Fields-O-Meter

[adam]

11 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

We have not seen the one, two, fire JF, I agree.  He has handcuffed himself or he has been instructed to be hesitant, meaning if they don't want him throwing unless he is sure.  They are playing not to lose after their ugly start that had them hampered with injuries. These coaches are also fighting for their jobs too and turn overs are the top way to lose.  Their formula has just started to show it works and 3 or 4 more wins, they might sneak into the playoffs.  

One other thing I noticed, Justin doesn't seem to have that 4th gear this year where he runs away from defenders. I wonder if he is just saving energy or if it is something else. He is still as fast as hell, he is just no longer showing up on the fastest ball carrier page on Next Gen Stats. He was all over it last year.

[Stinger226]

6 minutes ago, adam said:

One other thing I noticed, Justin doesn't seem to have that 4th gear this year where he runs away from defenders. I wonder if he is just saving energy or if it is something else. He is still as fast as hell, he is just no longer showing up on the fastest ball carrier page on Next Gen Stats. He was all over it last year.

I think he is trying to be more protective when he runs which isn't a bad thing.

[adam]

One huge factor to consider with JF1s numbers that is beyond Fields control (mostly) is in the number of passing attempts he has per game.

He averages a solid 7.1 Y/A for this season (last 2) and 7.0 for his career. In order to have a 300 yard passing game with that number, he would need to 43 attempts in a game. There is just one problem.

HE HAS NEVER ATTEMPTED 40 PASSES IN A GAME IN HIS CAREER!

OK, so maybe 300 yards per game is too much? How about we want him to be the first franchise 4K Passer? If he plays every game, he would need 235 yards per game. Easy right? Well.......... He would need to attempt 34 passes, every game, to surpass 235 a game to get to 4K (if he played in every game too). 

So how many times has Justin attempted 34 or more passes? 4 times! Once in 2021 and 3 times this season, but that's it, 4 times in his 36 starts. 

He is averaging 28 attempts per game this season, with 7.1 Y/A = 201 yds per game.

So just to get to 235, he needs 6 per attempts per game, to hit 300, he would need 15 more than he has right now.  Just based on the number of plays run, it is really hard for him to have a 300 yard game. He would need a super high Y/A or super high comp pct%.

[adam]

So I am thinking wanting a 4K season is a stretch for Fields with the low volume. So would something in between Jackson and Hurts be a more realistic target?

Lamar Jackson's highest passing yardage (Season - 3,127 yds), highest per game average (225.7 y/g).

Jalen Hurts' highest passing yardage (Season - 3,701 yds), highest per game average (246.7 y/g).

So 3,414 yds for the season is the halfway point between Jackson's best season and Hurts'?

To get there, Fields would need to average 201 yds per game, which ironically is the exact number is averaging this season, lol. However, he needs to play 17 to hit that. So more realistically, 228 yds (for 15 games) to hit that.

Thoughts?

[BearFan PHX]

All good points Adam.

For me, it's less about the yards and more about what he does within the play. If he shows that, it would mean more to me than throwing a bunch of long TD passes on free plays for example?

It'd be fun to see benchmarks like 3,500 or 4,000 yards, but I could envision scenarios where I'd want to keep Justin and he only gets 3,200 yards, and ones where he gets 3,750 yards and I want to trade him.

Especially with his style of play. i think (or hope?) the Bears' decision makers are looking for growth in the pocket and not just more wow plays, which hes always had.

Add those wow plays to consistent regular plays and you've got something really special. And we have started to see flashes of that too from Justin.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

48 minutes ago, adam said:

To get there, Fields would need to average 201 yds per game, which ironically is the exact number is averaging this season, lol. However, he needs to play 17 to hit that. So more realistically, 228 yds (for 15 games) to hit that.

Thoughts?

In the 9 games he's played in this season he's gone over 200 in six of them.  The three he did not were against the Chiefs (99), Vikings - game #1 (58 yds) and Lions - game #1 (169 yds).  *As an aside, it appears adjustments were made in the second game with the same opponents and both times Justin (and the team) did better...

Anyhow, of the remaining six games where he threw for more than 200 yds he threw  for 335 against Denver (and lost) and 282 against Washington the following week and won.  

To me that mark of '201 yards per game' isn't impossible to attain and so far this season he's been able to do that more than he hasn't.  

[adam]

Since Week 4, Fields is comparable to Prescott, Allen, Hurts, Cousins, Tua, Burrow, and Wilson when it comes to Advanced Stats (EPA/Play and CPOE), which are probably the best QB metrics. Purdy is in a league of his own. 

 

 

[adam]

Welp, the Cleveland game was the signature game for Fields, he didn't need to pass for a ton, just don't turn the ball over and get the offense to score 17+. The offense scored 10 pts and he didn't play particularly well. So out of the last 4 games,  I would say he is 2-2 which is not good enough. 

[Mongo3451]

Can't fix this dumb shit.  Last play of the game...

[adam]

3 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Can't fix this dumb shit.  Last play of the game...

Yep just hike and throw it to the outside, they had that on the last 2 plays, so dumb.

[BearFan PHX]

46 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Can't fix this dumb shit.  Last play of the game...

exactly. we have the heroics, but we dont have the simple mechanisms of regular football.

[adam]

1 minute ago, BearFan PHX said:

exactly. we have the heroics, but we dont have the simple mechanisms of regular football.

Coaching is terrible, but great players can overcome bad things. Fields can't overcome that if his only plus trait is running and he barely uses it.

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Coaching is terrible, but great players can overcome bad things. Fields can't overcome that if his only plus trait is running and he barely uses it.

