Weekly Tankathon Meter

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

At the beginning of the year Williams was generational, now he's a question mark.     I will trust Poles to do the right thing, if its draft a franchise QB, I wont complain a bit. Its just that's just a crap shoot . There is a  no brainer with Harrison, Bowers, a couple of OTs. I dont think any edge players are as as good as  Anderson last  yr or Carter. Go with what we can see, not guess at.

This gives me hope.  I'm still thinking Maye is the deal, but really want Fields and/or Bagent to take it.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

10 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Yes of course, Carolina probably wish they took Stroud instead of Young. If Poles figures it out, cool just saying don't reach because we have a high pick. Young may end up being good, it takes time to figure it out. Just like Fields, he has the rest of the year to prove himself.  Seems like everyone is just assuming he will fall.

For the record - if Bryce Young is able to stay healthy, I think he will be a top 10 QB, if not better.  Outside of his durability issues due to size, he would have been a bonafide one in every 5 year #1 overall pick. 

Fields looks like more of a guy who will be around 15-20. Maybe a year or two where he gets hot and ranks just outside of top 10.  I do think he is a starter in this league,  but I wouldn’t pay him big. But he could kind of become Tannehill (like when he emerged in Tennessee after leaving Miami). 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

yeah Im not saying any of the QBs are generational - I dont know. Im just saying, we passed last year, and the idea of finding a super bowl winner as a developmental project in the 3rd round is a longshot and a half.

If we don’t take a qb in top 5 (if we have a pick there), than I could only see if being a scenario where team moves down and recoups, and gets a JJ or Penix or Bo Nix and letting Justin compete with them or whatever plus getting more future draft capital. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

13 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

As of today - both look good. I will say, I think Young will be good too. 

[Stinger226]

9 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

If we don’t take a qb in top 5 (if we have a pick there), than I could only see if being a scenario where team moves down and recoups, and gets a JJ or Penix or Bo Nix and letting Justin compete with them or whatever plus getting more future draft capital. 

I think that may be our best option by having more choices. We will have 7 games left (probable) to see Justin prove himself. let's say he has several good games and a few duds. So we still know if his arrow is pointing up or will fail? This injury kind of screwed up his evaluation. Bring in another QB, let Bagent develop and still let Justin play it out. He will have some trade value when ever you decide to release him or pay him.

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

I think that may be our best option by having more choices. We will have 7 games left (probable) to see Justin prove himself. let's say he has several good games and a few duds. So we still know if his arrow is pointing up or will fail? This injury kind of screwed up his evaluation. Bring in another QB, let Bagent develop and still let Justin play it out. He will have some trade value when ever you decide to release him or pay him.

The best thing for Justin was to sit there and watch Bagent execute the offense more efficiently than he has.  I truly think Justin has a little stubbornness in his play style.  If he develops a sense of urgency, which may take some humility, it may save his career.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

The best thing for Justin was to sit there and watch Bagent execute the offense more efficiently than he has.  I truly think Justin has a little stubbornness in his play style.  If he develops a sense of urgency, which may take some humility, it may save his career.

I think he has bad traits  that is hard to change. When you put him in the position to just react instead of think , he does better. Roll outs that only have a couple of reads, or RPOs, run or pass. I think you pound the ball throw in some play action and you would then have a successful QB.

[adam]

With the loss, CAR is back at the top:

1. CAR 1-8, .510 SoS
2. ARZ 1-8, .538 SoS
3. NYG 2-7, .524 SoS
4. NE 2-7. .551 SoS
5. CHI 3-7, .476 SoS
6. LAR 3-6, .521 SoS

Bears drafting 1st and 5th.

[AZ54]

On 11/9/2023 at 8:29 AM, Mongo3451 said:

The best thing for Justin was to sit there and watch Bagent execute the offense more efficiently than he has.  I truly think Justin has a little stubbornness in his play style.  If he develops a sense of urgency, which may take some humility, it may save his career.

Look at Justin’s  sideline demeanor this past game and even in the locker room post game and I think he knows he’s got to improve.  That’s not to imply Bagent has been better but the fact is he has won two games while Justin was out.   Worse, when asked about the QBs Poles gave no vote of confidence.  At this time the Bears have first overall pick in the next draft too.  I think Justin knows he’s got 7 games to prove he’s the QB of the future.  

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Look at Justin’s  sideline demeanor this past game and even in the locker room post game and I think he knows he’s got to improve.  That’s not to imply Bagent has been better but the fact is he has won two games while Justin was out.   Worse, when asked about the QBs Poles gave no vote of confidence.  At this time the Bears have first overall pick in the next draft too.  I think Justin knows he’s got 7 games to prove he’s the QB of the future.  

