Fields-O-Meter

[adam]

7 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Justin can't throw them.  He's got a tell.  He cocks his elbow and defensive tackles' hands go up.  Or Justin throws it into a helmet.  That's why Getsy stopped calling them.  It was in the playbook last year...

Good points, but that has to be correctable right?

[Mongo3451]

3 minutes ago, adam said:

Good points, but that has to be correctable right?

We're three years in.  Ain't gonna happen.

[Mongo3451]

18 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

The team is on the cusp of meeting your record predictions (and “no playoffs”) and Justin is “on the out”?  

Funny isn't it?  The defense progressed to almost get us there.  While Justin didn't make the leap.  I can dig it up, but part of my thoughts were that Justin had to vastly improve for us to make the playoffs.  Had he vastly improved, we would be a greatly feared team right now, D included.

[adam]

One other thing to consider. I was having a discussion on Twitter and realized there is a direct correlation to the number of 1st round draft picks on the roster and the overall team record. It doesn't guarantee success, but all the top teams had no less than 4 first round picks on their roster (drafted by them). The Bears have 2. 

BAL - 9
PHI - 7
BUF - 7
DAL - 7
DET - 7
JAX - 7
CLE - 5
SF - 4
KC - 4
MIA - 4

So the Bears needs to trade down and gain draft capital. Preferably pick up an additional 2025 1st, to keep stacking them.
 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

The Bears have 2. 

They had as many as 3-4 last year with Leatherwood and Harry on the team. ??‍♂️

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Funny isn't it?  The defense progressed to almost get us there.  While Justin didn't make the leap.  I can dig it up, but part of my thoughts were that Justin had to vastly improve for us to make the playoffs.  Had he vastly improved, we would be a greatly feared team right now, D included.

Meh.  Since he returned from injury the Bears went 4-2 in their last six games.  Four of the games the offense scored over 20 points and Justin passed for over 200 yards in four of this six as well.  
 

The defense coming on stronger as the season wore on would’ve been better in games like when he threw for over 300 yards and 4 TDs against Denver earlier in the season. 

I think it safe to say teams are legitimately concerned about what Chicago can become next season especially if you consider how many teams are allegedly interested in trading high picks for Justin. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Good take on Fields by Kyle Brandt.  
 

https://x.com/kylebrandt/status/1743285789998379203?s=46&t=KrpJmhSTc4DI1sACtjisOQ

[Mongo3451]

22 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Meh.  Since he returned from injury the Bears went 4-2 in their last six games.  Four of the games the offense scored over 20 points and Justin passed for over 200 yards in four of this six as well.  
 

The defense coming on stronger as the season wore on would’ve been better in games like when he threw for over 300 yards and 4 TDs against Denver earlier in the season. 

I think it safe to say teams are legitimately concerned about what Chicago can become next season especially if you consider how many teams are allegedly interested in trading high picks for Justin. 

Yeah, that was the game that made Justin 0-4, when he couldn't keep the offense on the field in the 4th quarter to give our, undermanned, defense a breather.  I think it went punt, turnover on downs and interception.

Man, and you speak of 200 yards like it's a measuring stick.  In the meantime, we'll be facing the new GB quarterback, going for 4k.  At the rate Justin is progressing, he may do that by the age of 36. (Sarcasm)  

 

[adam]

41 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

They had as many as 3-4 last year with Leatherwood and Harry on the team. ??‍♂️

Drafted not acquired (like Sweat). If you add acquired, some teams are over 10, and the Bears still only have like 4.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

59 minutes ago, adam said:

Drafted not acquired (like Sweat). If you add acquired, some teams are over 10, and the Bears still only have like 4.

Ah, I missed the “drafted” part.  Agree for sure that Poles’ plan should be then to acquire as many potential 1st round picks (this year and next) rather than use the one overall this year. 

[adam]

14 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Ah, I missed the “drafted” part.  Agree for sure that Poles’ plan should be then to acquire as many potential 1st round picks (this year and next) rather than use the one overall this year. 

Either way the Bears are behind, by 2 to 4 times. If you figure 4-5 being the average, the Bears have half of that right now. If they draft a QB, they will only have 3 going into 2024. If they keep Fields, they will have 4.

So a different way to look at this:

1. Bears keep Fields, trade pick for an additional 1st rounder in 2025 (at a min), their 1st rounder drafted roster count goes to 4, and in 2025 count goes to 6.

