Weekly Tankathon Meter

[adam]

One of the worst scenarios was a CAR win and ARZ loss, and that is exactly what happened. The Bears now have the 2nd and 3rd picks in the 2024 draft.

1. ARI 1-7
2. CAR 1-6
3. CHI 2-6
4. NYG 2-6 
5. NE 2-6 
6. GB 2-5
7.  IND 3-5
8. DEN 3-5
9. LAR 3-5
10. WAS 3-5

The only good thing is CAR will play an easier schedule just based on their division, so if they tie with ARI, then they would get the better pick. The Bears have had the easiest SoS of the top group and 3rd easiest in the NFL (NO, ATL). They still have to play CAR and ARI which will bring their SoS down even further, so they will always win the SoS tiebreaker.

[adam]

1. ARZ 1-8
2. CAR 1-6 vs. IND
3. CHI 2-7
4. NE 2-7
5. NYG 2-6 vs LVR

Bears currently drafting 2 and 3. I don't know if Arizona wins another game. 

[Stinger226]

Where's Kyle Murray?

[adam]

If CAR can't beat IND today or CHI on THU, I doubt they win another game (maybe GB).

So then it will come down to SoS and CAR will beat ARZ for the #1 pick.

It looks like the Bears will get 4-5 wins, CAR and ARZ, and maybe MIN. That probably ends up with pick #4 or #5 meaning they would miss out on MHJ if they chose a QB at #1. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

8 hours ago, adam said:

1. ARZ 1-8
2. CAR 1-6 vs. IND
3. CHI 2-7
4. NE 2-7
5. NYG 2-6 vs LVR

Bears currently drafting 2 and 3. I don't know if Arizona wins another game. 

If Kyler comes back than they might. But maybe they won’t bring Kyler back? 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I think Murray will be active this next week. We have to see - but supposedly he really likes new coachinf staff and vice versa. I would actually take a flyer on Murray if you didn’t want to draft a qb. Kingsbury is trash and he looked pretty good early in his career. 

[Pixote]

21 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think Murray will be active this next week. We have to see - but supposedly he really likes new coachinf staff and vice versa. I would actually take a flyer on Murray if you didn’t want to draft a qb. Kingsbury is trash and he looked pretty good early in his career. 

I just read on NFL.com that K Murray is indeed starting this week against Atlanta. Let's hope he is able to get Arizona a few wins to help our chances that Carolina's pick is #1.

[BearFan PHX]

49 minutes ago, Pixote said:

I just read on NFL.com that K Murray is indeed starting this week against Atlanta. Let's hope he is able to get Arizona a few wins to help our chances that Carolina's pick is #1.

amen

[adam]

1. ARZ 1-8
2. CAR 1-7
3. CHI 2-7
4. NYG 2-7
5. NE 2-7
6. LAR 3-6

Of this group, CHI and CAR have the lowest SoS, which gives them the tiebreaker over other teams. So once ARZ has their bye, they would be back in a tie with CAR, but CAR wins the tiebreaker for the first pick. 

With how bad this season has been, the Bears have only 2 fewer wins than Pick 17. 

[adam]

So Week 12 is going to be huge for the tankathon with 4 teams head to head, meaning 2 of the bottom 6 will add another win.

It looks like the most realistic outcome is CAR and ARZ both losing out. The Bears probably win 2-3 more. LAR will also win 2-3 more. That leaves NYG and NE. I can't see NE losing out, Bill will sneak a game or two out.

For NYG though? They were bad with Daniel Jones, now look terrible. Can they win another game?

[Mongo3451]

I think Arizona is in full tank mode regardless of Murray.  They know he's not the guy and want one of those pics at the top.  I'll be surprised if they win another game.

[Stinger226]

22 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I think Arizona is in full tank mode regardless of Murray.  They know he's not the guy and want one of those pics at the top.  I'll be surprised if they win another game.

How would you like to be Arizona, Giants, Denver that paid QBs and still have a need at QB. This coming off season is very critical to make the right move. They have 4 choices to make.

Keep Fields  and have Bagent as a backup

Trade Fields, draft a QB in the first round

Trade Fields, go with Bagent, and draft another QB .

Keep Fields and Bagent, then draft a QB in mid rounds.

I think with a  new coaching staff, adding 2  blue chip players ( MJH or Bowers one of them) and draft a mid round QB, they have all the bases covered. If Fields bombs out, Bagent takes over as the rookie gets developed. You have 3 shots at the gold ring. 

The top QBs aren't guaranteed anything. 

 

[adam]

Now with the Sweat deal, I feel like Poles wants to trade down and recoup some additional draft capital. I can see them trading either one of those high picks and gaining an extra 1st in 2025 and potentially gaining back a 2024 2nd.

[adam]

Looking ahead to the draft, some potential trade partners include:

ARZ - multiple 1st rounders, need QB
WAS - multiple 2nd rounders
PHI - multiple 2nd rounders
NYG - need QB
DEN - need QB
LVR - need QB
ATL - need QB
LAR - need QB

 

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

How would you like to be Arizona, Giants, Denver that paid QBs and still have a need at QB. This coming off season is very critical to make the right move. They have 4 choices to make.

Keep Fields  and have Bagent as a backup

Trade Fields, draft a QB in the first round

Trade Fields, go with Bagent, and draft another QB .

Keep Fields and Bagent, then draft a QB in mid rounds.

I think with a  new coaching staff, adding 2  blue chip players ( MJH or Bowers one of them) and draft a mid round QB, they have all the bases covered. If Fields bombs out, Bagent takes over as the rookie gets developed. You have 3 shots at the gold ring. 

