Fields-O-Meter

[Stinger226]

Im on X and man is this a hot topic and vey evenly divided. Someone did a poll of 4000 fans and 60% want to keep Justin. Lets face it fans opinions dont count , its what Poles does. What is best for the future of the Bears? the question should be, what gets us more wins next year? Continue building the roster, then the big questions, new coaches, new QB? 

Im glad that I dont have to make that decision.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I'll say this - I think the safest way to making the playoffs in the next 2 years is to keep Fields, trade down slightly from #1 (if you get it) and take best available Non QB and get more assets, and than continue to draft talent and build up the rest of the team. I think if Bears do that even remotely decently, this is a playoff team for the next 2 years. 

However - I think once you get to year 3 - you are either now looking yourselves in the mirror and are in a much tougher spot, cause you are now starting to pay Justin 50M per year and the talent around is not there and he isn't good enough to bring up the rest or you are moving on from Justin and basically starting back at square one looking for a QB (but now you aren't picking at the top of the draft and aren't in a position to get that QB without mortgaging the future).  But I do think staying with Justin and continuing to stockpile talent everywhere else gets you into the playoffs the next 2 years.

I don't think you win a superbowl in that timeframe - unless Fields becomes a top 7 guy and you really nailed it on the other picks. But again - that will quickly fleat unless he's the elite guy.  With that said - taking a QB at 1/2 - the Bears ARE NOT going to make the playoffs next year - but the team could accelerate pretty quickly in the following year, but we are probably still going to be picking in the 5-15 range of the draft in '24, ideally you are in contention for a playoff spot in '25, and looking like a top team for years to come in '26.  

But I think those are the two timetables out there and if you are Poles - I get the pressure and desire of - hey, I go make the playoffs for a couple years, I have bought myself time to figure other things out and come up with new options.  

The in-between is to go with the make the playoffs, take a QB in round 2 (I bet you one of the guys will drop - just like Will Levis dropped this year). A QB in that round doesn't apply the same pressure to Fields and franhcise, but could earn that job in '25/'26 and put you in a better spot.  

[adam]

I would say this last game was a + for Fields. The numbers weren't mind boggling, but the offense scored 3 TDs and 3 FGs, so 6 scoring drives. No turnovers, and now the 3rd straight without an INT, which is the first time in his career that he has done that. He hit a few MoF throws, missed a few, but none were high risk. I don't remember a single INT worthy throw which is also notable for him.

So 2 out of 3 for Fields with 4 to play. I would like to see 2 great games out of the last 4 and no stinkers. The other two can be ok, just don't be the reason the team loses. If he can do that, his last 9-10 games will look really solid and he is going to make it be a really tough decision for Poles.

[Stinger226]

He has shortcoming but also has special talent. Can i say the best running QB in the league? I think so. He is improving and if he is getting better at not turning the ball over, that's huge. When they interview opposing coaches, the first thing they say is how dangerous he is to scheme against. We lose that with a rookie QB and if you compare a rookies growing pains to his improvement, what might be best for the next two yrs is to retain Justin. The best QB-WR combo in the league is Justin and Moore according to passer rating. 

Now if there is a generational QB in this draft, Poles will probably take him. The problem is the one they call that doesnt look like that under scrutiny. If we take a QB with the #1 pick he will get more money than Justin makes next year. 
The 5 th year  option will cost 25 mil which with 2 more yrs of increased cap space will be a cheap price. 

I still think drafting a prospect after our first 2 picks will give us the best situation going forward. We have 2 yrs to develop a QB and still retain Justin's upside. We will probably get another second round pick in a trade back , maybe at that point or later. Several examples of later picks thriving in the NFL right now. Prudy, Howell, Browning, plus Hurts and Wilson are still in top half of the league. Dont forget the upside of Bagent with a couple yrs of development. We are a better team with 3 potential starters on our roster for 2 more yrs than the  prospect of what teams with injured QBs are going thru now. 

[adam]

3 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

He has shortcoming but also has special talent. Can i say the best running QB in the league? I think so. He is improving and if he is getting better at not turning the ball over, that's huge. When they interview opposing coaches, the first thing they say is how dangerous he is to scheme against. We lose that with a rookie QB and if you compare a rookies growing pains to his improvement, what might be best for the next two yrs is to retain Justin. The best QB-WR combo in the league is Justin and Moore according to passer rating. 

