Fields-O-Meter

[Stinger226]

If Poles changes coaches, we will have a new QB. Unless the new coach wants Fields, which is unlikely. Like you said 2-2 in games, not sure anything he does changes Poles mind .  A few things may  change the scenario. 1) that maybe we dont get the first pick  2) Poles evaluation of the rookie QBs turns bad. 

[Mongo3451]

Just now, Stinger226 said:

If Poles changes coaches, we will have a new QB. Unless the new coach wants Fields, which is unlikely. Like you said 2-2 in games, not sure anything he does changes Poles mind .  A few things may  change the scenario. 1) that maybe we dont get the first pick  2) Poles evaluation of the rookie QBs turns bad. 

Sorry bro, only a McCaskey can screw it up now.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

56 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

If Poles changes coaches, we will have a new QB. Unless the new coach wants Fields, which is unlikely. Like you said 2-2 in games, not sure anything he does changes Poles mind .  A few things may  change the scenario. 1) that maybe we dont get the first pick  2) Poles evaluation of the rookie QBs turns bad. 

If....., a few of JF passes were caught, like Tonyan and even the hail Mary, Fields would have a plus. I am tired of hanging on, so bring in someone else and let Poles have his shot at getting it right.  You buy in and are let down and I can now admit thst Bear fans are the most insane.  

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

If Poles changes coaches, we will have a new QB. Unless the new coach wants Fields, which is unlikely. Like you said 2-2 in games, not sure anything he does changes Poles mind .  A few things may  change the scenario. 1) that maybe we dont get the first pick  2) Poles evaluation of the rookie QBs turns bad. 

Yep, at this point they have their eval of the coaching staff and the players. Nothing they do in the last 3 weeks, especially against ATL and ARZ are going to change that. However if the QBs don't overwhelm them or if they end up at #2, they may keep Fields for Year 4. Remember how many years Trubisky got, and Mitch went 6-3 in his last year on the team.

[BearFan PHX]

Just now, ASHKUM BEAR said:

If....., a few of JF passes were caught, like Tonyan and even the hail Mary, Fields would have a plus. I am tired of hanging on, so bring in someone else and let Poles have his shot at getting it right.  You buy in and are let down and I can now admit thst Bear fans are the most insane.  

LOL - lemme buy you a beer Ashkum, welcome to the dark side LOL

truth though? with a new QB and head coach Im gonna be insane again with hope hahaha

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 minute ago, BearFan PHX said:

LOL - lemme buy you a beer Ashkum, welcome to the dark side LOL

truth though? with a new QB and head coach Im gonna be insane again with hope hahaha

I am getting tired of hope.  If they don't fire Flus and hire a big name HC that has a track record, it doesn't matter who is QB.  The McCaskeys goody two shoe players and coaches have brought  disappointments for 40 plus years.   

[adam]

4 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I am getting tired of hope.  If they don't fire Flus and hire a big name HC that has a track record, it doesn't matter who is QB.  The McCaskeys goody two shoe players and coaches have brought  disappointments for 40 plus years.   

Where is the accountability? Mooney and Tonyan should be healthy scratches next week. Send a message, playing like crap has consequences. Flus would never do that though which is why he needs to go.

[BearFan PHX]

Just now, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I am getting tired of hope.  If they don't fire Flus and hire a big name HC that has a track record, it doesn't matter who is QB.  The McCaskeys goody two shoe players and coaches have brought  disappointments for 40 plus years.   

that is a winning attitude.

we need to demand winners. well I mean, no one cares what we think, but we need coaches that demand excellence!

we need accountability, not just loyalty.

as Ive said before, I'm a fan of the team more than I'm a fan of the players. When the players are good for the team, I like them. But i dont want to make excuses for them. I want them to be great, if they arent great, then I want to see someone else get a chance to be great.

None of this to mean that I dont like Fields or Eberflus as men. They both seem really cool. Id love to be friends or neighbors with either of them. A lot more than I want Ditka as a next door neighbor! I imagine him yelling about the garbage can being an inch on his property LOL

But when it comes to leading the team, friendly isnt the top of my list. its ok if they are likeable or friendly, but its not a core part of the job.

We have a pretty good roster, and an amazing media market. this should be a very attractive job with the draft picks and cap room we have. theres no reason we cant get an excellent candidate, not some goofy also ran.

