Montez Sweat for a 2024 2nd round pick

[Bill]

You can't hit the ball if you don't swing.

[adam]

10 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Brian Mitchel, a Washington sports figure said that Sweat is more signable than Young. Young is a me me player and will ask for the moon. Sweat has only missed 6 games in 4 years for injury. Young has missed 23 games in 4 years. No one knows on how all of this plays out. We need more time to see what Poles actually builds here in his third year  not at  1 and a 1/2 years. It would be dumb to think Warren didn't sigh off on this. Poles isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

The biggest issue is his knee. It is a ticking timebomb. After Ogunjobi, I can understand why Poles went the safe route. Also, SF will probably only use Young as a rental and let him leave and get another comp pick for him as they really don't need to sign any FAs this offseason. They are in better position to do that. The Bears are not and needed to solidify the edge position since Mack/Quinn were traded.

Poles is literally reading the "GM 101" rulebook. Just like the Moore trade, this was a no-brainer, with 2x 1sts, they could afford to give up the 2nd. 

[BearFan PHX]

14 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Brian Mitchel, a Washington sports figure said that Sweat is more signable than Young. Young is a me me player and will ask for the moon. Sweat has only missed 6 games in 4 years for injury. Young has missed 23 games in 4 years. No one knows on how all of this plays out. We need more time to see what Poles actually builds here in his third year  not at  1 and a 1/2 years. It would be dumb to think Warren didn't sigh off on this. Poles isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

I agree that the main value on the table here for the Bears wasn't the draft capital, it was the player youre getting and the money youre paying them for the next 4 or 5 years.

If Young wants a sky high deal, and that decreased his value and that's why he only got a 3rd in trade that makes sense. It also makes sense then that we would want Sweat on more reasonable terms. Plus he isnt always injured. And as you say, theres the selfishness and what that might do to your locker room.

Another hidden value in this trade is it frees up Demarcus Walker to go inside to join the rotation at 3T, and that lets you cut loose Jones at the end of the year. This may be a partial answer as to why we kept Walker over Gipson - anticipating adding another DE at some point and rather than losing any value for Gipson at that point, instead you pick up 3T value with walker.

If, for example, Walker and Dexter make enough of a rotation that you dont need to spend any draft pick at 3T in 2024, that's more value from that second round pick you traded for Sweat.

I also agree that allowing Poles to trade 2024 draft picks at this point is a strong indicator that Poles is not about to get fired. Of course that may change as new coaches may have their own demands, but I think youre right its a signal that Poles isnt already gone in Warren's mind.

Last, I'll say this. I think we agree when a coach or GM is terrible, you fire them. And we agree that when they are great you keep them. But I think we may disagree on mediocrity or base competence. If someone is doing a decent but not spectacular job, that's a good reason to keep them in most businesses. But in a zero sum game like the NFL, where only one coach or GM wins the super bowl and 31 others dont, you dont just want good - you want great. So the idea of giving someone more chances and time etc, is the sort of thing I love to see in my personal life, and even in many jobs - in the NFL if youre Poles and even doing a GOOD job, but someone incredible wants your job, theyre gonna take it from you. And thats as it should be.

So I'm less interested in fairness arguments, and more interested in "Poles is kicking ass" type arguments in his favor.

I do think Poles is doing well. I would keep him based on hows hes been doing. But if a 55 year old Bill Belichick wanted to come here, and he wanted to be the GM too, or bring his own guy or whatever, I wouldnt let personal loyalty or fairness to Poles come into the decision.

[Bears4Ever_34]

This move makes zero sense for the Bears. Sweat will be 28 next year and this team is nowhere near contention for anything.

Sweat is a good player, but he's also never had a double digit sack season. Especially with the talent WAS had with their front 4, it makes me question how good he actually will be now that he's moving to the worst defensive line in football where teams will have a much easier time game planning for him. Look no further than what we're seeing with Ngakoue right now. The Bears are going to be the only team he's ever played on where he hasn't had at least 8 sacks in a season. That is not a coincidence.

