A Case for Keeping the Band Together...

[Mongo3451]

Halfway through the season, we are now 3-6.  It's not where most thought we'd be, while it was with others.  Sitting in year two of a massive rebuild, I can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Poles:  he's brought over 60 new faces into Halas Hall in the last two years.  He has taken us from relying on the likes of Germaine Ifedi, to having the makings of a solid offensive line.  We have yet to see them all healthy this year to date.  What other team has faced that?  The Montez Sweat trade was huge.  Great cap space and draft picks are again top of the league.  His biggest failure is with Claypool, Velus and lack of a good center.  Victories include; Sweat, Bagent, Braxton, Moore, Edwards, Edmunds, Sanborn, Stevenson, Scott, Pickens, Dexter, Brisker and Gordon.  It's looking like we'll be around 1 and 5(or 10) in the draft.  I imagine Poles pulling another monster trade and getting us the best player at the following four positions.(LT, EDGE, 3T and C)

Flus:  the team is playing hard for him.  See how fast it goes bad for a bad coach like McDaniel?  He lost his DC and RB coaches due to HR, which I still don't understand.  It makes me believe Kevin Warren has instituted an HR team that draws a hard line that has McCaskey written all over it.  The defense is playing a lot better and, like the OL, haven't seen them all together yet.

Getsy:  some say he's unimaginative, some say too cute.  What I'm seeing is a coach that is adapting and overcoming.  Bagent had four turnovers last week, essentially costing us the game.  Getsy dialed it back to protect Bagent this week and result was a first down, yardage and TOP domination.  Most importantly, no turnovers.  Getsy trusted Bagent on third down and he hit Mooney with the dagger.

Fields and Bagent:  their combined superpower is that they both can move the sticks with their arm and legs.  They compliment each other by being complete opposites with intangibles.  Both can be good enough.  Their greatest value, in staying, is what Poles can do with the draft and free agency.

Here's to Keeping the Band Together...???

[adam]

Poles is the least likely to go anywhere, as he still hasn't had "his" QB. 

Flus is definitely on the hot seat. His wins have come against Davis Mills, Trey Lance, Bailey Zappe, Brian Hoyer, Sam Howell, and now Bryce Young. He has yet to even beat a league average QB. I can't speak to the locker room, but 6-21 is still a terrible record that few HCs survive.

I think a lot will have to do with Fields. If Fields stays and they don't draft a QB, then Getsy is probably safe, maybe even Flus. However, if they draft a QB, they are going to bring in a new HC and OC to pair with them. That buys Poles a few more years.

Regardless of what happens to Fields, Bagent will probably stick around as a cheap backup now that he got some starting experience.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

23 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Here's to Keeping the Band Togethe

FWIW I share in this optimism.  I still think they need a more creatively thinking Offense mind in the room, whether that be at the OC or HC.  With the defense improving (and playing decent enough with third stringers) you have to think Flus might be the one who can be salvaged. 

[AZ54]

I still like Flus as a head coach.  He's not perfect by any means but I also accept that it takes people time to grow into their job.  Therefore I look for progress.  Where Nagy has some early success the team then peeked and sank.  Worse the locker room culture was bad.   

OTOH Flus stood by last year and toed the company line as good player after good player was traded away from him.   Flus fielded what was easily the worst roster in the NFL last year, now backed up by how many players are backups elsewhere or out of the league.   Now he's done something I'm not sure has ever been done in the NFL..... win 2 of 4 games with an undrafted QB from a D3 school.   If anyone had that on their bingo card please let me know. 

That leads into the progress because we now have a top 5 running game in the NFL.  I don't remember where we ranked last year, it was at least top 10, but most people gave that credit to Fields.  Regardless, we were still good running the ball and that was without a complimentary passing game.  We set out to fix the run defense in the offseason and now have a top 5 run D.  I say they set their goals correctly and achieved them.  I say correctly because even with Fields we still have questions at the QB position.  If you want to help a young QB develop then give them a good running game to take pressure off them.   

Did I expect us to go from the worst roster in the NFL to a playoff team in one offseason?  No.  I did expect more consistency especially from Fields but i'm not going to fault Getsy for Fields cryptic indecisions to throw to open WRs.  We've also had a lot of injuries to deal with as well in the secondary and Oline.  Backups played decently this year indicating improvement from coaching:  Borom, Carter, Jaylon Johnson, Foreman, Darrynton Evans who was poached off a practice squad, Sewell, and Patrick.   

Minus one or two key injuries I think it's reasonable for us to have won 4 games at this point.  That would be on track with most pre-season projections of 6-8 wins.  We still might get there and I need to see that progress.  If the team regresses then yes we have a coaching problem.  If the upward trend continues then I want to give them another season.  

