Fields-O-Meter

[Alaskan Grizzly]

4 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Its interesting. I added those other Bears QBs from over the years and Justin looks just terri ble beneath even the worst of them, but then, Trevor Lawrence is in the same neighborhood before getting better.

I know the data is adjusted in some way for different eras, and I wonder if that is making Fields look more terrible in the charts that I posted than is fair, since everyone from this modern class is so far below. Makes me wonder if the adjustments are fair.

I still think what i think about Fields from having watched the film, but Im wondering if the era to era comparisons on this site are fair.

Even still Fields now is at Trevor's lowest point. And Zach Wilson - wow.

Fields and Lawrence are sorta trending similarly.  Fields peaked about 15 games ago (which was higher than Lawrence at that point) and looks to have dropped the beginning of this season (plus lost four games to injury).  The data shows Lawrence has 14 games on Justin and I would agree if he (Justin) wins out he be trending the same as Trevor. 

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Curious to see if they had a collegiate version of this.  And how it translates from one to the other. 

Oh man, i think translating from college to the pros is impossible to do reliably. I think every QB has to grow in the NFL to survive, and you can guess at how well they'll take to the new league, but until they actually do it, that's literally the billion dollar question.

If someone could do just that, they could charge a ransom for the information. GMs get paid pretty well to approximate nothing more than a decent guess at this, and they get full staffs of scouts and analysts to do it. And they're still so hit and miss.

I'd love to see a set of numbers that you could trust on this, a trend you could apply, but i dont think one really exists. i know a lot of people try to find a way to crunch the numbers to get a definitive answer to this, but they cant.

I do think it's easier to guess at who won't make it, you can rule some out, but this is THE big question in a league full of multi billion dollar franchises.

You could find a college version of this, but as far as how they relate, I doubt there is any algorithm that could find any reliable predictive trend.

[BearFan PHX]

9 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Fields and Lawrence are sorta trending similarly.  Fields peaked about 15 games ago (which was higher than Lawrence at that point) and looks to have dropped the beginning of this season (plus lost four games to injury).  The data shows Lawrence has 14 games on Justin and I would agree if he (Justin) wins out he be trending the same as Trevor. 

I dunno, it looks like Justin's line is pretty far under Trevor's except for that one hump where they crossed before Trevor took off?

And I admit I really don't know what elo IS, so I may be missing something fundamental? If JF wins out, do you know what his elo number would be? I think it includes a bunch of stats too, not just winning, more like a different kind of QBR, but I am pretty ignorant of what it is, or how the chart works. For example, if you could have one game with a QBR of 0 and the next week of 150, would the ELO jump vertically, or does it slope like a chess rating, like a rolling weighted average?

In any case, you know my argument about reading and timing and all that, and that JF winning games in different ways doesnt really address this concern directly?

We get to see another one tomorrow, for sure.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

16 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dunno, it looks like Justin's line is pretty far under Trevor's except for that one hump where they crossed before Trevor took off?

And I admit I really don't know what elo IS, so I may be missing something fundamental? If JF wins out, do you know what his elo number would be? I think it includes a bunch of stats too, not just winning, more like a different kind of QBR, but I am pretty ignorant of what it is, or how the chart works. For example, if you could have one game with a QBR of 0 and the next week of 150, would the ELO jump vertically, or does it slope like a chess rating, like a rolling weighted average?

In any case, you know my argument about reading and timing and all that, and that JF winning games in different ways doesnt really address this concern directly?

We get to see another one tomorrow, for sure.

I will say it tells a story and you can see as long as you win and put up numbers, the graph keeps elevating.  If Fields has a 400 yd, 5 TD game, his graph wouldn't hit a Rodgers or Manning level, but it would make his trend have a nice spike. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I will say it tells a story and you can see as long as you win and put up numbers, the graph keeps elevating.  If Fields has a 400 yd, 5 TD game, his graph wouldn't hit a Rodgers or Manning level, but it would make his trend have a nice spike.

