Fields-O-Meter

[AZ54]

On 10/16/2023 at 9:18 AM, Mongo3451 said:

No, he was a pocket passer with wheels.  Very different.  Same with Mahomes, if you consider a 4.8 forty as fast.

I don't believe that is entirely correct.  He was traded and part of the reason was they thought he'd never become a pocket QB.  

https://www.britannica.com/biography/Steve-Young

"his NFL rights belonged to the equally hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In the two seasons there, Young had a .533 completion rate, throwing 11 touchdowns and 21 interceptions."

From 1987...  https://www.sun-sentinel.com/1987/04/25/bucs-send-qb-young-to-frisco-2nd-and-4th-round-draft-picks-obtained/

“We think Steve’s style of play will fit into our system, and he will be able to exhibit his vast talents,” 49ers coach Bill Walsh said. “This does not reflect on Montana, who will continue to be our leader.

“We admire Steve’s quick release and fine instincts. And he’s probably the fastest runner among quarterbacks in the league.”

Opinion will vary on who got the better of the deal. Those who think Young can be a winning NFL quarterback will say he’s perfect for the 49ers’ attack and praise Walsh for the trade. But others believe Young does not have the arm strength or mindset of a pro QB.

[BearFan PHX]

35 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I don't believe that is entirely correct.  He was traded and part of the reason was they thought he'd never become a pocket QB.  

https://www.britannica.com/biography/Steve-Young

"his NFL rights belonged to the equally hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In the two seasons there, Young had a .533 completion rate, throwing 11 touchdowns and 21 interceptions."

From 1987...  https://www.sun-sentinel.com/1987/04/25/bucs-send-qb-young-to-frisco-2nd-and-4th-round-draft-picks-obtained/

“We think Steve’s style of play will fit into our system, and he will be able to exhibit his vast talents,” 49ers coach Bill Walsh said. “This does not reflect on Montana, who will continue to be our leader.

“We admire Steve’s quick release and fine instincts. And he’s probably the fastest runner among quarterbacks in the league.”

Opinion will vary on who got the better of the deal. Those who think Young can be a winning NFL quarterback will say he’s perfect for the 49ers’ attack and praise Walsh for the trade. But others believe Young does not have the arm strength or mindset of a pro QB.

he had a quick release

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

I don't believe that is entirely correct.  He was traded and part of the reason was they thought he'd never become a pocket QB. 

But he was and he did.  Tampa was a shit show and Walsh knew exactly who was getting.  (The most accurate pocket passer of all time, who happened to be fast)

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

But he was and he did.  Tampa was a shit show and Walsh knew exactly who was getting.  (The most accurate pocket passer of all time, who happened to be fast)

For sure.  To show how hard finding a QB is....wasn't Walsh also involved in drafting Druckenmiller?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Druckenmiller

In the 1998 season, Druckenmiller played only two games: week 2 against the Washington Redskins and week 6 against the New Orleans Saints.^[6] After the season, General Manager Bill Walsh belittled his football skills and implied that Druckenmiller would have been released but for salary cap ramifications.^[7]

[BearFan PHX]

I think we need to draft Caleb Williams and Drake Maye with picks 1 and 2, so we get at least one NFL QB.

Ha. Im kidding of course. Its why we cant have Fields and Williams (or whoever) next year either.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

7 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I thought about the 5th year option before to give the bears time to build trade value into the 2024 season.  The 4th year option will cost around 41 million for just 2025.  Not seeing value their to gain a 1st or 2nd round pick 

I don't think you pick up the option. He plays next year without the option and than you either franchise him or extend him. Franchise and trade is the right way vs. locking yourself into the 5th year option out of the gate.  Very few scenarios at this point (unfortunately) where I could see the Bears electing that 5th year option (given that you have to do it this off-season and it seems likely he won't have shown enough on tape this year, in particular due to injury for you to make that bet).

Reality is Giants made massive mistake NOT electing franchise option with Daniel Jones just so they could get one more year of data before making a big guaranteed money decision.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Its why we cant have Fields and Williams (or whoever) next year either.

Nothing says we couldn’t have both Fields and Bagent next year?  Maybe a little Brees/Hill type combination?  That is provided Bagent proves he’s able to play at the NFL?  ?

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Nothing says we couldn’t have both Fields and Bagent next year?  Maybe a little Brees/Hill type combination?  That is provided Bagent proves he’s able to play at the NFL?  ?

