Fields-O-Meter

[BearFan PHX]

20 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

To borrow a quote from the late Dennis Greene, to crown CJ Stroud’s ass right now might be a little immature. His team is only one (or two) game(s) ahead of Chicago and he hasn’t played in the last two (??) games. Before that he threw for a total of 91 yards to the NYJ.  
 

To further exacerbate the conversation of bust drafts, the one thing I’d prefer to avoid is become the next iteration of the Browns.  Since 1999 they’ve drafted 5 QBs (two as 1st overalls) and have nothing to show for it. The guy they’re stumbling into the playoffs with is a nearly 40 year old former 1st round pick who until a few weeks ago was sitting on a couch somewhere.  
 

 

all true, Im not saying Stroud is a known winner, included that stuff to say that I admit making a QB draft choice is difficult.

To my way of thinking, Fields is known (in my view) to not be the guy past a certain level. I know I want our team to go beyond that certain level. I admit that its really hard to know what you're getting with a new rookie QB. But it's also the only way to find someone who is beyond that level.

So how to balance those concerns is hard, and I get everyone's take on it, whatever side theyre on.

It just seems like Id rather take a chance on greatness than to stay with something short of greatness because I'm afraid the next one might be worse.

It aint easy.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

To borrow a quote from the late Dennis Greene, to crown CJ Stroud’s ass right now might be a little immature. His team is only one (or two) game(s) ahead of Chicago and he hasn’t played in the last two (??) games. Before that he threw for a total of 91 yards to the NYJ.  
 

To further exacerbate the conversation of bust drafts, the one thing I’d prefer to avoid is become the next iteration of the Browns.  Since 1999 they’ve drafted 5 QBs (two as 1st overalls) and have nothing to show for it. The guy they’re stumbling into the playoffs with is a nearly 40 year old former 1st round pick who until a few weeks ago was sitting on a couch somewhere.  
 

 

With all that you said, the top raterd teams in the National conference have a 7th rounder, 2nd rounder, 4th rounder and a first round QB that rejected by his first team leading thier teams. Something the good teams have in common are good rosters and good coaches. We arent there yet, it appears that a good roster and good coach is the common denominator, not a 1st round QB.

[BearFan PHX]

Good QBs matter and are generally found at the top of the first round.

[adam]

It is going to be a tough decision, and HUGE one for Poles.

Looking back at the Arizona game, it is more of the same. Blame to go around. Penalties and lack of blocking on the O-Line, terrible playcalling on Getsy, zero receivers open, Fields not hitting open guys when they are open.

So if you replaced only the QB, the results will be very similar. They are going to have to address all of those. Either Fields is going to have to improve more or they will draft a QB who they believe can do the things he is not doing. 

 

This is still an interesting comparison given the context, also consider the OCs for both teams:

Leading MVP Candidate: 223.8 y/g, 19 TD, 7 INT, 52.4 y/g, 5 TD, 6 FL (15 games), TD Rate: 1.6, 0.8 T/O Rate
Justin Fields: 208.8 y/g, 15 TD, 8 INT, 53.9 y/g, 3 TD, 4 FL  (10 games), TD Rate 1.8, 1.2 T/O Rate

So Fields is 15 passing yards per game and an INT every 4 games away from playing at a MVP level with Getsy as his OC. Two of Fields INTs came on hail marys and one literally hit the ground and should not have counted anyway. 

I will say, if Lamar wins MVP, I think the Bears stick with Fields. The comps are too close not too. 

[Stinger226]

59 minutes ago, adam said:

It is going to be a tough decision, and HUGE one for Poles.

Looking back at the Arizona game, it is more of the same. Blame to go around. Penalties and lack of blocking on the O-Line, terrible playcalling on Getsy, zero receivers open, Fields not hitting open guys when they are open.

So if you replaced only the QB, the results will be very similar. They are going to have to address all of those. Either Fields is going to have to improve more or they will draft a QB who they believe can do the things he is not doing. 

 

This is still an interesting comparison given the context, also consider the OCs for both teams:

Leading MVP Candidate: 223.8 y/g, 19 TD, 7 INT, 52.4 y/g, 5 TD, 6 FL (15 games), TD Rate: 1.6, 0.8 T/O Rate
Justin Fields: 208.8 y/g, 15 TD, 8 INT, 53.9 y/g, 3 TD, 4 FL  (10 games), TD Rate 1.8, 1.2 T/O Rate

So Fields is 15 passing yards per game and an INT every 4 games away from playing at a MVP level with Getsy as his OC. Two of Fields INTs came on hail marys and one literally hit the ground and should not have counted anyway. 