Good one - yeah I think you're right, and it proves it's a cumulative rolling average kind of thing, not a week to week raw data thing. Thank you. Rodgers and Manning's slopes are amazing. The lack of valleys probably means they not only play at a high level, but they do it consistently week to week.

And however it works, if you consistently put up good performances, that's gonna make your line go up for sure.

If Fields can consistently have 300+ yard 3 TD games, he would start to elevate, and of course if he did that, we'd all want to keep him!

So far in his career, he's gone over 200 seven times, and only got over 300 once, against Denver this year, in a game we lost, the week after Denver gave up 70 points. And that seems to have made his bump go up there for a while.

But Fields is talented, and there is no way to know what tomorrow brings, I admit.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Good one - yeah I think you're right, and it proves it's a cumulative rolling average kind of thing, not a week to week raw data thing. Thank you. Rodgers and Manning's slopes are amazing. The lack of valleys probably means they not only play at a high level, but they do it consistently week to week.

And however it works, if you consistently put up good performances, that's gonna make your line go up for sure.

If Fields can consistently have 300+ yard 3 TD games, he would start to elevate, and of course if he did that, we'd all want to keep him!

So far in his career, he's gone over 200 seven times, and only got over 300 once, against Denver this year, in a game we lost, the week after Denver gave up 70 points. And that seems to have made his bump go up there for a while.

But Fields is talented, and there is no way to know what tomorrow brings, I admit.

Fields and the Bears O would need to consistently become good.  Even Joe Burrow is lagging behind becoming Manning good.  The Bears can draft a guy that I believe would have a higher starting line, just by the pieces they are putting in place.  This GM believes in building the oline, something that was neglected for decades. Do they have the right coaches to design plays and teach the QB to do it is the next question. 

[adam]

Sort of on topic, do you remember the slide that the Bears showed where they rated their players and Claypool, Velus, and Fields were their top rated players based on athleticism?

It is interesting that the top 3 rated players may all end up off the team and as potential busts. To me, there are certain positions where that matters more than others and it seems that QB and WR are not two of them.

 

[Stinger226]

22 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Fields and the Bears O would need to consistently become good.  Even Joe Burrow is lagging behind becoming Manning good.  The Bears can draft a guy that I believe would have a higher starting line, just by the pieces they are putting in place.  This GM believes in building the oline, something that was neglected for decades. Do they have the right coaches to design plays and teach the QB to do it is the next question. 

If you add a rookie QB with the same coaching and not upgrade the roster, you are not going to get Franchise QB stats. Poles upgraded the roster by adding Sweat , since he came here we are 3-3. Upgrading the roster matters. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

20 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

If you add a rookie QB with the same coaching and not upgrade the roster, you are not going to get Franchise QB stats. Poles upgraded the roster by adding Sweat , since he came here we are 3-3. Upgrading the roster matters. 

With another draft and FA class, they will upgrade the offense again.  They need a compliment to Moore, dradt MHJ ans that would eventually slide Moore to WR2 and would be a scary pair.  A vet FA like Higgens as a WR3 is possible too. Center needs a long term upgrade and is a key to KC/Phi offense success.  Braxton Jones needs to add strength because he gives up too much space for my likings. I'd love to upgrade with a Wright type talent but can see them staying with Jones to use your chips to upgrade bigger holes.  Coaching is going to be the wildcard. The defense has elevated, the offense not so much. I think Getsy can be decent but he is not brave enough to leave his philosophies to design the offense around the players. He needs a strong run game and a clean pocket with a QB that is on page with his receivers.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

The graph website is need to compare careers. We mention Drew Brees starting off slow. Compare...

https://www.nfeloapp.com/qb-rankings/era-adjusted/

 

[adam]

Fields definitely can still turn the trend around, but it can't keep waiting another game or another season, he needs to have a dominant game today. Then do it again against ATL, then in 3 weeks, do it one more time to close out the year. That would really send a statement.

