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Week 5 Official TNF Palate Cleanser Loss Thread - CHI @ WAS, THU, OCT 5, 715PM CDT, Amazon, +6.5, 44.5 O/U


adam

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What better way to cleanse yourself from a bad loss with another loss? The best part, the Bears will have 10 days to talk about this loss until their next loss.

I don't see any way this team magically rebounds after that loss, not with only walk-thrus this week. On a short week with a good portion of the secondary still out, the Commanders have a great receiving corps with McLaurin, Samuel, and Dotson, all over 100 yards receiving. Brian Robinson has also been great on the ground with 261 yds (Herbert has 196).

The x-factor is Sam Howell. He has 4 TDs and 5 INTs. That's it though. 

If things don't change, especially on defense, this is another loss, drop to 0-5. Right now I am going Commanders 30-20.

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1 hour ago, killakrzydav said:

Over. 
 

i think I’m firmly on the player development train. Loose enough for Caleb and fire the coaches.

Yep, unless they somehow won like 6 straight games, there is no coming back from 0-4, and that would kill the draft chances for a lost season. I suspect some other teams will start to "play more of their younger players" too. 

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4 minutes ago, ChileBear said:

???

I have been watching the Bears as long as I can remember, even listening to games on the radio, and there were too extended stretches of suck, late 90's going from Wanny to Jauron and then Trestman to Fox. 

The worst 3 year stretch was 14 wins from 97-99 and again in 14-16 AND 15-17.

I didn't think they could get lower than that, but 9 wins right now in the last 2 1/4 years with 13 games remaining.

They would have to win 5 just to tie their worst 3-year stretch in the last 40 years, and technically that would still make it the worst because of the 17th games in 2022 and this year. So as to not be the worst 3-year stretch in winning % since 73-75 (50 yrs ago), they have to win 6 of the last 13. That ain't happening. So Pace and Poles with Nagy and Flus have masterminded the worst 3-year stretch in the last 50 years of Bears football, and we have had some bad football in that half century, but nothing like this.

 

Here are the 4 worst 2-year stretches in franchise history (since 1920):

3-18  .143 (22-23 Eberflus)
8-24 .250 (16-17 Fox)
8-24 .250 (97-98 Wannstedt)
7-21 .250 (73-74 Gibron)

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adam, youre so right - this is the worst team in football for the second year running.

But we have real reasons for optimism too, assuming you fire the coaches. Our roster isnt really that bad at all, and we have draft and salary cap capital galore.
 

 

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4 hours ago, adam said:

What better way to cleanse yourself from a bad loss with another loss? The best part, the Bears will have 10 days to talk about this loss until their next loss.

I don't see any way this team magically rebounds after that loss, not with only walk-thrus this week. On a short week with a good portion of the secondary still out, the Commanders have a great receiving corps with McLaurin, Samuel, and Dotson, all over 100 yards receiving. Brian Robinson has also been great on the ground with 261 yds (Herbert has 196).

The x-factor is Sam Howell. He has 4 TDs and 5 INTs. That's it though. 

If things don't change, especially on defense, this is another loss, drop to 0-5. Right now I am going Commanders 30-20.

(Great) WR room?  Sharps football analysis 2023 NFL Wide Receiver & Tight End Rankings has Washington ranked 22nd and the Bears ranked 21st. There are many rankings but this is just the first that google pulled up. My point is they are a good group but not great. This may well be a loss but it will be because we screw up not because Washington is a powerhouse.

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I'm all aboard the tank train again this year, but I really want to see Justin Fields get a win at some point soon, just for the sake of his mental state. He's a good kid who's been put in a god awful situation. I'd love nothing more than to see him light it up against Thursday and pull of an upset win against a team that he had beaten last year around this time.

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1 hour ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I'm all aboard the tank train again this year, but I really want to see Justin Fields get a win at some point soon, just for the sake of his mental state. He's a good kid who's been put in a god awful situation. I'd love nothing more than to see him light it up against Thursday and pull of an upset win against a team that he had beaten last year around this time.

Agree with this - he is a super easy guy to root for. Nothing would make me happier than to see him become an all time great for the Bears. 

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If he plays as well as he did against the Broncos, there is no way we dont get some wins out of it. That's a big ask this week going on the road against one of the better DL in football. Against the Eagles they had 3 sacks and 8 QB hits. Hurts had 9 rushes for 34 yds. Maybe Fields rushing will be the key?

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11 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

(Great) WR room?  Sharps football analysis 2023 NFL Wide Receiver & Tight End Rankings has Washington ranked 22nd and the Bears ranked 21st. There are many rankings but this is just the first that google pulled up. My point is they are a good group but not great. This may well be a loss but it will be because we screw up not because Washington is a powerhouse.

OK that's fair, but McLaurin is top 10, Samuel and Dotson are very solid. 