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

So I'm reading all of this, and I have come to the conclusion that you guys would make excellent friends and neighbors. Youre optimistic, forgiving, hopeful and loyal. All excellent personal qualities.

I like to think Im the same. I regularly help my neighbors, Im a good father, I treat people with respect etc.

But when it comes to football, if you want to win, you have to be willing to do what's best for the team, even if it means moving on from people you like. People who are good, and tried their best. People who had a mix of success and failure. No one is 100% terrible. But if you want a winning team, decent isnt good enough, and I dont think Eberflus is quite decent. He's made so many mistakes and poor judgement calls.

I dont blame him for last year's record. Last year he was a caretaker of a tear down - fair enough.

But he has made so many unforced errors this season. I wont even bother to list them all here.

I like Matt Eberflus as a man. He looks like he'd be a great neighbor, teacher and role model. But he is never going to win a Super Bowl for the Chicago Bears, and that alone is enough reason to fire him. Not in anger, but just because you think someone else has a better chance to be the winner we are looking for.

[ChileBear]

16 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I like Matt Eberflus as a man. He looks like he'd be a great neighbor, teacher and role model. But he is never going to win a Super Bowl for the Chicago Bears, and that alone is enough reason to fire him. Not in anger, but just because you think someone else has a better chance to be the winner we are looking for.

I agree. Flus is a very good DC, but over his head as HC. Listening to him every week on Waddle and Silvy makes it clear he is struggling at the HC level. He has to go and we need an offense minded HC who can get competent coordinators if we are going to bring the Lomabardi trophy to Chicago.

[BearFan PHX]

14 minutes ago, ChileBear said:

I agree. Flus is a very good DC, but over his head as HC. Listening to him every week on Waddle and Silvy makes it clear he is struggling at the HC level. He has to go and we need an offense minded HC who can get competent coordinators if we are going to bring the Lomabardi trophy to Chicago.

Honestly I don't think hes that good of a DC either. I get the idea behind cover 2 defenses, and there is a time and place for it, but last night, we almost lost. If they had moved the ball 3 yards more on our zone before the field goal the game might have gone very differently.

We were facing an unsure rookie QB, and there was talk that he could be confused with hidden coverages. Aside from one fake blitz where Sandborn almost had the interception, where was the creativity?

Also I see a roster that's getting better. But does it matter whether it's Nicholas Morrow and Matthew Adams or Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards if they are always 2 steps away in zone coverage?

I think we have more talent on defense on this roster than people realize, and it's being used so predictably, and so vanilla it's not showing. How many 3rd and longs have to be converted in a row?

And we're playing safe on offense too.

This staff coaches scared. They try not to lose, they aren't trying to WIN. On occasion youll see some foolhardy show of aggressiveness, usually where it doesnt belong, like 4th and 1 in range for the go ahead field goal against the pack and instead you TE sneak. "Look how aggressive we are!" - but thats just taking a dumb chance at the wrong time. It isnt trusting your key players to do their normal jobs well.

Everything about this staff screams trying to win the game from the sidelines like a video game. Put the ball in the players' hands. Find out who is good. Ride them. It isn't rocket science.

[ChileBear]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

This staff coaches scared. They try not to lose, they aren't trying to WIN. On occasion youll see some foolhardy show of aggressiveness, usually where it doesnt belong, like 4th and 1 in range for the go ahead field goal against the pack and instead you TE sneak. "Look how aggressive we are!" - but thats just taking a dumb chance at the wrong time. It isnt trusting your key players to do their normal jobs well.

Everything about this staff screams trying to win the game from the sidelines like a video game. Put the ball in the players' hands. Find out who is good. Ride them. It isn't rocket science.

Agree on all counts. We'll never be the Monsters of the Midway with this staff.

[Stinger226]

I think it's clear every coach and every player is on notice. I admire Flus for keeping a team together while going 6-21 but he's  not looked good on many occasions. It's his first time as a HC and I think he gets a learning curve in Poles eyes. The defense has gotten better since he took over. I think that's one of reasons Poles got Sweat, so he can get a good read on Flus. Getsy has been up and down. I think the next 8 weeks will answer the coaching questions and who our QB will be. I can't expect 1 and a 1/2 years into a rebuild is every new regimes time stamp. If we go 4-3 or 5-2, I think the gang will be back. If we only win 1-2 ,  there will be new coaches and a new QB.

[Stinger226]

Thiss is the kind of draft I wpild like to see us get. I prefer McCarthy to Penix 

[Mongo3451]

Here's one I like.  The front line rebuild is complete, on both sides of the ball!

