Fields-O-Meter

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

Why I think Fields has not improved in one play:   We got a TD here at 1:35s in the video to close the game.  The TD was nice but this pass was late and as you will see documented in other QB analysis videos it's not the only example.   Fields must continue to improve his decision making and release timing on these 5yd routes.   

20s into this video is a quick screen pass to DJ which might be the quickest I've seen Fields flip his feet and throw.  Maybe there is change starting to happen but he cannot continue being late on these short routes.  

I'm left thinking we have a good QB for intermediate and deep routes.  Give him pass protection where those plays can develop and voila we get TDs.  Give him pressure where he has to work the short routes quickly and we get drives that stall.  It's not the end of his development as all QBs even the great ones have had aspects of their game they needed to improve upon for years after they entered the league (see Drew Brees).  Plus Fields can offset the lack of an effective short passing game with his running ability.   

He may never be a QB in the Manning/Brady style who can quickly slice and dice a defense. He could be more in the Drew Brees/Roethlisberger style where they need protection good enough to work the deeper routes.  Remember Sean Payton saying how critical interior pass protection was for Brees, and how good the Saints were at that for many years.  Roethlisberger often bought his own time when he was young, as can Fields but still thrived best with more time to throw.  

(link won't embed so you'll have to follow to the site)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVGs_V8aVoQ

 

As long as he can get the Bears a Superbowl W, I will be alright with a QB that isn't Manning or Brady.  Those guys a few and far to find.  Keep drafting QBs and maybe we find a Brady.

[BearFan PHX]

5 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Why I think Fields has not improved in one play:   We got a TD here at 1:35s in the video to close the game.  The TD was nice but this pass was late and as you will see documented in other QB analysis videos it's not the only example.   Fields must continue to improve his decision making and release timing on these 5yd routes.   

20s into this video is a quick screen pass to DJ which might be the quickest I've seen Fields flip his feet and throw.  Maybe there is change starting to happen but he cannot continue being late on these short routes.  

I'm left thinking we have a good QB for intermediate and deep routes.  Give him pass protection where those plays can develop and voila we get TDs.  Give him pressure where he has to work the short routes quickly and we get drives that stall.  It's not the end of his development as all QBs even the great ones have had aspects of their game they needed to improve upon for years after they entered the league (see Drew Brees).  Plus Fields can offset the lack of an effective short passing game with his running ability.   

He may never be a QB in the Manning/Brady style who can quickly slice and dice a defense. He could be more in the Drew Brees/Roethlisberger style where they need protection good enough to work the deeper routes.  Remember Sean Payton saying how critical interior pass protection was for Brees, and how good the Saints were at that for many years.  Roethlisberger often bought his own time when he was young, as can Fields but still thrived best with more time to throw.  

(link won't embed so you'll have to follow to the site)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVGs_V8aVoQ

 

You're right - he is still late and not throwing with anticipation. Sometimes people are so wide open that it doesnt matter, but that's not a sustainable formula for success.

I have been glad to see the Bears put up some points and win a game, but I definitely need to see Fields' internal clock get some sense of urgency. It shouldnt have to take the threat of being fired to make you play with a fire under your butt.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

A couple “records” to consider.

Second QB in Bears history to throw 250 or more yards in first quarter.

First QB in Bears history to throw 16 consecutive passes

and a few other notes..

 

[BearFan PHX]

Yeah but even in his record breaking performance against Washington, completing 16 in a row, he STILL ended up with a 51.7 completion percentage. the rest of that just says he is one of the best scrambling QBs ever. True, he is.

But he needs to become a better passer. And he needs to make faster decisions, and he needs to be consistent.

If a QB only completes half his passes, is it better if he completes them all in a row in the first half?

I'm glad to see a spark around Justin. I truly hope he emerges, but he is nowhere near there yet. he's still 1-4. and a lot of those touchdowns are because DJ Moore is a major stud.

[adam]

10 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Yeah but even in his record breaking performance against Washington, completing 16 in a row, he STILL ended up with a 51.7 completion percentage. the rest of that just says he is one of the best scrambling QBs ever. True, he is.

But he needs to become a better passer. And he needs to make faster decisions, and he needs to be consistent.

If a QB only completes half his passes, is it better if he completes them all in a row in the first half?

I'm glad to see a spark around Justin. I truly hope he emerges, but he is nowhere near there yet. he's still 1-4. and a lot of those touchdowns are because DJ Moore is a major stud.

You may be mixing up games, he had 16 in a row against Denver. He only had 15 completions against Washington.

He still has some work to do, but several of his incompletions were throw aways, something I know I have been asking him to do instead of taking a sack. So I am not too worried about completion % because that is significantly impacted by the difficulty of the target. Mac Jones had a great comp% but most throws were under 5 yards. 