[Stinger226]

20 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

With another draft and FA class, they will upgrade the offense again.  They need a compliment to Moore, dradt MHJ ans that would eventually slide Moore to WR2 and would be a scary pair.  A vet FA like Higgens as a WR3 is possible too. Center needs a long term upgrade and is a key to KC/Phi offense success.  Braxton Jones needs to add strength because he gives up too much space for my likings. I'd love to upgrade with a Wright type talent but can see them staying with Jones to use your chips to upgrade bigger holes.  Coaching is going to be the wildcard. The defense has elevated, the offense not so much. I think Getsy can be decent but he is not brave enough to leave his philosophies to design the offense around the players. He needs a strong run game and a clean pocket with a QB that is on page with his receivers.

I agree with everything you said. Fields is  compared to his past that had sketchy coaching and a sketchy roster. so my question would be, IF a big IF,  Fields had better coaching and a better roster, would he look better?

[ASHKUM BEAR]

9 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I agree with everything you said. Fields is  compared to his past that had sketchy coaching and a sketchy roster. so my question would be, IF a big IF,  Fields had better coaching and a better roster, would he look better?

Undoubtedly he would.  I think they have started to put pieces together, but it requires yearly investments to keep it running at a top level.  Like dirt track racing, you have a limited budget because it is more of a hobby, but if you keep putting in high end parts with a new or vet driver, you at least have a car capable of winning.  A young driver will make mistakes and might wreck,  but put in a vet like Jeff Gordan and that car wins almost every race.  Jeff Gordan in a run down car with bald tires might keep the car in the middle, but that is by driving the car within its limits. 

[BearFan PHX]

I still dont see Fields regularly reading through his progression and throwing the ball to the open man at the point the route is designed to break open.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I still dont see Fields regularly reading through his progression and throwing the ball to the open man at the point the route is designed to break open.

That is something he needs to overcome with trust in the line.  He knows he can bail, so it isn't coming easy for him. The sad part is the Bears did little years 1 and 2 for him and he had to rely on his legs.  This year you can see he is trying to stay in the pocket but still feels the pressure as his first reaction is to bail. Watch his reaction as he shrinks and loses downfield vision when the pocket starts to shrink.  His inability to release on 1st or 2nd reads is also an issue after the scripted plays are through.  I think it goes back to him only trusting his legs which if he doesn't overcome will be his exit. I would love to see him with MHJ a good Center and see if he can become something in the league, here or elsewhere.

[BearFan PHX]

22 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

That is something he needs to overcome with trust in the line.  He knows he can bail, so it isn't coming easy for him. The sad part is the Bears did little years 1 and 2 for him and he had to rely on his legs.  This year you can see he is trying to stay in the pocket but still feels the pressure as his first reaction is to bail. Watch his reaction as he shrinks and loses downfield vision when the pocket starts to shrink.  His inability to release on 1st or 2nd reads is also an issue after the scripted plays are through.  I think it goes back to him only trusting his legs which if he doesn't overcome will be his exit. I would love to see him with MHJ a good Center and see if he can become something in the league, here or elsewhere.

this is also part of the argument for having new coaches if you draft a new QB. when the coaches are failing and on the way out the door, you just ruin the confidence of young QBs.

All that said though, there are myriad examples of Fields with a clean pocket looking right at wide open first read WRs and not pulling the trigger. And you cant just put this on the Bears since it was the number one criticism of him coming out of college too.

If he throws for 4 TDs on the run today it isnt going to change my mind. But if he sits in the pocket and makes reads consistently, that is going to be the road to success for him here or wherever he goes.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 minute ago, BearFan PHX said:

If he throws for 4 TDs on the run today it isnt going to change my mind. But if he sits in the pocket and makes reads consistently, that is going to be the road to success for him here or wherever he goes.

If he throws four TDs regardless from the pocket, rolling out or scrambling that’s generally called ‘winning football’.  

[BearFan PHX]

4 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

If he throws four TDs regardless from the pocket, rolling out or scrambling that’s generally called ‘winning football’.  

if you can do it regularly against good teams, yes.

But my point is that you can beat bad teams with hero ball but will never beat good teams in the playoffs that way. So if Fields manages to have a game or two where he does that, I cant really call that progress.

If on the other hand, he throws only 2 TDs, but moves the chains consistently with on time reads and throws, THEN I will definitely call that progress. Thats where the difference between stats and context are for me.

