Week 1 Official Game Thread - GB @ CHI, 09/10, 3:25PM CDT, CHI -1 O/U 43.5, FOX

[adam]

We made it! Week 1 is almost here. Are you ready for some football.

This is one of those polarizing games where a win could propel the Bears to something big, but a loss at home to the Packer without Rodgers will be a tough loss to recover from.

The Packers are 0-5 in any game where Love had 5 or more passing attempts. In the two games where he had substantial playing time, they lost both and he put up these total numbers:

Totals - 29-51, 324 yds, 56.8%, 6.4 Y/A, 2 TD, 3 INT

One game average - 14.5-25.5, 162 yds, 56.8%, 6.4 Y/A, 1 TD, 1.5 INT

I could care less about preseason or how he has looked in practice. The above stats are who he is until he shows that he is not. If that is the QB the Bears are playing next Sunday, it's a Bears win. If he plays substantially better, then the Bears will be in a firefight.

 

My initial projection is Bears 24-17. Both teams get at least 2 TDs, Bears get a 3rd that ultimately decides the game. The Packers have the ball with a chance to tie and turnover on downs to seal it. 

 

[Mongo3451]

Let's go!!!!!!

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Come on Bears - let this be the start of a dominant era of Bear football!!! 

[BearFan PHX]

53 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Come on Bears - let this be the start of a dominant era of Bear football!!! 

Im with you. I dont want single super bowl visits because a double doink went thru. That's how you go to and lose a Super Bowl.

I want to see us dominate. I want people afraid to play us. i want to assume 12 victories at the beginning of the season, and be in the fight with a few other teams for a Super Bowl win in multiple seasons.

I think Poles is trying to build something sustainable that could be like that. it wont be this year. But Im with you 100% - I dont want a lucky fumble to give us wins - i want to dominate teams. I had a hit of this in 1985, and i am looking for that next fix. We havent had anything like that since. But I do think we could become a top 5 team across multiple years.

I cant wait to watch them build it this year, and then add more ingredients next year, and watch the whole thing build up into a REAL football team.

Lets go!

[adam]

DJ Moore vs GB:

2020-12-19 > 6-131 yds
2019-11-10 > 9-120 yds

Averaging 7.5 receptions and 125 yards a game as the WR1 (both games in GB), not bad.

 

Khalil Herbert in his only start against GB:

19-97 yds, 5.1 YPC, 1 TD, 2 rec, 15 yds.

 

If Herbert is over 100 total yards on offense and Moore is over 100 yards receiving, I like our chances.

[adam]

and if GB loses and Love plays bad, talk about a potential franchise defining moment, he may never recover.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

6 minutes ago, adam said:

and if GB loses and Love plays bad, talk about a potential franchise defining moment, he may never recover.

Meanwhile in Green Bay, they predict the Bears are “terrified” of Jordan Love because of the unknowns. They cite his ‘spectacular’ preseason stats of 21/33 for 183 3 TDs as one reason.  Meanwhile all Fields did was throw 5/9 for 180 yards and 2TDs.  

https://wisportsheroics.com/bears-fans-nfl-are-already-terrified-of-green-bay-packers-quarterback-jordan-love/#google_vignette

[adam]

10 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Meanwhile in Green Bay, they predict the Bears are “terrified” of Jordan Love because of the unknowns. They cite his ‘spectacular’ preseason stats of 21/33 for 183 3 TDs as one reason.  Meanwhile all Fields did was throw 5/9 for 180 yards and 2TDs.  

https://wisportsheroics.com/bears-fans-nfl-are-already-terrified-of-green-bay-packers-quarterback-jordan-love/#google_vignette

It is comical for me, because they had every opportunity to turn to Love last season after a 3-6 start. Instead, they stuck with Rodgers, who got them all the way to 4-8 (1-2 in next 3 games).

People don't realize how bad it was. Rodgers, Mr. Chicago didn't have a 300-yd game, and only had one game over 260 yds (291 in a loss). He had 94 rushing yards, but took 258 yards in losses from sacks. So it's great that he threw for 3695 yds, but his net total yards were 3531 in 17 games. Fields had 3026 in 15 games. Per game averages 207 and 201 respectively.  Total TDs, Rodger 27 in 17 games, Fields 25 in 15 games.  Rodgers TDs per game: 1.58 vs Fields TDs per game: 1.66. 

