Week 1 Official Game Thread - GB @ CHI, 09/10, 3:25PM CDT, CHI -1 O/U 43.5, FOX

[adam]

I don't like to use PFF grades, but I will when they support what I am seeing. Billings and Walker are low key sleeper acquisitions. Billings with the 16th ranked IDL last year and Walker was 24th. Every team has 2x Edge starters, so the top 64 are normally starting caliber. Walker is in the top 3rd of that group. Depending on formation you can have 1-2 IDLs starting, so at least 48, if not more are starting IDL, Billings was also a top 3rd player. Then you add Dexter and Pickens rotating in with fresh legs, and you have a very solid DL room.

Compare that to the dudes that they replaced, well into the 100s (near bottom of league), so the defense is going to be improved. 

They also went from one of the worst LB corps in the league (after Roquan trade), to arguably the best (Edmunds - 5th, Edwards - 6th, Sanborn - 41st). The defense is going to be better.

Then they have Gordon replace Vildor in the slot, which will be a massive upgrade because Vildor was targeted early and often.

Lastly, they were already one of the better Safety duos, but now in their second year together, they should improve. 

So where are the holes on this defense? Justin Jones is arguably the worst starter, and he is at least serviceable with Dexter/Pickens behind him.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, adam said:

After watching what many have projected to be 2 playoff teams and KC potentially winning another Super Bowl, my confidence in the Bears surprising people just went up.

Comparing the offenses to the Bears, Moore is arguably the best skill position player amongst the Bears, Chiefs, and Lions. Herbert is the best RB (just based on his numbers from last year), and if Mahomes can run like that against the DET defense, Fields is gonna cook. Kmet would be TE1 on the Lions and TE2 on KC. Even Foreman would be RB1 on KC and a better RB2 than Monty. Mooney and Claypool make for a great WR2/3 combo. KC doesn't even have any good WRs. Outside of Brown, DET has a lot of castoffs that never amount to anything other than 1-2 good games per year. 

On defense, the only player that stood out was Hutchinson, and even though he looked like a super productive player, he had no official stats, not a single tackle, pass defended, sack, or INT. That is pretty remarkable for someone that is getting so much hype. In some ways, his pursuit will get him in a lot of trouble against a QB like Fields. If he can't keep contain against Mahomes, he won't keep it against Fields. 

Bears are going to shred the Packers. 5-6 30yd plays. 30 something to something in the teens. 

Oddly my take away after watching that game is that we're in a better spot than I expected and our roster is going to be competitive.   

Detroit didn't impress me at all.  Their zone coverage was sloppy and there was almost no help for Hutchinson in pass rush.  Hutchinson himself didn't look much improved from what he was in college, although he's stronger and better with the long arm.  I just didn't see the variety in rush tactics you'd expect from the 2nd pick in the draft in .  I'd gladly take him on our roster and we'd be better with him but he looks like a guy who will take advantage of below average OTs and be much less successful with above average OTs.    

Regardless, my biggest takeaway is that Hutchinson would look even better if he had help.  There were a lot of good draft options for pass rush help, why wouldn't Detroit have use their 1st Rd draft picks to add to their front instead of grabbing a small RB or off-ball LB?   That would have helped their coverage too.  

Detroit's offense only put up 14pts.  Their Oline looked ok but struggled to open running lanes for most of the game.  Goff looked comfortable running things but as always if you can get him moving around he'll miss some throws.   It's week 1 so things clean up rapidly once the season starts, we'll see if that applies to Detroit.  

One last thing:  Watching KC missing two elite talents shows just how balanced the rest of their roster is compared to the NFL, even with the best QB in the NFL.  

 

[Stinger226]

Nate Davis is full practice. The only injury spot was Cole.

[adam]

No Watson: 

 

[adam]

Bears with no Jenkins, Packers with no Watson. Seems like the playing field got evened out a little bit.

Beyond Aaron Jones, Watson was the #2 threat in their offense. Now the Bears have to worry about stopping Jones/Dillon on the ground and in the short passing game, and Doubs/Musgrave in the passing game.

If the Bears can't beat that team, at home, then it's going to be another long season. In reality, the Bears should beat them handily (double digits).

[BearFan PHX]

Looks like this is shaping up to be a game in which Brisker is gonna shine. I expect to see him closer to the LOS than average for us on Sunday.

Also, with Kelce out, you really saw how having so much of your cap tied up in the QB depletes your depth and options.