Now if there is a generational QB in this draft, Poles will probably take him. The problem is the one they call that doesnt look like that under scrutiny. If we take a QB with the #1 pick he will get more money than Justin makes next year. 
The 5 th year  option will cost 25 mil which with 2 more yrs of increased cap space will be a cheap price. 

I still think drafting a prospect after our first 2 picks will give us the best situation going forward. We have 2 yrs to develop a QB and still retain Justin's upside. We will probably get another second round pick in a trade back , maybe at that point or later. Several examples of later picks thriving in the NFL right now. Prudy, Howell, Browning, plus Hurts and Wilson are still in top half of the league. Dont forget the upside of Bagent with a couple yrs of development. We are a better team with 3 potential starters on our roster for 2 more yrs than the  prospect of what teams with injured QBs are going thru now. 

Fields has some special traits that no other QB has, which is his wildcard. So if he can just be average everywhere else, he is a top 10 QB. I would say he is top 15 right now, so unless Williams or Maye can be top 5, you upgrade at WR2, Edge2, Center, DT, and FS and run this back.

I would love the Raiders to trade Crosby, #8 ,a 2034 2nd, and a 2025 first for #1 to take Williams. That would give the Bears the best Edge group in the NFL, you can shed salary with Jackson and Whitehair, then draft WR, Center, DT, and FS. Where would the holes be on the roster at that point? One of the best secondarys, arguably the best LB corps, with new DT and Crosby + Sweat, Dexter, and Walker, the DLine would be pretty damn good.

On offense, Moore+Rookie WR+Kmet+Herbert+Foreman+Johnson+ OLine with new Center + Fields/Bagent? 

I don't see any holes or weaknesses. Also if you bring in 3 blue chippers (Crosby, 2x 1st rounders), you just improved compared to other teams who are lucky to get one of those upgrades.

Can you imagine this same team with Crosby (or similar vet), 2x first rounders, and maybe a top 40 2nd rounder?

[Stinger226]

5 minutes ago, adam said:

Fields has some special traits that no other QB has, which is his wildcard. So if he can just be average everywhere else, he is a top 10 QB. I would say he is top 15 right now, so unless Williams or Maye can be top 5, you upgrade at WR2, Edge2, Center, DT, and FS and run this back.

I would love the Raiders to trade Crosby, #8 ,a 2034 2nd, and a 2025 first for #1 to take Williams. That would give the Bears the best Edge group in the NFL, you can shed salary with Jackson and Whitehair, then draft WR, Center, DT, and FS. Where would the holes be on the roster at that point? One of the best secondarys, arguably the best LB corps, with new DT and Crosby + Sweat, Dexter, and Walker, the DLine would be pretty damn good.

On offense, Moore+Rookie WR+Kmet+Herbert+Foreman+Johnson+ OLine with new Center + Fields/Bagent? 

I don't see any holes or weaknesses. Also if you bring in 3 blue chippers (Crosby, 2x 1st rounders), you just improved compared to other teams who are lucky to get one of those upgrades.

Can you imagine this same team with Crosby (or similar vet), 2x first rounders, and maybe a top 40 2nd rounder?

Stop that kind of talk, I could have a heart attack thinking about that team. We do need to draft a swing OT to finish that OL. 

[BearFan PHX]

Crosby and Sweat would be amazing, but in terms of pacing your salary cap, it's more likely we take a guy like Dallas Turner or Laiatu Latu with our second first rounder. That way as one gets older the other is peaking, and their contracts are not both coming due huge at the same time?

[adam]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Crosby and Sweat would be amazing, but in terms of pacing your salary cap, it's more likely we take a guy like Dallas Turner or Laiatu Latu with our second first rounder. That way as one gets older the other is peaking, and their contracts are not both coming due huge at the same time?

Oh yeah, you can interchange any vet that would come along in a trade. It could also be an additional first (in 2026). 

With a trade the Bears should get a similar deal to Moore's, so blue chip vet, top 10 2024 pick, 2024 2nd, and 2025 1st. That adds 2 blue chippers and a solid starter, then you still have the Bears 1st rounder which is the 3rd blue chipper. Then you sign one more in FA (Center maybe), and this team literally has no holes. That's when you can pick for luxury and true BPA. 

[adam]

Fields had a 65.3 QBR for this game, (6th in the NFL this week), and his full QBR is up to 48.3 (50 is average), so he is right there. One more good game and he will be over 50 again. His PFF grade was a 72.4, 4th best on the team for the Lions game. 