Love couldn't beat Rodgers out or force GB to sit him. If Love was that good, and they didn't put him in over Rodgers, their little douche coach is a wuss. 

[adam]

One last thing Bears fam, the Bears defense was TURRIBLE last year (channeling my inner Charles Barkley). The next best defense (LVR - 31st) was half as bad as the Bears. So if the defense can get to 25th, it will feel like a top 15 defense because just going from 32 to 31 is the same statistical gap than 31 to 26. With 6 new starters, and natural improvement from Gordon and Brisker, it is almost impossible to repeat their futility. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

4 minutes ago, adam said:

Love couldn't beat Rodgers out or force GB to sit him. If Love was that good, and they didn't put him in over Rodgers, their little douche coach is a wuss. 

I think although Rodgers is in a better place with the Jets (HC Saleh is a damn good defensive coach) the odds are against them with a desperate Bills team needing to do well before the window closes, a Belichick coached Patriots team and an improving Dolphins team.  And thats just in their division.  To make it long into the playoffs they have to get past teams like KC and Cincy.  I don’t think Rodgers is up to the task.  

[AZ54]

47 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Meanwhile in Green Bay, they predict the Bears are “terrified” of Jordan Love because of the unknowns. They cite his ‘spectacular’ preseason stats of 21/33 for 183 3 TDs as one reason.  Meanwhile all Fields did was throw 5/9 for 180 yards and 2TDs.  

https://wisportsheroics.com/bears-fans-nfl-are-already-terrified-of-green-bay-packers-quarterback-jordan-love/#google_vignette

Wow, throwing 33 passes in preseason is a lot of work for a starting QB.  Especially one who, as their fans are saying, can already do it all.  Most starters are in the 10-20 range.   Or to put it more bluntly Love threw as many passes as PJ Walker, and 4 more than Tyson Bagent.  

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/stats/player/passing/nfl/preseason/qualifiers/?page=2&sortcol=att&sortdir=descending

[Bill]

This has been a long time coming for me.  Been a long time since I had this much faith that they are headed in the right direction.  And not just for next year.  I'm only watching things that hype the Bears going forward till Sunday, no more nay sayer shit.   Swifty Sports?   on U tube has a great video about JF.  He makes it sound like he's the 2nd coming of some QB, no make that the first Fields!!  No reason they can't go 9-8.  Barring of course injuries.

[Bill]

Oh, and for whipped cream topping.  Mr. Rogers is no longer around.   And in my 20 year FF league.  It's the first time he did not get drafted.  Small drop of rain in the ocean, but a great smile and chuckle for me!

[AZ54]

Now we know what their job 1 is on defense.  It's going to be interesting to see what this means early on in the game.  Is it just rhetoric or are they going to commit 8 to stopping the run and leave guys 1on1 in coverage?   That's twofold because if they don't think the Bears can pass protect you just do run blitzes and take your chances down the field.  This is where Justin's ability to make the quick read and throw will come into play.    

 

[BearFan PHX]

right, and it's also how a tough running game opens up the screen passing game and play action. If they want to try to shoot the gaps with run blitzes theyre gonna be tired, and were gonna burn them with QB scrambles, screens and end arounds, not to mention throwing the ball downfield to Moore and the rest.

[adam]

This Christian Watson hype is crazy. People make him out to be a legit WR1. Does he have great speed, sure, but otherwise, where are the numbers? The most receptions he had in one game was 6 for 49 yards. He only had 3 games over 50 yards receiving.

He was targeted less than Lazard, Jones, Tonyan, and Doubs last year, and only 7 more than the ancient Randall Cobb. 

Against the Bears, Watson had 3-9 yds, and 3-48 yds, and 1 Rec TD. He did have a 46 yard TD run, but that was when the Bears had traded or shutdown their entire defense. Even with that run, that's 51 yards per game against the Bears. Moore torched the Packers with scrub QBs, and Watson couldn't break 50 yards receiving with a HoF QB?

[Stinger226]

What has changed now is instead of AR taking them down in closing minutes to win the game, Jordon Love will throw an interception late to lose the game.

[adam]

In Week 13 last season, the Bears had a 19-10 lead in the 4th quarter against GB (the last time they faced each other). Even after a GB TD that made it 19-17, Fields completed a 49 yard pass to Practice Squad WR N'Keal Harry that put the Bears in FG range, but Santos gets a 40-yard FG blocked, and GB goes on to score 11 more points against a Practice Squad level defense to win 28-19.