I agree. but you cant put two top first round QBs that are still both trying to ascend on the same team. I dont think you can anyway.

And with so much draft capital and a year of high rated QBs, you kinda have to take one.

[Stinger226]

8 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Nothing says we couldn’t have both Fields and Bagent next year?  Maybe a little Brees/Hill type combination?  That is provided Bagent proves he’s able to play at the NFL?  ?

If Fields is good when he gets back  will just make Poles job harder to decide. The more games he plays will help. Hopefully Bagent plays well and that would be good for the team. The whole point of this year was to see if Fields can be a franchise QB, we will know by the end of the year. I watched videos of former Bears being asked if we should stay with Fields or move on, they all said to keep him. Long, Brown ,Briggs, Urlacher, they just have opinions but at least they played the game. We will find out if they are right.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

12 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Nothing says we couldn’t have both Fields and Bagent next year?  Maybe a little Brees/Hill type combination?  That is provided Bagent proves he’s able to play at the NFL?  ?

If we have a top 2 pick - they need to pick a QB (unless one of Bagent/Fields balls out).  With that said - I don't want to just ship out our existing QB's. I think competition is good and I also think if they are going to move on from Eberflus, it would be the time to go get a big name coach. Whether Harbaugh or Riley or Day from college or going out and making a push for a very strong offensive mind to partner.  I prefer someone with the credibility because I really want to see the Bears for once try to put more pressure and create a real competition for the QB's.

I think Fields would benefit from it as would the young QB.  And I think they have enough chips to make the rest of the team good.  Than see what happens from there.  But I really think the competition and all of those things would be very good and I don't mind having the top pick sit a bit and actually have to go out and earn it.  

Brady has talked a lot about how he didn't know if he would have been the same player had he not had to go earn and win the job.  

[Stinger226]

Not sure if it's accurate, but seen someone post time holding the ball, Williams 3.21____Fields___3.01. Seems to me both need  to get the ball out quicker.

[Mongo3451]

23 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Not sure if it's accurate, but seen someone post time holding the ball, Williams 3.21____Fields___3.01. Seems to me both need  to get the ball out quicker.

Can you find Fields release time in college?  You can get away with higher release times in college, definitely not in the pros.

[adam]

It seems like a ton of QBs are struggling this year. Lawrence won last night, but passed for 204 yards. Carr lost, but passed for 301. However, Carr was terrible and all he did was check down to Kamara (14 targets). 

[Stinger226]

20 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Can you find Fields release time in college?  You can get away with higher release times in college, definitely not in the pros.

I agree with that because of the lack of consistent competition. Projecting what players will be 1 year from now is very hard. Will Fields be good, will Bagent , will Williams ? People get fired and hired by how well they do at that. Like Adam said, lots of quality QBs are struggling now. Build a defense, a good running team and get lucky at QB is about the best you can do.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I would hope he missed no more than 4 weeks, ideally 2-3 weeks. That would allow you to ultimately get 13-14 games  (*fingers crossed*) and ideally he is healthy in those games.  I actually want to see - how does having 2 real good games, than the partial game, followed by 2-3 weeks off to just watch from the sideline, how do you than respond when you come back in and go through the final 7-8 games.  

Whatever they do - don't rush him back - get it to where you are confident in his ability to go out and showcase himself to the best extent he can.  Worse case hopefully November 19th vs. the Lions is when he is back. That would have him missing 4 games - including the Thursday night game against the Panthers.  You than have the long week to get back into it against the Lions.  

 

[adam]

On 10/20/2023 at 2:28 PM, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I would hope he missed no more than 4 weeks, ideally 2-3 weeks. That would allow you to ultimately get 13-14 games  (*fingers crossed*) and ideally he is healthy in those games.  I actually want to see - how does having 2 real good games, than the partial game, followed by 2-3 weeks off to just watch from the sideline, how do you than respond when you come back in and go through the final 7-8 games.  

Whatever they do - don't rush him back - get it to where you are confident in his ability to go out and showcase himself to the best extent he can.  Worse case hopefully November 19th vs. the Lions is when he is back. That would have him missing 4 games - including the Thursday night game against the Panthers.  You than have the long week to get back into it against the Lions.  

 

That is the optimal week to bring him back, however, he may feel rushed to get back earlier, and with an injury like that, once the swelling is gone, he could just tell them he is not in pain. It would be a mistake, but after seeing that win without him, I feel like he will feel like he needs to play. 

