Fools Gold and Silver Lining

[adam]

So looking thru team stats, I noticed a few things. 

First, the Bears team is not as bad as I thought. I figured that they were bottom 5 on offense and the defense was bottom 2. 

So for offensive yardage, the Bears are 24th overall, Passing yards - 20th, Rushing yards - 22nd. 

Defense is 29th overall, Passing yards - 27th, Rushing yards - 16th.

So on offense, I didn't expect the passing yards to be that good, but expected rushing to be much better.

On defense, I thought passing was going to be worse and was shocked the rushing defense was that good.

There are many ways to take this, but when I looked at the rest of the league, it made some sense. 

Here are the teams that average less than 300 yards a game:

CIN - 222 *
LVR - 250 *
NYJ - 273 
PIT - 275
CAR - 276
GB - 286 *

Of those bottom 6 teams, 3 teams averaged less than 200 yds passing AND 100 yds rushing (with asterisks). Those are some bad offenses.

Then onto defenses with 375 or more yards allowed:

LAC - 438 (-24)
SEA - 422 (-136)
PIT - 399 (-124) 
CHI - 383 (-75)
CIN - 282 ~ (-60)
GB - 382 ~ (-96)
PHI - 378 (-18)

Two teams showed up on both lists, CIN and GB. So GB is 1-1 yet they have a -96 yard differential and technically have a bad offense and bad defense. SEA, PIT, and GB are all fool's gold right now, yet all 3 teams are 1-1. Expect them to struggle over the next few weeks. 
 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 minutes ago, adam said:

So looking thru team stats, I noticed a few things. 

First, the Bears team is not as bad as I thought. I figured that they were bottom 5 on offense and the defense was bottom 2. 

So for offensive yardage, the Bears are 24th overall, Passing yards - 20th, Rushing yards - 22nd. 

Defense is 29th overall, Passing yards - 27th, Rushing yards - 16th.

So on offense, I didn't expect the passing yards to be that good, but expected rushing to be much better.

On defense, I thought passing was going to be worse and was shocked the rushing defense was that good.

There are many ways to take this, but when I looked at the rest of the league, it made some sense. 

Here are the teams that average less than 300 yards a game:

CIN - 222 *
LVR - 250 *
NYJ - 273 
PIT - 275
CAR - 276
GB - 286 *

Of those bottom 6 teams, 3 teams averaged less than 200 yds passing AND 100 yds rushing (with asterisks). Those are some bad offenses.

Then onto defenses with 375 or more yards allowed:

LAC - 438 (-24)
SEA - 422 (-136)
PIT - 399 (-124) 
CHI - 383 (-75)
CIN - 282 ~ (-60)
GB - 382 ~ (-96)
PHI - 378 (-18)

Two teams showed up on both lists, CIN and GB. So GB is 1-1 yet they have a -96 yard differential and technically have a bad offense and bad defense. SEA, PIT, and GB are all fool's gold right now, yet all 3 teams are 1-1. Expect them to struggle over the next few weeks. 
 

It seems like the Bears really implode in the second half.  Not sure if it is fatigue or teams really know how to exploit the weaknesses.  Maybe QB1 is trying too hard and locking up. 

[adam]

7 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

It seems like the Bears really implode in the second half.  Not sure if it is fatigue or teams really know how to exploit the weaknesses.  Maybe QB1 is trying too hard and locking up. 

Probably all of the above, and they have played really bad on all accounts, so if this is rock bottom, and they can only improve (unlock Fields, defense gels), this team may end of middle of the pack across the board AND GB may not be as good as the media is making them out to be. I mean, they only beat the Bears, lol.

[adam]

I am sure people will read this and be like Adam, "your" dumb, yards don't mean anything. There are too many yards in garbage time, good teams get the lead then coast, etc, etc. 

Checks 2022 stats" #1 Team Offense - KC, #2 Team Offense - PHI. Both played in SB and had the best two records in the NFL. 