You are right on that, the Bears will lose the game, WAS won't do anything spectacular to win it.

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Peter King speculated mentioned he wouldn’t be shocked if Bears moved on from Flus if they lose this one. While I don’t believe it - King doesn’t just say stuff. 
 

I don’t know what they do in that scenario - but - if Flus has lost the lockeroom (and I don’t yet get that vibe but maybe he has), I still don’t know who and what you can do. If you lose Flus - you now have no DC and no HC - so you are going to be super short………

Unless McCaskey calls in a favor and hires Lovie Smith who brings his old friend Marinelli in. Getsy and everyone else stays in their roles - but lovie brings clout and respect to the situation and Marinelli can call the D. More than anything you get two highly respected leaders of men - not saying they are long term fits - but to be honest - we have had worse coaches than Lovie. 
 

But they both know this defense so from an adjustment perspective it might just work. I also can’t ever remember a team firing a coach and hiring an interim coach from outside so this would clearly be unprecedented.  

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Right.

There are a bunch of different considerations here and they all get tangled up.

1. Does Eberflus deserve to get fired as a reaction to the poor play?
2. Is the decision made that he will be gone at the end of the year at least?
3. Is there any benefit to firing him now?
4. Logistically who would replace him?

So if you're Poles and even if you're 100% yes on 1 and 2, you still have to think about 3 & 4.

People tend to get to a decision point yes on #2 (if they've gotten that far yet), and if they're mad they get a yes on #1 as well. They might think "Eberflus is trash and the team looks so awful he deserves to be fired immediately." I can understand that sentiment, but you've really only thought through 1 and 2, and they are at 3 emotionally, but not logistically.

If you're Poles and you know you're cleaning house, what is the benefit (#3)? What's the plan? To try to salvage 7 wins out of the season in a peak effort? What's the point in that? I mean it'd be an amazing accomplishment, but what does it really get you?

Plus to #4, whoever you get now should be an interim coach, and you should open the search to lots of possibilities after the season that dont exist now. So it's not like if you do get that miracle 7 win season (going .500 from here out) that rolls over into next year. It doesn't. Because the coach won't be your guy.

You bring in Lovie and he wins a few games, and people want him to stay because he won 6 games. You see the mess you make doing something like that.

So I think Poles backs into this question. He thinks "what are my goals for this season now?" and then lets that lead who he fires and when.

In other words, don't be surprised to see Flus stay most of the year. Firing him now doesnt really get you anything. Even if you're mad as hell at him, and think he deserves it like I do.

Firing Flus would be more emotional and fan theater, but in terms of adding to the culture the next coach will build here, it doesn't really mean anything.

I hate that we're here so early in the season. Again.

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I cant imagine Lovie being willing to be interim coach. He'd want to be hired on a multiyear contract, and I don't think he's the best option they will have in February.

It will be someone who wants the first time head coaching experience on their resume. The obvious internal replacement would be Hightower, just because we have no DC and Getsy should probably get the axe with Flus if he gets fired. Hightower has been stuck in special teams for 10 years, but before that was an assistant working with wide receivers one year and defensive backs another.

I suppose you'd promote a position coach to coordinator on each side of the ball then.

So once you see what that all looks like, you might ask yourself - why am I doing this? To make a point about Eberflus? And then decide to just wait until week 14 or something to do it, if you're gonna do it at all during the season.

If the job is for the brave captain to go down with the ship at the helm because someone has to organize meetings etc in a losing cause, Eberflus is a good choice. It's his mess in the first place.

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Due to a lack of candidates, I don't see Flus losing his job this early no matter what we do tomorrow. If he loses his players, it will probably be the bye week. I don't think he's lost them yet. We have some  injured players coming back and I expect Poles gives him more time to turn it around.

At game 13 , he's more apt   to do a temporary change with an inexperienced replacement but not now. The team played better against Denver so he gets credit from that.

As far as Poles I don't see him getting let go anytime this year. He has more positive moves than negative on his resume. Plus he has put us in a good cap space  and draft position.

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It can't get worse than with Flus right now. Getsy can be HC and OC, he is already calling plays on offense, not hard for him to manage timeouts. Then on defense, you elevate one of the coaches (Borgonzi, Curtis, or Hoke) to DC. They have to have a contingency plan in the event that Flus gets sick or gets COVID. Someone else has to know how to call plays on defense.

Bringing Lovie back would definitely be interesting but normally they just promote from within after an in-season firing. 

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16 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

 

Peter King speculated mentioned he wouldn’t be shocked if Bears moved on from Flus if they lose this one. While I don’t believe it - King doesn’t just say stuff.

 

Seen some discussion here about Flus potentially losing the locker room.  Curious if the team plays gang busters and wins (or comes close) that it’s a sign he hasn’t and they (the team) would prefer he stay?  And if they lose and look lackluster then it would be obvious he should be gone?  ??‍♂️

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