The Bears current defensive starters that didn't play in that game or were not on the team yet include: Ngaokue, Walker, Billings, Edmunds, Edwards, Stevenson, Gordon, Brisker, and Jackson (9 defensive starters). The only two defensive starters that played were Justin Jones and Jaylon Johnson. This is a completely different defense.

Then on offense, the Bears scored 19, should've been 22, but that didn't have Moore, Tonyan, Herbert, Foreman, Mooney, Scott, Wright, Davis, Feeney, and Taylor (WR/PR).

With ESB, Pettis, and Harry getting targets, and Darryton Evans getting RB2 carries, Fields still finished 20-25, 254 yds, and had 6-71 and 1 TD on the ground for 325 all-purpose yards. The biggest issue was the 2 INTs, one when ESB forgot how to run a route and the 2nd was with 44 seconds, down by 9 (to Pettis). The odds that those throws happen again are unlikely if they are going to Moore and Mooney. Santos also missed an XP which would've made the last drive a potential game tying drive.

Even though the Bears held a 4th quarter lead, this game was not one of the 8 decided by one score or less where the Bears went 1-7. Another reason to be optimistic.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I'm not going to lie - right now all of my inner mind is telling me, buckle up, this is not going to be the fun season I was hoping for. I really hope I am wrong and the Bears surprise but trying to manage expectations.  This really is about young players emerging and growing (which would hopefully indicated we have a front office that can find talent) and ideally us finding a QB.  

With that said - if Fields isn't the guy, but the other young parts are looking good, etc, than I at least can have hope that we have the right people in charge, the right picks, and will get it right.  That said - I'm hoping for the home run, we hit on QB and the picks.  

[adam]

2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I'm not going to lie - right now all of my inner mind is telling me, buckle up, this is not going to be the fun season I was hoping for. I really hope I am wrong and the Bears surprise but trying to manage expectations.  This really is about young players emerging and growing (which would hopefully indicated we have a front office that can find talent) and ideally us finding a QB.  

With that said - if Fields isn't the guy, but the other young parts are looking good, etc, than I at least can have hope that we have the right people in charge, the right picks, and will get it right.  That said - I'm hoping for the home run, we hit on QB and the picks.  

Ngaokoue, Walker, Billings, Dexter, Pickens, and Green with Edmunds, Edwards, Stevenson with some improvement from Brisker and Gordon to go with Johnson and Jackson. That is not the 32nd best defense. The "worst" starting player is either Billings or Jones, but both have started for other teams. The defense put the offense in some terrible situations last year. Almost always trailing, bad LoS. 

On offense, Fields is 800 passing yards from being a top 5 QB and perennial MVP candidate. There are 3 QBs in NFL history to pass for over 2K and run for over 1K. Vick, Jackson, and Fields. Only Jackson has a 3K/1K season, and that is not out of the question for Fields with the addition of Moore, a full offseason with Claypool and a better TE2 in Tonyan.  To get those 800 additional yards, Fields would need about 50 more passing yards per game. I think that is attainable. 

If you go to 3K / 800, Kyler Murray, Wilson, Cunningham, and RG3 join the list where Fields and Vick drop off. Most of these seasons were Pro Bowl appearances, some with MVP votes, and RG3 winning OROY. I am surprised Wilson and Murray didn't get more hype in those years. 

No QB has ever thrown for over 3200 with 1K rushing yards. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, adam said:

No QB has ever thrown for over 3200 with 1K rushing yards. 

Fields could easily do that…barring injury.  

[adam]

38 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Fields could easily do that…barring injury.  

I know, that's the crazy thing.

Just say he misses one game, he would need 200 passing yards and 62.5 rushing yards a game in 16 games.  If he plays in all 17, he would only need 188 passing yards and 59 rushing yards per game to hit those marks. At least on the passing side, the bar is set too low in my opinion. If he can't throw for 3500 yards, in Year 3, with a true WR1, then he never will.

[adam]

With Alexander more than likely lined up against Moore, either Claypool or Mooney will have their CB3 covering them. I think Tonyan is going to have a big game, he is either going to get a LB, S, or CB4 on him, seems like a mismatch.

 

[adam]

 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

If he can't throw for 3500 yards, in Year 3, with a true WR1, then he never will.

100%, and this is the biggest question of the 2023 Bears season.