Chase Young is not worth 50+ picks less in value than Montez Sweat. I just don't believe that. I know injuries are a concern, but his ceiling is much higher, and a 3rd allows you to regain a compensatory pick back if things don't work out. By giving up a 2nd round pick for Sweat, you have no choice but to sign him to a massive extension and pray things work out. 

[BearFan PHX]

29 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

This move makes zero sense for the Bears. Sweat will be 28 next year and this team is nowhere near contention for anything.

Sweat is a good player, but he's also never had a double digit sack season. Especially with the talent WAS had with their front 4, it makes me question how good he actually will be now that he's moving to the worst defensive line in football where teams will have a much easier time game planning for him. Look no further than what we're seeing with Ngakoue right now. The Bears are going to be the only team he's ever played on where he hasn't had at least 8 sacks in a season. That is not a coincidence.

Chase Young is not worth 50+ picks less in value than Montez Sweat. I just don't believe that. I know injuries are a concern, but his ceiling is much higher, and a 3rd allows you to regain a compensatory pick back if things don't work out. By giving up a 2nd round pick for Sweat, you have no choice but to sign him to a massive extension and pray things work out. 

the value of the picks it takes to make the trade are affected by the deal the player is demanding. If Sweat is signing a decent deal thats team freindly he is worth a higher draft pick than a player who is demanding a huge bank breaking deal.

If you want to figure the relative value paid for these players, youve got to wait until you know the deals they signed too?

[Stinger226]

10 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I agree that the main value on the table here for the Bears wasn't the draft capital, it was the player youre getting and the money youre paying them for the next 4 or 5 years.

If Young wants a sky high deal, and that decreased his value and that's why he only got a 3rd in trade that makes sense. It also makes sense then that we would want Sweat on more reasonable terms. Plus he isnt always injured. And as you say, theres the selfishness and what that might do to your locker room.

Another hidden value in this trade is it frees up Demarcus Walker to go inside to join the rotation at 3T, and that lets you cut loose Jones at the end of the year. This may be a partial answer as to why we kept Walker over Gipson - anticipating adding another DE at some point and rather than losing any value for Gipson at that point, instead you pick up 3T value with walker.

If, for example, Walker and Dexter make enough of a rotation that you dont need to spend any draft pick at 3T in 2024, that's more value from that second round pick you traded for Sweat.

I also agree that allowing Poles to trade 2024 draft picks at this point is a strong indicator that Poles is not about to get fired. Of course that may change as new coaches may have their own demands, but I think youre right its a signal that Poles isnt already gone in Warren's mind.

Last, I'll say this. I think we agree when a coach or GM is terrible, you fire them. And we agree that when they are great you keep them. But I think we may disagree on mediocrity or base competence. If someone is doing a decent but not spectacular job, that's a good reason to keep them in most businesses. But in a zero sum game like the NFL, where only one coach or GM wins the super bowl and 31 others dont, you dont just want good - you want great. So the idea of giving someone more chances and time etc, is the sort of thing I love to see in my personal life, and even in many jobs - in the NFL if youre Poles and even doing a GOOD job, but someone incredible wants your job, theyre gonna take it from you. And thats as it should be.

So I'm less interested in fairness arguments, and more interested in "Poles is kicking ass" type arguments in his favor.

I do think Poles is doing well. I would keep him based on hows hes been doing. But if a 55 year old Bill Belichick wanted to come here, and he wanted to be the GM too, or bring his own guy or whatever, I wouldnt let personal loyalty or fairness to Poles come into the decision.

If you're referring to Justin Jones, he is a UFA after this year.

[adam]

2 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

This move makes zero sense for the Bears. Sweat will be 28 next year and this team is nowhere near contention for anything.

Sweat is a good player, but he's also never had a double digit sack season. Especially with the talent WAS had with their front 4, it makes me question how good he actually will be now that he's moving to the worst defensive line in football where teams will have a much easier time game planning for him. Look no further than what we're seeing with Ngakoue right now. The Bears are going to be the only team he's ever played on where he hasn't had at least 8 sacks in a season. That is not a coincidence.