Overall I think he has taken the Year 3 step like the Allen and Hurts did, Fields just took a few extra games. Now the trick is to have this be a sustained step. He won't throw 4 TDs every game, but 2 per game should be his new norm.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

13 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

and a lot of those touchdowns are because DJ Moore is a major stud.

That was the point of getting Moore.  So he could be the Diggs to Allen or AJ Brown to Hurts.  ?

[Alaskan Grizzly]

13 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

. And he needs to make faster decisions, and he needs to be consistent.

And to all this I would agree.  And Getsy needs to keep making good calls and the line needs to keep blocking good too.  

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, adam said:

You may be mixing up games, he had 16 in a row against Denver. He only had 15 completions against Washington.

He still has some work to do, but several of his incompletions were throw aways, something I know I have been asking him to do instead of taking a sack. So I am not too worried about completion % because that is significantly impacted by the difficulty of the target. Mac Jones had a great comp% but most throws were under 5 yards. 

Overall I think he has taken the Year 3 step like the Allen and Hurts did, Fields just took a few extra games. Now the trick is to have this be a sustained step. He won't throw 4 TDs every game, but 2 per game should be his new norm.

He is far from perfect, Im watching Josh Allen right now and cant believe Bills havent cut him.(joking) No QB is perfect and Justin has  a long way to go but for every bad form he shows he has  some perfect passes also. He just needs more consistency. We are seeing a QB developed in front of our eyes, he's not there yet.

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, adam said:

You may be mixing up games, he had 16 in a row against Denver. He only had 15 completions against Washington.

He still has some work to do, but several of his incompletions were throw aways, something I know I have been asking him to do instead of taking a sack. So I am not too worried about completion % because that is significantly impacted by the difficulty of the target. Mac Jones had a great comp% but most throws were under 5 yards. 

Overall I think he has taken the Year 3 step like the Allen and Hurts did, Fields just took a few extra games. Now the trick is to have this be a sustained step. He won't throw 4 TDs every game, but 2 per game should be his new norm.

Youre right, I was conflating the two games statistically. My bad!

Im just saying, we shouldnt be crowning Fields yet. He still has a long way to go. And it's late. We need to make a decision on him after this year, and Im not comfortable keeping him and signing him to a long term deal for big money on the basis of a few games and the idea that he's still growing.

In fact, Im not even comfortable not picking a high first round draft pick QB this year based on incremental growth either. He needs to prove it, and it's getting late.

[adam]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Youre right, I was conflating the two games statistically. My bad!

Im just saying, we shouldnt be crowning Fields yet. He still has a long way to go. And it's late. We need to make a decision on him after this year, and Im not comfortable keeping him and signing him to a long term deal for big money on the basis of a few games and the idea that he's still growing.

In fact, Im not even comfortable not picking a high first round draft pick QB this year based on incremental growth either. He needs to prove it, and it's getting late.

I agree that he has to show this for the rest of the season, and not have this just be bad defenses being bad.

It will hard for the Bears not to draft a QB, especially if they are in the top 3. If they have #1, I don't think anything less than him playing at an MVP level will stop them from drafting a QB.

[BearFan PHX]

37 minutes ago, adam said:

I agree that he has to show this for the rest of the season, and not have this just be bad defenses being bad.

It will hard for the Bears not to draft a QB, especially if they are in the top 3. If they have #1, I don't think anything less than him playing at an MVP level will stop them from drafting a QB.

and if they draft a first round QB, they cant keep Fields around. So all of this could end up being counter productive. Unless of course it just raises Fields trade value i suppose.

it'll be hard to trade him if he's doing well, but if he becomes a decent pro QB, do we miss Williams? OR does Williams refuse to come here because Eberflus kept his job?

Mixed and limited success here makes it all so foggy it could hurt us.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

I agree that he has to show this for the rest of the season, and not have this just be bad defenses being bad.

It will hard for the Bears not to draft a QB, especially if they are in the top 3. If they have #1, I don't think anything less than him playing at an MVP level will stop them from drafting a QB.

So if he does 3600 yards, 28 TDs,11 ints and 750 rushing with 4 more TDs, do they keep him? I think if he progresses, the thought of drafting  Harrison with DJ has to be an attractive thought.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

and if they draft a first round QB, they cant keep Fields around. So all of this could end up being counter productive. Unless of course it just raises Fields trade value i suppose.

it'll be hard to trade him if he's doing well, but if he becomes a decent pro QB, do we miss Williams? OR does Williams refuse to come here because Eberflus kept his job?

Mixed and limited success here makes it all so foggy it could hurt us.