The top QBs aren't guaranteed anything. 

 

I'd just like to start with having a QB to over pay in the first place...?

Seriously, they are hosed...

[ChileBear]

3 hours ago, adam said:

Looking ahead to the draft, some potential trade partners include:

ARZ - multiple 1st rounders, need QB
WAS - multiple 2nd rounders
PHI - multiple 2nd rounders
NYG - need QB
DEN - need QB
LVR - need QB
ATL - need QB
LAR - need QB

 

Don't be surprised if the NYG end up with the top pick and it's conceivable that NE Pats move up. We're playing to win games-coahces want to save their job and Fields wants to prove he's got it, and we probably will win some more. With Murray coming back, the Cards are going to be playing to win. Carolina is probably our best option for top pick now. NYG are a mess and, right now, the best bet to be tanking the rest of the season. I'm beginning to doubt that we'll have 2 of the top five picks now.

 

[BearFan PHX]

We absolutely need to beat CAR. I want the best shot at the number one pick. But it might lower our pick too.

So I wonder, would anyone rather have #2 and #3 instead of, say, #1 and #5? Im pretty sure I want #1 no matter what it does to our other pick.

Thoughts?

[adam]

15 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

We absolutely need to beat CAR. I want the best shot at the number one pick. But it might lower our pick too.

So I wonder, would anyone rather have #2 and #3 instead of, say, #1 and #5? Im pretty sure I want #1 no matter what it does to our other pick.

Thoughts?

#1 is worth the most, so you want that at all costs.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

#1 is worth the most, so you want that at all costs.

That's what Im thinking too. And if you dont want Williams or Maye, you can trade it down to 2 or 3 for a fortune.

I want to win this one more than I want to win any other remaining game this season, and we should be able to.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

That's what Im thinking too. And if you dont want Williams or Maye, you can trade it down to 2 or 3 for a fortune.

I want to win this one more than I want to win any other remaining game this season, and we should be able to.

If we dont have the top pick it lowers our trade capital. 2 nd spot may have some value but just not the same. The only control we have is to beat Carolina and hope for the best. I suspect we win some games but will still remain in the top ten. The key to the draft is add as many blue chip players as possible , not draft a top 2 QB. There are other QB prospects that will have have future upside. Poles has to win next year or his job will be in  crisis. I dont think a rookie does that for him., between Fields and Bagent they have next year covered. Draft a QB later in the draft and get new coaches that design our offensive to fit Fields or Bagent . If at end of next year we have 2 successful QBs and a prospect on the horizon, we will have choices going forward. Players and coaches first and then make QB decisions. How much would Fields be worth if he has an successful finish to this year and good 2024  OR take us to a SB?

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, Stinger226 said:

If we dont have the top pick it lowers our trade capital. 2 nd spot may have some value but just not the same. The only control we have is to beat Carolina and hope for the best. I suspect we win some games but will still remain in the top ten. The key to the draft is add as many blue chip players as possible , not draft a top 2 QB. There are other QB prospects that will have have future upside. Poles has to win next year or his job will be in  crisis. I dont think a rookie does that for him., between Fields and Bagent they have next year covered. Draft a QB later in the draft and get new coaches that design our offensive to fit Fields or Bagent . If at end of next year we have 2 successful QBs and a prospect on the horizon, we will have choices going forward. Players and coaches first and then make QB decisions. How much would Fields be worth if he has an successful finish to this year and good 2024  OR take us to a SB?

I agree with some of this, but having a top 5 in the league QB is what this league is all about. Sometimes you find them later down the draft, sometimes top picks bust, but the odds are clear that your best chance, even if it's only 50/50, of finding a top 5 NFL QB is in the top half of the first round of the draft.

[Stinger226]

25 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I agree with some of this, but having a top 5 in the league QB is what this league is all about. Sometimes you find them later down the draft, sometimes top picks bust, but the odds are clear that your best chance, even if it's only 50/50, of finding a top 5 NFL QB is in the top half of the first round of the draft.

At the beginning of the year Williams was generational, now he's a question mark.     I will trust Poles to do the right thing, if its draft a franchise QB, I wont complain a bit. Its just that's just a crap shoot . There is a  no brainer with Harrison, Bowers, a couple of OTs. I dont think any edge players are as as good as  Anderson last  yr or Carter. Go with what we can see, not guess at.

[BearFan PHX]

32 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

At the beginning of the year Williams was generational, now he's a question mark.     I will trust Poles to do the right thing, if its draft a franchise QB, I wont complain a bit. Its just that's just a crap shoot . There is a  no brainer with Harrison, Bowers, a couple of OTs. I dont think any edge players are as as good as  Anderson last  yr or Carter. Go with what we can see, not guess at.

yeah Im not saying any of the QBs are generational - I dont know. Im just saying, we passed last year, and the idea of finding a super bowl winner as a developmental project in the 3rd round is a longshot and a half.

[Stinger226]

39 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

yeah Im not saying any of the QBs are generational - I dont know. Im just saying, we passed last year, and the idea of finding a super bowl winner as a developmental project in the 3rd round is a longshot and a half.

Yes of course, Carolina probably wish they took Stroud instead of Young. If Poles figures it out, cool just saying don't reach because we have a high pick. Young may end up being good, it takes time to figure it out. Just like Fields, he has the rest of the year to prove himself.  Seems like everyone is just assuming he will fall.

[Mongo3451]