I will say, if Lamar wins MVP, I think the Bears stick with Fields. The comps are too close not too. 

I like the way you give argument on both sides of the Fields conversation. I posted a thread on my QB opinions, and I'm not going to bounce back and forth every week after another game. Until I get more information, I'm interested in Caleb Williams. I love Justin Fields but compared the situation to playing cards. Justin is 2 pair. You can  win some hands with that but I will play for the full house. Next year, 10 wins with Justin, probably not the same with Williams but yr 2 may bring us a SB contention.  Justin is not Lamar Jackson but he can get close to that level with the right offense.

If Poles drafts Williams or who he chooses as a better QB, I'm all in. If he retains Fields, I'm all in on that to. I don't have to condemn one or the other because it's not about being right it's supporting what Poles does ,  what's best for the future of the Bears.  I can root for us to win and still understand that losing would give us a better  draft pick.

We were lucky to get the first pick last year, thank you Lovie, if we get the #1 pick this year, luck will be involved because it has nothing to do with how many games we win. We are 4-2 in our last 6 games but as I listen to the radio this morning, I couldn't tell by the conversation that we won.

If we end up with MHJ or Bowers and get another top 5 pick next year , that would be awesome. The situation still exists that Justin stays and we still get another QB. That may be the best option.

[killakrzydav]

Man those numbers. 

 

Drafting is so much more fun without selecting a qb...just saying

[killakrzydav]

Justin Fiels parallel?

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

2 hours ago, adam said:

It is going to be a tough decision, and HUGE one for Poles.

Looking back at the Arizona game, it is more of the same. Blame to go around. Penalties and lack of blocking on the O-Line, terrible playcalling on Getsy, zero receivers open, Fields not hitting open guys when they are open.

So if you replaced only the QB, the results will be very similar. They are going to have to address all of those. Either Fields is going to have to improve more or they will draft a QB who they believe can do the things he is not doing. 

 

This is still an interesting comparison given the context, also consider the OCs for both teams:

Leading MVP Candidate: 223.8 y/g, 19 TD, 7 INT, 52.4 y/g, 5 TD, 6 FL (15 games), TD Rate: 1.6, 0.8 T/O Rate
Justin Fields: 208.8 y/g, 15 TD, 8 INT, 53.9 y/g, 3 TD, 4 FL  (10 games), TD Rate 1.8, 1.2 T/O Rate

So Fields is 15 passing yards per game and an INT every 4 games away from playing at a MVP level with Getsy as his OC. Two of Fields INTs came on hail marys and one literally hit the ground and should not have counted anyway. 

I will say, if Lamar wins MVP, I think the Bears stick with Fields. The comps are too close not too. 

On Twitter, many say JF cannot play in the 4th.  I believe the coaches are handcuffing him by playing conservative to protect the lead or not risk a turnover.  That has lead the Bears to 4 wins as of late.  It has also brought a couple losses that we should have won.  

I still think by signing Fields to a 5th year option gives the Bears a vet QB and time to draft and develop another QB without disrupting the continuity this team is building.  It might mean missing on Williams, but Williams has dropped hints he doesn't want to play here and what good does that do by drafting him. Sell that pick to the highest bid and take a QB down the board that would be happy to be Bear.

[Stinger226]

22 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

On Twitter, many say JF cannot play in the 4th.  I believe the coaches are handcuffing him by playing conservative to protect the lead or not risk a turnover.  That has lead the Bears to 4 wins as of late.  It has also brought a couple losses that we should have won.  

I still think by signing Fields to a 5th year option gives the Bears a vet QB and time to draft and develop another QB without disrupting the continuity this team is building.  It might mean missing on Williams, but Williams has dropped hints he doesn't want to play here and what good does that do by drafting him. Sell that pick to the highest bid and take a QB down the board that would be happy to be Bear.

Im in to the evaluate Williams mode now, but do not discount anything you said.

[adam]

3 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

On Twitter, many say JF cannot play in the 4th.  I believe the coaches are handcuffing him by playing conservative to protect the lead or not risk a turnover.  That has lead the Bears to 4 wins as of late.  It has also brought a couple losses that we should have won.  

I still think by signing Fields to a 5th year option gives the Bears a vet QB and time to draft and develop another QB without disrupting the continuity this team is building.  It might mean missing on Williams, but Williams has dropped hints he doesn't want to play here and what good does that do by drafting him. Sell that pick to the highest bid and take a QB down the board that would be happy to be Bear.