Of the top 10 offensive teams in 2022, 9 teams made the playoffs, and DET missed the playoffs by a tiebreaker. All 10 had winning records. Of the bottom 14 teams for offensive yardage, 0 made the playoffs. 5 teams from 11-18th (5/8). The lowest offense to make the playoffs was 18th. Improving the offense is pivotal for the Bears. This with other data shows that you need at least a league average offense to make the playoffs.  

On defense, the top is not as important as the bottom. In general, defensive performance correlated less with overall performance than the offense. 7 of the top 12 made the playoffs. Of the bottom 12, 4 (MIN, SEA, NYG, JAX) of the bottom 12 made the playoffs. So that is good news for the Bears, they don't necessarily need a top 10 defense to compete but it doesn't hurt.
 

So going back to my earlier post, these teams are screwed unless they turn it around quick on offense: 

CIN - 222  (0-2)
LVR - 250 (1-1)
NYJ - 273 (1-1)
PIT - 275 (1-1)
CAR - 276  (0-2)
GB - 286 (1-1)

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

It seems like the Bears really implode in the second half.  Not sure if it is fatigue or teams really know how to exploit the weaknesses.  Maybe QB1 is trying too hard and locking up. 

I think a good part of it is that the offense cant make first downs and the defense cant stop anyone, so they get fatigued on defense, and start playing from behind on offense which makes it even harder to make first downs.

[Mongo3451]

38 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think a good part of it is that the offense cant make first downs and the defense cant stop anyone, so they get fatigued on defense, and start playing from behind on offense which makes it even harder to make first downs.

Bingo

 

[Stinger226]

They have started well in both games but penalties , missed blocks, bad decisions have derailed them from drives and like PHX said defense is on the field to  long and fatigue sets in and things blow up. Once they go back to the run and simplify the offense we will see better results. If they avoid TOs it will keep us in games.

[killakrzydav]

I think the Bears in general are fools 

[adam]

13 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

I think the Bears in general are fools 

That is a fair assessment. The problem I see is that the Bears hire too many GMs that think they are the smartest guy in the room. Pace was that way. Trubisky, Shaheen, etc. For Poles, he is trending that way too, Velus and passing on Carter. We need talent evaluators at all levels.

Then the coaches lately are the typical football coach. Nagy was the prototypical younger offensive coach working for a great HC. Flus comes in as the older throwback coach that wins with defense and rushing. They then hire Getsy as the popular OC hire and the schemes with the players they have are like a square peg in a round hole. It doesn't work. Too many clashing concepts. Fields is a game breaker, you take the good with the bad, but you don't bridle him, just let him play street ball inside of a loose structure of an offense. 

[Mongo3451]

4 minutes ago, adam said:

Poles, he is trending that way too, Velus and passing on Carter. We need talent evaluators at all levels.

You lost me on that one.  Poles seems like the antithesis of that.  Darnell Wright was what we needed.  If Poles made a mistake in this draft, it would be that he didn't draft an OG/OC with one of the high picks.  Poles understood we needed major help for Justin, so he traded for Claypool and drafted Velus.  They look to be mistakes.  Was DJ Moore, Dexter, Wright, Brisker, Stevenson, Jones, Pickens, Johnson, Edmunds, Gordon, Sanborn and Bagent a mistake?  I think he's brought us solid people for a base.  Getting Justin right is still the key.  He doesn't have much control over that...

[adam]

20 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

You lost me on that one.  Poles seems like the antithesis of that.  Darnell Wright was what we needed.  If Poles made a mistake in this draft, it would be that he didn't draft an OG/OC with one of the high picks.  Poles understood we needed major help for Justin, so he traded for Claypool and drafted Velus.  They look to be mistakes.  Was DJ Moore, Dexter, Wright, Brisker, Stevenson, Jones, Pickens, Johnson, Edmunds, Gordon, Sanborn and Bagent a mistake?  I think he's brought us solid people for a base.  Getting Justin right is still the key.  He doesn't have much control over that...

