BearFan PHX Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, adam said: Hmm, let me see. Very true, but how much of that is on Getsy vs Fields. That is tough to separate. oh yeah, I'm not looking for blame - just more positive evidence that Fields has the skill set we need. I want to be sure I think keeping him is a good idea. Im trying to sell myself on it, but Im gonna be cynical of numbers because of his unorthodox style. Im not counting the times things went wrong, Im looking for evidence of him doing the pocket passer in rhythm after the first 15 plays thing more. Plays where he completes a ball from the pocket - especially not to the sideline, less than 3 seconds after the snap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 2 hours ago, AZ54 said: It seems obvious to me (just my dumb opinion) that if Fields can throw for 1300 yds to DJ Moore in a season then he can certainly do that on the other side of the field with another good WR. Add two of them or a good 2nd TE to compliment Kmet and then a defense has an awful lot to think about. Then fix the early pressure issues up the middle. With this I would completely agree. FWIW my conspiracist side says everyone on the Bears knows what’s going to happen next season. When I say “everyone” I mean; Poles, Warren, Flus, Fields and ownership. And they are all sworn to secrecy to appear that they don’t know what will happen so as to drive up the price of the 1st round pick and get all they can for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 3 hours ago, AZ54 said: It seems obvious to me (just my dumb opinion) that if Fields can throw for 1300 yds to DJ Moore in a season then he can certainly do that on the other side of the field with another good WR. Add two of them or a good 2nd TE to compliment Kmet and then a defense has an awful lot to think about. Then fix the early pressure issues up the middle. no doubt adding another quality receiver will increase the passing output. First off it makes the guy that caught 1300 face fewer double teams. Im not sure you can just double 1,300 yards though. For example if Fields completion percentage is above 50%, then youd be attributing over 100% completions then. But that math nitpick aside, youre absolutely right that this offensive roster is begging for another impact receiver, and that would make everything better across the board. We need OL help too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 46 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said: Im not sure you can just double 1,300 yards though. For example if Fields completion percentage is above 50%, then youd be attributing over 100% completions then. You might want to rethink your math. It doesn't factor in increased pass attempts and undetermined successes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 1 Author Report Share Posted January 1 One thing Poles has to consider is Fields trade value. So if a team like ATL who thinks they are a QB away, what if they are willing to do a Stafford-like trade and give up say a 1st and a future 3rd for Fields. Would that be enough to sway Poles in that direction? That would give the Bears the #1, #9, and #10 picks in 2024, and then an extra 2nd (CAR) and 3rd in 2025 for example. Just say they go QB at 1, they can still get a WR and another blue chipper (Newton or Bowers) at 10 OR trade back one of those for extra picks. What is going to make the Bears the best team possible in 2024 and beyond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 18 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said: You might want to rethink your math. It doesn't factor in increased pass attempts and undetermined successes. I didnt think anyone meant that if we got another good receiver we'd have twice as many offensive plays. Anyway it doesnt matter, the math of it isnt whats important - whats important is that I agree with AZ54 that there is a huge need for another dominant WR in our offensive roster, and it would multiply the effectiveness of everyone else too. High functioning famous offenses always have had (at least) two great WRs. And of course we all agree on this. I think Poles will get us one in the offseason. I think we all expect that. QB(?), WR2, Edge2, OC, FS, TE2, 3T, LT, RG - in no particular order, and that's not too long of a grocery list that Poles cant fill a lot of it this offseason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 8 hours ago, adam said: Something to consider, a lot of QB numbers are way down this year. The TD lead with 16 games played is Prescott with 32. That is super low considering QBs in the past had over 50. If you look at the beginning of the season, all low marks , his numbers gets pulled down but what does his numbers look like since his injury? A better