AZ54 Posted September 6, 2023 Report Share Posted September 6, 2023 I think Adam has brought this up but in the first couple minutes of this video listen to where many of the players who started games last year for the Bears are today. As I listened to that I realized that I literally have no clue about our defense. We all talk about the Oline but I kinda know what that is because there are many of the same faces there as last year plus Nate Davis and the rookie Darnell Wright. Wright at least got enough snaps preseason for me to have a good enough idea that he'll be fine. He's already an upgrade over the version of Larry Borom that started wk 1 last year at RT. Likewise Braxton Jones is also improved over the wk 17 version we last saw, we just don't know how much. Lucas Patrick, even if I don't like him, is still an upgrade over Mustipher. Overall I have some idea what they will look like. The WRs and RBs I have a good idea what to expect with Claypool being the wildcard. TEs we saw what they can do. Fields was stringing together a lot of good practices with some bad mixed in but overall there was a sense that we have a passing game this preseason. We saw good glimpses of the running game here and there. We put up points in a lot of games last year so I feel I know the floor for the offense and it should move upward from that. The defense on the other hand? I don't think I ever saw Edmunds and Edwards at LB in the preseason. The safeties were banged up and we saw very little of Jackson w/ Brisker. Jaylon Johnson missed a lot of time. On the Dline we got a good glimpse of starters Jones and Billings plus the 2 rookie DTs. At DE we saw nothing from starters Walker and Ngakoue. DomRob had a good preseason, Rasheem Green much less so. The D was so bad last year that combined with all the preseason injuries it is literally out of the frame when trying to sort out what we have this year. What does this look like when the pieces are finally together on the field at the same time? So many of the players we relied on are either not on a roster, or buried on a depth chart. Overall I have no clue what this defense brings to the table. I don't see how the Packers can know either. What or who do they try to exploit in coverage? Do we need 20pts to win, 25pts, or 30pts? I think the offense is definitely good for 20pts, and 25pts doesn't seem too unreasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted September 6, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 6, 2023 For those wondering about Jordan Love. There have been 242 QBs since 1980 to have 85 or fewer passing attempts in their first 3 seasons. Only Aaron Rodgers (0.4%) has surpassed 30K passing yards in his career. Three QBs (1.2%) have passed for more than 10K yards in their career (Rodgers, Gannon, and Bono), and only Rodgers did it with his original team. So the odds of hitting on Rodgers and Love becoming another Rodgers is like being struck by lightning twice in a lifetime. If I screen for less than 180 passing attempts in their first 3 seasons, the number jumps to 322 QBs, and that would add 6 QBs to the 10K list: Ryan Fitzpatrick (34K), Cassel (17K), Garrard (16K), Jimmy G (14K), Fiedler (11K), and Hoyer (10K). Interestingly, 3 QBs that backed up Brady made the list. So 2/322 (Rodgers/Fitzpatrick) hit 30K passing yards (0.6%), and 9/322 hit 10K passing yards (2.8%) in their careers. Again, only Rodgers becoming a franchise QB with his original team (unless you consider Garrard as a franchise QB). Literally the only precedence for Love becoming a franchise QB is Rodgers. Also, the Packers elected to extend Love for his 5th year, instead of taking the 5th year option. So if they had faith in him, why would they not extend him for more than a year? Now they have to give him a new contract, and if he does become good, they are going to need to find 40M-50M really quick. The Giants had more faith in Daniel Jones than GB has in Love. I think that is very telling. My assumption is Love will be an average NFL starter, think Mac Jones. He won't be good enough to win them games by himself, but he will do just enough to make them look competitive. That is the NFLs 7-9 win purgatory. I really hope that happens. I don't want them flaming out this year because of how good the 2024 QB class is already looking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted September 6, 2023 Report Share Posted September 6, 2023 If Love was that good don’t you think they’d have kept Adams last year and let Rodgers walk? Their team would be in much better shape than they are now. Young starting QB plus legit WR1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted September 6, 2023 Report Share Posted September 6, 2023 23 hours ago, adam said: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted September 6, 2023 Report Share Posted September 6, 2023 Out of the gate and both safeties are “limited”. Ugh… One redeeming point is that Brisker is the only one listed as “questionable” on ESPN’s depth chart and not Jackson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted September 6, 2023 Report Share Posted September 6, 2023 8 hours ago, adam said: I don't want them flaming out this year because of how good the 2024 QB class is already looking. Right. This is the nightmare scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted September 6, 2023 Report Share Posted September 6, 2023 Dont want everyone to get to excited but Watson and Doubs didnt practice yesterday. Trending not to play. So Dillion and Jones all day plus dont count out rookie TE Musgrave. The spot to watch is Gary against Darnell Wright. