Fields-O-Meter

[adam]

2 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

Dude is 12 for 12 with three tds. This is great!

This didn't age well, lol. He played great when there was nothing on the line. Once it was crunch time he had a fumble for a defensive TD, a intentional grounding with under a minute remaining, and then threw the dagger INT to lose it.

He played his best game as a passer, but even in the 2 minute drill, he still does everything too slow. If they lose on Thursday night, you may see Bagent on the following Sunday.

[killakrzydav]

No chance you see Bagent this early

[adam]

Fields had his best passing game as a pro:

28-35, 80%, 335 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, QB Rating 132.7

He now has 79-123, 64.2%, 861 yds, 7 TD, 5 INT, QB Rating 86.8 on the season, that puts him on pace for 3,659 yds, 30 TDs, and 21 INTs. 

This week's QBR - 69.7 (the fumble and INT dropped him 20 pts). After 3 weeks under 25, this was a great improvement. The fumble sucked, but honestly, if you watch the play, they allow the left Edge to go in untouched straight at Fields who is turning into him. Terrible play design, and that is not the first time that happened this season. On the INT, him and Kmet were on two different plays, Fields thought he would continue his route across the field and Kmet thought he was supposed to square up the defender at that point on the field. 

That game bumped his season QBR to 36.0, which gets him out of last and he is now in front of Bryce Young (24.9), Zach Wilson (26.8), Ryan Tannehill (28.2), Desmond Ridder (29.1), Kenny Pickett (29.3), and Joe Burrow (33.6). 

He needs to string together some above average passing games. 

[adam]

The best scenario was Fields balls out and plays well above average and shows that he is a franchise QB, so the Bears can use or trade picks early in the first round next year for a king's ransom. They could keep one and trade one, and gain multiple firsts again. 

The next best scenario is Fields plays decent enough to keep his trade value high, and the Bears can flip him for a 2nd or a 3rd, draft Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. and use extra draft capital to shore up the trenches.

The worst case scenario is that Fields plays bad, but the Bears somehow win a few games, which would hurt their draft position and Fields trade value. 

There are a few others in between, but those are sort of the extremes and the middle. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Zach Wilson (26.8)

He’s having quite the game against KC.  Currently tied up 20-20. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I know they lost - but Fields played extremely well today. He was making confident throws, reading the d, and just looked good. 
 

Why the Bears got scared and stopped letting him pass late in game is beyond me. They got super conservative and paid for it. 

[BearFan PHX]

Fields put up some good numbers but guys were running WIDE open with no defenders on them and Fields was STILL late getting them the ball.

Several times Moore would catch the ball and then two or more defenders would crush him. Those were zone defenders (equidistant) and you will see Moore was open for a while. It took Fields time to find him and get the ball there, thats why there were no yards after the catch.

The numbers today were good, but any NFL QB (including Tyler Bagent) would have had a first half just as good if they had that much time to throw and WRs so wide open.

I dont think you saw good JF, i think you saw terrible Denver defense.

[adam]

8 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Fields put up some good numbers but guys were running WIDE open with no defenders on them and Fields was STILL late getting them the ball.

Several times Moore would catch the ball and then two or more defenders would crush him. Those were zone defenders (equidistant) and you will see Moore was open for a while. It took Fields time to find him and get the ball there, thats why there were no yards after the catch.

The numbers today were good, but any NFL QB (including Tyler Bagent) would have had a first half just as good if they had that much time to throw and WRs so wide open.

I dont think you saw good JF, i think you saw terrible Denver defense.

I thought it was a little bit of both. Fields was at least making the right decisions and actually throwing the ball. All the former QBs turned YouTube Content Creators were praising him, so I will take their word for it. 

The fumble was inexcusable because he could've just tucked it and taken the sack instead of trying to throw it with a guy in his face. Interesting that there was no penalty on the play as the defender tackled him around the neck. If Fields is not such a strong dude and just flails back like every other QB in the league, it's probably a penalty. 

Here are two screenshots. Defender cannot tackle around the neck or head area, and can't launch themselves into the QB......?