These are great reaffirming stats (objective) and grades (subjective) compared to the tape. He was solid as a passer and made a few epic scrambles that turned losses into gains. He only took one sack that was on him when he held the ball too long. Everything is trending in the right direction. Less turnovers, less sacks, getting the ball out quicker on more throws, completing some throws over the middle. He is checking all the boxes, now we need to see it again.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Crosby and Sweat would be amazing, but in terms of pacing your salary cap, it's more likely we take a guy like Dallas Turner or Laiatu Latu with our second first rounder. That way as one gets older the other is peaking, and their contracts are not both coming due huge at the same time?

I think of it more from - when we make the trade - we should get a blue chip player as part of it and whether we are keeping Fields or not - we still have a couple years until his cost would become truly exorbitant - so we are still in a window where cap wise we can spend a bit more on guys like a Crosby (who are under contract). If we did it - hopefully it is for a blue chipper with a very fair deal (kind of like DJ Moore) - but I do agree it would probably be more likely it was someone on the other side of the ball (i.e defense / 3 tech). 

The alternative is - Bears get 3 1st rounders out of the trade out of #1 (which is certainly possible).   

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I watched the game and my view of the game was even more convinced to move away from Fields.  I just don't think he plays within the confines of the offense. With that said - he is physically the most dynamic QB in the league. Him and Josh Allen to me are the two most physically superior QB's in the NFL.  So I get if the Bears just want to bet on the physical and leadership qualities that Justin has and figure the rest of the game will come to him.  

To be honest - the Bears having the #1 pick is what makes this hard. If the Bears didn't have the 2 picks or were picking at 8 and 14 - I would be pretty square in the camp of stick with Flus & Fields and just keep adding talent.  But when you have the #1 overall pick - you have to ask - do I go QB. And if I go QB - than I probably need to change HC so I align the HC and QB's clock (doing otherwise is a mistake).  

In reality - I think the Bears are in a win-win situation as long as they draft well. 

Scenario 1: Keep Fields - Trade #1 for Top 10 #1 in '24, Next Year #1, '24 2nd Rounder, '25 2nd Rounder, & 1 Blue Chip Player (or a '26 1st rounder).

In this scenario - continue to build a very good football team around the QB.  Just watching that Eagles / Cowboys game - Dak and Hurts are good (and how good is a debate we can have) - but they have a TON of talent around them.  Both have strong olines and historically good rushing attacks - they also have deep wide receiving corps (their WR room is 3X the Bears room - which at this point is basically Moore and everyone else).  Cowboys have Cedee, Gallup, Cooks plus a strong TE.  Eagles have good TE play, AJ Brown, Devontae Smith, etc.  Both teams have good defenses too.  

1st Round: You draft a blue chip wide out (potentially you are talking about MHJ still depending on how much you move back) and draft an olinemen (or double down on weapons).  Or you draft a 3 Tech and an Olinemen and draft a wideout in Rd2 and spend money on Tee Higgins and the Vikings Dlinemen.  Or the blue chipper you get on the Line is a Max Crosby via a trade with the Raiders. 

Free Agency: Resign JJ & Sign a couple impact players - think Tee Higgins, Vikings Dlinemen, FA center

Rest of the Draft: Best available - continue to build depth - try to identify a young center prospect and a safety to replace Jackson.  

Scenario 2: Draft QB @ #1 overall - Pick Playmaker or Oline with other Bears pick.  Trade Fields to Raiders, Seahawks, Falcons or anyone else and ideally get 2 2nd Rounders.  Hire new coaching staff.

In this scenario - you still have the goal of building best football team, but now you reset the QB clock and are actually handing over a decent set of keys to your rookie QB.  This isn't trading the farm and putting the rookie QB in a terrible situation with a poor line, no skill talent, etc. This is very much the opposite.  Reality is the bulk of my off-season would stay the course of the above scenario - other than I'd probably be a bit more aggressive to sign more blue-chip players via free agency, however, there is a balancing act here as we will have hired a new coaching staff which means there will be more turnover.  Yes the defense is trending favorably - but a new HC will have new people and new philosophies.  Some players will fit, some won't.  Turnover will definitely happen - it always does - new coaches have new favorites and use certain players to send examples.  