Eberflus is a golly gee kind of guy. Jim Harbaugh would destroy him in an argument. Eberflus would go for the sympathetic moral victory "I cant believe that guy is such a jerk, i just chose to walk away" but you know whod be there standing at the end, arms crossed - the jerk that won.

I got my first fix in 1985. Our team didnt just win games, we scared people. We won the game before it started. The defensive line barked like dogs and it wasnt funny or cheesy - it was terrifying. We were dominant.

I want that again. I dont want to win a Super Bowl because the other team missed a field goal at the end. I wanna win by 30 points.

I dont want to hope we can get a fumble at the end of games, I want the other team to just want to go home, KNOWING with 8 minutes left that the game is OVER and they lost.

Honestly, our defense has the bones to make that happen. We have some pieces on offense like Wright and Moore that can walk that walk.

This isnt impossible. It's real if you get this offseason right.

Im so mad right now, and so inspired. Lets go.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

7 minutes ago, adam said:

Where is the accountability? Mooney and Tonyan should be healthy scratches next week. Send a message, playing like crap has consequences. Flus would never do that though which is why he needs to go.

Flus is too nice, which I a good flaw in life, but you will go down with the ship. This ship is sunk and Poles can be put on notice too for his embarrassing GM record for putting a winning team together.

[adam]

At 8-26, Fields would need to go 10-7 for the next 6 years just to get to .500 for his career.

[adam]

Fields numbers are trending back to his mean.

After that 2 game outburst before his injury, he jumped way ahead of his career averages. Now he is on pace for less TDs than last season per game and his overall yardage per game this year is only 25 more than last year. So the development we expected didn't happen and that's with DJ Moore and an improved OLine. Very unfortunate for him and the team. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

13 hours ago, adam said:

At 8-26, Fields would need to go 10-7 for the next 6 years just to get to .500 for his career.

I hope there is a team that can fix JF and he can have a good NFL career as long as we get some compensation.  He will need an OC that can design a scheme like Baltimore has for Lamar.  My fear is the Bears will destroy whoever they draft and have to lean on them before they are ready and we will be in the same place 3 years down the road

[adam]

12 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I hope there is a team that can fix JF and he can have a good NFL career as long as we get some compensation.  He will need an OC that can design a scheme like Baltimore has for Lamar.  My fear is the Bears will destroy whoever they draft and have to lean on them before they are ready and we will be in the place 3 years down the road

I doubt it, this is his 2nd set of coaches, both who believed they could unlock something.

LONG POST COMING - SORRY IN ADVANCE:

I did a little digging and looked at Fields career numbers vs the collective QBs that played in the same offenses, with same players, and same coaches as he did over the last 3 seasons. Here are the passing numbers:

Fields - 35 starts, 8-27 W-L, 532-883, 60.2%, 6,088 yds, 38 TD, 29 INT, 165 yds per game, 6.9 Y/A, 126 sacks, 2 4Q Comebacks, 1x 300yd passing game, 25 Att/g

Other QBs - 13 starts, 6-7 W-L, 296-465, 63.7%, 2,947yds, 14 TD, 17 INT, 227 yds per game, 6.3 Y/A, 31 sacks, 2 4Q Comebacks, 2x 300yd passing games, 36 Att/g (Dalton, Bagent, Foles, Peterman, Siemian)

Fields obviously has a huge advantage in rushing, especially from last year, but also led with fumbles by a large margin, so the TD to Turnover ratio is a lot closer if you add rushing.

The biggest thing that stands out to me is Fields numbers are way too close to some bottom of the barrel QBs (Peterman, Siemian, etc) in the same conditions. If you add Fields' rushing numbers the yards per game are much closer, but Fields is still lower (which I thought was odd), so while he scored more, the offense was worse. Then as you move right along the stats, the most glaring difference is sacks. In 2.5x starts, Fields has 4x the sacks. Those are basically a triple negative plays (fewer pass attempts, lost yardage, and loss of down). 

So even though Fields has a better TD ratio, especially with his rushing scores, the negative plays outweigh them. Fields has 155 Sacks+INTs (4.43/g), while the other QBs have 48 (3.69/g). If I include fumbles, it obviously makes it worse on Fields. Even without the fumbles, every game Fields basically has one extra impactful negative play than the other QBs, which equates to basically 2 pts lost per game. With 35 starts, that is 70 pts taken off the board (as just a difference to the other QBs) not overall. 

