2024 Draft Board

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, Pixote said:

It doesn't concern you about his performances against elite teams? I first noticed him when he played the team I follow, Notre Dame. He certainly didn't look like a generational QB in that game. In fact, if based on that game alone, I wouldn't waste a first round pick on him. Now, I am not saying he isn't a 1st round selection. But time and time again, he has underperformed in big games. That and the fact that he has been reported to say he doesn't want to play for the Bears bothers me. I was raised in lower Delaware where locals were Baltimore Colts fans. The Colts drafted Elway who refused to play for the Colts, resulting in him being traded to Denver. Caleb's statement about not wanting to play for the Bears raises bad memories for me.

 

Caleb has never said that he won't play with the Bears. In fact, he has liked numerous quotes about how dangerous he would be with DJ Moore.  I think any QB has bad games, look at Drake Maye's bad games or go back and look at some games Jayden had over the years.  I have watched a ton of Caleb on the west coast - he has had to know he needs to score 45 points to win for the past two years. His oline hasn't been good, this past year his receiver(s) weren't great, and he still was pretty spectacular.  Did his numbers take a small step back, sure.  But he played hard.

Now if the deep intel says he is a primadonna and a poor leader - I don't care what his football skills say, I'm not taking them.  Also remember - information gets put out for a reason. I guarantee Washington or another team is going to be planting all kinds of negative noise to see if any of it can create a miniscule chance that it impacts the Bears decision.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

4 minutes ago, jason said:

Noting the PFF source is worth triple highlighting. Their stats are steaming dumpster juice as we all have discussed numerous times. I didn't even want to quote reply and leave their data in there.

My eye test says the OL isn't very good and the Bears only have one quality WR on the roster.

Having said that, I honestly think the stats are deceiving for Fields. It seems like every other play one of the linemen take their turn sucking and letting a guy fly right through. So, that probably makes the Fields stats amplified towards the negative because he's never comfortable. And when they're not rotating being horrible, the pocket collapses faster that that submersible that went to visit the Titanic. (too soon?)

Do I think Fields is Peyton Manning? But I think he's a top-10 QB if the Bears ever sorted out out how to protect him, game plan to take advantage of his strengths, and have NFL-caliber talent to catch the ball. 

I think Wright & Jenkins are above average.  I think Davis is average and Jones is average / okay.  Center is awful.  Caveat being Wright is a rookie so he'll have his misse(s).  So I don't think the Bears oline is a dumpster fire. 

Moore & Kmet are both good players at their position. Mooney was a 1K receiver with 3 straight good years in Chicago (not saying he played great this year by the way).  

How do I think about the fact that the Bears back-up QB's have produced a lot less sacks. Or look at his time at OSU - the QB's book-ended around him all got sacked a heck of a lot less.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Let me put stats out there:

Bagent's sack percentage on drop-backs: 3.4%

Fields sack percentage on drop-backs: 10.6%

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Some more Caleb Williams social media data to chew on. I shared the link to this post as I can’t seem to share it directly as I used to. Good thread to read.  Of note, both Maye and Daniels also skipped their bowl games but have already declared.  MHJ declared on Thursday. Oh, and Williams doesn’t have an “NFLPA” approved agent yet which they say is “unconventional”.
 https://x.com/kalynkahler/status/1745856372707918010?s=46&t=KrpJmhSTc4DI1sACtjisOQ

[Stinger226]

3 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Let me put stats out there:

Bagent's sack percentage on drop-backs: 3.4%

Fields sack percentage on drop-backs: 10.6%

You do understand the departed OC had a different game plan with Bagent, quick throws, everything underneath. A lot of Justin's were down field that took more time to develop.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

7 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Let me put stats out there:

Bagent's sack percentage on drop-backs: 3.4%

Fields sack percentage on drop-backs: 10.6%

Bagent’s NFL starts:  4

Fields NFL starts:  32

[adam]

8 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Let me put stats out there:

Bagent's sack percentage on drop-backs: 3.4%

Fields sack percentage on drop-backs: 10.6%

2022, same Getsy offense, even in small sample sizes:

Fields sack rate: 14.7%
Siemian sack rate: 7.1%
Peterman sack rate: 3.8%

So Fields sack rate is in the 12's from 22-23, all other QBs (6+ games) is around 5.

[Pixote]

25 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Caleb has never said that he won't play with the Bears. In fact, he has liked numerous quotes about how dangerous he would be with DJ Moore.  I think any QB has bad games, look at Drake Maye's bad games or go back and look at some games Jayden had over the years.  I have watched a ton of Caleb on the west coast - he has had to know he needs to score 45 points to win for the past two years. His oline hasn't been good, this past year his receiver(s) weren't great, and he still was pretty spectacular.  Did his numbers take a small step back, sure.  But he played hard.

Now if the deep intel says he is a primadonna and a poor leader - I don't care what his football skills say, I'm not taking them.  Also remember - information gets put out for a reason. I guarantee Washington or another team is going to be planting all kinds of negative noise to see if any of it can create a miniscule chance that it impacts the Bears decision.  