I noticed that.  One thing I really liked seeing, a couple of weeks ago, was Justin calling the plays as if he were in the huddle.  That's a benefit of the headset.

[adam]

Indy playing NE this weekend, a potential win spot for NE. 

ARZ playing ATL, another possible win there to help the Bears.

Both those games at home for NE and ARZ. Those would be 2 huge wins for the Bears and drop them back to #4 and lock them in more at #1. 

[Pixote]

In addition to QB K Murray returning to play against Atlanta, RB James Conner also suits up and is expected to start. Good news for the Bears.

Just think, if Houston hadn't screwed the pooch and let the Panthers beat them, Carolina would be 0-9 and with basically a 2 game cushion for the #1 draft pick.

[BearFan PHX]

24 minutes ago, Pixote said:

In addition to QB K Murray returning to play against Atlanta, RB James Conner also suits up and is expected to start. Good news for the Bears.

Just think, if Houston hadn't screwed the pooch and let the Panthers beat them, Carolina would be 0-9 and with basically a 2 game cushion for the #1 draft pick.

Then again if Houston hadnt won a meaningless game at the end of last season, we wouldnt have had the first overall pick to trade last year in the first place to get Carolina's pick this year LOL call it even?

[Stinger226]

7 games will tell us who our QB will be next year and who the coach will be. We simply have to wait until the end of the year and the answers will be delivered to us. Carolina will be at least top 3, that nets us MHJ at the least.

[BearFan PHX]

40 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

7 games will tell us who our QB will be next year and who the coach will be. We simply have to wait until the end of the year and the answers will be delivered to us. Carolina will be at least top 3, that nets us MHJ at the least.

this is no doubt true. If Fields comes out as a completely different QB than we have ever seen, one who is dominant and looks like a top 10 QB, he will keep his job.

But to think that's a likely outcome is another thing, in my opinion. Incremental progress will not be enough, and the extra skills he has, like his incredible running ability, will not be enough. he has to show he is a top 10 QB as a passer from the pocket. He needs read the defense quickly, make fast decisions, and get the ball out in tempo to the right guy. And he needs to do that consistently. Flashes won't be enough.

We've tried the go with a substandard QB and build around him thing. It doesn't work. Not in today's game with the pass friendly rules.

You could increase the execution of our current scheme with Fields until you regularly beat the bottom half of the league - but then what? Is it incremental from there, or do you reach a ceiling where you find the top 12 teams are playing a different game - one that requires points and the ability to pass the ball well, for 4th quarter comebacks against other good passing teams etc.

So just like your pass coverage breaks down no matter how good it is if you dont have a pass rush, playing complementary football and Tony Dungy style running, scoring 17 points and strangling the opponent with a cover 2 breaks down when you meet teams that can put up 30+ points regularly, and in context of more receiver friendly rules.

We need to join the modern age. We need a real QB. If Justin Fields suddenly becomes that, great. Heck if Nate Peterman suddenly starts killing it in practice, gets his shot and puts up 50 points on a good NFL defense, then that's great too.

But its not going to happen, so you have to start planning for it now. We've got the high picks for exactly this scenario - it's here. Who are we going to take?

[adam]

3 hours ago, Pixote said:

In addition to QB K Murray returning to play against Atlanta, RB James Conner also suits up and is expected to start. Good news for the Bears.

Just think, if Houston hadn't screwed the pooch and let the Panthers beat them, Carolina would be 0-9 and with basically a 2 game cushion for the #1 draft pick.

I guess it is payback from last year. HOU somehow beat INDY in Week 18 gifting the Bears the #1 pick which allowed the trade to CAR. It worked out great for HOU as they drafted the right QB. 

[Pixote]

49 minutes ago, adam said:

I guess it is payback from last year. HOU somehow beat INDY in Week 18 gifting the Bears the #1 pick which allowed the trade to CAR. It worked out great for HOU as they drafted the right QB. 

Exactly, so they should have been grateful we helped them out and rewarded us by beating Carolina. LOL

[adam]

Darn, NE did everything they could to not win that game.

I can't believe IND is 5-5. Taylor missed a bunch of games, they have had 5 different QBs, and somehow they have 5 wins, beat BAL, TEN, and HOU, and lost to CLE by 1 point. If you could pick a roster between the Bears and Colts, it is hard to say you wouldn't pick the Bears. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

On 11/11/2023 at 1:03 PM, BearFan PHX said:

But to think that's a likely outcome is another thing, in my opinion. Incremental progress will not be enough, and the extra skills he has, like his incredible running ability, will not be enough. he has to show he is a top 10 QB as a passer from the pocket. He needs read the defense quickly, make fast decisions, and get the ball out in tempo to the right guy. And he needs to do that consistently. Flashes won't be enough

So let’s draft an unproven “generational” talent and start over.  ?