People say Williams could be a every ten year QB but he still has to play well this year to prove that. I have watched 3 games and his WRS are wide open, lots of QBs can make that type of throw. So far the best team they have played so far was Colorado and they dont have a defense. We will see how it turns out. The best case scenario is Fields plays great and Williams plays great and we end up with the first pick. None of any of this matters if we dont get the first pick.

[BearFan PHX]

5 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

People say Williams could be a every ten year QB but he still has to play well this year to prove that. I have watched 3 games and his WRS are wide open, lots of QBs can make that type of throw. So far the best team they have played so far was Colorado and they dont have a defense. We will see how it turns out.

Of course this is true. You never get enough good competition tape from college players. There are lots of things that Williams is doing better in college than most QBs did, but youre right you never know how it projects into the NFL.

You made an interesting point earlier of what would Fields have to do for us to want to keep him. The hour is so late, but I'll try to think about what that could be. I'll try to set a threshold for my own decision. The biggest problem is that it will be probably be too small of a sample.

And even if Fields is really good, I guess it really matters what your scouts say about Williams, even if Fields is doing well. Rookie deal, generational talent yada yada

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Of course this is true. You never get enough good competition tape from college players. There are lots of things that Williams is doing better in college than most QBs did, but youre right you never know how it projects into the NFL.

You made an interesting point earlier of what would Fields have to do for us to want to keep him. The hour is so late, but I'll try to think about what that could be. I'll try to set a threshold for my own decision. The biggest problem is that it will be probably be too small of a sample.

And even if Fields is really good, I guess it really matters what your scouts say about Williams, even if Fields is doing well. Rookie deal, generational talent yada yada

The kicker will be a rookie deal looks much better than having to pay a QB 50 mil in 2 years for the cap space . let's say they view them as equals, Williams may be the better choice.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

The kicker will be a rookie deal looks much better than having to pay a QB 50 mil in 2 years for the cap space . let's say they view them as equals, Williams may be the better choice.

for sure thats gonna be part of it. But if you think Fields or Williams is the guy, that's gonna be a big factor too of course.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

I’ve watched a few of these Chase Daniel breakdowns. He is favorable to Justin and sometimes contradicts himself (in one part of the video he says Justin had a clean pocket most of the night then later he say he was under pressure all night).  But his dissection of the routes run and (improved) play calling gives a good perspective from what he’s seeing as a former NFL QB.  

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

7 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’ve watched a few of these Chase Daniel breakdowns. He is favorable to Justin and sometimes contradicts himself (in one part of the video he says Justin had a clean pocket most of the night then later he say he was under pressure all night).  But his dissection of the routes run and (improved) play calling gives a good perspective from what he’s seeing as a former NFL QB.  

 

I enjoy Chase's breakdowns.  The oline looks tough and the biggest thing missing is the feel for Mooney.  Get MHJ in the draft and this offense can be a wreaking crew.  Not every week will be like the past 2, but Fields is starting to show he can be a QB1.  I hope he builds and makes this offseason a thriller?

[Stinger226]

So if Fields plays well the rest of the year and we get the 1 st pick, then we trade Justin and take Caleb Williams, is there pushback from the players on the team because they leader got traded? If they take Harrison and a edge rusher, they should be ready to compete for a playoff spot. If they draft Williams it could be a year or two away from that? 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

So if Fields plays well the rest of the year and we get the 1 st pick, then we trade Justin and take Caleb Williams, is there pushback from the players on the team because they leader got traded? If they take Harrison and a edge rusher, they should be ready to compete for a playoff spot. If they draft Williams it could be a year or two away from that? 

who knows? its a VERY difficult question, and it'll be up to the GM and coaches.

The thing Im saying is that unlike last year, where we were rooting to tank after the slow start, that because of Carolina's pick this year, Justin playing well helps us even if we still intend to take Williams because Justin's trade value increases OR we keep him and use those picks on other impact players.

[adam]

5 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

So if Fields plays well the rest of the year and we get the 1 st pick, then we trade Justin and take Caleb Williams, is there pushback from the players on the team because they leader got traded? If they take Harrison and a edge rusher, they should be ready to compete for a playoff spot. If they draft Williams it could be a year or two away from that? 

My belief is if the Bears have the 1st overall pick, the only way they don't select Williams is if Fields literally keeps these last two games going as his norm and not an anomaly. Essentially, he would have to finish the year with 4K yards, 35+ TDs, less than 15 INTs with a few rushing TDs, a QB Rating over 100 and a QBR over 65.  That is where you get into top 5 QB range and are willing to pay him that amount in a year. He showed he can do it consistently. Otherwise, he is just an overpaid project QB that still needs to improve going into his 4th year. So at that point you might as well draft Williams and have the same project with 3 additional years on the rookie deal. Also, Poles didn't draft Fields, so unless he truly balls out and gets close to Lamar, Allen, Hurts level, they will draft Williams if they have the 1st pick.