This gives you another shot at getting a true franchise QB (I'm not there yet with Fields) vs. just a good or solid QB (which right now is the most I would be willing to bet on Fields becoming).  

Quite frankly - I feel very good about either scenario. I still lean to Scenario 2 - because I just don't see Fields playing enough QB.  But my god - if he does make progress, heck, even if he doesn't make progress, if having more weapons and better talent around him makes it easier for him to make the "vanilla" plays all while adding more dynamic weapons to maximize his playmaking ability (both the deep ball and his ability to run) - than in some ways that alone changes the game.  

Trend: My trend was squarely in the draft a QB camp a month+ ago. It has trended to being closer to 60/40 draft a QB at this point (so momentum has been trending more favorably towards Fields).  

[Stinger226]

Fields is trending on X today. Usually with Bears topics you get 4-10 thousand responses, right now Fields has 77.5 thousand hits. 

[adam]

This is a pretty good way to slice it. Now we just need the volume and consistency to follow. 

 

[Stinger226]

I seen that, its all about consistency and he is trending the right way. I seen an interview talking Justin and suggested they give him more time. That was Terry Bradshaw and said he didnt take off until his 5th year. He said Chuck Noll almost got rid of him the year before but his QBs coach talk him into 1 more year.  He won 4 SBs.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

This is a pretty good way to slice it. Now we just need the volume and consistency to follow. 

 

I dunno though. The numbers don't tell the whole story?

A lot of these yards and completions are coming on broken plays, and the concern with Fields is playing within the design of the plays? So for example, you could have a QB who is throwing better than last year on broken plays, but that doesnt necessarily say that he is learning to read defenses better?

I did see him do better this week at that, so there is hope, but I dont think those stats take that into consideration?

[adam]

15 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dunno though. The numbers don't tell the whole story?

A lot of these yards and completions are coming on broken plays, and the concern with Fields is playing within the design of the plays? So for example, you could have a QB who is throwing better than last year on broken plays, but that doesnt necessarily say that he is learning to read defenses better?

I did see him do better this week at that, so there is hope, but I dont think those stats take that into consideration?

They don't but they are a piece that is objective. He definitely still has to "just throw the damn ball" sometimes. I honestly think they told him to not throw unless he is absolutely sure it won't be picked, so he is hesitant to pull the trigger.  All QBs do it, Fields just does it a lot more. 

So at this point would you rather have no INTs and a few missed open receivers, or more INTs but a few more completions? Obviously you would prefer both the good, but I just want to see more MoF timing throws because as I said before, if he is able to unlock that area of the field, with his escapability, he would almost be unstoppable. 

On the broken plays, if you watch the other games, a good amount of Allen's, Mahomes', etc yards are on broken plays. It seems like a lot of chunk plays in the NFL come from those types of plays. 

Also, I don't know if you watched GBvNYG, but Love either throws to a WIDE open receiver, or just lofts up moon shots that his guys come down with. Those balls are picked off by any competent Safety 90% of the time, but he has avoided the INTs on those, but that luck will run out. He still threw a terrible INT and fumbled which was ultimately the deciding factor in the game. 

[Stinger226]

This is Justin Fields last 17 games played. 

278-437    63.7%   3004 25-11    92.3   QB rating

1237 yards rushing with 8 TDs 

 total offense 4231 yards 33 TDs 

All of this with 60 sacks ( bad OL) only 11 games with a legit #1 WR.

He is not as far away as we think.

Talk on the radio  today were saying that maybe we are to close to the prize, other top QBs make mistakes, take to long to throw, miss targets, . When we talk about them we didnt see every snap but  just look at highlights and stats. 

Im back to being all in , once he gets up to speed , he will be one of the most dynamic QBs in the league.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

32 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Talk on the radio  today were saying that maybe we are to close to the prize, other top QBs make mistakes, take to long to throw, miss targets, . When we talk about them we didn't see every snap but  just look at highlights and stats.

Funny you say this. Was listening to LeBetard and Stugotz this morning and they were going off about the Miami-Tennessee game from last night.  I should preface that since their show is based in Miami, they are self-professed "Miami Homers".  But they were talking about after this loss they've lost some faith in their team because THEY GAVE UP A 13 POINT LEAD in less than 3-4 minutes.  And because of that their offense was exposed for not being as good as they all thought.  They even were banging on Tua because, they said, once he's out of the pocket (aka broken plays) he's nothing like some of the other "GREAT" QBs and they listed Mahomes, Allen, Hurts etc. (but not .  Only a week (or more) before they were excited about the Dolphins  being able to seal up the 1 seed and quite possibly the AFC East.  (Of course these two things are still in play).