[adam]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Looks like this is shaping up to be a game in which Brisker is gonna shine. I expect to see him closer to the LOS than average for us on Sunday.

Also, with Kelce out, you really saw how having so much of your cap tied up in the QB depletes your depth and options.

They drafted Skyy Moore last year and Rashee Rice this year, signed Valdes-Scantling and traded for Toney, but that is their WR room as they traded Hill and let Juju and Hardman walk. Last year it really was Kelce and Juju. Valdes-Scantling was their 2nd best WR with 42 receptions for 687 yards. That is more like a #3, but Kelce takes 25% of the receptions and targets. I just don't understand why teams don't bracket Kelce, the odds of any of the other players to succeed one on one consistently is very low. Pacheco is their lead back and he is more of scatback than a true 3-down RB. 

However, this is what your team looks like once your QB's massive contract hits. Wait until Burrow's finally kicks in, guys like Higgins and Mixon will be gone. They will have Burrow and Chase, and a whole bunch of rookie contracts and minimum cap hit free agents. 

[BearFan PHX]

3 minutes ago, adam said:

However, this is what your team looks like once your QB's massive contract hits. Wait until Burrow's finally kicks in, guys like Higgins and Mixon will be gone. They will have Burrow and Chase, and a whole bunch of rookie contracts and minimum cap hit free agents. 

Yup, and why Fields has to be more than 'pretty good' to get that big contract.

[Mongo3451]

2 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Yup, and why Fields has to be more than 'pretty good' to get that big contract.

I don't think he'll be here if he's not good enough to get that contract in two years.

[AZ54]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Nate Davis is full practice. The only injury spot was Cole.

In the NFL you really can't expect to head into week 1 any better than this.  I include Jenkins being on IR and that's just for 4-6 wks.  

[Stinger226]

The score will be 33-13 with TDs from 

fields, Kmet, Tonyan and Foreman.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I don't think he'll be here if he's not good enough to get that contract in two years.

for sure, and honestly, the decision point will be the 23/24 offseason, because if you dont extend him then, everyone knows whats happening. If it's not gonna be Fields, we will draft a QB in the first round next year.

And this is all just on Fields himself. The stage is set. He has enough pieces around him now. It's all on him. I would love to see him ascend to a top5 QB. He has the tools, he just needs to put it all together. And he has this season to do it.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

8 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

The score will be 33-13 with TDs from 

fields, Kmet, Tonyan and Foreman.

Im not sure it’ll be that many TDs but for some reason I’ve been thinking Marcedes Lewis will score. 

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Im not sure it’ll be that many TDs but for some reason I’ve been thinking Marcedes Lewis will score. 

I realize that is an outrageous prediction but it will be the only game of the year I can do it because we havent seen them play yet. More realistically it will be 23-20 but I like the first pick better.  I think Getsy will scheme an opportunity for former Packers like Tonyan and Lewis to take a cheap shot at their former team.  i would do that. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Tonyan is questionable for tomorrow. Wasn’t yesterday, but now he is.

 

[adam]

19 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Tonyan is questionable for tomorrow. Wasn’t yesterday, but now he is.

 

Looks like he got hurt during practice. They released Cole, and elevated Carlson and Gates. Presumably to replace Tonyan and Cole for Week 1. Greg Gabriel expects them to bring Cole back after the game. 

[adam]

On a side note, I got involved in a Twitter thread and uncovered some interesting info. So after Thursday Night there was all this discussion about how Mahomes looked without Kelce. Then PFF grades came out and people used that to support their argument that Mahomes had no help.

Yet Fields has never gotten that benefit because the team hasn't won. However, the situation with Fields is much worse than I even expected. The Bears were dead last in Receiver grades in 2022, and for his career, Fields receivers grade out at 62.4, well under the league average. He has only started 5 games out of 25 where his receivers were league average or above. So in only 20% of his starts were his receivers at least average, and in 2022, he only had 2 starts (NE and DET) where receivers were average. 

Now you add DJ Moore, a healthy Mooney, a Claypool that knows the playbook, Tonyan, and Scott, and that grade should go way up. That alone is going to make Fields better, there is a clear correlation between those values. People say that the QB has to make the players around him better, but as shown by Toney, the players have to help out the QB by just being average. 

If the Bears get average receiver play, they are a 10 win team, that's what the numbers say. Fields will improve exponentially without actually improving. If he actually improved himself at the same time, the league is in for a big surprise.