Chase Young is not worth 50+ picks less in value than Montez Sweat. I just don't believe that. I know injuries are a concern, but his ceiling is much higher, and a 3rd allows you to regain a compensatory pick back if things don't work out. By giving up a 2nd round pick for Sweat, you have no choice but to sign him to a massive extension and pray things work out. 

That's why it seems to me that Poles thinks this team is closer to contending (next two years) than it seems. That was his original window, basically playoffs in 3 years (next year), then competing regularly for deeper playoff runs. His age is concerning only in the fact that this is his peak, rarely to players get better after 28. From what I read, 27 is the peak age for NFL players, and most don't improve much after that season.

 

[Stinger226]

22 minutes ago, adam said:

That's why it seems to me that Poles thinks this team is closer to contending (next two years) than it seems. That was his original window, basically playoffs in 3 years (next year), then competing regularly for deeper playoff runs. His age is concerning only in the fact that this is his peak, rarely to players get better after 28. From what I read, 27 is the peak age for NFL players, and most don't improve much after that season.

 

Hard to say on blue chip players, who would have thought Von Miller would be going strong at his age. Some last and some don't. I would say 2 strong years then no one knows. I would the next two years are our window if we keep Fields, otherwise we will see what his plans are.

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

This move makes zero sense for the Bears. Sweat will be 28 next year and this team is nowhere near contention for anything.

Sweat is a good player, but he's also never had a double digit sack season. Especially with the talent WAS had with their front 4, it makes me question how good he actually will be now that he's moving to the worst defensive line in football where teams will have a much easier time game planning for him. Look no further than what we're seeing with Ngakoue right now. The Bears are going to be the only team he's ever played on where he hasn't had at least 8 sacks in a season. That is not a coincidence.

Chase Young is not worth 50+ picks less in value than Montez Sweat. I just don't believe that. I know injuries are a concern, but his ceiling is much higher, and a 3rd allows you to regain a compensatory pick back if things don't work out. By giving up a 2nd round pick for Sweat, you have no choice but to sign him to a massive extension and pray things work out. 

We do not have the worst Dline in the NFL.   There's no way you can get to top 3 run D without a good Dline.   This is after 8 games so at this point it's statistically significant.  We do have the worst pass rushing Dline in the NFL, or at least we did.  Certainly one helps the other (meaning teams can pass on us so they run less but we're still 19th in rushing attempts against - so middle of the pack.   I'll also add that half of those pass D stats have been affected by us missing most of the secondary starters.  

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htm#all_rushing

[AZ54]

 

[AZ54]

Now that the deal is done, cost is sunk, what do we have for a defensive front?   Sweat immediately pushes all DEs down 1 notch.   That's a very good thing because Ngakoue is not a starting level player and playing less run down snaps should keep him fresher for his specialty pass rush.   I like Walker but he's a limited athlete, more of a good hustle defender.   Give him the early downs and Ngakoue the 3rd and longs.  Of course Sweat needs to get a break too but those top 3 DEs as our primary rotation should make us more productive than we've seen so far this year.   They'll toss in either DomRob or Green and who is active on game day likely depends on special teams.  

Where I really think this will help is with our interior rush.  It appears to me that Dexter is garnering more double teams lately.  Perhaps it's better to just say that with no edge threat on a pass rush teams are just using 3 IOL to block our DTs.   We certainly don't have anyone good enough to get through that.... yet.     

Sweat changes that calculus a bit.  He's not elite as a pass rusher but if a team has a weakness at OT, or the OT makes a mistake he's more than good enough to take advantage of it.  That can either draw some attention from a RB or OG to shade his way a bit, which can free up the interior a bit.   As a run defender he's top shelf and will only make our run D even better.    I also like the idea of having Sweat, Ngakoue, and Walker inside at 3-tech on 3rd and long.