tale of where he is now as he has shown growth. When someone is bad and gets better, overall marks doesn't show that. Example, our defense was bad, take a look at the numbers from the day Sweat got here. Clearly everyone thinks our Def is a lot better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 23 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said: I didnt think anyone meant that if we got another good receiver we'd have twice as many offensive plays. Anyway it doesnt matter, the math of it isnt whats important - whats important is that I agree with AZ54 that there is a huge need for another dominant WR in our offensive roster, and it would multiply the effectiveness of everyone else too. High functioning famous offenses always have had (at least) two great WRs. And of course we all agree on this. I think Poles will get us one in the offseason. I think we all expect that. QB(?), WR2, Edge2, OC, FS, TE2, 3T, LT, RG - in no particular order, and that's not too long of a grocery list that Poles cant fill a lot of it this offseason. Agreed the math is not the important issue, but your reply is still off point. Commenting the obvious, multiple thousand yard receivers is not a new thing. So if we get a stud receiver and our QB throws for 4K yards, another 1300 yard reciever is possible regardless of attempts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 57 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said: Agreed the math is not the important issue, but your reply is still off point. Commenting the obvious, multiple thousand yard receivers is not a new thing. So if we get a stud receiver and our QB throws for 4K yards, another 1300 yard reciever is possible regardless of attempts. surely possible, but not automatic by any means. multiple 1,300 yard receivers has happened 8 times in NFL History. Id love to be 9th. We'd be in this company: 84 Dolphins (Clayton & Duper) 95 Lions (Moore & Perriman) 00 Rams (Holt & Bruce) 00 Broncos (Smith & McCaffery) 02 Steelers (Ward & Burress) 05 Cardinals (Fitzgerald & Wayne) 06 Colts (Harrison & Wayne) 11 Patriots (Welker & Gronkowski) BUT Multiple 1,000 yard receivers is very possible. And if we got MHJr or Odunze on Nebors, it would be absolutely within reasonable reach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said: surely possible, but not automatic by any means. multiple 1,300 yard receivers has happened 8 times in NFL History. Id love to be 9th. We'd be in this company: 84 Dolphins (Clayton & Duper) 95 Lions (Moore & Perriman) 00 Rams (Holt & Bruce) 00 Broncos (Smith & McCaffery) 02 Steelers (Ward & Burress) 05 Cardinals (Fitzgerald & Wayne) 06 Colts (Harrison & Wayne) 11 Patriots (Welker & Gronkowski) BUT Multiple 1,000 yard receivers is very possible. And if we got MHJr or Odunze on Nebors, it would be absolutely within reasonable reach. Coulda swore we had this in Marshall and Jeffery. Turns out they both had over 1,000 at the same time (2013) and nearly were both over 1,300 that year. Jeffery got 1,421 and Marshall 1,295. As Maxwell Smart used to say, “missed it by that much”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: Coulda swore we had this in Marshall and Jeffery. Turns out they both had over 1,000 at the same time (2013) and nearly were both over 1,300 that year. Jeffery got 1,421 and Marshall 1,295. As Maxwell Smart used to say, “missed it by that much”. yeah, for all practical purposes that counts. They were great. Id love to see us like that again. And you can bet Poles is gonna do something big to address that other WR position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 2 Author Report Share Posted January 2 Fields career in 4 quarters (9 games per quarter): 1Q - 4 games with 270 total yards, 8 TDs (0.89), 14 Turnovers, 2 games with 3+ turnovers -------------------------------- (Nagy to Getsy) ------------------------------ 2Q - 2 games with 270 total yards, 14 TDs (1.56), 7 Turnovers (2 other games over 250 yds) 3Q - 3 games with 270 total yards, 15 TDs (1.67), 11 Turnovers 4Q - 6 games with 270 total yards, 16 TDs (1.78), 8 Turnovers (1 other game over 250 yds) So 270 yards is sort of the threshold for high-end/elite QBs, that would total 4,590 yds for a 17 game season. 