I think Poles is better than Pace, and I said he was trending towards Pace. I was referring to guys that don't stick to BPA. If you look back at all the picks, which the team has full control over, Gordon and Brisker would not have been the first 2 picks if you were going BPA. Velus absolutely would not have been a 3rd rounder, 5th, ok, but 3rd was a reach and ultimately a wasted pick. This year, the trade was a no-brainer if you didn't like the QBs. CAR didn't give up Burns or a 3rd first for a pretty big jump to the 1st overall pick. Getting Moore, an extra 1st and an extra 2nd was an easy trade. Then with a chance to draft Carter, who was arguably the #1 talent in the draft, you move down one stop to take a RT. Wright is solid and I like the pick, but don't love it. Then he goes CB, DL, DL with the next 3.

So in Poles first 2 drafts his top 6 guys were Gordon, Brisker, Velus, Wright, Stevenson, Dexter, Pickens

Instead of Brisker/Gordon, there were options like Pickens - WR, Ingram - G, Fortner - G, Petit-Frere - OT, then in the 3rd, instead of Velus, you could've picked Abraham - OL, Jones - CB, or Parham - OL. 5 OL options, all were there, but he went DB, DB, KR. Something like Pickens, Abraham, Jones would've been a great top 3 (WR, OL, CB) covered.

This is not revisionist history, these guys were on the board and highly rated. 

Then in 2023, there was the trade for Moore, which was fine, but then if he drafted at least one OL in 2022, maybe he feels better going with Carter this year. Then after Carter, depending on if you addressed WR in 2022, you could go with Marvin Mims, Rashee Rice, or John Michael Schmitz (was drafted after Stevenson and Dexter) who most of us wanted. For the DL, I would've been happier with Carter vs Dexter/Pickens, on the OLine, JMS + any OL listed in 2022 would be better than Wright alone. Getting Pickens or one of the 2023 WRs would be better than Velus.  So Carter, JMS, Rice or Mims, and Puka Nacua. Can you imagine a WR Room with Moore, Pickens, Nacua, Mooney, and Rice? Outside of Nacua, all the other picks were there when the Bears drafted. 

Again, it's apple to oranges at this point. You can't change anything but when assessing a GMs performance, you have to look back and see what the baseline would've been.

[Mongo3451]

10 minutes ago, adam said:

Again, it's apple to oranges at this point. You can't change anything but when assessing a GMs performance, you have to look back and see what the baseline would've been.

No you don't, because you are cherry picking.  No GM hits on even 80% of the draft.  He has drafted very solid pieces.  None of these guys jump out of swimming pools like drafts of the past.  He's trying to draft football players that will stick and build a good locker room.  Nobody criticized his draft last, because of you remember, he turned water into wine.  Velus was the hot button, the rest of the draft was solid.  How many other GM's didn't draft Brock Purdy?  Poles is building a solid base. 

Nothing he has done has jeopardized the future the way other GM's have.  He simply making up for lost ground by fixing other peoples blunders.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

For the record, I don’t see Claypool as a complete failure (yet).  Sure he didn’t look great last season, lots of reasons for that of which mostly unfamiliarity with the system had to do with.  Sure there was some immaturity but not completely the reason.  He showed up during training camp and started to perform.  He laid in egg in game one but apologized when he got called out on it and did his part in the next game (as the announcers pointed out during the game last week) and caught one of the only two TDs our team scored.  And that catch was slightly tipped and changed directions just before he caught it.  If he stays THAT type player, he’s a keeper.  

[adam]

Listen, I want them to win, on paper it looks like things are headed in the right direction, but there has been nothing on the field to suggest the team is any better now than it was in Nagy's last season. Under the new GM and HC, the Bears are 3-16, and will more than likely be 3-17 with 13 straight losses. The roster has been turned over, so we should start seeing the results. First two games, sure, call them preseason games, but now into Week 3, with all those live reps and several weeks of prep, the players should be in a groove and clicking. If they look bad against KC again, then I don't know if they can turn things around. Again, even in a loss, just look better, be competitive. 

Claypool has all the physical tools to dominate, but he plays soft for some reason. There are two WRs with his physical numbers, Megatron and Claypool. He has to unlock that somehow. 