 

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Now that the deal is done, cost is sunk, what do we have for a defensive front?   Sweat immediately pushes all DEs down 1 notch.   That's a very good thing because Ngakoue is not a starting level player and playing less run down snaps should keep him fresher for his specialty pass rush.   I like Walker but he's a limited athlete, more of a good hustle defender.   Give him the early downs and Ngakoue the 3rd and longs.  Of course Sweat needs to get a break too but those top 3 DEs as our primary rotation should make us more productive than we've seen so far this year.   They'll toss in either DomRob or Green and who is active on game day likely depends on special teams.  

Where I really think this will help is with our interior rush.  It appears to me that Dexter is garnering more double teams lately.  Perhaps it's better to just say that with no edge threat on a pass rush teams are just using 3 IOL to block our DTs.   We certainly don't have anyone good enough to get through that.... yet.     

Sweat changes that calculus a bit.  He's not elite as a pass rusher but if a team has a weakness at OT, or the OT makes a mistake he's more than good enough to take advantage of it.  That can either draw some attention from a RB or OG to shade his way a bit, which can free up the interior a bit.   As a run defender he's top shelf and will only make our run D even better.    I also like the idea of having Sweat, Ngakoue, and Walker inside at 3-tech on 3rd and long.

 

The DL got better today and Sweat is a better run defender than Young. Its a high price but that frees up our top 2 picks to not have to grab a edge rusher. The top pass rushers will go in the first round so the second round pick may have been a pass rusher anyways. Sweat will be a better player than anyone we probably could have drafted. Also Minny and GB are worse today. This is going to increase our win total that will lower our picks, so that high 2nd round pick may be 10 spots lower anyway. As far as age , he is in his prime. Our window to win is the next 2 years by the moves Poles has made. Next year will be the year that Poles will be judged on, not this year so he needs to win. I totally expect Poles to get extra picks with one or both of those high picks so that will minimize the loss of the high second pick. 

[adam]

Sweat probably pushes our run defense to a top 3 unit. Hopefully he can push the pass defense to a top 20 unit. If he can do that, and Fields can come back and play up to his potential, they may be able to scrape together some wins (4-5 more) by the end of the year.

Long-term, he needs to be signed to an extension or this will be a total waste of a draft pick, and Poles should be fired on the spot.

[adam]

He may be better than I thought. Since 2019, Sweat's rookie year, here is a list of players with 120 Tackles, 80 QB Hits, 40 TFL, 30 Sacks, and at least 1 INT.

TJ Watt, Nick Bosa, Shaquil Barrett, Josh Allen, Montez Sweat, and Cameron Heyward.

 

Removing the INT adds Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, Matt Judon, Cameron Jordan, Maxx Crosby, Brian Burns, Joey Bosa, and DeForest Buckner to the list.

I would think being in that company, you have to be pretty good, and actually somewhat underrated. That is arguably 14 of the top 20 DL/Edge players in the NFL. 

[CrackerDog]

Trade only makes sense if they sign him.  I haven’t seen anything on that yet.  Typically they have an agreement in place ahead of trades like this, no?  

[BearFan PHX]

5 minutes ago, CrackerDog said:

Trade only makes sense if they sign him.  I haven’t seen anything on that yet.  Typically they have an agreement in place ahead of trades like this, no?  

yeah, he needs to pass his physical first. I would expect the contract soon after.

[BearFan PHX]

23 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

If you're referring to Justin Jones, he is a UFA after this year.

I was, and if Walker/Dexter works as a rotation at 3T, then you dont have to worry about resigning him, or anyone else, and that is another hidden benefit of the 2nd rounder we spent is all I was saying.

[AZ54]

It is interesting to hear Ryan Poles state that they were not in trade talks for Montez and that his name didn't come up as available until just a few hours before the deal was done.  That means we were looking to trade for Young, and also that the Bears valued Sweat more than Young and immediately pivoted away from Young.   