[Mongo3451]

It's my belief, that you will see the ceiling of what Justin could be, tomorrow night, when Lamar plays against the 49ers.  It's also why, I believe, that type of QB can succeed, but never win the big one.  If Lamar proves me wrong, it's a positive for Justin...

[BearFan PHX]

20 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

It's my belief, that you will see the ceiling of what Justin could be, tomorrow night, when Lamar plays against the 49ers.  It's also why, I believe, that type of QB can succeed, but never win the big one.  If Lamar proves me wrong, it's a positive for Justin...

I agree with you about style ceilings.

I do want to make this distinction though - there is nothing wrong with being a great runner, extending plays etc. All the things Fields does well are incredible positives. Given two QBs of equal pocket ability, one with Justin's extra skills and one without, Ill take the one with all day long. Justin's extra skills are incredible.

But a QB also has to be able to make reads in rhythm, otherwise theres no point to even having plays or routes or anything.

I havent seen Lamar play much at all, so I dont know if he is better than Fields at reading and throwing in rhythm.

Basically, Im not against QBs that are great at hero ball when the play breaks down at ALL. It's an amazing thing to add to your arsenal. But it has to be in addition to the core skills of being a QB, it cannot replace them.

If Lamar makes reads and runs, then that's awesome. If he only runs like Justin, then I think your point about testing ceilings is dead on.

I'll add this too - simply comparing completion % stats and stuff wont really tell the story on this. If Fields is on the run and makes a completion, it's an incredible positive, but it isnt the same as making reads in rhythm. If Justin could do that too, he would be one of the best QBs in the league and I'd be for signing him to a big long terms deal.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

18 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

It's my belief, that you will see the ceiling of what Justin could be, tomorrow night, when Lamar plays against the 49ers.  It's also why, I believe, that type of QB can succeed, but never win the big one.  If Lamar proves me wrong, it's a positive for Justin...

I think this is going to be a preview of the Superbowl. 

[Stinger226]

For every argument you want to put forth , you can find an example where it contradicts that. The stats cant be disputed, Is Fields good enough yet no, I dont think anyone that supports Justin says he is a tier 1 QB. I dont think anyone will argue that there hasnt been flashes of him getting better. He is a hard worker, a team leader, and has special rushing talent, yes. The argument comes down to will a rookie QB be better than some growth he might show with a better roster and hopefully a better coach. Since we havent got all the information on the draft able QBs , we wont have that answer until April. We almost lost the first pick today but our great friends up north won in the  last minute.  That pick  1  isn't guaranteed yet. Byce Young was the highest rated QB last year, he doesnt look like a Franchise QB in his first yr. , maybe in a few yrs. Lots of experts tell you Williams is the guy but we wont be able to know that for a yr or two.  if he has a B Young season, boy is next yr going to be interesting.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

I’d be curious to see stats on how players like Lamar, Mahomes and even Hurts do as “traditional (pocket passing) QBs versus their own version of “hero QBIng”.  I saw a graphic the other day where had it not been for the “tush push” and the number of TDs it has generated for Hurts he’d essentially be Fields.  
 

We have seen what happens when Mahomes hasn’t had good receivers this year.  And when his starting line isn’t available when he literally ran for his life during the SB he lost a few years ago. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

If you can do it regularly against good teams, yes.

So far Williams (USC) has shown he’s challenged against better teams ans especially those who are ranked. How will that translate to the NFL?  Probably not well.  

[BearFan PHX]

11 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’d be curious to see stats on how players like Lamar, Mahomes and even Hurts do as “traditional (pocket passing) QBs versus their own version of “hero QBIng”.  I saw a graphic the other day where had it not been for the “tush push” and the number of TDs it has generated for Hurts he’d essentially be Fields.  
 

We have seen what happens when Mahomes hasn’t had good receivers this year.  And when his starting line isn’t available when he literally ran for his life during the SB he lost a few years ago. 

If you do find stats on that please share them, because i would love to see them - it would answer a lot of questions for me.