I could swear that one of our members posted a quote from Caleb saying he did not want to play for Chicago. I think it was on a social media thread. Am I becoming feeble minded? Anyone remember this?

[Pixote]

I came across this in a Google search:

REPORT: Caleb Williams Shockingly Reveals NFL Team He Does Not Want To Play For

 

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

36 minutes ago, Pixote said:

I could swear that one of our members posted a quote from Caleb saying he did not want to play for Chicago. I think it was on a social media thread. Am I becoming feeble minded? Anyone remember this?

There have been numerous reports, some not so reliable and others that are.  I think he made some early commentary to the effect that he was still deciding on whether he wanted to wait to enter the draft due to who may drafting the highest.  And other comments in regard to him wanting ‘partial ownership’ of whatever team he’s drafted to. And of course people will take that and add their own spin to it where they’ll convince you that Williams said he doesn’t want to play for the Bears (see most recent scandalous post below for example. Many are saying it is pure fabrication).  It’s hard to see through all the interference sometimes but in the end it’ll count on TRUE intel and by the actions of Williams himself.   

[DABEARSDABOMB]

If this is true this will just upset me like no other.  However, I don't think any reputable reporter has reported it.  I have no idea who this Steinberg guy is? Caleb has said he was debating going pro or not.  There are also a number of tweets of him liking tweets talking about him being paired up with DJ Moore, etc, and how he'd like good in Chicago.  

Tweet(s) are tweets.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

41 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

If this is true this will just upset me like no other.  However, I don't think any reputable reporter has reported it.  I have no idea who this Steinberg guy is? Caleb has said he was debating going pro or not.  There are also a number of tweets of him liking tweets talking about him being paired up with DJ Moore, etc, and how he'd like good in Chicago.  

Tweet(s) are tweets.  

Yeah, I’m pretty convinced it’s a parody (aka trolling) type acct. Someone looked into “his” past predictions and it showed he was wrong on all of them.  

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Bagent’s NFL starts:  4

Fields NFL starts:  32

yeah but they are percentages, not raw numbers, so they scale to take into account the number of starts?

[BearFan PHX]

There are reports that Williams may wish to game the system by avoiding the NFL draft and then coming into the league in the supplemental draft, in which the order of things does not favor the Bears.

Im gonna say this, if Williams is not a Bear, Im gonna hate him for his whole career with a passion. Im not saying I want him to be a Bear, but dude, you and your painted fingernails are not bigger than the NFL.

Now take a guy like Dennis Rodman for example, who I absolutely love. He is painted, pierced and even dresses in womens clothing, and he hustled his ASS off for his team and never pulled that kind of crap.

So I dont care about the nails or whatever per se - but when they are a symptom of a personality disorder that shows the player to be selfish and entitled, then I think that guy can go to hell.

Whatever anyone could say of Rodman, no one would call him entitled. No one hustled harder than the worm. I freakin' love that guy.

Williams seems like an entitled baby, and I'd love to see him get destroyed int he NFL, assuming he is not a Bear of course.

As someone here just eloquently said "he gives me Claypool vibes"

[Alaskan Grizzly]

48 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

yeah but they are percentages, not raw numbers, so they scale to take into account the number of starts?

Theoretically, if Bagent had 8x as many NFL starts as he currently has and those were under the same conditions as Fields had it, those percentages could trend up or down.  
 

Numbers and stats are what you make of them sometimes.  

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

There have been numerous reports, some not so reliable and others that are.  I think he made some early commentary to the effect that he was still deciding on whether he wanted to wait to enter the draft due to who may drafting the highest.  And other comments in regard to him wanting ‘partial ownership’ of whatever team he’s drafted to. And of course people will take that and add their own spin to it where they’ll convince you that Williams said he doesn’t want to play for the Bears (see most recent scandalous post below for example. Many are saying it is pure fabrication).  It’s hard to see through all the interference sometimes but in the end it’ll count on TRUE intel and by the actions of Williams himself.   

This is all bullshit, unless you see a reliable source all that stuff is made up.

[Stinger226]

7 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Theoretically, if Bagent had 8x as many NFL starts as he currently has and those were under the same conditions as Fields had it, those percentages could trend up or down.  
 

Numbers and stats are what you make of them sometimes.  

Adam is always pushing stats up and literally makes good arguments on both sides of Justin. None of that matters, stats doesn't show how smart players are, how hard they work, how good of leaders they are, or how tough they are. Those are all traits that Poles looks for. Every bad QB that was drafted in the last 5 years all had good stats coming out of college. Good stats didn't work for them. 

[BearFan PHX]

3 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Theoretically, if Bagent had 8x as many NFL starts as he currently has and those were under the same conditions as Fields had it, those percentages could trend up or down.  
 

Numbers and stats are what you make of them sometimes.  

oh thats for sure, Bagents sample size is small. But i think Bagent's problem (in addition to the weaker arm?) is that while he never held on to the ball too long, or got sacked much, the flip side is that he might have made some too quick reads he shouldnt have and as a result has increased interceptions. Hes the opposite of Fields in that way.