He has the most INTs in the 4th Quarter in the NFL and he missed 4 games. He has not learned how to close yet in the NFL like he did in college.

[adam]

4 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

Man those numbers. 

 

Drafting is so much more fun without selecting a qb...just saying

I know man, this is soo tough, getting 2x blue chippers in one year is such a massive haul when you don't need a QB. You can also trade one for an even bigger haul and still draft a top 10 player. It's a wild position to be in, but the good thing is there is almost no wrong answer. 

[adam]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I like the way you give argument on both sides of the Fields conversation. I posted a thread on my QB opinions, and I'm not going to bounce back and forth every week after another game. Until I get more information, I'm interested in Caleb Williams. I love Justin Fields but compared the situation to playing cards. Justin is 2 pair. You can  win some hands with that but I will play for the full house. Next year, 10 wins with Justin, probably not the same with Williams but yr 2 may bring us a SB contention.  Justin is not Lamar Jackson but he can get close to that level with the right offense.

If Poles drafts Williams or who he chooses as a better QB, I'm all in. If he retains Fields, I'm all in on that to. I don't have to condemn one or the other because it's not about being right it's supporting what Poles does ,  what's best for the future of the Bears.  I can root for us to win and still understand that losing would give us a better  draft pick.

We were lucky to get the first pick last year, thank you Lovie, if we get the #1 pick this year, luck will be involved because it has nothing to do with how many games we win. We are 4-2 in our last 6 games but as I listen to the radio this morning, I couldn't tell by the conversation that we won.

If we end up with MHJ or Bowers and get another top 5 pick next year , that would be awesome. The situation still exists that Justin stays and we still get another QB. That may be the best option.

The biggest concern is the running makes him very high risk, and you can't live and die by the amazing highlight reel scrambles. It's almost like a guy who can do 360 slam dunks, but then can't hit a shot to save his life. You keep seeing the dunks on ESPN, but his box score shows 12 pts on 5-20 shooting. 

[BearFan PHX]

52 minutes ago, adam said:

like a guy who can do 360 slam dunks, but then can't hit a shot to save his life. You keep seeing the dunks on ESPN, but his box score shows 12 pts on 5-20 shooting. 

THIS 100%. This is what Ive been saying and it seems obvious to me.

It's not the same as a guy who was 5-20 shooting and then elevated to 12-20. That guy youd wonder if he was gonna keep getting better.

This is more like the 360 dunks keep getting better and the shooting stays 5-20.

Tell me why Fields is a Super Bowl MVP, not why it's not his fault.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I know man, this is soo tough, getting 2x blue chippers in one year is such a massive haul when you don't need a QB. You can also trade one for an even bigger haul and still draft a top 10 player. It's a wild position to be in, but the good thing is there is almost no wrong answer. 

I suppose I can live with it if you get a good 1st rounder next year than I guess it could be one more year of punting on qb and seeing if that much talent makes it better. But almost zero chance that future 1st ends up a #1 pick. 

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I know man, this is soo tough, getting 2x blue chippers in one year is such a massive haul when you don't need a QB. You can also trade one for an even bigger haul and still draft a top 10 player. It's a wild position to be in, but the good thing is there is almost no wrong answer. 

The wrong answer for Poles will be discussed  after we see one year from now what choice he made and how well that person did.

[BearFan PHX]

18 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I suppose I can live with it if you get a good 1st rounder next year than I guess it could be one more year of punting on qb and seeing if that much talent makes it better. But almost zero chance that future 1st ends up a #1 pick. 

all true, and the one year of punting not only costs you that top first round QB, but youve burned a year of contracts for the players youve just put together. And if we have another uneven mediocre year next year, Poles will get the boot along with the people he kept.

I like Poles, and i think hes making good decisions, so I really dont see Poles keeping Fields around unless he's decided to pick up the 5th year and really commit to JF long term. And I personally think that's foolish. I can see why people arent sure on Fields. I think everyone thinks that to some extent. But we punted last year to see another year of Fields. And I didnt see anything that tells me this is the guy. Punting again just seems like being afraid to make a decision. And being in love with all the other things you could do with that #1 pick.

This team is ready for an ascending QB that can run an offense as designed. It's time.

[CrackerDog]

I’m 100% in for Fields but would draft someone like McCarthy in the third.  In the first round I only trade back to the extent I can still draft MHJ.   Him and DJ with Kmet and our core of RBs could be deadly.   Use the other top picks on edge or O Line (best available).  