You can only coach a one trick pony so far.  They've taken away his running but placing a spy fifteen yards off the line of scrimmage.  The two-fer for the defense is, that's the beginning of the deep middle that he already can't throw to.  It allows the safeties to play wider and or closer for whatever they need.  That's why nothing looks open after he fails in his initial progression.  DC's are counting on it like clockwork.

[BearFan PHX]

4 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

You can only coach a one trick pony so far.  They've taken away his running but placing a spy fifteen yards off the line of scrimmage.  The two-fer for the defense is, that's the beginning of the deep middle that he already can throw to.  It allows the safeties to play wider and or closer for whatever they need.  That's why nothing looks open after he fails in his initial progression.  DC's are counting on it like clockwork.

exactly!!

[Bears4Ever_34]

On 12/13/2023 at 6:16 AM, adam said:

One other thing I noticed, Justin doesn't seem to have that 4th gear this year where he runs away from defenders. I wonder if he is just saving energy or if it is something else. He is still as fast as hell, he is just no longer showing up on the fastest ball carrier page on Next Gen Stats. He was all over it last year.

His longest run all season is 29 yards. Everyone but DET has figured out how to contain that part of his game. The pocket passing still lags too far behind the running ability, but now it's even more glaring when he can't run as effectively as he used to.

[adam]

7 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

His longest run all season is 29 yards. Everyone but DET has figured out how to contain that part of his game. The pocket passing still lags too far behind the running ability, but now it's even more glaring when he can't run as effectively as he used to.

Yep and I think the hits have gotten to him.

What sucks is there is no way to get a proper evaluation of Fields in meaningless games, and that's what the Bears will have for the next 3. At least with a win, it would've been like a playoff game every week. Now none of those games matter and who know how hard the opponents will be playing. Maybe the GB game, but one game is not going to flip the script as we have seen the same result for a few years now.

[adam]

People may forget that Pace and Nagy basically got fired for drafting Fields. They only got one year with him and Fields had some issues that many believed were correctable. Then Poles comes in and strips the roster in 2022 giving Fields all the excuses in the world when things went bad. This was supposed to be the no-excuses year and he is basically the exact same guy he has always been. Nothing has changed outside of the fact that he no longer gets the huge scrambles.

He has improved marginally statwise, but I think they have purposely avoided plays he can't do like all of the timing and MoF stuff. They know better than anyone what the assessment is, but the numbers don't lie. 

[BearFan PHX]

44 minutes ago, adam said:

People may forget that Pace and Nagy basically got fired for drafting Fields. They only got one year with him and Fields had some issues that many believed were correctable. Then Poles comes in and strips the roster in 2022 giving Fields all the excuses in the world when things went bad. This was supposed to be the no-excuses year and he is basically the exact same guy he has always been. Nothing has changed outside of the fact that he no longer gets the huge scrambles.

He has improved marginally statwise, but I think they have purposely avoided plays he can't do like all of the timing and MoF stuff. They know better than anyone what the assessment is, but the numbers don't lie. 

true. and i will even concede that Ive seen him make more throws from the pocket, closer to on time the past few weeks than id ever seen from him before. But i dont think it's enough.

JF may well eventually turn into a superstar somewhere else. As long as we get our QB and are able to become the winner we are set up to be, and contend with them, it doesnt matter what JF becomes - because we dont know it now, and we cant go all in on him now. That's just NFL reality.

[adam]

20 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

true. and i will even concede that Ive seen him make more throws from the pocket, closer to on time the past few weeks than id ever seen from him before. But i dont think it's enough.

JF may well eventually turn into a superstar somewhere else. As long as we get our QB and are able to become the winner we are set up to be, and contend with them, it doesnt matter what JF becomes - because we dont know it now, and we cant go all in on him now. That's just NFL reality.

We are nearing 40 starts, he is what he is. He may end up with a career arc like Geno Smith but that is the exception not the norm.

[BearFan PHX]

40 minutes ago, adam said:

We are nearing 40 starts, he is what he is. He may end up with a career arc like Geno Smith but that is the exception not the norm.

exactly. I am admitting I dont have a crystal ball and Fields has a lot of talent. But Fields is not a bet I would make.

[adam]

No MoF no win, not even a single attempt over the middle.

 

 

[Mongo3451]

5 minutes ago, adam said:

No MoF no win, not even a single attempt over the middle.

 

 

That's exactly where the spy sits.  I mentioned that somewhere earlier.  Fields is done.

[BearFan PHX]

Just now, Mongo3451 said:

That's exactly where the spy sits.  I mentioned that somewhere earlier.  Fields is done.

thats the problem with trying to do things a whole new way - once the league figures it out, youre done.

sitting in the pocket and making reads on time still works

[adam]

4 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

That's exactly where the spy sits.  I mentioned that somewhere earlier.  Fields is done.

Yes you did, just confirming with passing map.

Btw, can any receiver bail Fields out ever? Not just this game but all season. Scott with a huge drop that hit his hands a few weeks ago, Velus drops everything, Mooney has had a bunch, Tonyan dropped the one today but also dropped a TD a few weeks ago too. There are different levels of drops but these I would consider bad drops. Kmet and Moore have been the only 2 reliable receivers all year.

[Mongo3451]

1 minute ago, adam said:

Yes you did, just confirming with passing map.

Btw, can any receiver bail Fields out ever? Not just this game but all season. Scott with a huge drop that hit his hands a few weeks ago, Velus drops everything, Mooney has had a bunch, Tonyan dropped the one today but also dropped a TD a few weeks ago too. There are different levels of drops but these I would consider bad drops. Kmet and Moore have been the only 2 reliable receivers all year.

That's what happens when you have pressure to perform.  Relaxed and confident players don't choke often.  The quarterback instilling confidence is what changes the dynamic.  Fields ain't it.