If they don't and Williams goes elsewhere, I think they stick with Fields as long as he has more good games than bad.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

My belief is if the Bears have the 1st overall pick, the only way they don't select Williams is if Fields literally keeps these last two games going as his norm and not an anomaly. Essentially, he would have to finish the year with 4K yards, 35+ TDs, less than 15 INTs with a few rushing TDs, a QB Rating over 100 and a QBR over 65.  That is where you get into top 5 QB range and are willing to pay him that amount in a year. He showed he can do it consistently. Otherwise, he is just an overpaid project QB that still needs to improve going into his 4th year. So at that point you might as well draft Williams and have the same project with 3 additional years on the rookie deal. Also, Poles didn't draft Fields, so unless he truly balls out and gets close to Lamar, Allen, Hurts level, they will draft Williams if they have the 1st pick.

If they don't and Williams goes elsewhere, I think they stick with Fields as long as he has more good games than bad.

You're not wrong. But there are a bunch of scenarios even if JF balls out. I dont think it can just be a statistical threshold.

First off, the only way you really even have this decision is if you have that #1 pick. If Carolina's pick is #3, this is a whole different question. Williams is gone. Then you almost have to sign Fields. There is also a scenario where we trade both our first rounders to get the #1 for Williams, but without having the #1 to start off, it's probably Fields if he has played well for the rest of this season. And Poles has to know this could happen to our picks, so Poles definitely has a map for the future that he's ready to put in place with a Fields extension. And he's spent hours planning that particular path too, and with high picks to spend on non QBs, it's got to be a good lookin path with a bunch of high picks,  possibly from a trade down. We've seen the mock drafts here. They look Madden-like, but they are possible.

On the flip side, a lot of it depends on who you think Williams is. If you're 100% certain that he is a future hall of famer and multiple super bowl winner, you have to think about grabbing him whatever the price. That could mean trading both our first round picks, no matter how well Justin has played.

So these two scenarios, (not having #1, believing Williams is a god) both hugely affect the decision regardless of how well Justin has played. That's why it's tough to put a threshold on Fields that would force you to keep him. In terms of numbers anyway. If Fields takes this team to 2 playoff wins this year, then everything I just said doesnt matter of course.

But in terms of passing yards and all that, it might not even matter that much to whether he is our QB next year. Hat tip to rookie contract windows etc too.

However, one really interesting thing, is that if we do take Williams at #1, and even have to trade two first round picks to do it, if Justin HAS played decently or well this year, then his trade value would be huge too. And then you get those picks back anyway. For example you could trade a GOOD Justin Fields for two first rounders, and then package two of the FOUR we'd have to go up to #1 and get Williams and then STILL have two MORE first round picks.

If Carolina's has the number one pick, we could draft Williams, trade Fields for two firsts and have THREE more first rounders after taking Williams. And of course you can trade those down to get more picks, or afford to package two to get a Marvin Harrison Jr at #3 and have Williams, MHJr and another first rounder too.

Ironically, these dream scenarios are predicated on Fields playing really well the rest of this year. So if he exceeds the thresholds we've outlined above, that might even hasten his departure from Chicago in a trade!

But in all cases, that no matter what anyone thinks we should do about Justin, we should be rooting for him to win games and get better. We outsourced our tankathon to Carolina!

If Fields is bad, then this is all much easier, but we end up with less value. If we keep Fields then both top picks go to other players. If we trade him, or cut him, then we can get a rookie QB. Poles has us set up pretty well for whatever happens.

A real question that parallels this is do we keep Eberflus? Do we keep Getsy? Does keeping them make Williams not want to play for us? If we get new guys, which QB do THEY want to work with?

It's a multifaceted problem, but no matter how you split it up, keep him or trade him, the total draft + player value is the same. The better Fields plays, the more that is.

And we are in a VERY good situation right now thanks to Poles. Especially if Justin plays well.

[Stinger226]

If we win some games and Justin plays well and have the # 1 pick, that would be awesome. Anyway we go is a win win. It's a bonanza of picks either way. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Caleb also has some question marks like Fields with waiting longer for plays to develop and getting happy feet to vacate the pocket.  Fields listed at 6-3 and Williams at 6-1 brings some size issues but better than Bryce Young 5'11.  He will be facing some tough opponents in the next few weeks to gauge how he plays.  This is his make or break moment.  Either way, both guys playing lights out should be good for the beloved.

Notre Dame 21, Utah 16, California, Washington 7, Oregon 8, and UCLA 18.  

 

[BearFan PHX]

Yeah I have no crystal ball - Im trying to lay out all the scenarios, not even to pick which one is best. That's someone elses job at this point. But thats the next question - who will our coaches be next year? Their thoughts go into this strongly.