adam Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 This game is going to come down to injuries. There is a chance that Jefferson doesn't play. If that is the case, the Bears will only have to worry about Hockenson and Addison. Jefferson is such a huge percentage of their offense that it will be hard to imagine what they look like without him. Vikings come off a deflating loss to KC where they probably should've won. Bears are coming in brimming with confidence. Bears are home dogs, that should be enough motivation to win. If Jefferson plays, the Vikings will probably win, probably something like 27-24. If he doesn't play, I think it will flip and go 27-17 Bears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 1 hour ago, adam said: f Jefferson plays, the Vikings will probably win, probably something like 27-24. If he doesn't play, I think it will flip and go 27-17 Bears. I suspect we’ll see something like we have the last two games where the Bears come out and score 21-28 points in the first quarter or two. Then itll be up to the defense to keep them at bay for most of the second half. It’ll be close but I feel the bears will pull out a win…something like 28-24. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 I think it's telling that win or lose, when we do well, the other team is able to adjust at halftime and we cant overcome that and keep scoring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 28 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said: I think it's telling that win or lose, when we do well, the other team is able to adjust at halftime and we cant overcome that and keep scoring. That’s a defense and coaching thing…not a Justin thing. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 56 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: That’s a defense and coaching thing…not a Justin thing. ? absolutely! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 I was able to watch some of the Vikings-Chiefs game. Their defense will be the biggest challenge as the new DC Flores loves to bring pressure. Adam can likely jump in here with some stats but IIRC the announcers were saying they are one of the top teams to bring pressure in the NFL so far this year. There is no doubt they'll bring lots of pressure against us as it's either a run blitz or an extra guy to get after Fields and contain him from running. The flip side to any team choosing that approach is the big play potential with the right play calls and execution. The screen game takes a hit with Herbert out. The Vikings haven't been good against the pass so if he gets protection Fields should be able to find players open for quick passes. Can he pull the trigger? The Vikings offense feasts on the pass so certainly losing Jefferson impacts them but they were still able to move the ball against KC. We're also the worst pass defense in the NFL. As with any game against Cousins the key is pressure. We don't even need sacks just get him off his spot and make him uncomfortable. Maybe some home field noise can help with the rush. We're going to need another big game out of the offense to win this one and likely need to win the time of possession battle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 I tink the key to any games we win will be when our offense is clicking. Maybe the defense progresses later as the season goes forward but right now we need to score 28+ to win . Minny doesn't have a strong running game so we should have a similar defense strategy as the Washington game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killakrzydav Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 I think we light them up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixote Posted October 10, 2023 Report Share Posted October 10, 2023 Per NFL.com "Vikings plan to place WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring) on injured reserve, timeline for return TBD." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 Most plays gaining 20+ yards through Week 5: Dolphins - 32 Lions - 26 Bears - 25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DABEARSDABOMB Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 I am hoping we put up another 30+. Could care less what the defense does and whether we win or lose - want to see the offense keep rolling and young players get better and guys stay healthy. If we win - great, if we lose - than that could be a huge loss relative to the draft position battle (since Vikings are clearly headed into tank mode so getting them a 2nd win could be huge as Vikings, Panthers, and Patriots look like the 3 worst teams in the league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said: I am hoping we put up another 30+. Could care less what the defense does and whether we win or lose - want to see the offense keep rolling and young players get better and guys stay healthy. If we win - great, if we lose - than that could be a huge loss relative to the draft position battle (since Vikings are clearly headed into tank mode so getting them a 2nd win could be huge as Vikings, Panthers, and Patriots look like the 3 worst teams in the league. Winning felt good. I want another victory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted October 11, 2023 Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 We can lose the next 4 games or win them, I think we could be 500 very soon in this season. Minny will not be a push over but the coaches can make it easier for Justin. Hit a couple intermediate routes and they will have to change the rush sequences. Boom, Fields runs for 30 yards, they will all be jacked up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 11, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 11, 2023 The Vikings actually don't blitz (18.8% - 24th) or get much pressure (19.5% - 23rd). Washington blitzes more and gets more pressure than Minnesota. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 7 hours ago, adam said: The Vikings actually don't blitz (18.8% - 24th) or get much pressure (19.5% - 23rd). Washington blitzes more and gets more pressure than Minnesota. What is your source because everywhere I look I find them with a high blitz rate? Here they say 58% rate based off PFF data. Maybe everyone is using this PFF stat. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/why-vikings-blitz-heavy-approach-could-backfire-against-chiefs-and-patrick-mahomes/ “The Vikings are blitzing 58% of the time in four games this season, the highest by any team in a season since 2017 when PFF began tracking blitzes. It's also the highest blitz rate by any team in any four-game span since the Ravens in 2019. “ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 I think the low blitz percentage was last season for the Vikings https://purpleptsd.com/2023/vikings/vikings-analysis/vikings-defenders-bli/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 12, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 14 hours ago, AZ54 said: What is your source because everywhere I look I find them with a high blitz rate? Here they say 58% rate based off PFF data. Maybe everyone is using this PFF stat. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/why-vikings-blitz-heavy-approach-could-backfire-against-chiefs-and-patrick-mahomes/ “The Vikings are blitzing 58% of the time in four games this season, the highest by any team in a season since 2017 when PFF began tracking blitzes. It's also the highest blitz rate by any team in any four-game span since the Ravens in 2019. “ LMAO you are correct. The link I used directed me to the 2022 stats (huge difference). They blitz the most, 56.5% of the time, but they are 21st in pressure% at 21.4%. So that is not a very efficient. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted October 12, 2023 Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 I love to see the development of our offensive line. We are flirting with having the best line we've had in many many years. At the same time, with the task of evaluating Fields, it will be good to see him handle blitzes too. Not just being tough and standing in there, but making adjustments with receivers on the fly and punishing the Vikings for blitzing him. The great QBs quickly diagnose what you're doing, and then punish you for it, whatever you choice was. Beating blitzes is definitely a skill and I wanna see JF and the WRs do it consistently. JF has no better way to make his case than to win in the face of a tough foe. Good. Let's see it! This will be a good game to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 12, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2023 1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said: I love to see the development of our offensive line. We are flirting with having the best line we've had in many many years. At the same time, with the task of evaluating Fields, it will be good to see him handle blitzes too. Not just being tough and standing in there, but making adjustments with receivers on the fly and punishing the Vikings for blitzing him. The great QBs quickly diagnose what you're doing, and then punish you for it, whatever you choice was. Beating blitzes is definitely a skill and I wanna see JF and the WRs do it consistently. JF has no better way to make his case than to win in the face of a tough foe. Good. Let's see it! This will be a good game to watch. This team's offense was dead last in every category last year. Considering the only new players are Moore, Wright, and Davis, this jump is pretty impressive thru 5 weeks: Offense Yards - 13th Passing Yds - 16th TD% - 1st Y/C - 4th Sack% - 30th (one thing that will need to improve) Rushing Yds - 8th Rushing Y/A - 4th Also note, Fields had only 99 yards passing against KC. so that kills the averages and overall numbers. If he had a normal game around 210 yards or something like that, the Bears offense would be top 10 in yards, and top 12 in Passing yards. On a per game basis, without the KC game, the Bears passing offense goes from 228 to 261 per game which is good for 9th (ahead of SF, JAX, DET, and PHI). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted October 13, 2023 Report Share Posted October 13, 2023 2 hours ago, adam said: This team's offense was dead last in every category last year. Considering the only new players are Moore, Wright, and Davis, this jump is pretty impressive thru 5 weeks: Offense Yards - 13th Passing Yds - 16th TD% - 1st Y/C - 4th Sack% - 30th (one thing that will need to improve) Rushing Yds - 8th Rushing Y/A - 4th Also note, Fields had only 99 yards passing against KC. so that kills the averages and overall numbers. If he had a normal game around 210 yards or something like that, the Bears offense would be top 10 in yards, and top 12 in Passing yards. On a per game basis, without the KC game, the Bears passing offense goes from 228 to 261 per game which is good for 9th (ahead of SF, JAX, DET, and PHI). Yes but subtracting Mustipher is a net gain. Even if we started the season with Patrick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2023 8 hours ago, AZ54 said: Yes but subtracting Mustipher is a net gain. Even if we started the season with Patrick. Oh man, I totally forgot about him (I was trying to forget him). I was adding to @BearFan PHX comment about the O-Line improvement that the entire offense is better and it is tangible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASHKUM BEAR Posted October 13, 2023 Report Share Posted October 13, 2023 31 minutes ago, adam said: Oh man, I totally forgot about him (I was trying to forget him). I was adding to @BearFan PHX comment about the O-Line improvement that the entire offense is better and it is tangible. And Lamar and the Ravens are happy, Mustispher is doing great signed as a back up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted October 13, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2023 On a side note, Minnesota was something like 11-1 in one score games last year (will have to check that), and this year, all their games have been decided by 8 pts or less, and they are 1-4 with their only win coming against Carolina where they were losing by 6 and got a defensive TD and Jefferson TD to win it. In that win Jefferson had both offensive TDs (2). Jefferson makes up over a 1/3 of their passing yards and a 1/4 of their passing TDs. So that is a huge chunk of the offense from a surefire HoFer (and maybe a top 5 WR of all-time). Addison and Osborn are 3 to 4 tiers lower than him. So the biggest threat is Hockenson. The Bears need to bracket him and force Cousins to go somewhere else. I feel pretty good about this game, and if the Bears can't beat the Vikings without Jefferson, then the last win was more of a fluke than anything. Minnesota is 0-4 when they allow 20 or more pts, and 1-0 when then hold a team to under 20. Their offense has scored at least 17 in every game, but never more than 28. To me, that range should be lowered without Jefferson, to something like 13-24. So 17 feels about right for Minnesota. The Bears should score at least 24 as the offense is humming right now. So 27-17 feels good. Mattison has been ok, if not just meh as an RB. His long is 17 yards, which is the longest rush for the team. The Bears have 3 players with runs of 20+. Weather looks like it is going to be a huge factor. Mid 50s with rain and winds between 15-25 mph. So long FGs will not be possible. Foreman is going to get a lot of touches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted October 13, 2023 Report Share Posted October 13, 2023 2 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said: And Lamar and the Ravens are happy, Mustispher is doing great signed as a back up. His play has been praised but if you dig deeper he is just playing very average which is up tempo for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted October 13, 2023 Report Share Posted October 13, 2023 Last year, Freeman's first game start after McCaffery left, he had 118 yards rushing and 2-2 receiving for 37 yards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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