[adam]

BTW, besides terrible coaching by Nagy, Trubisky also had a subpar receiving unit that was bottom 10 every year except for 2018 when they were 17th. 

Check out CHI vs KC receivers from 2017 - 2022, then consider how Mahomes looked on Thursday night. Trubisky was the fall guy and he had his flaws, but he could've been a better, more mobile Mac Jones if he had receivers. 

2017 - 23rd / 10th KC
2018 - 17th / 3rd KC
2019 - 28th / 7th KC
2020 - 20th / 4th KC
2021 - 26th / 11th KC
2022 - 32nd / 2nd KC

Fields had the WORST receivers in 2022 (and one of the 5 worst units in the last 5 years), yet somehow pulled some of those games out of his ass. Now with at least a league average receiving corps, if nothing else improved, that is several wins added.

The defense has 6 new starters and 5 new key rotational players. That is 11 out of 16 main cogs on the defense with several others back from injury. They don't have to be great, just league average, and the Bears take a massive leap in wins in 2023. 

[adam]

I am changing my game score. My initial projection was Bears 24-17. Without Watson, the Packers are not going to get the chunk plays they need to score, and Love will have to throw to less capable receivers leading to an extra turnover. So I am giving the Bears an extra score and taking one away from the Packers. Final score:

Bears 30-13

Moore goes over 100 yards receiving. Fields throws for 250+ and runs for 50+. The triple headed monster of Herbert-Foreman-Johnson rush for a combined 150+ yards. The Bears defense gets 2 sacks and 2 turnovers.

[BearFan PHX]

so youre absolutely correct Adam that Fields hasnt had receivers or protection. Any QB would look bad in that situation.

But logically, that means a good QB would look bad and so would a bad QB.

Fields has to prove that he is a good QB. He has an excellent argument that he is a good QB and was surrounded by trash, but now that he has a better supporting cast, he still has to go out and do it. Nothing youve said "proves" it either way - good or bad.

So basically you're saying you believe in him. And 65%, I agree. I just need to see it on the field this year to know. I believe in him, but I wouldn't bet my house on it (yet?).

[adam]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

so youre absolutely correct Adam that Fields hasnt had receivers or protection. Any QB would look bad in that situation.

But logically, that means a good QB would look bad and so would a bad QB.

Fields has to prove that he is a good QB. He has an excellent argument that he is a good QB and was surrounded by trash, but now that he has a better supporting cast, he still has to go out and do it. Nothing youve said "proves" it either way - good or bad.

So basically you're saying you believe in him. And 65%, I agree. I just need to see it on the field this year to know. I believe in him, but I wouldn't bet my house on it (yet?).

I am not 100% sold on Fields, but the slider has moved closer to 100 from 50, say between 75 and 80. 

Basically what he did last year, especially in that 10 game stretch, was pretty herculean. An average QB would've looked a lot worse. It was not like he was going to throw for 250 yards a game to ESB, Pettis, and ISM with the patchwork offensive line. The lack of volume killed him. The Bears 2022 Receiving Group is most comparable to the 2018 Bills and 2018 Jaguars in terms of grades. 

The 2018 Bills had Zay Jones, McCoy, Foster, and Benjamin as their top 4 receivers. A rookie Josh Allen threw for 2074 yds and ran for 631. Terrible receivers and low volume. 

The 2018 Jaguars had Westbrook, Yeldon, Moncrief, and Cole as the top 4 receivers. Bortles threw for 2718 yds and ran for 365. 

Look at those receiving groups, that is what Fields had last year. 

[adam]

btw 19 hours to kickoff!

[BearFan PHX]

5 hours ago, adam said:

btw 19 hours to kickoff!

lol I know! I havent been this excited for a season in a long time.

As to what you said above, 75% to 80% And Im somewhere above 65% - we are on the same page. And I know we are both rooting for it to happen.

Its such a young and new team - it might look messy for a few weeks and still end up ok. Big game tomorrow and I wonder if our team or the Packers are ready for it. I suspect none are, and some weird sloppy crap might happen early. In other words - make SURE you make firm tackles in the first 10 minutes.

[Stinger226]

This will be the cumulation of the best off season in recent history and we now get to see what our future holds for us. 

We need to see improvement in Justin Fields

We need to see our run defense vastly improved

We need to see what ( Take the north and never get it back) looks like

I want to see what 2/3 of the  rebuild of the new regime loos like

I want 33-13 but will accept any kind of victory

 

[adam]

LETS GO!