[adam]

Fields has raised his DVOA to -31.1%, which is pretty incredible considering where it was at. He is no longer last in the NFL. That distinction belongs to Daniel Jones, followed by Bryce Young, Sam Howell, and Desmond Ridder.

One or two more decent games and he will be in the middle of the pack and out of the QB cellar. 

[madlithuanian]

Fools gold last week?

 

This article below highlights what I thought I saw....JF1 looked great when man projection was on and struggled w zone in the second half.  

If the article is correct, every defense we face will go into zone and force JF1 to deal.  I'll be curious how Thursday goes.

https://www.dabearsblog.com/2023/reviewing-justin-fields-game-against-denver

[BearFan PHX]

FWIW DJ Moore is a zone beating genius. He is the master of spacing.

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, madlithuanian said:

Fools gold last week?

 

This article below highlights what I thought I saw....JF1 looked great when man projection was on and struggled w zone in the second half.  

If the article is correct, every defense we face will go into zone and force JF1 to deal.  I'll be curious how Thursday goes.

https://www.dabearsblog.com/2023/reviewing-justin-fields-game-against-denver

If you combine the analysis of Fields' reading zone coverages with the comments about his INT throwing to Kmet late in the game  -- it makes me wonder if we have too many options embedded in our WR routes.  I'm also considering how I saw Kmet react in backing away when the DB turned with him on the front side of that route.   

If I know my receiver has 2 or 3 options on how he runs his route based off what the DB does (not just the type of coverage zone vs. man).  Then I have to hold the ball long enough to see what that DB does at the top of the route stem, and then how quickly the WR reacts to it.  On that INT the ball is already in the air while Kmet still has his back to Fields.  The DB sees the ball and reacts to it breaking over the top of the route.  Kmet then reacts to the DB and backs out of the spot.  Fields says Kmet did the right thing based on the coverage.  By default the timing of all that means Fields can't throw the ball until the DB declares what he's going to do.  

Conversely if I'm a DB in zone coverage I'll be mixing up the way I do that all game long.  I can change pre-snap leverage, post-snap leverage, run under the break, over the top of the break.  All just designed to make FIelds wait another 0.5s to 1s to throw.  

There is no way for me to know this, nor if it even makes sense.  But if that were true, and if I were the coach I'd be simplifying things and removing a lot of those options.  Or maybe trim it down on read 1 and 2 and let the 3rd or 4th options react to coverage and possibly capture a big play on a breakdown if Fields has time to come back to them.   Fields has to be able to throw the ball to a receiver as he is making his cut, just like he did on the INT, not afterward.  

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, AZ54 said:

If you combine the analysis of Fields' reading zone coverages with the comments about his INT throwing to Kmet late in the game  -- it makes me wonder if we have too many options embedded in our WR routes.  I'm also considering how I saw Kmet react in backing away when the DB turned with him on the front side of that route.   

If I know my receiver has 2 or 3 options on how he runs his route based off what the DB does (not just the type of coverage zone vs. man).  Then I have to hold the ball long enough to see what that DB does at the top of the route stem, and then how quickly the WR reacts to it.  On that INT the ball is already in the air while Kmet still has his back to Fields.  The DB sees the ball and reacts to it breaking over the top of the route.  Kmet then reacts to the DB and backs out of the spot.  Fields says Kmet did the right thing based on the coverage.  By default the timing of all that means Fields can't throw the ball until the DB declares what he's going to do.  

Conversely if I'm a DB in zone coverage I'll be mixing up the way I do that all game long.  I can change pre-snap leverage, post-snap leverage, run under the break, over the top of the break.  All just designed to make FIelds wait another 0.5s to 1s to throw.  

There is no way for me to know this, nor if it even makes sense.  But if that were true, and if I were the coach I'd be simplifying things and removing a lot of those options.  Or maybe trim it down on read 1 and 2 and let the 3rd or 4th options react to coverage and possibly capture a big play on a breakdown if Fields has time to come back to them.   Fields has to be able to throw the ball to a receiver as he is making his cut, just like he did on the INT, not afterward.  