Bagent will learnt hat with more game experience if he ever gets it, and apparently arm strength can be built in the gym - Tom Brady being an excellent example. I wonder about Bagents future. I think he has a lot more in him.

 

[TravD]

I'm in a union and in between calls this past week. I have been doing a deep dive on Caleb Williams, and he looks legit as a person and unbelievable as a QB Below is Caleb in structure in his "bad"  ND game and another video of him throwing from mostly the pocket for 7 and a half minutes. His release is ridiculous and he is so accurate even when throwing across his body on one foot. 

 

 

 

Caleb is gonna love it here
 

I don't know if that will work or not, but that's Caleb's opinion on deep dish in Chicago. (video didnt show up in thread but can click on the caleb is gonna love it here part to go to that reddit thread and see it) 

I watched this. I was surprised by what these top athletes went through. I think it was in this one where he told his dad at 10 he wanted to be the best QB. He was waking up at 430  every day and at the gym by 530, working out and then would go to school. Then after school, back to the gym training. 

[BearFan PHX]

15 hours ago, TravD said:

I'm in a union and in between calls this past week. I have been doing a deep dive on Caleb Williams, and he looks legit as a person and unbelievable as a QB Below is Caleb in structure in his "bad"  ND game and another video of him throwing from mostly the pocket for 7 and a half minutes. His release is ridiculous and he is so accurate even when throwing across his body on one foot. 

 

 

 

Caleb is gonna love it here
 

I don't know if that will work or not, but that's Caleb's opinion on deep dish in Chicago. (video didnt show up in thread but can click on the caleb is gonna love it here part to go to that reddit thread and see it) 

I watched this. I was surprised by what these top athletes went through. I think it was in this one where he told his dad at 10 he wanted to be the best QB. He was waking up at 430  every day and at the gym by 530, working out and then would go to school. Then after school, back to the gym training. 

Good stuff. There are a lot of plays there that are the kind I wish Justin would make. This is right on time, and good to see.

Caleb has until Monday to declare. This is all about to get very interesting.

[AZ54]

On 1/12/2024 at 2:14 PM, adam said:

2022, same Getsy offense, even in small sample sizes:

Fields sack rate: 14.7%
Siemian sack rate: 7.1%
Peterman sack rate: 3.8%

So Fields sack rate is in the 12's from 22-23, all other QBs (6+ games) is around 5.

...and yet nobody said give me more games with Siemian or Peterman because the offense is better.  

[jason]

On 1/12/2024 at 3:03 PM, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Let me put stats out there:

Bagent's sack percentage on drop-backs: 3.4%

Fields sack percentage on drop-backs: 10.6%

John Doe says "Hi" to 100 women and only 3.4% reject him.

Jim Doe say "Hi baby, you wanna go out?" to 100 women and 10.6% reject him.

Takes no nuts or courage to do the first thing. Doing the second thing is going for the win instead. I'd rather have the latter. The former is a recipe for John Shoop dink and dunk, teams that hover around .500, and zero excitement.

[BearFan PHX]

22 minutes ago, jason said:

John Doe says "Hi" to 100 women and only 3.4% reject him.

Jim Doe say "Hi baby, you wanna go out?" to 100 women and 10.6% reject him.

Takes no nuts or courage to do the first thing. Doing the second thing is going for the win instead. I'd rather have the latter. The former is a recipe for John Shoop dink and dunk, teams that hover around .500, and zero excitement.

Justin Fields wants to tell a pretty girl hello, but he hesitates until the moment has passed, and then either deftly runs into a bar to pick up someone else, or asks her too late after shes already married. 1 in 10 times, the girls husband beats him up too. And at least once a game, he fumbles too. I dunno what he fumbles in this metaphor - his phone? His testicles? LOL

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, jason said:

John Doe says "Hi" to 100 women and only 3.4% reject him.

Jim Doe say "Hi baby, you wanna go out?" to 100 women and 10.6% reject him.

Takes no nuts or courage to do the first thing. Doing the second thing is going for the win instead. I'd rather have the latter. The former is a recipe for John Shoop dink and dunk, teams that hover around .500, and zero excitement.

John Doe is getting laid, while Jim Doe is getting laid out, because he couldn't pull the trigger.  It's obvious and sad...

[jason]

12 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

John Doe is getting laid, while Jim Doe is getting laid out, because he couldn't pull the trigger.  It's obvious and sad...

At best, John Doe got help from his wingmen to get two fat Girl’s’ phone numbers. 

The Bears sucked during his 5-game stretch, only won two games, one of which was a squeaker versus the lowly Panthers, and Bagent averaged less than 200yds per game. 

I love the story like anyone else, but let’s not get it confused with revisionist history. Bagent sucked. But he did a few things differently than Fields, one of which is getting rid of the ball quickly. That was clearly by design to make up for Bagent’s glaring weaknesses. (Gee, imagine if they game-planned specifically for the things Fields does well.)

Comparing the two with any stat is laughable at best given how much the team had to change just so Bagent could look professional.