Fields-O-Meter

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dont even think the people on that list are all saying definitively that Fields should be back. I youtube searched a few of the names, and watched the most recent videos and the opinions I saw were more balanced and nuanced than just "yes" or "no"

For example, Kurt Warner said that he doesnt think reading defenses is Fields' strength.

Dan Orlovsky said it was impossible to make a decision, and he thinks Fields should make it hard for the Bears to make a decision. That's really more rooting for someone than making a GM decision.

I know from JT OSullivan's videos, he says Fields misses reads all the time.

In no way am I saying that the people on this list are for dumping Fields either. Just that they are kind of being even handed and optimistic, and avoiding making definitive statements on it, which is smart for pundits who want to be around next year too.

And I think in general, pundits aren't in the business of crapping on active talented players. If you say "keep Fields" then you arent crapping on anyone. It's a stretch to say that's disrespectful, for example, to Caleb Williams. But if you say "trade Fields" then youre dissing Fields. It makes a lot more sense to avoid saying that directly. And that way, you cant really be wrong either. If a rookie busts or Fields thrives somewhere else, then the pundit who said to dump him has a -1 on the scoreboard. But no one will remember if you say keep him and he is traded, and busts out in the second team.

I CAN say that Fields himself is talking like he thinks there's a good chance he won't be in Chicago next year. And of course he doesn't know either. But given that, I'll bet his agent has prepared him for it, and how to answer questions without getting frustrated or hurting his own image. So Fields' agent must think it's a decent chance he is out of Chicago. And he would likely have some sort of inside information, even if it wasnt definitive. But a kind of read on the situation at least?

I could guess that if Poles knew he was keeping Fields, he might tell him that for confidence sake, but I can understand why he wouldnt too.

So there are no crystal balls. But as we have said before, there are reasons other than Fields himself to trade him too, like salary cap, and rookie deal windows, and we dont even know what the Bears think about the rookie QB class either. They each have positives and negatives too.

So whatever a pundit might say is just sportstalk. It's not evidence. Whether they say keep him or trade him.

Like you stated, most said PROBABLY the best choice would be to bring Fields back, not one of them were set in stone on that opinion. I'm not sure on my opinion, if a QB in the draft looks great at the combine, pro days, I may be out on Fields. I want what's best for the Bears future, I'm tired of losing. 

Imagine if a rookie comes in and plays like Young and Fields goes to Atlanta and balls out? The fandom would instantly want everyone fired. I try to offer a chance to do both and prevent that.

[Stinger226]

8 hours ago, TravD said:

Fields can not pass in structure. Any season he has a high ankle sprain, hammy or anything to the legs the season is over. He will be ineffective til he is healthy. Great guy, leader, arm and talent but he can’t read a defense before a play, during or anticipate. 
 

Look at all the injured QBs in the league, Stroud, great prospect is not playing now, injuries attack rookies as well as vets. Burrows is the best pocket passer in the league, and he seems injured all the time. Unless a player has an injury history, I'm not sure the (potential) injury comment applies. More reason to keep Fields and draft a QB, IMO. Do you agree that our coaches doesnt put JF1 in the best position to succeed? If you notice that when he runs now, instead of getting more yds, he's sliding to prevent taking more hits. 

[Daventry]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

 What's your opinion on this subject? If you posted it, i dont remember it. They're just opinions but , I was trying to show I am not alone in my opinion. Smarter people than me have similar thoughts. Some of these people only job is to analyze football players, therefore they put more time in it than me. GMs get paid for their choices and get it right 1 out of 4 times a draft. 

If you get sick, are you going to take a friend's advice or listen to a doctor with 20 years experience? We all acquire information and try to think what would be best for the Bears future , I was actually out on Fields after the last game and listened to so many of these guys, It flipped me again.

Dave Wannsted has the best idea, IMO, keep Fields for next year, maybe 2 , build your roster up, draft a prospect and develop him. Then you can decide who you want as a QB of the future. If Field's gets better, and wins you games , you can trade the other prospect. It eliminate the chance you regress with a rookie QB for one or two years. Just look at last year as an example, Young was most people's choice as the best QB, several teams tried to trade up to get him, Houston got stuck with Stroud. He is the better QB at this time, no one was saying Stroud was the next great QB, but there you are.

For me, if Fields didn't show signs he was getting better, I would be rooting for someone else but a rookie brings risks to. Change the OC, design an offense to fit his strengths, put better people around him, and see what you got. Baltimore did it with Jackson. ( not saying Justin is as good as) . This thought is based on Poles brings Flus back, if he lets him go, then we might as well bring a new QB with him. This is my opinion, you can sort information out and decide for yourself. Why are we on this site if not for throwing out opinions and discussing them? 