But man if they only knew how many times things like this have happened to us Bears fans...just this year alone.  We've given up two significant leads (Denver and Detriot - game 1) but have seen how good our QB can be if rushed outside the pocket.  It seemed hilarious to me to have fans like those for the Dolphins who were so confident until a loss like last night that helped bring them back to earth. 

[BearFan PHX]

I think it's tough to use stats to make the argument about Fields.

The question isnt just if his numbers are improving, but if hes making reads in rhythm. Luckily, he seems to be showing flashes of that now too, so that's good.

But if he throws for 3500 years off of broken plays only, he still wont be able to beat the top teams that way. The improvement has to be from the pocket too. And again, we saw flashes of that this past week, so good!

But I just want to warn against the idea that, as a hypothetical example, a team is 30th ranked and then moves up to 15th ranked, that doesnt mean they will eventually end up #1 ranked. Moving up from the basement to the middle is something every team should be able to do in a rebuilding phase. But beating good teams requires a certain set of skills that arent necessarily part of ascending to 15th?

To me the most hopeful sign of possible greatness was a simple 10 or 15 year throw to DJ Moore across the middle. It wasnt flashy, it wont make the stats looks great, but it was more important to me, than when fields does on the run, which he is great at.

I just need to see more good games, because the specific issues with Justin, and fixing them, arent really captured in the stats.

[Stinger226]

Winning is the ultimate judgement. If they win more games that means everyone is playing better. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Couple more Fields nuggets:

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Let's change the narrative from broken play to extended play. We want to see our plays look as scripted, but they are not there yet.  Slowly getting better but to stay in a game or even win, they cannot turn the ball over so we a handcuffed offense by design and how it's executed.  We don't like it,but we are starting to whisper "playoffs".  

[BearFan PHX]

26 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Let's change the narrative from broken play to extended play. We want to see our plays look as scripted, but they are not there yet.  Slowly getting better but to stay in a game or even win, they cannot turn the ball over so we a handcuffed offense by design and how it's executed.  We don't like it,but we are starting to whisper "playoffs".  

Whatever you call it's what Fields needs to improve on to become a true dominant QB. And like I said, I saw flashes of it in the last game, so Im not even being negative about it.

But we cant ignore that this is the skill he needs to improve on. Otherwise, we wont beat the good teams we would need to in order to win a Super Bowl.

So rather than (and I dont mean just you, but all of us in general) just hanging our hat on the heroics, I think its fair to say that we should want to see growth in that area. And if he does add that west coast pocket passing skill to his skill set, then nothing can stop Justin at all. And that's what we all want: a dominant QB who can take you to the promised land.

[Stinger226]

35 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Let's change the narrative from broken play to extended play. We want to see our plays look as scripted, but they are not there yet.  Slowly getting better but to stay in a game or even win, they cannot turn the ball over so we a handcuffed offense by design and how it's executed.  We don't like it,but we are starting to whisper "playoffs".  

In the last 5 games 1 Int and 3 fumbles which one was caused by Wright getting pushed into him. He is getting better at handling the ball. He is making better decisions. We are winning games. Since he came back, his report card is 2-1. His one bad game, he had the winning TD pass to win. Each game has its own report card. 4 more grades to go.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

8 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Whatever you call it's what Fields needs to improve on to become a true dominant QB. And like I said, I saw flashes of it in the last game, so Im not even being negative about it.

But we cant ignore that this is the skill he needs to improve on. Otherwise, we wont beat the good teams we would need to in order to win a Super Bowl.

So rather than (and I dont mean just you, but all of us in general) just hanging our hat on the heroics, I think its fair to say that we should want to see growth in that area. And if he does add that west coast pocket passing skill to his skill set, then nothing can stop Justin at all. And that's what we all want: a dominant QB who can take you to the promised land.

We have not seen the one, two, fire JF, I agree.  He has handcuffed himself or he has been instructed to be hesitant, meaning if they don't want him throwing unless he is sure.  They are playing not to lose after their ugly start that had them hampered with injuries. These coaches are also fighting for their jobs too and turn overs are the top way to lose.  Their formula has just started to show it works and 3 or 4 more wins, they might sneak into the playoffs.