[adam]

Now with a few more games under his belt, here is where Fields is compared to his contemporaries.

For a QB, in his 3rd year with 30-40 starts, over 30 passing TDs, under 40 INTs, 5K passing yards, an 80 QB Rating or higher, and at least 1000 rushing yards. 

That criteria has only 6 QBs in it in the Super Bowl era. Jackson, Watson, Hurts, Griffin, Jones, and Fields. 

Fields is last in attempts, completions, yards, Comp%, TD, QB Rating, and Pick6's. He is 2nd to last in sacks and Y/A and 4th in INT. He is 2nd in rushing yards and 4th in rushing TDs. 

In terms of QB Rating, he is closest to Jones. Here is how they stack up against each other as passers:

Jones 796-1268, 62.8%, 8398 yds, 45 TD, 29 INT, 84.3 QB Rating (12-25 as a starter)
Fields 494-810, 61.0%, 5699 yds, 36 TD, 27 INT, 83.1 QB Rating (7-26 as a starter)

My belief is that unless Fields wins out while literally playing near an MVP level that they will move on from him after this season. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Now with a few more games under his belt, here is where Fields is compared to his contemporaries.

For a QB, in his 3rd year with 30-40 starts, over 30 passing TDs, under 40 INTs, 5K passing yards, an 80 QB Rating or higher, and at least 1000 rushing yards. 

That criteria has only 6 QBs in it in the Super Bowl era. Jackson, Watson, Hurts, Griffin, Jones, and Fields. 

Fields is last in attempts, completions, yards, Comp%, TD, QB Rating, and Pick6's. He is 2nd to last in sacks and Y/A and 4th in INT. He is 2nd in rushing yards and 4th in rushing TDs. 

In terms of QB Rating, he is closest to Jones. Here is how they stack up against each other as passers:

Jones 796-1268, 62.8%, 8398 yds, 45 TD, 29 INT, 84.3 QB Rating (12-25 as a starter)
Fields 494-810, 61.0%, 5699 yds, 36 TD, 27 INT, 83.1 QB Rating (7-26 as a starter)

My belief is that unless Fields wins out while literally playing near an MVP level that they will move on from him after this season. 

I dont think he has to win out but definitely where we can see the growth. The team is healthy  but its largely affected by the coaches, something that can make or break that growth. Its all about the last 6 games. 

[adam]

4 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I dont think he has to win out but definitely where we can see the growth. The team is healthy  but its largely affected by the coaches, something that can make or break that growth. Its all about the last 6 games. 

There are only 5 games left. He is 1-1 after 2 games, but ultimately it comes down to passing production. Only the team knows whether the game plan is because Getsy is terrible, or because they don't trust Fields, or both.

He is 43-60, 71.1%, 386 yds, 6.4 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 Fumbles, 30-163 rushing in two games since returning.

So his averages are 21.5-30, 193 yds, 6.4 Y/A, 0.5 TD, 0 INT, 1.5 FL, 15-81.5 rushing. Rushing+Passing: 274.5.

So after 2 of the 7, his TD production is low, INTs look great, Y/A down, rushing looks great. Fumbles bad. His pass attempts are up 3 from his season average, and about 5 from his career averages. Comp% is way up but mainly due to Y/A being so low. It looks like he reverted back to the start of the season as the last two games are very similar to his first two of the season besides the INTs.

He has never gone 3 straight games without an INT. He has two right now, but he turns the ball over too much. If it is not an INT, it is a fumble. Out of everything else, that may be the deciding factor.

[Stinger226]

18 minutes ago, adam said:

There are only 5 games left. He is 1-1 after 2 games, but ultimately it comes down to passing production. Only the team knows whether the game plan is because Getsy is terrible, or because they don't trust Fields, or both.

He is 43-60, 71.1%, 386 yds, 6.4 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 Fumbles, 30-163 rushing in two games since returning.

So his averages are 21.5-30, 193 yds, 6.4 Y/A, 0.5 TD, 0 INT, 1.5 FL, 15-81.5 rushing. Rushing+Passing: 274.5.

So after 2 of the 7, his TD production is low, INTs look great, Y/A down, rushing looks great. Fumbles bad. His pass attempts are up 3 from his season average, and about 5 from his career averages. Comp% is way up but mainly due to Y/A being so low. It looks like he reverted back to the start of the season as the last two games are very similar to his first two of the season besides the INTs.