2. Bears draft Williams/Maye, trade Fields for a 2nd. Their 1st rounder drafted roster count goes to 3, and their 2025 count goes to 4. 

 

So 4 and 6 with a potential for 8 in 2026 (if you get 2x firsts)

or

2 and 3 with a projected 4 in 2026.

 

It would seem trading the pick accelerates the roster building x2 every year for at least the next 3 years.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

23 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Man, and you speak of 200 yards like it's a measuring stick.  In the meantime, we'll be facing the new GB quarterback, going for 4k.  At the rate Justin is progressing, he may do that by the age of 36. (Sarcasm

200 yards a game isn’t bad if you also add in rushing to the mix.  
 

In Loves last 17 games (16 this season) he’s managed 3,852 passing yards (avg ~230/game) and 240 yards rushing (4,082 total yards) with 34 TDs.  

Justin’s last 17 games had 3,167 passing yards and 1,024 rushing yards (4,191 total yards) with 27 total TDs.  
 

They aren’t all that far apart.  
 

Edit:  should add, the NFL has one year of tape on Love and three years on Fields.  And he’s progressed despite that.  What will happen in year 2 and 3 for Love remains to be seen. 

[BearFan PHX]

2 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Edit:  should add, the NFL has one year of tape on Love and three years on Fields.  And he’s progressed despite that.  What will happen in year 2 and 3 for Love remains to be seen. 

good point.

[adam]

Love has been incredibly lucky. He had 2x guaranteed INTs turn into TDs; literally tipped up by a defender to a different WR. Just like in hockey, their is puck luck. Eventually that dries up. I feel like he is going to be one of those top 10-20 QBs, not a future HoFer or perennial to top 5 QB.  Hell, he has 1x 300 yard game all year, and zero 4 TD passing games. So he has yet to have a truly elite game. 

[Stinger226]

Love could end up being good but he's never going to be a tier 1 QB .  None of us want to see that happen so we don't want to see any positives he shows. I think anything that Love shows is a product of having a good coach than actual talent.  Just like any QB, you keep pressure on him, he doesn't play well. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Just like any QB, you keep pressure on him, he doesn't play well. 

That will be key tomorrow.  He can move but nowhere near where Justin can in a bind.  The game of ‘psy-ops’ will be important in that the more rushed he (Love) sees will play into his internal clock. Any hits and sacks they can add in will be the cherry on top. 
 

Looks like the running game will primarily be on Aaron Jones and recently signed Emmanuel Lewis (who recently came off IR) due to AJ Dillon not being available. 
 

 

[BearFan PHX]

8 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

That will be key tomorrow.  He can move but nowhere near where Justin can in a bind.  The game of ‘pay-ops’ will be important in that the more rushed he (Love) sees will play into his internal clock. Any hits and sacks they can add in will be the cherry on top.

I think both teams should blitz more than usual tomorrow, for different reasons.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I’ll tell you what…I watch Stroud play and think, Bears don’t have a qb like that. How can anyone watch Fields and see someone like Stroud. And it isn’t like the Texans were some loaded team. 
 

Some like excuses, but elite qbs make everyone around them better. I don’t think Justin makes anyone better - but I do admit he has elite physical attributes. 
 

In my mind, to win and ask sustainably win, you need a guy like that. 

[BearFan PHX]

9 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I’ll tell you what…I watch Stroud play and think, Bears don’t have a qb like that. How can anyone watch Fields and see someone like Stroud. And it isn’t like the Texans were some loaded team. 
 

Some like excuses, but elite qbs make everyone around them better. I don’t think Justin makes anyone better - but I do admit he has elite physical attributes. 
 

In my mind, to win and ask sustainably win, you need a guy like that. 

I totally agree, with one caveat. Last week Fields showed some actual work from the pocket. *IF* that improves, he could be really good. But right now, and especially before last week, you're 100% correct.

I like Penix right now if he's medically cleared. That guy is amazing.

[Stinger226]

50 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I’ll tell you what…I watch Stroud play and think, Bears don’t have a qb like that. How can anyone watch Fields and see someone like Stroud. And it isn’t like the Texans were some loaded team. 
 

Some like excuses, but elite qbs make everyone around them better. I don’t think Justin makes anyone better - but I do admit he has elite physical attributes. 
 

In my mind, to win and ask sustainably win, you need a guy like that. 

It's great that Stroud played well, but clearly the majority of experts thought Young would be the prize of the draft. This years can't miss QB is Williams but they're seems to be some questions on intangibles. Experts never get fired for judging the QBs wrong, they just move on to next years group but GMs that listen to them do. 