Again, this is Fields compared to arguably some really bad QBs. Fields should be light years ahead of these guys and yet ultimately the net results are very similar. 

The last thing is, Fields has won 8 games in 2.5 seasons of starting, here are the teams he beat and how he performed in those wins:

1. DET (3-13-1) - Fields 209 yds passing, 0 TD, 1 INT, 82.7 QB Rating
2. LVR (10-7) - Fields 111 yds passing, 1 TD, 0 INT, 91.9 QB Rating
3. SF (13-4) - Fields 121 yds passing, 2 TD, 1 INT, 85.7 QB Rating
4. HOU (3-13-1) - 106 yds passing, 0 TD, 2 INT, 27.7 QB Rating
5. NE (8-9) - Fields 179 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Rush TD, 85.2 QB Rating
6. WAS (4-10) - Fields 282 yds passing, 4 TD, 0 INT, 125.3 QB Rating
7. MIN (7-7) - Fields 217 yds passing, 0 TD, 0 INT, 87.3 QB Rating
8. DET (10-4) - Fields 223, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 Rush TD, 88.3 QB Rating

How many of those games did Fields actually win? WAS for sure, he was in the zone that game. That is the one game that he outscored the opponent by himself. However, he doesn't have any other wins with 3 TDs, which is what I would consider a QB Win. So out of 35 starts, he has 1 QB Win. That unfortunately is not enough in this day and age of the NFL. He is the most athletically gifted QB the Bears ever have and may be even top 5 in NFL history, but he has not evolved as a passer enough, and when the opponent takes away him as a running threat (send Edge to him every time), we see the results. As a passer, he is basically Gardner Minshew (stats way too close). Minshew is on his 3rd team in 4 years and looks to be a career backup, spot starter.

So if you are Poles, you know this, you have seen it. If Fields puts in all that work in the offseason (he has amazing work ethic), between games, and this is all you get for all that effort, unfortunately, that sort of shows where his ceiling is in the NFL. The ceiling is not high enough to overcome the floor, and his games are too inconsistent week in and week out after 35 starts to continue to believe that he will somehow hit the switch and both the floor and ceiling will rise.

Now the devil's advocate is that he had bad coaches, but even with the bad coaches, you would think a great QB would separate himself from the other QBs in the same system, especially thru 35 starts. Fields hasn't done that, or hasn't done it enough to warrant a huge contract and extension, AND for the team to forego drafting a QB.

BLUF: Fields has improved over 2.5 years, but the development has not been great/fast enough to separate himself from other QBs (who in my opinion were subpar in general) in the same system/conditions. 

The final 3 games will be an audition for Fields for other teams that believe they can fix him. I honestly expect super conservative game plans to reduce the chance of INTs. 

These are the numbers and some of my opinion, but I believe it to be as close to factual as I know it. Again I apologize for the long post. 

[adam]

The only other scenario I can think of is if the Bears offer Fields a short extension, like 3 years for $75M (same as Geno Smith), a top 20 QB contract. Then still draft a QB, but sit that QB for Year 1 (unless he beats out Fields in the offseason).

That would be way more than Mayfield and Minshew got and would give Fields a substantial raise from his expected $6M in 2024. So basically Poles can hedge his bets again while not killing himself with a bad contract. Fields gets a few years of predictable pay and not a long contract that would extend beyond his prime years, so if the light turns on, he would have a huge payday coming a year later than the original rookie contract length (big contract in Year 6 vs Year 5). 

[BearFan PHX]

I dont know why we are all afraid to just say it: Fields is a bust.

I know he has eye popping intangibles, but where are the points?

[adam]

7 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dont know why we are all afraid to just say it: Fields is a bust.

I know he has eye popping intangibles, but where are the points?

I wouldn't say he is a bust, he was the 4th QB selected. I know he was a first rounder, but it was him or Jones at that point. I would say he is at a good backup and spot starter level, and a better version of Taysom Hill and/or Gardner Minshew.  He can win a few, lose a few, but ultimately does not move the needle enough at the most important position on the field. So the net result is almost negligible.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

5 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dont know why we are all afraid to just say it: Fields is a bust.