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted September 7, 2023 Report Share Posted September 7, 2023 4 hours ago, Stinger226 said: Dont want everyone to get to excited but Watson and Doubs didnt practice yesterday. Trending not to play. So Dillion and Jones all day plus dont count out rookie TE Musgrave. The spot to watch is Gary against Darnell Wright. Don’t care. We have equivalent issues at Oline and safety (to a lesser extent) but I’m hopeful Brisker can play. Based on the article they could be missing all 3 top WR. Still don’t care. https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2023/09/06/half-of-packers-wrs-dealing-with-hamstring-injuries-to-open-week-1-practice/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted September 7, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2023 14 hours ago, Stinger226 said: Dont want everyone to get to excited but Watson and Doubs didnt practice yesterday. Trending not to play. So Dillion and Jones all day plus dont count out rookie TE Musgrave. The spot to watch is Gary against Darnell Wright. Gary is also coming back from injury, so who knows how many snaps he will get or how explosive he will be. Watson has some big play potential, but I never saw him as a WR1. Doubs is good, but probably a WR3. I don't know how much drop off there is from those two to other guys at this point. It is going to come down to stopping Aaron Jones and his stupid screens and wheel routes. I can see Love using him a ton. Gotta stop the run and gotta stop the screen game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted September 7, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2023 1st TD, who you got? I feel like the highest probability is one of the RBs (Herbert or Foreman), or Fields. However, Kmet, Claypool, and Moore are also up there. The good thing is, the Bears have red zone options 3-4 more than they had last year, so the offense should be improved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted September 7, 2023 Report Share Posted September 7, 2023 My guess is first TD is DJ Moore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted September 7, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2023 24 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said: My guess is first TD is DJ Moore. That would be awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted September 7, 2023 Report Share Posted September 7, 2023 I'll guess it's someone less prominent as their defense focuses on the obvious big names and stopping the run. Give me Robert Tonyan for 6pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted September 7, 2023 Report Share Posted September 7, 2023 https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2023/09/07/packers-wr-romeo-doubs-returns-to-practice-thursday-wr-christian-watson-still-out/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted September 7, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2023 49 minutes ago, AZ54 said: https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2023/09/07/packers-wr-romeo-doubs-returns-to-practice-thursday-wr-christian-watson-still-out/ If Watson doesn't play and the Bears don't win, it is going to be a long season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted September 7, 2023 Report Share Posted September 7, 2023 Everybody important is practicing but Nate Davis is not for personal reasons. Getting a divorce ? Someone ill? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted September 7, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 7, 2023 13 minutes ago, Stinger226 said: Everybody important is practicing but Nate Davis is not for personal reasons. Getting a divorce ? Someone ill? Death in the family? On 9/6/2023 at 12:53 AM, AZ54 said: What or who do they try to exploit in coverage? Do we need 20pts to win, 25pts, or 30pts? I think the offense is definitely good for 20pts, and 25pts doesn't seem too unreasonable. In the passing game, they will go after Stevenson or the LB/S in coverage. I doubt they target Johnson or Gordon much. They will motion Watson or Doubs away from those guys. 24 pts feels like the minimum. 