I just don’t think they can walk away from Fields right now.  Williams is far from a sure thing.   And Fields would get you what in draft capital?

[adam]

1 hour ago, CrackerDog said:

I’m 100% in for Fields but would draft someone like McCarthy in the third.  In the first round I only trade back to the extent I can still draft MHJ.   Him and DJ with Kmet and our core of RBs could be deadly.   Use the other top picks on edge or O Line (best available).  

I just don’t think they can walk away from Fields right now.  Williams is far from a sure thing.   And Fields would get you what in draft capital?

Sam Darnold was traded for a 2nd, 4th, and 6th. Trey Lance trade got a 4th rounder. So I would assume they would get nothing less than a 3rd rounder and another pick. 

[adam]

One way to look at this is from other team's perspectives. The Bears need Fields to be top 12, otherwise, any other ranking makes him just average or below average, and you don't pay those guys.

Based on performance from this season, here are QBs/teams that would not make Fields their starter if they got him for free (Bears cut him):

Josh Allen/BUF
Dak Prescott/DAL
Tua Tagovailoa/MIA
Lamar Jackson/BAL
Justin Herbert/LAC
Jalen Hurts/PHI
Patrick Mahomes/KC
Jared Goff/DET
CJ Stroud/HOU
Trevor Lawrence/JAX
Joe Burrow/CIN
Baker Mayfield/TB
Brock Purdy/SF

Then there are others that would depend on other factors, but I don't think these teams would switch to Fields if it was just based on current performance:

Geno Smith/SEA
Matt Stafford/LAR
Kirk Cousins/MIN
Russell Wilson/DEN
Kyler Murray/ARZ

That is 18 QBs and I did not include Jordan Love or guys like Watson/Flacco who even CLE would have a hard decision on who they would want today. The fact that you can get thru that many names is concerning. From our perspective, we may not want Goff or Mayfield, but they have played so much better than Fields that it would be hard for me to see those teams starting Fields over those guys.

[BearFan PHX]

I also have a hard time thinking of Lamar Jackson as a Fields comp.

They both run and create outside the pocket. That's why people compare them.

And honestly, I love what Fields does outside the pocket too. He's amazing. It's in no way a detraction from Fields to me.

The problem of course is that he doesn't run the plays the way they are designed from the pocket. Jackson does.

It's not the running that's the issue, it's the lack of pocket passing in rhythm. The plays are designed a certain way, and if you rarely pull the trigger when the play is designed to get the receiver open, then it's just sandlot ball. And being a world class sandlot baller is great, for Fields AND Jackson. But you gotta also be able to play QB within the system. And Fields just doesn't do that the way Jackson, Mahomes, Allen, Hurts and others do.

If he did, or showed progress at that, I'd be a huge fan of Fields.

But all these arguments of stats, or maybe thinking I'm down on the running obscure the question I'm asking. Can Fields run the offense as designed? And if not, how can we realistically think he will take us to a Super Bowl win?

Some will say that we need a new OC (we do!) and that the new OC will put in an offense that works for Fields. Surely he would make use of Fields' legs, as Getsy has also tried to do. There will be rollouts and screens and plays that force the ball out of Fields' hands without making a read. Getsy's done that too.

But somewhere in this new system, there will be plays where a QB has to take his drop, read a defense and let go of the ball to the right guy on time. And it doesnt matter what those routes are, I dont see any evidence that Fields will do that.

So I dont really see Jackson as a comp. He shares some outrageous skills with Fields (JF is better) but he also has some core QB skills that FIelds doesn't. And that's what my issue has been all along with JF.

[adam]

15 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I also have a hard time thinking of Lamar Jackson as a Fields comp.

They both run and create outside the pocket. That's why people compare them.

And honestly, I love what Fields does outside the pocket too. He's amazing. It's in no way a detraction from Fields to me.

The problem of course is that he doesn't run the plays the way they are designed from the pocket. Jackson does.

It's not the running that's the issue, it's the lack of pocket passing in rhythm. The plays are designed a certain way, and if you rarely pull the trigger when the play is designed to get the receiver open, then it's just sandlot ball. And being a world class sandlot baller is great, for Fields AND Jackson. But you gotta also be able to play QB within the system. And Fields just doesn't do that the way Jackson, Mahomes, Allen, Hurts and others do.

If he did, or showed progress at that, I'd be a huge fan of Fields.

But all these arguments of stats, or maybe thinking I'm down on the running obscure the question I'm asking. Can Fields run the offense as designed? And if not, how can we realistically think he will take us to a Super Bowl win?