FWIW, I would prefer seeing Fields be traded and taking the best quarterback available in the draft.  We still have Bagent as well, he is at least a solid backup.

As noted by someone else, the people you identified as being pro-Fields are not necessarily so entirely if at all.

I guess this topic seems to have been beat to death and most importantly been the precipitant to two of the most prolific posters on this board get into some pretty unpleasant conflict.  I would really hate to see that continue.

I have given up on Fields.  He has been poor overall for three years.  That’s enough for me.  He seems like a great guy with loads of talent but he doesn’t get it.

[Stinger226]

32 minutes ago, Daventry said:

FWIW, I would prefer seeing Fields be traded and taking the best quarterback available in the draft.  We still have Bagent as well, he is at least a solid backup.

As noted by someone else, the people you identified as being pro-Fields are not necessarily so entirely if at all.

I guess this topic seems to have been beat to death and most importantly been the precipitant to two of the most prolific posters on this board get into some pretty unpleasant conflict.  I would really hate to see that continue.

I have given up on Fields.  He has been poor overall for three years.  That’s enough for me.  He seems like a great guy with loads of talent but he doesn’t get it.

Your choice may well be the best answer. LV keeps changing regimes, it's getting down to, one year to proof yourself. No  way  that going to promote stability. Everything will be clear once we figure out our draft position. If we don't have 1 or 2, I think the conversation changes. Fields is not a top 10 QB in the league,  nor is he bottom 10. I think the more choices we have to play QB is the best chance we have to start winning regularly. Fields this year will be cheaper that a top 5 pick. Fields is a mature man, no way he's going to hold out if we draft another QB, he will take that as a challenge. I'm not saying not to bring in a QB, more in the mind to have both. The GM survey said all you will get from other teams is a third. Is that worth the rookie QB risk of regression and a risk of JF1_going off on another team?

[Mongo3451]

10 hours ago, TravD said:

Fields can not pass in structure. Any season he has a high ankle sprain, hammy or anything to the legs the season is over. He will be ineffective til he is healthy. Great guy, leader, arm and talent but he can’t read a defense before a play, during or anticipate. 
 

Welcome back!  Amen on the post...

[Mongo3451]

We were just talking about Aikman a couple weeks ago.  He has NOT endorsed or condemned Fields.  

[Stinger226]

8 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

We were just talking about Aikman a couple weeks ago.  He has NOT endorsed or condemned Fields.  

He was on the Score with Dave Wannsted in an interview and said it would probably be best to bring him back next year. If I can find it,  I will post it later today. My doctor okayed my neck Thursday so I'm working today, will have time later.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Watching The Path- LSU Football this morning.  I am not an LSU fan but it really makes you like Jayden Daniels as a person/player.  If the Bears have the top pick, it will come down to Williams, Daniels, Harrison Jr, and Maye going top 5.  If the Bears don't take MHJ at 1, he will go to ARZ.  New England is going QB without a doubt. Without deep analysis on these QBs, I would be happy to move down to 2 or 3.  Draft day would be boring to take 2 studs and then have to wait until the 3rd for our next selection, so getting a 2nd is going to be in the works.  Would NE trade a future 1st and a 2nd to go from 3 to 1.   Bears can draft Williams/Daniels at 3,  Nabers/Bowers with the 2nd 1st (5-8), and an edge with the 2nd Rd, and Center round 3.  If the Bears hold on to JF, the rookie can learn the speed of the NFL. If the lose JF in FA next yr, he will sign somewhere and that signing will net a 3rd compensation pick so they get another year of services for that at minimum.  They can trade him up to the deadline for more too as injuries can make teams desperate.  Not all needs will be filled in the draft, but Daniels, DJ Moore, Nabers/Bowers, and an upgrade at C would make a great start to building the offense. 

[killakrzydav]

Nabers gets all the hype but Thomas may be the better compliment to Moore. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

10 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

Nabers gets all the hype but Thomas may be the better compliment to Moore. 

They did a bit on Thomas on the LSU series.  He seems destined to be a star. Just haven't seen him high on draft boards yet to draw my attention. 

[killakrzydav]

He's currently 24. Probably up a hundred slots and over the last 8 weeks.

[Pixote]

52 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

He was on the Score with Dave Wannsted in an interview and said it would probably be best to bring him back next year. If I can find it,  I will post it later today. My doctor okayed my neck Thursday so I'm working today, will have time later.

Congratulations on getting clearance from your doctor on your neck injury. I obviously know from experience how difficult it is to rehab from an injury involving one's spine. Just in time for the holiday season, and lots of fine football to enjoy.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

He was on the Score with Dave Wannsted in an interview and said it would probably be best to bring him back next year. If I can find it,  I will post it later today. My doctor okayed my neck Thursday so I'm working today, will have time later.

oh nice, good news on the neck. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

We were just talking about Aikman a couple weeks ago.  He has NOT endorsed or condemned Fields.  