I think is exactly it. It's what Fields means when he says he is thinking too much, or has too much coaching.

unfortunately, its the NFL and you can't play vanilla and win. you must perform with this level of complexity.

so what it really means is the the great QBs DO think of all that stuff, and for wahtever reason, Fields cant.

[AZ54]

14 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think is exactly it. It's what Fields means when he says he is thinking too much, or has too much coaching.

unfortunately, its the NFL and you can't play vanilla and win. you must perform with this level of complexity.

so what it really means is the the great QBs DO think of all that stuff, and for wahtever reason, Fields cant.

Or maybe the greatest coaches are figuring it out ahead of time.

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

But if that were true, and if I were the coach I'd be simplifying things and removing a lot of those options.  Or maybe trim it down on read 1 and 2 and let the 3rd or 4th options react to coverage and possibly capture a big play on a breakdown if Fields has time to come back to them.

Those options eliminate themselves very quickly through the "if/then" process.  The receiver and QB are trained to read the same thing.  If Fields is unsure, he is supposed to move on.

[AZ54]

28 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Those options eliminate themselves very quickly through the "if/then" process.  The receiver and QB are trained to read the same thing.  If Fields is unsure, he is supposed to move on.

Yes but it should be an early read and decision on the coverage and route.  Not late like we saw from Kmet.  I should add it's entirely possible Kmet was wrong and Fields just covered for him.  

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, madlithuanian said:

Fools gold last week?

 

This article below highlights what I thought I saw....JF1 looked great when man projection was on and struggled w zone in the second half.  

If the article is correct, every defense we face will go into zone and force JF1 to deal.  I'll be curious how Thursday goes.

https://www.dabearsblog.com/2023/reviewing-justin-fields-game-against-denver

Fields isnt perfect and still has some growing to do but we will get to see it live and in person. I have seen many QB experts and most have favorable comments. Schmitz is just another opinion and we will see if he's right.

[adam]

Fields cannot close out games. That may be a bigger issue than his issues against Zone. If Zone/Man was his only issue, that would show up in any quarter.

 

Here are his 1st-3rd quarter stats:

303-491, 61.7%, 3647 yds, 22 TD, 12 INT, 7.4 Y/A

4th quarter stats:

127-220, 57.7%, 1326 yds, 9 TD, 14 INT, 6.0 Y/A

 

Also, 18 of his career 26 INTs have come in his own zone. He only has 1 RZ INT, which is really good, but 18 picks in your own zone is killer. That is basically 18 scoring opportunities for the opposing team without the need to gain a yard. 

For some reason his pucker factor is too high in his own zone and in the 4th quarter. Basically when there is pressure on him to do something, he fails. 

 

[AZ54]

Why I think Fields is better using one play:  Kmet's TD at 43s.

He takes his drop and there is pressure from both sides, even Young is almost touching him as he throws the ball.  Yet Fields never moved off his spot and waited for Kmet to cross the field.  For those who might say he throws late...I'll disagree because he's waiting for Kmet to enter the window between the pass rushers so the ball can't get knocked down.   He clearly knows the pressure is there too because as soon as the ball is gone he flinches and steps fwd away from Young.   

I've seen multiple examples of this in both the Broncos game and Wash.  I think this play captures the improvement best because a) it's in the redzone where it's more difficult to read a defense, and b) more tempting to just bolt the pocket when it's not there right away.  I didn't see this confidence in the play call (meaning he knows what will happen and when) earlier in the season.  

 

 

[AZ54]

Why I think Fields is better using just one more play:  Cole Kmet's TD against Denver.  

He's starting to buy time with his feet.  He seemed to do this well early on in his career but then last year just took off running more.  This play is very much what you see from Mahomes.  So much so that you have to wonder if after the KC game he didn't tell himself I'm going to go do that.   