1.8 TDs per games is 30 TDs for a 17 game season. So right now Fields' last 9 games or last quarter of his career, he is averaging 268 yds per game which also includes the partial game where he got injured. His TD rate per game is 1.78, which is rounded up to 1.8. So he basically hits the bottom of that threshold on average for his last 9 games for both yardage and TDs. The last part of the equation is turnovers. Most elite QBs have less than 1 per game. Fields interestingly enough, hit that in his 2nd quarter (first with Getsy) and the 4th quarter as well. So the question becomes, can someone like Williams or Maye exceed 268 yards per game and 1.78 TDs with a 0.89 turnover rate? For the season that would be 4,556 total yards, 30 TDs, and 15 turnovers. Stroud seems like the new gold standard for rookies, right now he averages 285 yds, 1.7 TDs , 0.64 turnovers Tua, who leads the league in passing yards, averages 282 total yards per game. Stroud surpasses him with some extra rushing yards. Cousins was leading the league in total yards per game average at 295. Allen is at 275, Mahomes at 285, Prescott at 280, and Hurts at 275, and Jackson at 281. So the last question is, is using the #1 pick on a QB to gain 17 total yards (passing+rushing) per game, 1 less TD per year, and 4 fewer turnovers per year worth it? That is basically what you gain from going from Fields to Stroud at best. The risk is Maye/Williams/Daniels are Trubisky 4.0. This info leads me to believe they will stick with Fields and add a playmaker to upgrade at WR2 (which would gain 50yds per game and 6-8 TDs per year compared to Mooney/Scott. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 2 Author Report Share Posted January 2 Also, does Fields in the game help the RBs rushing totals? Can that indirect effect allow them to gain those 17 yards lost? I think it does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixote Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 27 minutes ago, adam said: Fields career in 4 quarters (9 games per quarter): 1Q - 4 games with 270 total yards, 8 TDs (0.89), 14 Turnovers, 2 games with 3+ turnovers -------------------------------- (Nagy to Getsy) ------------------------------ 2Q - 2 games with 270 total yards, 14 TDs (1.56), 7 Turnovers (2 other games over 250 yds) 3Q - 3 games with 270 total yards, 15 TDs (1.67), 11 Turnovers 4Q - 6 games with 270 total yards, 16 TDs (1.78), 8 Turnovers (1 other game over 250 yds) So 270 yards is sort of the threshold for high-end/elite QBs, that would total 4,590 yds for a 17 game season. 1.8 TDs per games is 30 TDs for a 17 game season. So right now Fields' last 9 games or last quarter of his career, he is averaging 268 yds per game which also includes the partial game where he got injured. His TD rate per game is 1.78, which is rounded up to 1.8. So he basically hits the bottom of that threshold on average for his last 9 games for both yardage and TDs. The last part of the equation is turnovers. Most elite QBs have less than 1 per game. Fields interestingly enough, hit that in his 2nd quarter (first with Getsy) and the 4th quarter as well. So the question becomes, can someone like Williams or Maye exceed 268 yards per game and 1.78 TDs with a 0.89 turnover rate? For the season that would be 4,556 total yards, 30 TDs, and 15 turnovers. Stroud seems like the new gold standard for rookies, right now he averages 285 yds, 1.7 TDs , 0.64 turnovers Tua, who leads the league in passing yards, averages 282 total yards per game. Stroud surpasses him with some extra rushing yards. Cousins was leading the league in total yards per game average at 295. Allen is at 275, Mahomes at 285, Prescott at 280, and Hurts at 275, and Jackson at 281. So the last question is, is using the #1 pick on a QB to gain 17 total yards (passing+rushing) per game, 1 less TD per year, and 4 fewer turnovers per year worth it? That is basically what you gain from going from Fields to Stroud at best. The risk is Maye/Williams/Daniels are Trubisky 4.0. This info leads me to believe they will stick with Fields and add a playmaker to upgrade at WR2 (which would gain 50yds per game and 6-8 TDs per year compared to Mooney/Scott. You do an amazing job providing us with great statistical analysis. I am sure it is a very time consuming project, one which I greatly appreciate. Now we need to make sure Poles gets a copy so he doesn't make a mistake and give up on Fields. ? After seeing these stats, I am more convinced than I was before that trading the #1 pick to build the roster around Fields would be the best route to go. Thanks again for these brilliant contributions to our forum! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 54 minutes ago, adam said: Also, does Fields in the game help the RBs rushing totals? Can that indirect effect allow them to gain those 17 yards lost? I think it does. You have used stats to argue both sides of the Fields issue and did both well. That this shows you stats can be misleading depending on the point you're trying to make. I try to look at it from Poles view. Justin has some talent but is not where he should be at this stage. That has some risk but you can win with him.(5-2) in the last 7 games soon to be 6-2. If you improve the roster with multi blue chip players, it only gets better. 