As I listen to it again he DID NOT make a direct commitment but he did say a lot of good things about him and said he was pulling for him to do well. I would not take this conversation as (move on from Justin). He never states that and says Poles is going to have a tough decision to make. 

 

[Stinger226]

Thanks, now I got to get the rest of my body up to speed. I normally work out regularly and do yoga everyday, always active. Go to the chiropractor and get massages regularly for matinence. Having not been able to do anything for 4 months, my body sucks. 

[adam]

Watching the early Saturday game, I was curious to see how the PIT QBs compared to Fields in terms of career arc. Below is their ELO comparison.

Fields was trending as the worst of the bunch, then had that huge turnaround last year where he actually surpassed Lawrence and Pickett at the same number of starts (between 22-27). Since that point, Pickett continues to trend exactly how he started. That is interesting to me because he did have a ton of college attempts and was one of the QBs that "is who he is" and from the looks of it, that was spot on.

Lawrence turned it around and has been steadily improving over his last 20+ games. 

Fields has a chance to revert some of these trends with 3 great games to close out the year. Then he would at least be trending up year over year. 

 

[BearFan PHX]

31 minutes ago, adam said:

Watching the early Saturday game, I was curious to see how the PIT QBs compared to Fields in terms of career arc. Below is their ELO comparison.

Fields was trending as the worst of the bunch, then had that huge turnaround last year where he actually surpassed Lawrence and Pickett at the same number of starts (between 22-27). Since that point, Pickett continues to trend exactly how he started. That is interesting to me because he did have a ton of college attempts and was one of the QBs that "is who he is" and from the looks of it, that was spot on.

Lawrence turned it around and has been steadily improving over his last 20+ games. 

Fields has a chance to revert some of these trends with 3 great games to close out the year. Then he would at least be trending up year over year. 

 

interesting that Fields right now is right where Trubisky is right now.

It's also super interesting to see that all of them start strong and then bottom out in the second half of the first season. That's something to keep in mind for any new QB - when it happens, not to panic too early, because it seems to be the norm.

I think they start off without anyone knowing them well, and they do well, then defenses get a book on what they do well, and then they have to improve other areas of their game that the defenses arent expecting and hopefully dig themselves out of the hole.

It may also be that I dont understand exactly what ELO is, so maybe you have to play a few games poorly before your number drops from the initial average, like a chess rating, so maybe they arent good then bad, it just takes a minute for this metric to track how bad they are when they first get started?

[Alaskan Grizzly]

37 minutes ago, adam said:

ields has a chance to revert some of these trends with 3 great games to close out the year. Then he would at least be trending up year over year. 

Curious where you found this graph?  And can you plug any QB into it?  

[BearFan PHX]

4 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Curious where you found this graph?  And can you plug any QB into it?  

Hey Grizz, here's one site that will do it for you

https://www.nfeloapp.com/qb-rankings/era-adjusted/

[BearFan PHX]

Heres one against some other QBs we are familiar with

[BearFan PHX]

another set of former QBs that we all watched

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Here is a look at the 2021 draft class.  Davis Mills is flat, I added him later. 

[BearFan PHX]

49 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Here is a look at the 2021 draft class.  Davis Mills is flat, I added him later.

Its interesting. I added those other Bears QBs from over the years and Justin looks just terri ble beneath even the worst of them, but then, Trevor Lawrence is in the same neighborhood before getting better.

I know the data is adjusted in some way for different eras, and I wonder if that is making Fields look more terrible in the charts that I posted than is fair, since everyone from this modern class is so far below. Makes me wonder if the adjustments are fair.

I still think what i think about Fields from having watched the film, but Im wondering if the era to era comparisons on this site are fair.

Even still Fields now is at Trevor's lowest point. And Zach Wilson - wow.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

59 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Its interesting. I added those other Bears QBs from over the years and Justin looks just terri ble beneath even the worst of them, but then, Trevor Lawrence is in the same neighborhood before getting better.

I know the data is adjusted in some way for different eras, and I wonder if that is making Fields look more terrible in the charts that I posted than is fair, since everyone from this modern class is so far below. Makes me wonder if the adjustments are fair.

I still think what i think about Fields from having watched the film, but Im wondering if the era to era comparisons on this site are fair.

Even still Fields now is at Trevor's lowest point. And Zach Wilson - wow.

By the games played data, Fields would be at the point to start climbing.  He has a couple teams he could do this against too.  At the end of the year, Fields should rise comparable to Lawrence. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

6 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Hey Grizz, here's one site that will do it for you

https://www.nfeloapp.com/qb-rankings/era-adjusted/

Curious to see if they had a collegiate version of this.  And how it translates from one to the other.