I know he has eye popping intangibles, but where are the points?

Tell me unequivocally who the Bears will draft that will play better than Justin has been. Stop using the ‘I can’t predict the future’ smoke cover and provide some stats like Adam does or support your opposing viewpoint with some numbers.  Who in this upcoming draft class has a better WINNING record than does Justin at the same point in his career?  What are you seeing from the play of Williams, Maye or any of the ‘top tier’ QBs that makes you sure they can do it?  And if they can’t, why are we going to draft them knowing they too could/would fail?  
 

And if you qualify it with ‘well Flus and Getsy’ will be gone so they new guy will have a better chance because of it’, then I’d counter with ‘what’s to say Justin couldn’t of given the same circumstances’?  “What if” (for example) they hire Harbaugh and he decides he can make it work for Justin with the caveat he’d want them to draft McCarthy as his potential heir apparent?  Harbaugh knew he could make it work for Krapernick and he did…Justin is unquestionably more talented.  And Harbaugh couldn’t beat him in college.  

[ChileBear]

33 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Tell me unequivocally who the Bears will draft that will play better than Justin has been. Stop using the ‘I can’t predict the future’ smoke cover and provide some stats like Adam does or support your opposing viewpoint with some numbers.  Who in this upcoming draft class has a better WINNING record than does Justin at the same point in his career?  What are you seeing from the play of Williams, Maye or any of the ‘top tier’ QBs that makes you sure they can do it?  And if they can’t, why are we going to draft them knowing they too could/would fail?  
 

And if you qualify it with ‘well Flus and Getsy’ will be gone so they new guy will have a better chance because of it’, then I’d counter with ‘what’s to say Justin couldn’t of given the same circumstances’?  “What if” (for example) they hire Harbaugh and he decides he can make it work for Justin with the caveat he’d want them to draft McCarthy as his potential heir apparent?  Harbaugh knew he could make it work for Krapernick and he did…Justin is unquestionably more talented.  And Harbaugh couldn’t beat him in college.  

I get your point Alaska, but do you think Justin will ever take us to the Super Bowl? I don't and he hasn't shown the HE has IT to beat teams. Hell, he was spotted a ten point lead yesterday and did nothing in the second half to convince me he's a winner. Talented, yes he has talent. QB talent? Nope. I think the smartest thing for us is to keep Fields, trade the No. 1 pick for more picks (another no. 1 for next year) and then draft a QB latter in the draft.

And Harbaugh is not going to be an option here because Warren was his enemy when he ran the Big Ten.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

10 minutes ago, ChileBear said:

I get your point Alaska, but do you think Justin will ever take us to the Super Bowl? I don't and he hasn't shown the HE has IT to beat teams. Hell, he was spotted a ten point lead yesterday and did nothing in the second half to convince me he's a winner. Talented, yes he has talent. QB talent? Nope. I think the smartest thing for us is to keep Fields, trade the No. 1 pick for more picks (another no. 1 for next year) and then draft a QB latter in the draft.

And Harbaugh is not going to be an option here because Warren was his enemy when he ran the Big Ten.

 

I think given the right circumstances 'yes' he could help us win a Super Bowl. Do you believe if Brock Purdy played for anyone else he'd be where he is right now?  Yes he hasn't won a Super Bowl but something tells me he could (and may) for the team he's playing for right now.  

Kaepernick was able get to a Super Bowl with a coach like Harbaugh and nearly won it after putting up 302 yards in the air (1 TD / 1 INT)  and another 62 yards rushing with another TD.  I only used Harbaugh as an example and am with you on the Warren relationship concern. Especially with the most recent scandal hanging over his (Harbaugh's) head I agree we probably won't see him Chicago anytime soon.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Tell me unequivocally who the Bears will draft that will play better than Justin has been. Stop using the ‘I can’t predict the future’ smoke cover and provide some stats like Adam does or support your opposing viewpoint with some numbers.  Who in this upcoming draft class has a better WINNING record than does Justin at the same point in his career?  What are you seeing from the play of Williams, Maye or any of the ‘top tier’ QBs that makes you sure they can do it?  And if they can’t, why are we going to draft them knowing they too could/would fail?  
 