Why at the last minute did the Commanders decide to move Sweat and Young?   The only thing I can think of is that they weren't getting a high enough trade value for Young and they really wanted a high 2nd Rd pick.   Which I'm going to assume this means they intend to be all-in for a QB this draft.   They are already trending toward at top 10 pick.  Get rid of your starting DEs only helps keep the tank on track.  Getting a high 2nd is ammo to move up to #1 overall.   All this could be funny if we end up with #1 overall from Carolina and then trade that to Wash and get our 2nd Rd pick back in exchange.  

[jason]

On 10/31/2023 at 11:37 PM, AZ54 said:

 

All the RAS talk is great, but never forget when the Bears drafted that pool-jumping dickhead, and he amounted to nothing. 

Rather than RAS players, I want players with high RFS (Relative Football Score). Someone who fills up the stat sheet and dominates, particularly against great competition. It's precisely why I hated the Trubisky pick when Deshaun Watson was available. Trubisky did less than Watson, against worse competition, and for one year only. That's a no brainer, pick Watson. Or, since another thread is talking Center, a perfect example is Tyler Linderbaum. Three straight years as a starting Center at Iowa, a historical offensive line factory. Obvious upside and minimal downside. 

[AZ54]

54 minutes ago, jason said:

All the RAS talk is great, but never forget when the Bears drafted that pool-jumping dickhead, and he amounted to nothing. 

Rather than RAS players, I want players with high RFS (Relative Football Score). Someone who fills up the stat sheet and dominates, particularly against great competition. It's precisely why I hated the Trubisky pick when Deshaun Watson was available. Trubisky did less than Watson, against worse competition, and for one year only. That's a no brainer, pick Watson. Or, since another thread is talking Center, a perfect example is Tyler Linderbaum. Three straight years as a starting Center at Iowa, a historical offensive line factory. Obvious upside and minimal downside. 

RAS is very limited and was never intended to be anything more than just a quick summary of athletic ability and stature relative to other players.  It has nothing to do with football skill.  It was all started by a guy just like us as a hobby.   It’s still a useful metric as a baseline or starting point to assess potential,  or fit in scheme, or position.  
 

Reality is successful NFL OTs have longer arms than OGs.    Just because a player has tools doesn’t mean he knows how to use them.    Sweat uses his long arms to keep OTs away from his body particularly when setting the edge.  He holds them off with one arm keeping his outside arm free to make a tackle.  

[BearFan PHX]

Amen. If your stats suck, if you run a 6 second 40, then youre not gonna make it in the NFL, but stats dont equal players. Football players are good at playing football, and sometimes their numbers are less than someone with super fast speed who doesnt have football talent.

Velus Jones is fast, DJ Moore is a football player.

[Mongo3451]

Other than really needing to upgrade our pass rush, try this angle.  Last year we traded for Claypool because we were desperate for WR help.  Would we have done that if we weren't desperate to develop Justin?  Don't think so. 

This year we can't get a pass rush.  Poles signs Walker, Ngakoue and Billings.  Drafts Dexter and Pickens, who we know need developed.  We still can't get to the quarterback.  At this point, Poles has to evaluate his coach and he used a second round pick to do it.  With our needs, it seems huge. 

In the long run, Poles needs to decide if Flus is the guy.  Is Getsy the guy?  Is Justin the guy?  The OL is working back into shape while Justin heals, giving us time to evaluate Bagent.  If Bagent succeeds, it means Getsy succeeds. (Check)  Hopefully, Justin returns and succeeds.(Check)  Hopefully, Sweat will help unlock Ngakoue on the other side.(and check)

[AZ54]

18 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Other than really needing to upgrade our pass rush, try this angle.  Last year we traded for Claypool because we were desperate for WR help.  Would we have done that if we weren't desperate to develop Justin?  Don't think so. 

This year we can't get a pass rush.  Poles signs Walker, Ngakoue and Billings.  Drafts Dexter and Pickens, who we know need developed.  We still can't get to the quarterback.  At this point, Poles has to evaluate his coach and he used a second round pick to do it.  With our needs, it seems huge. 