He has never gone 3 straight games without an INT. He has two right now, but he turns the ball over too much. If it is not an INT, it is a fumble. Out of everything else, that may be the deciding factor.

I agree that his worst trait is TOs, if that continues, the rest of the stats wont matter. Agree with the 1-1 report card. 

[adam]

3 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I agree that his worst trait is TOs, if that continues, the rest of the stats wont matter. Agree with the 1-1 report card. 

Yep, I think reading the field and the passing over the middle stuff can be corrected or improved upon over time, but he can't turn the ball over at the rate he has been. Like you said, nothing else is going to matter. Jameis Winston threw for over 300 yards a lot but with 3 picks and a fumble in a ton of games. None of the stats mattered but the turnovers.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, adam said:

For a QB, in his 3rd year with 30-40 starts, over 30 passing TDs, under 40 INTs, 5K passing yards, an 80 QB Rating or higher, and at least 1000 rushing yards. 

That criteria has only 6 QBs in it in the Super Bowl era. Jackson, Watson, Hurts, Griffin, Jones, and Fields. 

Wouldn’t this be ‘cherry picking’ a bit?? The qualifications you outline are pretty specific.  And those that qualified aren’t all necessarily horrible QBs.  Especially if you add in Jackson (who’s already been an MVP) and Hurts.  And honestly had Griffen not been prone to injury, it’s hard to tell where he’d have ended up. Anyhow, shouldn’t you also consider what type of team (aka system - Purdy in SF) surrounds the player to measure how they really are performing?  Suffice to say Jackson has made a career out of doing what Justin was doing last year and for all intents and purposes has had a pretty good team around him (especially on defense) and damn good HC.   Hurts has also benefited from a lot of good things with key players and a really good oline (anchored by Kelce).  Jones who he is most comparable to (by your stats) did pretty well last year (made the playoffs - because of Daboll?) but for whatever reason the wheels came off this year. I don’t know what the story is there as I really haven’t watched much of his play but I know it has driven Daboll nuts.  At any rate, to have made the cut of the original qualifiers, I’d think Justin has done some significant and (I dare say) elite things to be considered. Never mind the records (team and league) he’s set since playing in Chicago. 
 

Edit: happened to see this graphic (below) after posting.  And it involves three of the QBs we’re talking about.  

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, adam said:

There are only 5 games left. He is 1-1 after 2 games, but ultimately it comes down to passing production. Only the team knows whether the game plan is because Getsy is terrible, or because they don't trust Fields, or both.

It's obvious when Getsy calls downfield plays.  It usually ends with Justin running or everyone, including Thayer, yelling at him to throw the damn ball.  He has made one great play in each of the last two games throwing downfield.  He needs to triple those.

[adam]

4 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Wouldn’t this be ‘cherry picking’ a bit?? The qualifications you outline are pretty specific.  And those that qualified aren’t all necessarily horrible QBs.  Especially if you add in Jackson (who’s already been an MVP) and Hurts.  And honestly had Griffen not been prone to injury, it’s hard to tell where he’d have ended up. Anyhow, shouldn’t you also consider what type of team (aka system - Purdy in SF) surrounds the player to measure how they really are performing?  Suffice to say Jackson has made a career out of doing what Justin was doing last year and for all intents and purposes has had a pretty good team around him (especially on defense) and damn good HC.   Hurts has also benefited from a lot of good things with key players and a really good oline (anchored by Kelce).  Jones who he is most comparable to (by your stats) did pretty well last year (made the playoffs - because of Daboll?) but for whatever reason the wheels came off this year. I don’t know what the story is there as I really haven’t watched much of his play but I know it has driven Daboll nuts.  At any rate, to have made the cut of the original qualifiers, I’d think Justin has done some significant and (I dare say) elite things to be considered. Never mind the records (team and league) he’s set since playing in Chicago. 
 

Edit: happened to see this graphic (below) after posting.  And it involves three of the QBs we’re talking about.  

I was honing in on Fields stats with players plus or minus a little bit on both ends for those stats to find the closest group to him. That was sort of the point. He is in a pretty rare group of accomplished QBs, so there is something there. This is not Mitch Trubisky again, even though Mitch technically had better passing numbers. 

[ChileBear]

18 hours ago, adam said:

 This is not Mitch Trubisky again, even though Mitch technically had better passing numbers. 

Agreed. Justin has exceptional athletic ability. I just don't think he'll ever develop into a top QB. But hey, maybe the OC from the Raven could do it here?