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

No GM hits on even 80% of the draft.  He has drafted very solid pieces.  None of these guys jump out of swimming pools like drafts of the past.  He's trying to draft football players that will stick and build a good locker room.  Nobody criticized his draft last, because of you remember, he turned water into wine.  Velus was the hot button, the rest of the draft was solid.  How many other GM's didn't draft Brock Purdy?  Poles is building a solid base. 

Nothing he has done has jeopardized the future the way other GM's have.  He simply making up for lost ground by fixing other peoples blunders.

I agree. Plus, I give him a break for Claypool and VJ, because it was the first year and he didnt really have the draft capital or cap room to do much else. He was trying to get his QB some weapons so they could evaluate Fields. He was reaching, for sure, but like you say, that wasnt his fault, and not a behavior hes continued, it was the hole that others left for him, especially that first year.

[Mongo3451]

Remember when Russell Wilson was an annual MVP candidate?  Now, he's not so good.  Remember when Tua was a bust?  Now?  Geno Smith?  Let's send the positive vibes on game day!  Things can change...

[adam]

Welp, the silver lining is gone, this entire organization is a pile of crap. GM replaced rotational players with new rotational players. Coaches have the worst schemes in the league. Players can't execute anything right. On every play, someone is doing something wrong. Football is not that hard. People make this out to be rocket science and fans don't know shit. That is total BS, half the players are at a 4th grade reading level, so no, this is not hard. The only thing players have over normal people is physical traits suited for the game. Without those, they are working at Home Depot or as a plumber just like us. 

[Stinger226]

Im a retied plumber, is anyone else in here a plumber? Adam are you?

Im the person that always looks for the silver lining. The problem is , I dont see one right now.

Is the silver lining getting 2 top 5 picks and we draft Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr ? Or Jon Alt (LT)?

Was there any coach we could have hired that would have had different results? Sean Payton was hired by Denver and  they just lost 70-20. 

I think we are stuck in LaLa land with complete makeover of the roster. I dont think whoever we brought in would have had us a wining team right now. Last year with the worst roster in the league we played well enough to be in 11 games and won 3. The sad reality is it will take 3-4 years to show results of 3 drafts to turn this around. 

Had Poles not traded the second pick the next 4 WRs drafted were Mingo-Jayden Reed-Rashed Rice-Marvin Mins. Would any have them made us a winner right now?

If we took Carter instead of Wright with our first pick , we may have a better DL but the OL would be in worst shape than right now. 

The point Im trying to make is this team would have been bad no matter who we drafted. The one key to have a better future would have been a better coach than Flus but no way we are a winning team , so we have to continue to suffer this year. If we dont turn it around Flus will be fired and Warren and Poles ( not going anywhere) will make a new hire with 2  first round picks. We dont know yet if that will be better.

[Mongo3451]

7 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Is the silver lining getting 2 top 5 picks and we draft Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr ? Or Jon Alt (LT)?

This is where we are headed.  Caleb Williams is generational, so he is a must.  I had mentioned in another post, that someone will be arrogant enough to think they can fix Fields, so there's a trade.  There is a ton of WR talent on this draft.  It's being proven proven that elite receivers are not required to have a great passing game, so trade the other first rounder to someone that wants to move to get one of the other top QB's.  A center, guard, 2x edge and WR are a must this off season.  We already have 5 picks in the first 4 rounds, so trading a first rounder will give us 8 in the first 4 rounds, with 5 being in the first 3.  This off season can finally be the one that provides stability for a new franchise QB, with good depth and youth.  We are also sitting at 111 million in cap space next year, second only to the Patriots.  We have options galore, again.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

This is where we are headed.  Caleb Williams is generational, so he is a must.  I had mentioned in another post, that someone will be arrogant enough to think they can fix Fields, so there's a trade.  There is a ton of WR talent on this draft.  It's being proven proven that elite receivers are not required to have a great passing game, so trade the other first rounder to someone that wants to move to get one of the other top QB's.  A center, guard, 2x edge and WR are a must this off season.  We already have 5 picks in the first 4 rounds, so trading a first rounder will give us 8 in the first 4 rounds, with 5 being in the first 3.  This off season can finally be the one that provides stability for a new franchise QB, with good depth and youth.  We are also sitting at 111 million in cap space next year, second only to the Patriots.  We have options galore, again.