80% of the fanbase loves Fields and wants him to stay. The majority of football people are on bring Justin back mode that I have listened to. You need to win in the next two yrs according to your original plans. He is relitively cheap for the next 2 yrs. Option B, find a Burrows type QB in the draft. Trade Fields for a 3rd round pick, maybe 2 and go forward with a rookie starting over. The risk that he turns out like Bryce Young for the first 2 yrs is more the norm than Burrows or a Mahomes. Stroud has look good for a rookie but which one is a Stroud. If you take a rookie and regress, huge hit against your job security. you not only have to sell to the fans but also to the team. Then to compound that, that draftee will be compared to Fields in every game, he could be better, then your job will be in jepordy by the end of the yr. This forum will trash you everyday. Option C, keep Fields and draft a prospect not in the first round, and try to develop him. Lets say Fields stays the same and doesnt get better, you will still have a winning record because you upgraded the roster .You can tell the fanbase you are developing a QB to take his place for 2 yrs while you are winning. Option C is clearly the safest bet for Poles to keep his job going forward. Hell he will get another high pick in nexts draft from a bad team and we could be talking top 5 pick again next yr with 2 first round picks and 2 2nd round picks in 2025, he could draft another QB if he needs to. If he adds MHJ or Bowers, maybe Nabers , Odunize plus another pass rusher. Any QB will look better with a top 5 defense and an improving offense. win win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 2 Author Report Share Posted January 2 What's wild to me is Mahomes is seen as potentially the GOAT, or at least top 5 all-time. This season he has a QB Rating of 92.6, averages 264 passing yds a game (285 yds overall), 7.0 Y/A, and has 27 TDs (1.7) to 17 Turnovers (1.1). This is his 7th season in the same offense with a HoF TE and a great O-Line. I think the question becomes, can Fields get to those numbers? Fields has 268 yd/g, 1.8 TD, and 0.9 meaning he is 17 yards away from having a near identical season to Mahomes. Fields QB rating is 85.8 with 1 INT that hit the ground. How does Fields production compare to the expected MVP? Jackson averages 230 passing yards a game and 51 rushing for 281 yards a game. He has 29 TDs and 13 turnovers. His TD rate is 1.8/g (same as Fields), his turnover rate is 0.8/g (Fields is 0.9). So with 268 yds/g, Fields is 13 yards away from the projected MVP yet somehow there is a conversation about replacing him with a guy that would throw for 50 more yards (7 more completions of 7yds), but rush for 30 less (6 less rushes of 5 yds), and that is the BEST CASE scenario. Here is my question, would you rather have Trevor Lawrence production (271 yds/g, 1.5 TD/g, 1.2 TO/g) with an extra 2nd round pick or Justin Fields (268 yds/g, 1.8 TD/g, 0.9 TO/g) with an extra 1st round pick? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Long read, but it says everything... https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39219170/chicago-bears-quarterback-justin-fields-caleb-williams-drake-maye-no-1-pick-2024-nfl-draft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 yeah, if you believe in Fields, and you also believe in one or more of the rookie QBs, then it comes down to "which is better, a rookie on his rookie deal, or Fields and the first pick in the draft" I think most of us, myself included, have to say that if you believe in Fields, having Fields AND everything the first overall pick brings is better than the cap savings on having a rookie, and their developmental schedule. The question has always been do you believe in Fields, do you believe in any of the rookies. Until this last game, I did not believe in Fields. Now I see the possibility that he has it in him. I wish I had four more games to see it, but no one said this would be easy. But yes, he showed a sustained ability I hadn't seen from him before. Of course if you don't believe in Fields, the choice is easy. The choice is also easy if you don't believe in any of the rookies. It all comes down to making a bet on Justin's future. Gun to my head if I had to decide right now, Id keep Fields, and blow the first overall pick up into as much as I could get. MHJr or Odunze or Nabers wouldnt suck. Neither would a dominant Edge. and much more. But I wouldnt sign the 5th year option. I wouldnt want to make that bet to the point that I was hamstrung in 2025, espeically if we have two first rounders again. And If Im wrong, and Fields balls out, then Im signing him to a long term deal, and Ill miss out on the $15 Mil savings in 2025. Thats better than losing the bet and having $25Mil on your books for 2025 for a guy who