Some will say that we need a new OC (we do!) and that the new OC will put in an offense that works for Fields. Surely he would make use of Fields' legs, as Getsy has also tried to do. There will be rollouts and screens and plays that force the ball out of Fields' hands without making a read. Getsy's done that too.

But somewhere in this new system, there will be plays where a QB has to take his drop, read a defense and let go of the ball to the right guy on time. And it doesnt matter what those routes are, I dont see any evidence that Fields will do that.

So I dont really see Jackson as a comp. He shares some outrageous skills with Fields (JF is better) but he also has some core QB skills that FIelds doesn't. And that's what my issue has been all along with JF.

Yeah for sure, and the timing of plays matter too. There is no comparison between Lamar and Justin in the 4th Quarter. 

Lamar Jackson has a 94.0 Passer Rating with 25 TD, 12 INT in the 4Q for his career, 20th all-time. Justin Fields? 204th out of 214 qualifying QBs with a 60.6, 10 TD, 16 INT.  Rex Grossman came in at #205 at 60.4. Trubisky? 126th with a 77.2. Cutler? 66th with a 83.8. 

It is hard to even quantify how bad that is. There are very few QBs near him that were even long term starters. Trent Dilfer, Gus Frerotte, and Kordell Stewart were the only 3 other QBs under 70.0 who played in 100 games in their career. 

 

[adam]

So the more this is peeled apart, the more things are stacking up against Fields staying. He hits on a lot of intangibles, which makes him so enticing, but with the game on the line, he actually plays the worst. I don't think two good games at the end of another lost season is going to move the needle that much.

I also think Fields knows it too. On that long run down the sideline, he could've easily scored with Scott in front of him making a block, but he decided to slide instead. So for all the Fields fans, Sunday is probably his last game in a Bears uniform at Soldier Field. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I also think Fields knows it too. On that long run down the sideline, he could've easily scored with Scott in front of him making a block, but he decided to slide instead. So for all the Fields fans, Sunday is probably his last game in a Bears uniform at Soldier Field. 

Fields definitely knows it - and thats a huge clue as to whats gonna happen. And I dont mean he knows it because he must know it because he must agree with my analysis. I think he knows it because of answers he's been giving in press conferences and interviews recently.

This past week he said (paraphrasing) "I dont care about people who love what I can do, I only care about people who love who I am" - that's the kind of philosophical answer you never want to hear coming from the mouth of a 24 year old professional athlete. It's true, and a great thing for a 60 year old man to think as his power in the world may fade a bit, and he starts to consider what's truly important in life.

It's also the kind of thing someone going through a divorce might think. It's definitely mentally healthy, but it's also a resignation of someone who is losing something. A 24 year old athlete oughtta be competitive and maybe even angry. Perhaps not to the TV cameras, but imagine Tom Brady or Mike Tyson saying something like that when they were 24. No way.

And I dont fault him for it. I actually think it's healthy, I just think it comes from his agent telling him which way the wind is blowing. I see it as evidence that his camp doesn't think he will be retained.

And if that's a fact to add to the puzzle, what does it say for Eberflus' future? Would you bring a rookie QB in to what might be the last year of a coaching staff AGAIN for the third time in a row? And what kind of OC can you really get when it looks like Eberflus might be gone after next year?

I think the odds are that Fields and Eberflus are gone. I definitely dont know anything for sure. I just think it's a pretty good guess.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Yeah for sure, and the timing of plays matter too. There is no comparison between Lamar and Justin in the 4th Quarter. 

Lamar Jackson has a 94.0 Passer Rating with 25 TD, 12 INT in the 4Q for his career, 20th all-time. Justin Fields? 204th out of 214 qualifying QBs with a 60.6, 10 TD, 16 INT.  Rex Grossman came in at #205 at 60.4. Trubisky? 126th with a 77.2. Cutler? 66th with a 83.8. 

It is hard to even quantify how bad that is. There are very few QBs near him that were even long term starters. Trent Dilfer, Gus Frerotte, and Kordell Stewart were the only 3 other QBs under 70.0 who played in 100 games in their career. 

 

what is JF's 4th quarter rating for this season only? I have been giving JF and Eberflus a total pass on last year.

[adam]

47 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

what is JF's 4th quarter rating for this season only? I have been giving JF and Eberflus a total pass on last year.

41-80, 463 yds, 51.3%, 5.8 Y/A, 3 TD, 6 INT, 50.2 Passer Rating

So worse than his career averages.