Are people sleeping on Fields?

[adam]

So when you look at Fields career stats, they look terrible, historically bad from a passing perspective for a QB that has played in as many games as he has in his first two years. However, he had a 10-game stretch last season (decent sample size) which I think is his floor going into this year.

That stretch was Week 4 to Week 14 last year, 10 games in a row that he played in. He only had one game below 50 yards rushing (47) and one game below 150 yards passing (123). Here are his totals:

147-229, 1751 yds, 64.2%, 13 TD, 6 INT, 116-905, 7 TD

If you take those numbers, compute the per game average, then apply it to a full 17-game season, he would end up with:

Passing: 250-389, 64.2%, 2977 yds, 22 TD, 10 INT, Rushing: 197-1540 yds, 12 TD

His passing yards would jump 700, his Comp% up 4%, TDs would be up 5, INTs would be down 1, and his rushing numbers would be redonkulous! 1540 rushing yards (400 more than he had), and 4 more rushing TDs. So in total, 9 more TDs! This is with the skeleton crew they were rolling out with him every week against good defenses. Here is the gauntlet he went thru:

NYG 9-7-1, MIN 13-4, WAS 8-8-1, NE 8-9, DAL 12-5, MIA 9-8, DET 9-8, ATL 7-10, GB 8-9, PHI 14-3

The worst team were the Falcons at 7-10, every other team had 8 or wins. There were 12 teams other than the Bears to win 7 or fewer games last year. Fields only played 1 of them in this stretch. That is pretty remarkable. 

I really think people are underestimating Fields and the bar for passing is too low. I am thinking he will be in the 200s for passing yards every game, and probably over 50 yards rushing. That would put him over 3300 passing yards and 950 rushing depending on if he plays 16 or 17 games.

There has only been one player in NFL history to hit 3K/1K, that was Lamar in his MVP season. The next closest were (over 3K/800):

2. Cunningham - 1990 - 3466 passing, 30 TD, 942 rushing, 5 TD (MVP-2, OPOY-2, PB)
3. Wilson - 2014 - 3475 passing, 20 TD, 849 rushing, 5 TD (PB)
4. Murray - 2020 - 3971 passing, 26 TD, 819 rushing, 11 TD (PB)
5. Griffin III - 2012 - 3200 passing, 815 rushing (his rookie year, OROY, PB)

What I find interesting is that Kyler Murray had 37 TDs that in 2020 and didn't sniff an MVP vote with almost 4800 combined passing and rushing yards. That was a really impressive season. There have only been 33 times where a QB threw for more than 4800 yards, so Kyler's season is a top 50 of all time.

In Lamar's MVP season, he had a combined 4333 yards and 43 total TDs. So Murray had almost 500 more yards and 6 fewer TDs. 

With an improved offense and defense, I really feel like Fields is set for an amazing season, and will probably be the first 3200/1000 player in NFL history. 

[Mongo3451]

Everyone should be sleeping on Fields until he shows that he can get rid of the ball.  People compare him to Lamar, but Lamar has never hesitated to pull the trigger or run.  Fields needs to cut the sacks and batted balls in half this season.

[adam]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Everyone should be sleeping on Fields until he shows that he can get rid of the ball.  People compare him to Lamar, but Lamar has never hesitated to pull the trigger or run.  Fields needs to cut the sacks and batted balls in half this season.

Interestingly enough, Fields was 4th from last for "Time to Throw" in the NFL last year, exactly the same as Lamar was in 2019, 4th from last for TT. 

In 2018, the last 4 QBs were Josh Allen, Jackson, Wilson, and Watson.

In 2020, Jalen Hurts was last, Allen 3rd from last, Jackson 4th, and Wilson 5th

In 2021, Hurts was last again, Fields 7th, Jackson 5th, Allen 8th. 

Last year Watson was last, Fields was 4th, Jackson 5th, and Wilson 7th.

So mobile QBs in general will hold the ball longer.

 

I totally agree on taking sacks, throwing the ball away behind the LOS, and reducing fumbles and turnovers in general.

[adam]

Lamar Jackson averages 174 yds per game for his career. The last two seasons, he had 16 TDs and 17 TDs.

Last season Hurts threw 16 TDs. Allen threw 20 in his 2nd season.

Fields threw 17 last season. He is right there with all these other mobile QBs.

[BearFan PHX]

Fields may be holding the ball longer because he is indecisive as is popular to say. It may also be because of his mobility and running for his life because of breakdowns in protection, the average is skewed.

But the guy is not throwing interceptions. So maybe no one was open.

This is the question and set of reasons / excuses we've been throwing around for a couple of years. No situation will be perfect for a QB, but we have given him more protection on the line, and an upgrade at every WR position (former #1 Mooney went to #2, Claypool to #3 etc)

So now excuses are over. I will not be shocked if Fields blossoms and ascends to a top 5 QB. i will not be shocked if Fields is still mediocre.

That's what this season is all about. Im rooting for the guy to ascend to greatness, but this is the year to do it. There is no next year to answer this question.

This is the year of Fields' final judgement at QB. And it begins by matching up against Green Bay. Perfect.