4-5 sustained scoring drives. On defense, the Bears need some turnovers and sacks. The game will come down to the turnover ratio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted September 7, 2023 Report Share Posted September 7, 2023 Game broadcast in AZ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted September 7, 2023 Report Share Posted September 7, 2023 There’s definitely something going on with Davis. https://x.com/cassiecarlsontv/status/1699880773371793815?s=46&t=KrpJmhSTc4DI1sACtjisOQ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted September 7, 2023 Report Share Posted September 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: There’s definitely something going on with Davis. https://x.com/cassiecarlsontv/status/1699880773371793815?s=46&t=KrpJmhSTc4DI1sACtjisOQ Whatever it is, his body language shows it's very emotional for him and he's torn about leaving the team/practice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted September 7, 2023 Report Share Posted September 7, 2023 Davis is a concern. Talk out of Tennessee is that Vrabel "hates" Nate Davis the football player and was glad to see him go. Money was not the reason, because they signed his replacement to a similar contract. It had also been said, that he will not suit up unless he is 100%. As a whole, I'm extremely concerned about our OL. At the end of the draft weekend, I thought we were mostly covered with the drafting of Darnell Wright the prior signing of Nate Davis. So, now we have Wright dealing with an ongoing ankle issue as a rookie. Davis had one padded practice the entire of season. Patrick is oft injured and not our first choice at center. Cody has a brace on his right hand and replaced Jenkins, who I am on record with not trusting to be a professional. Lastly, Jones is the only Iron man for the second year in a row. 80% of our OL is starting the season below optimal health and continuity. Fu@k! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASHKUM BEAR Posted September 7, 2023 Report Share Posted September 7, 2023 58 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said: Davis is a concern. Talk out of Tennessee is that Vrabel "hates" Nate Davis the football player and was glad to see him go. Money was not the reason, because they signed his replacement to a similar contract. It had also been said, that he will not suit up unless he is 100%. As a whole, I'm extremely concerned about our OL. At the end of the draft weekend, I thought we were mostly covered with the drafting of Darnell Wright the prior signing of Nate Davis. So, now we have Wright dealing with an ongoing ankle issue as a rookie. Davis had one padded practice the entire of season. Patrick is oft injured and not our first choice at center. Cody has a brace on his right hand and replaced Jenkins, who I am on record with not trusting to be a professional. Lastly, Jones is the only Iron man for the second year in a row. 80% of our OL is starting the season below optimal health and continuity. Fu@k! I heard the Bears signed another G/C to the practice- Matt Farniok formerly with Dallas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 It's Packer week!!!!! https://www.facebook.com/reel/840271004073328?mibextid=UT8rzV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted September 8, 2023 Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 14 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said: I heard the Bears signed another G/C to the practice- Matt Farniok formerly with Dallas I think Poles is planning on Jenkins not being reliable and bosting the IOL. Feeney is getting ready to be our everyday OC. Jenkins will get one more shot. JaTre Carter is the backup plan if Davis continues a problem. The game is going to come down to who runs the ball better and wins the turnover battle. One big play will determine who wins the game. Fields legs will win it for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted September 8, 2023 Author Report Share Posted September 8, 2023 After watching what many have projected to be 2 playoff teams and KC potentially winning another Super Bowl, my confidence in the Bears surprising people just went up. Comparing the offenses to the Bears, Moore is arguably the best skill position player amongst the Bears, Chiefs, and Lions. Herbert is the best RB (just based on his numbers from last year), and if Mahomes can run like that against the DET defense, Fields is gonna cook. Kmet would be TE1 on the Lions and TE2 on KC. Even Foreman would be RB1 on KC and a better RB2 than Monty. Mooney and Claypool make for a great WR2/3 combo. KC doesn't even have any good WRs. Outside of Brown, DET has a lot of castoffs that never amount to anything other than 1-2 good games per year. On defense, the only player that stood out was Hutchinson, and even though he looked like a super productive player, he had no official stats, not a single tackle, pass defended, sack, or INT. That is pretty remarkable for someone that is getting so much hype. In some ways, his pursuit will get him in a lot of trouble against a QB like Fields. If he can't keep contain against Mahomes, he won't keep it against Fields. Bears are going to shred the Packers. 5-6 30yd plays. 30 something to something in the teens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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