In this play with this much green space in front of him I fully expected him to just sprint for the goal line.  He did that against Detroit last year.  Even Kmet seems to pause briefly at the goal line as if he's thinking he might need to block someone.  Then sees Fields flatten his path toward the sideline at which point he starts to drift backwards as the defense moves forward toward Fields.  

Beyond this play I've now seen in two games multiple drop backs where Fields has been much better sliding around the pocket.  Or sliding around pass rushers outside the pocket while keeping his focus down field.  

After he sort of called out the coaching and said he was thinking too much I expected him to doing the opposite and just taking off on the run.  

 

 

[Stinger226]

9 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Why I think Fields is better using just one more play:  Cole Kmet's TD against Denver.  

He's starting to buy time with his feet.  He seemed to do this well early on in his career but then last year just took off running more.  This play is very much what you see from Mahomes.  So much so that you have to wonder if after the KC game he didn't tell himself I'm going to go do that.   

In this play with this much green space in front of him I fully expected him to just sprint for the goal line.  He did that against Detroit last year.  Even Kmet seems to pause briefly at the goal line as if he's thinking he might need to block someone.  Then sees Fields flatten his path toward the sideline at which point he starts to drift backwards as the defense moves forward toward Fields.  

Beyond this play I've now seen in two games multiple drop backs where Fields has been much better sliding around the pocket.  Or sliding around pass rushers outside the pocket while keeping his focus down field.  

After he sort of called out the coaching and said he was thinking too much I expected him to doing the opposite and just taking off on the run.  

 

 

That's a Mahomes type play. As the OL gets healthy, he will have more time to make positive plays. Its a plus he has this in him. The key to JF1 is his own confidence.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

5 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

That's a Mahomes type play. As the OL gets healthy, he will have more time to make positive plays. Its a plus he has this in him. The key to JF1 is his own confidence.

It takes time that Bear fans have little patience for. I hope he keeps it up because having 41 different starting QBs over 20 years of waiting for one to blossom stinks.  We finally have a GM that knows how to build.  Injuries so far are shadowing this but it will show.

[Stinger226]

23 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

It takes time that Bear fans have little patience for. I hope he keeps it up because having 41 different starting QBs over 20 years of waiting for one to blossom stinks.  We finally have a GM that knows how to build.  Injuries so far are shadowing this but it will show.

Ditto

[adam]

Fields QBR up to 44.9, now 26th. A couple of more games like the last two and he will leap into the top 15. 

He now has a 95.4 QB Rating (14th).

PFF Grade: 74.4 which is between Herbert and Cousins which is 12th in qualified starters

DVOA hasn't updated yet, but he should get a huge bump there too.

 

Right now Fields has a higher passer rating 95.4 to 92.4, PFF Grade 74.4 to 72.9 over Jalen Hurts. Fields has 11 passing TDs to Hurts 5 (thru 4 games).

[AZ54]

Why I think Fields has not improved in one play:   We got a TD here at 1:35s in the video to close the game.  The TD was nice but this pass was late and as you will see documented in other QB analysis videos it's not the only example.   Fields must continue to improve his decision making and release timing on these 5yd routes.   

20s into this video is a quick screen pass to DJ which might be the quickest I've seen Fields flip his feet and throw.  Maybe there is change starting to happen but he cannot continue being late on these short routes.  

I'm left thinking we have a good QB for intermediate and deep routes.  Give him pass protection where those plays can develop and voila we get TDs.  Give him pressure where he has to work the short routes quickly and we get drives that stall.  It's not the end of his development as all QBs even the great ones have had aspects of their game they needed to improve upon for years after they entered the league (see Drew Brees).  Plus Fields can offset the lack of an effective short passing game with his running ability.   

He may never be a QB in the Manning/Brady style who can quickly slice and dice a defense. He could be more in the Drew Brees/Roethlisberger style where they need protection good enough to work the deeper routes.  Remember Sean Payton saying how critical interior pass protection was for Brees, and how good the Saints were at that for many years.  Roethlisberger often bought his own time when he was young, as can Fields but still thrived best with more time to throw.  

(link won't embed so you'll have to follow to the site)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVGs_V8aVoQ