And if you qualify it with ‘well Flus and Getsy’ will be gone so they new guy will have a better chance because of it’, then I’d counter with ‘what’s to say Justin couldn’t of given the same circumstances’?  “What if” (for example) they hire Harbaugh and he decides he can make it work for Justin with the caveat he’d want them to draft McCarthy as his potential heir apparent?  Harbaugh knew he could make it work for Krapernick and he did…Justin is unquestionably more talented.  And Harbaugh couldn’t beat him in college.  

Fields best trait is his escapability and his off script plays, but he still struggles with traits that are more important to a sustained offense (playing with timing, throwing to the MoF, pocket awareness/internal clock). Most QBs just need to be "mobile". 

Fields has yet to break off a super long run this year because teams have figured out how to contain him. Once that strength is neutralized, he is a below average QB. 

I hate the bad supporting cast or bad coaching argument when DeShaun Watson had a very similar supporting cast in his 2nd year, Hopkins and Fuller at WR and Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue (he needed the money) at RB. With that group, he threw for over 4100 yards, 26 TD, 9 INT and rushed for 551 yds and 5 TDs. He had 5 4th Quarter comebacks that season. We have lowered the bar so far for Fields, that we only want 3500 and 500 from him, yet in the last 4 games since coming back from injury he is averaging only 193 passing yards a game with 3 TD passes which is bottom 5 in the league over that period. Nothing has changed. 

[adam]

28 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I think given the right circumstances 'yes' he could help us win a Super Bowl. Do you believe if Brock Purdy played for anyone else he'd be where he is right now?  Yes he hasn't won a Super Bowl but something tells me he could (and may) for the team he's playing for right now.  

Kaepernick was able get to a Super Bowl with a coach like Harbaugh and nearly won it after putting up 302 yards in the air (1 TD / 1 INT)  and another 62 yards rushing with another TD.  I only used Harbaugh as an example and am with you on the Warren relationship concern. Especially with the most recent scandal hanging over his (Harbaugh's) head I agree we probably won't see him Chicago anytime soon.

That's the thing, if the player can only be good in the right circumstances, they are replaceable. Purdy is looking great, but Lance, Jimmy G, Nick Mullens, and Beathard all looked very pedestrian in the same offense over the last year. So Purdy would probably be good in most offenses, maybe not to his current level, but he wouldn't all of sudden be terrible. There are guys in the league doing more with less than Fields, which tells you where he falls. 

[Stinger226]

Why are you using Watson for your example ? He is not very good anymore, Fields is not going to be an elite QB, yet that is everyone's comparison. He will one day be a more than competent QB, once he gets with a coach like the one that works with Lamar Jackson, and guess what, he got better. We will end up drafting a QB every 2 year and then watch the team Justin plays for go to the playoffs every year. I want a better QB but which one is that ? There might be one in this draft but I dont think its Williams. Im on the plan to trade the first pick, keep Justin and draft a QB. If Poles likes the QB that much, let Fields play the year out. He will be trying to prove himself and we let a QB sit one more yr and start in 2025. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 minutes ago, adam said:

That's the thing, if the player can only be good in the right circumstances, they are replaceable

Then "who" replaces Fields?  And what circumstance makes that pick the next (first?) generational QB the Bears have needed all this time?  So far history shows the Bears can't and won't get it right... 

Jimmy G was the 9'ers QB in 2019 and they went 13-3 that year and in 2021 (the year before Purdy was drafted) they went 10-7 with Garoppolo and Lance as the QBs.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

keep Justin and draft a QB. If Poles likes the QB that much, let Fields play the year out. He will be trying to prove himself and we let a QB sit one more yr and start in 2025. 

I'm wondering when Justin would be more valuable to another team?  At the end of this season or next year (if) when the Bears draft another QB to compete against him?  (If they choose the path you suggest?  Of which I am in agreement with by the way).  

[Stinger226]

10 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I'm wondering when Justin would be more valuable to another team?  At the end of this season or next year (if) when the Bears draft another QB to compete against him?  (If they choose the path you suggest?  Of which I am in agreement with by the way).  

As it stands now, you might get a 3rd round pick if you trade him on draft day. You might get more during the season when half of the starters get injured. BUT it gives you time to see what the drafted QB can become. If he's ready trade Justin, if not you ride Justin, hopefully with a coach that designs a scheme to fit his traits.  As you keep building the team.