If Poles finds the next great QB, Im all in on that guy, I trust him to make the best choice for our future. If he thinks draft choices and Fields are  the best choice, I'm all in on that too. I don't think we have any bad choices, it's just one will be better than the other.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

In my mind, to win and ask sustainably win, you need a guy like that. 

Let’s wait until after next year when teams have some intel on him and see how things shake out.  ??‍♂️

[adam]

8 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I’ll tell you what…I watch Stroud play and think, Bears don’t have a qb like that. How can anyone watch Fields and see someone like Stroud. And it isn’t like the Texans were some loaded team. 
 

Some like excuses, but elite qbs make everyone around them better. I don’t think Justin makes anyone better - but I do admit he has elite physical attributes. 
 

In my mind, to win and ask sustainably win, you need a guy like that. 

Stroud is playing amazing, but a few things. Outside of that one 75-yard busted coverage TD, he had 189 yards passing. In total 195 of his 264 yards were to Collins. So 17 passes for 69 yards (yay baby) to receivers other than Collins. That's 4.0 Y/A.  Just like the WAS game with Fields and Moore. Collins needs to get some credit for that game. Hey IND, you may want to bracket Collins instead of leaving a rookie DB on him with no over the top safety help.

What I loved about Stroud's game was the last scoring drive. Tie game, 4th quarter, you go 7-7, and recover from a sack and then a holding penalty while your lead back gets 4 rushes for 7 yards and the TD lol. They took 7 mins off the clock.

In between TDs drives, it reminded me of the Bears though, punt, punt, punt. 

Indy missed a FG, then decided to pass the ball (to Tyler Goodson?) on 4th and 1 with Taylor as your RB. They were on the HOU 15 with 2 more timeouts down 6. Indy shit this game down their leg. 

Ryans deserves a ton of credit. This defense is sneaky good. In their last 5 wins, they have allowed 19, 3, 16, 17, and 16. In their last 3 losses they allowed 36, 30, and 24. 

I was surprised to see HOU with 10 wins, who did they beat? IND, TENx2, DEN, ARZ, CIN, TB, NO, PIT, and JAX.  Of those teams, PIT is the only one that has 10 wins. I think next year is going to be exponentially tougher. Going from a last place schedule to a first place schedule is going to be interesting:

Next season they get MIA, BUF, BAL, KC, DAL or PHI + DET, CHI, GB, and MIN. Good luck Texans!

[adam]

6 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Let’s wait until after next year when teams have some intel on him and see how things shake out.  ??‍♂️

I didn't even include that in my post. A lot of things to like. He is definitely a keeper and probably a perennial top 10 QB, great to see, but next year will really be a test for HOU. They don't have their own 1st rounder, they have CLE, so more than likely will get a late 20s pick, not 2x top 5 picks. 

Stroud ends the season with the #16 QBR and is graded as the #14 QB according to PFF.

[Bears4Ever_34]

14 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I’ll tell you what…I watch Stroud play and think, Bears don’t have a qb like that. How can anyone watch Fields and see someone like Stroud. And it isn’t like the Texans were some loaded team. 
 

Some like excuses, but elite qbs make everyone around them better. I don’t think Justin makes anyone better - but I do admit he has elite physical attributes. 
 

In my mind, to win and ask sustainably win, you need a guy like that. 

100%. Bears have a much better roster than the Texans. They just don't have a quarterback nearly as good. Fields relies too heavily on his playmaking ability to make up for his pocket deficiencies. He's been a below average passer for 3 years and has lead the NFL in 4th quarter turnovers since coming in to the league. If he was special, you would almost certainly know it by now.

We are repeating the same mistake we made with Cutler. If you have to keep telling yourself you need better playmakers and coaches around the quarterback to make him better, the quarterback is the problem. 

[BearFan PHX]

52 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

100%. Bears have a much better roster than the Texans. They just don't have a quarterback nearly as good. Fields relies too heavily on his playmaking ability to make up for his pocket deficiencies. He's been a below average passer for 3 years and has lead the NFL in 4th quarter turnovers since coming in to the league. If he was special, you would almost certainly know it by now.

We are repeating the same mistake we made with Cutler. If you have to keep telling yourself you need better playmakers and coaches around the quarterback to make him better, the quarterback is the problem. 

this is where Im ending up too. I did see some flashes so it is possible Fields will blossom next year, but right now, his footwork is still so bad its not a good bet to make.