isnt starting. And all of this, predicated on one game. Sheesh I hate that. I used to be able to say "he has never had a game where he did this consistently" and now he has. One game. At least I know he has it in him now i guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 2 Author Report Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said: And all of this, predicated on one game. Sheesh I hate that. I used to be able to say "he has never had a game where he did this consistently" and now he has. One game. At least I know he has it in him now i guess. That's the thing, if you use the entire package or career stats, that says you draft a QB #1 as Fields has underperformed as you need more out of the QB position to make deep playoff runs. If you use the last 9 games only, it says he is right at the cusp of the top 10 QBs in terms of overall production and you keep him and build an even better team around him where you don't need him to be top 5 to win a Super Bowl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, adam said: That's the thing, if you use the entire package or career stats, that says you draft a QB #1 as Fields has underperformed as you need more out of the QB position to make deep playoff runs. If you use the last 9 games, it says he is right at the cusp of the top 10 QBs in terms of overall production and you keep him and build an even better team around him where you don't need him to be top 5 to win a Super Bowl. and a lot of Fields' good stats werent attained while throwing in rhythm from the pocket, so i dont know how you can use any improvement in those stats to predict that he will learn how to do that. The only thing I have that says he even CAN is this past game. In my eyes, he long ago proved that hes an incredible running improvising QB. And he only just this week showed me any drops in tempo, and sustained quick reads from the pocket on time. Stats are just not gonna help me with this decision. Thankfully whatever I decide makes no friggin difference whatsoever LOL But for Poles and those guys, it almost has to be a gut decision on this one, because there are no metrics for whether what he did this past week is the new Justin, and what he will look like in camp next year in terms of tempo. Did he finally get the feel for it? Or was he under pressure for his job that will dissipate over the summer? Steadiness and lack of panic is an essential ingredient to being a great QB. I almost feel like Fields has too much of it. He feels detached sometimes, unhurried, unaffected and distant. I think thats why his drops have been slow. No moment is too big for him, but on the flip side he lacks urgency. Then again, i can say this. I've worked with a ton of celebrities in my career. Out of all of them the most boring person I ever met was Joe Montana. He was like mashed potatoes. I could imagine him in the huddle in that super bowl against Cincinnatti CALMLY BORINGLY calling that sprint right option play where the ball ends up in Clark's hands. Yeah. Yawn, You just go there and Ill throw it to ya. It's like 10 yards. no big deal. its just a throw and catch. So there is definitely something to be said for calm and unphased. Then again, the ball came out fast with Montana - he was a surgeon on the field making reads and moving safeties. Justin can keep mumbling and being low energy confident and unflappable as long as his drops are crisp like they were this past week, and he gets the ball out on schedule. Who will he be in July? That's the question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 3 Author Report Share Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said: Who will he be in July? That's the question. All I know is this is going to be a wild offseason. They didn't make the Panthers trade until March 10th last year. So we are going to have some crazy speculation going until at least March 10th again, or possibly up until April 25th. This year the combine is February 26th – March 4th, March 5th is the Franchise Tag deadline, March 11th starts free agency, the draft is Apr 25 - 27, and May 2nd is the 5th Year option deadline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 it's going to be f*cking fun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said: Gun to my head if I had to decide right now, Id keep Fields, and blow the first overall pick up into as much as I could get. MHJr or Odunze or Nabers wouldnt suck. Neither would a dominant Edge. and much more. Welcome to the collective. ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 12 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: Welcome to the collective. ?? LOL I didnt know you were so hot, Grizz! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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