I don't think anyone would be arrogant enough to think that they could fix Fields. Maybe the Ravens would take him as a backup but at best you are getting a conditional late round pick.  His production as a passer is historically bad.  

[Stinger226]

On draft day you may get someone that fails to move up to a QB that's willing to give you a mid round pick to have a shot at a new body in the QB room. What would the Jets do right now if their choice is Wilson or Field's that they create a plan to use him to workout for a year. I thunk someone may take a chance.

[adam]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Im a retied plumber, is anyone else in here a plumber? Adam are you?

Im the person that always looks for the silver lining. The problem is , I dont see one right now.

Is the silver lining getting 2 top 5 picks and we draft Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr ? Or Jon Alt (LT)?

Was there any coach we could have hired that would have had different results? Sean Payton was hired by Denver and  they just lost 70-20. 

I think we are stuck in LaLa land with complete makeover of the roster. I dont think whoever we brought in would have had us a wining team right now. Last year with the worst roster in the league we played well enough to be in 11 games and won 3. The sad reality is it will take 3-4 years to show results of 3 drafts to turn this around. 

Had Poles not traded the second pick the next 4 WRs drafted were Mingo-Jayden Reed-Rashed Rice-Marvin Mins. Would any have them made us a winner right now?

If we took Carter instead of Wright with our first pick , we may have a better DL but the OL would be in worst shape than right now. 

The point Im trying to make is this team would have been bad no matter who we drafted. The one key to have a better future would have been a better coach than Flus but no way we are a winning team , so we have to continue to suffer this year. If we dont turn it around Flus will be fired and Warren and Poles ( not going anywhere) will make a new hire with 2  first round picks. We dont know yet if that will be better.

Someone mentioned it before, so I assumed most on here were doing tradework. 

So on the draft, you have to go back to his first draft and the entire philosophy. With gaping holes at OL and DL, he went CB and S with his first two picks as a GM. Then with his early 3rd rounder, drafted a senior citizen KR. Come on man. Brisker is not better than any other Safety picked between the 2-4th rounds. Gordon sucked last year and now is on IR. Velus is standing in the end zone for touchbacks and has 1 touch on offense for -3 yards in his first 3 games. He needed to get the trenches fixed or go WR early to get a stud like Pickens. The OL is fine if they draft Michael-Schmitz (C) and got a OT in 2022 with one of those first 3 picks. There were several available. So that would've allowed him to take Carter in the first this year. 

[adam]

Ravens or Colts (behind Richardson), or Carolina with Reich. He needs an actual ex-QB as his HC, OC, or QB Coach. 

 

On a side note, ARob has 11 receptions for PIT, which would tie for the team lead on the Bears. That is how bad it has gotten. 

Edwards is 2nd in the NFL in tackles, and Edmunds is 8th (31)

Kmet is tied with Kelce with 11 receptions
 

RBBC is not working, Fields is leading rusher and the best RB is Herbert with 93, Roschon has 90 with 6 fewer carries.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, adam said:

Someone mentioned it before, so I assumed most on here were doing tradework. 

So on the draft, you have to go back to his first draft and the entire philosophy. With gaping holes at OL and DL, he went CB and S with his first two picks as a GM. Then with his early 3rd rounder, drafted a senior citizen KR. Come on man. Brisker is not better than any other Safety picked between the 2-4th rounds. Gordon sucked last year and now is on IR. Velus is standing in the end zone for touchbacks and has 1 touch on offense for -3 yards in his first 3 games. He needed to get the trenches fixed or go WR early to get a stud like Pickens. The OL is fine if they draft Michael-Schmitz (C) and got a OT in 2022 with one of those first 3 picks. There were several available. So that would've allowed him to take Carter in the first this year. 

You cant fill every weakness in two drafts , so  had we picked a different player, we would still have weaknesses somewhere else. JMS  is starting in NY but he's not getting rave reviews but I do expect him to be good in the future. I find it unfair to look back at a draft and say we should have picked that person 2 games into a season. We have to let it play out to give a fair evaluation.