us. We are so accustomed to bad QB play that we are celebrating 3K passing yards. If Justin plays 16 of the 17 games, is it really a stretch to think he can't pass for 225 yds per game (3600 for season)?

[AZ54]

The Trubisky comp for yards is valid as a floor especially with a 17 game schedule.  The number one thing all of the best offenses have is big plays.  Without the talent for that you are left dinking and dunking your way down the field.  Even Mahomes in his breakout 2nd season would have a big game but there'd be 3 or 4 WR screens or short crossing routes that would go for 30/40/50 yards.  So he threw for 400yds but almost half were on 4 simple plays w/ a ton of YAC.  Those type of plays also tend to put a defense on its heels and play safer which can open up more easy underneath.  We have the players to get those big plays.  

[Mongo3451]

[ASHKUM BEAR]

2 hours ago, adam said:

I just think the bar is too low for us. We are so accustomed to bad QB play that we are celebrating 3K passing yards. If Justin plays 16 of the 17 games, is it really a stretch to think he can't pass for 225 yds per game (3600 for season)?

Look no further than pre-season week 1. The Bears can block downfield and have speed to take it to the house on any play.  They need to pose the deep threat to keep teams from cheating and once they have that the offense has no bounds 

[Stinger226]

Dave Wannsted always said you need to throw at least 2. deep passes every half to keep the defense honest. With our WRs , I suspect 5 or 6 a game.

[Mongo3451]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Dave Wannsted always said you need to throw at least 2. deep passes every half to keep the defense honest. With our WRs , I suspect 5 or 6 a game.

I would love that.  It is also Justin's strength...