[BearFan PHX]

9 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So let’s draft an unproven “generational” talent and start over.  ?

why would you roll your eyes at that?

the only way to find a great QB is to keep trying people out until one develops. You cant really buy them already cooked. So you draft and develop them, until one of them actually blossoms.

The success rate on top pick QBs is around 50%, so any time you draft a guy you dont know what he will be in the NFL.

But buying a lottery ticket on a guy is better than staying with a previous pick who youve already looked at in depth and who you now know wont ever be a top 10 QB.

You seem to be saying youd rather have a guy that you know cant do it than to take a risk on a guy that might be able to do it because he might not be able to do it too?

If you think Im saying that any of the rookie QBs are cant miss, I'm not. They are as likely to flame out as not - we all agree on this.

But why keep Fields when you now have three years of film to see that he hasnt progressed in the basic parts of being a QB - reading defenses, and making quick throws with anticipation to the right guy? How is that a better path than continuing to search for someone who can, just because they aren't guaranteed either?

I think you give guys a few years, and then try again until you get it right. I really dont understand what is eye rolling about that.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

49 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think you give guys a few years, and then try again until you get it right. I really dont understand what is eye rolling about that.

Between 2007-18 the Browns drafted 5 “generational” QBs.  None of them worked out.  We’ve done this now twice since 2017.  (And this coming from a guy who generally thinks 1st round picks should be used on skill players).  I should add I’m a fan of getting a QB like McCarthy (from Michigan) but not until later in the draft.  
 

One thing a lot of people are dismissing is how well Justin was playing before he got hurt.  In those games he threw for 617 yards, 8TDs with 1 INT.  Also since that time the Bears have increased their running game to 4th overall in the NFL and their defense is ranked 14th overall (2nd in the rush game).  What was the common thread with this team early in the season (if you exclude two coaches getting fired)?  The defense was playing with third string players, the oline was a mess and Getsy was making questionable calls (one of those three things hasn’t changed).  
 

My belief is you need to build better around Justin and stockpile draft picks.  And probably change some coaches.  If Justin’s thumb doesn’t become a factor, I think we’re in for a great close out to this season.  

[BearFan PHX]

Cool, so now i understand the nature of our disagreement.

1) You think its less likely than 50% to find that great QB in the draft.

I cant say youre wrong. i dunno how Poles is at picking QBs. I also worry that it'll just be the same thing over again.

2a) You think Fields is going to develop into a good player

Here is where we really disagree. I see Fields' obvious skills. His legs, his arm, his size, all extremely impressive. But I hope we also agree that he hasnt really shown an ability to be a pocket passer. I think that's critical to NFL success in the modern age. Not to beating the bottom half of the league, but to be a contender, I think it's a necessity to have a QB who can read and exploit defenses.

2b) You think we can contend without a top 5 QB if we put a team around Fields.

I also think this is a vestage of days gone by, in the 1990s and before, complementary football worked. Tony Dungy could wear you down with time of possession and a bend dont break defense. Bill Parcells could win a Super Bowl with Jeff Hostetler.

You can still beat the lesser teams that way. But you're never going to beat KC, Miami, Philadelphia etc without being able to put up points, and lots of them. The rules have changed and defense no longer wins championships. And dont get me wrong defense is still extremely important, but the end of these contending playoff football games almost always comes down to who the last team to hold the ball is, as high scoring teams lead comebacks and trade leads back and forth in the 4th quarter.

So you may still think that Fields will become that guy, or that if you build a team around him, he doesnt have to be that guy.

I disagree with you about Fields, but I could be wrong. I hope I am, but I sure havent seen it yet and time is running out.

But I know that you need a top QB to win a Super Bowl in the modern age, so I think you're definitely wrong about building around a lesser QB as a recipe for success?

[adam]

Thank you Kyler! Huge win for the Cards and Bears. However, some new losers are popping into the conversation with GB and TEN now with 6 losses. 

1. CAR 1-8
2. NYG 2-8
3. ARZ 2-8
4. NE 2-8
5. CHI 3-7
6. GB 3-6
7. LAR 3-6
8. TEN 3-6

[Alaskan Grizzly]

57 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

But I know that you need a top QB to win a Super Bowl in the modern age, so I think you're definitely wrong about building around a lesser QB as a recipe for success?

So who is “that guy” for Chicago? 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Kyler is good. I think I would be interested in a trade for Kyler if they could somehow structure clean from a cap perspective. Bears get number 1 trade it for both cardinals picks plus Kyler and a future first. 
 

Than you have future assets a solid qb and tons of picks.