In the long run, Poles needs to decide if Flus is the guy.  Is Getsy the guy?  Is Justin the guy?  The OL is working back into shape while Justin heals, giving us time to evaluate Bagent.  If Bagent succeeds, it means Getsy succeeds. (Check)  Hopefully, Justin returns and succeeds.(Check)  Hopefully, Sweat will help unlock Ngakoue on the other side.(and check)

That's the way I see it too.  

[Stinger226]

10 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Other than really needing to upgrade our pass rush, try this angle.  Last year we traded for Claypool because we were desperate for WR help.  Would we have done that if we weren't desperate to develop Justin?  Don't think so. 

This year we can't get a pass rush.  Poles signs Walker, Ngakoue and Billings.  Drafts Dexter and Pickens, who we know need developed.  We still can't get to the quarterback.  At this point, Poles has to evaluate his coach and he used a second round pick to do it.  With our needs, it seems huge. 

In the long run, Poles needs to decide if Flus is the guy.  Is Getsy the guy?  Is Justin the guy?  The OL is working back into shape while Justin heals, giving us time to evaluate Bagent.  If Bagent succeeds, it means Getsy succeeds. (Check)  Hopefully, Justin returns and succeeds.(Check)  Hopefully, Sweat will help unlock Ngakoue on the other side.(and check)

All statements are true. If you look at the FA edge players only D. Hunter is of the same quality as Sweat .Young is available but he brings injury and attitude baggage. Then the talent takes a deep drive. In the draft only the high picks will bring you a quality prospect at edge. I think they want to use those picks for best player available, Harrison, Bowers, OT, QB plus I think they had intended on FA and as will as in the draft. This gives them flexibility. If Braxton  Jones comes back and plays well, I expect them to draft a swing T but not in the first round. If Braxton struggles then it turns to OT with a high pick. Just lots of question marks that the rest of the season with define better for us. Poles probably got the best FA edge last year in Nagakoue but we just need more to build the DL. 

The commanders didnt make Sweat available until the last minute because they werent getting a lot of value with Young. A third from SF is virtually a high 4th round pick. They would not let people talk to Sweat early to work out a deal ahead of time because they didnt intend to trade him. Tampering brings lost draft capital. Poles just took the risk but I like he is more of a gambler. Some times you win and sometimes you lose.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

All statements are true. If you look at the FA edge players only D. Hunter is of the same quality as Sweat .Young is available but he brings injury and attitude baggage. Then the talent takes a deep drive. In the draft only the high picks will bring you a quality prospect at edge. I think they want to use those picks for best player available, Harrison, Bowers, OT, QB plus I think they had intended on FA and as will as in the draft. This gives them flexibility. If Braxton  Jones comes back and plays well, I expect them to draft a swing T but not in the first round. If Braxton struggles then it turns to OT with a high pick. Just lots of question marks that the rest of the season with define better for us. Poles probably got the best FA edge last year in Nagakoue but we just need more to build the DL. 

The commanders didnt make Sweat available until the last minute because they werent getting a lot of value with Young. A third from SF is virtually a high 4th round pick. They would not let people talk to Sweat early to work out a deal ahead of time because they didnt intend to trade him. Tampering brings lost draft capital. Poles just took the risk but I like he is more of a gambler. Some times you win and sometimes you lose.

I could see the Bears signing Hunter as well. I think it would be a good use of cap space and between Hunter and Sweat that would give you two good difference makers and quality leaders on the line.  Hunter can't be franchised so unless Vikings can sign him between now and than, he is likeley to hit the market.  This allows you to use draft picks on QB, more weapons for the QB (at cost controlled) and more help on the line.  In meantime - in another year or two you can hopefully than shift some allocation and use a pick or two in your first round on Dline.  

And if Bears go with a rookie QB - that allocation at end from a financial perspective should NOT be a material concern.