[AZ54]

Who is Justin Fields (comps)?   Preseason we all heard the comp to Jalen Hurts.  That didn't quite work out, not yet anyway.  I've been thinking the best comp might be Dak Prescott.  Dak has never really impressed me because he lacks consistency.  He's had some real head scratcher games but then he'll get it together and have some good games.  Through it all he's pretty much always had that good running game to lean on, and good pass protection.  Despite those ups and downs Dallas stuck with him long term and they continue to have success.  

Astute fans always point out stats to compare players and Dak wins there big time.  However, Dak walked into a much better situation than Justin did.  Great Oline and top running game with Elliot who was one of the best, if not the best, RB in the NFL for years.  Dallas has been able to maintain continuity in part by sticking with Dak and not burning more draft capital trying to find a QB, while also not paying top $ on a QB.  Instead they continue to add good talent with their early picks and have enough cap space to keep a good roster around him.  (Looking at their draft history that wasn't entirely true in the first few years after they drafted Dak but since then they've righted the ship.)   Dak is currently the 11th highest paid QB but that will likely change next year as he gets an extension. 

With the Bears idle this past weekend I watched Trevor Lawrence play a real stinker of a game against the 49ers.  Meanwhile Brock Purdy, coming off a 3 game losing streak, looked like a 1st Rd QB throwing to wide open players.  Josh Allen just had another bad game as well.  I saw nothing from Allen against Denver that would make me take him over Fields.  All 3 of those QBs have had better rosters in the last 1 1/2 seasons. 

We've still got more to see from Justin and hopefully he can improve the quick game at least somewhat.  Neither of the top QBs in this draft look like slam dunks to me.  Our roster is just rounding into shape.  Can that be good enough to mask Fields deficiencies while also highlighting his strengths?   Can we win with that formula long term?   We'll find out in the next 7 games.   If Fields shows there is a winning formula with him and a really good supporting cast then I'd stick with him.  How he'd value himself on a contract extension is the risky guess.  We can't pay him top 5 money.  Top 10 yes.  

  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Always bring in competition is my thing right now.  If that means your top pick or a later one, it forces the best out of you.  I want to see Fields prove it the remaining games but we have to be realistic too.  The Bears can get the number one over all and get another kings ransom that can add Detroit like talent for many more years or take a QB that will add more time to the expectations for greatness. Poles has to see this and do what's best.  The way I see it is no matter who they take, I do not see Flus as a contending SB coach like Andy Reid, maybe he can be the Dan Campbell but if it comes down to those two this year Rieds experience will be the edge.

[Stinger226]

6 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Who is Justin Fields (comps)?   Preseason we all heard the comp to Jalen Hurts.  That didn't quite work out, not yet anyway.  I've been thinking the best comp might be Dak Prescott.  Dak has never really impressed me because he lacks consistency.  He's had some real head scratcher games but then he'll get it together and have some good games.  Through it all he's pretty much always had that good running game to lean on, and good pass protection.  Despite those ups and downs Dallas stuck with him long term and they continue to have success.  

Astute fans always point out stats to compare players and Dak wins there big time.  However, Dak walked into a much better situation than Justin did.  Great Oline and top running game with Elliot who was one of the best, if not the best, RB in the NFL for years.  Dallas has been able to maintain continuity in part by sticking with Dak and not burning more draft capital trying to find a QB, while also not paying top $ on a QB.  Instead they continue to add good talent with their early picks and have enough cap space to keep a good roster around him.  (Looking at their draft history that wasn't entirely true in the first few years after they drafted Dak but since then they've righted the ship.)   Dak is currently the 11th highest paid QB but that will likely change next year as he gets an extension. 

With the Bears idle this past weekend I watched Trevor Lawrence play a real stinker of a game against the 49ers.  Meanwhile Brock Purdy, coming off a 3 game losing streak, looked like a 1st Rd QB throwing to wide open players.  Josh Allen just had another bad game as well.  I saw nothing from Allen against Denver that would make me take him over Fields.  All 3 of those QBs have had better rosters in the last 1 1/2 seasons. 

We've still got more to see from Justin and hopefully he can improve the quick game at least somewhat.  Neither of the top QBs in this draft look like slam dunks to me.  Our roster is just rounding into shape.  Can that be good enough to mask Fields deficiencies while also highlighting his strengths?   Can we win with that formula long term?   We'll find out in the next 7 games.   If Fields shows there is a winning formula with him and a really good supporting cast then I'd stick with him.  How he'd value himself on a contract extension is the risky guess.  We can't pay him top 5 money.  Top 10 yes.  

  

When talking about a QB or even a coaching staff , rarely mentioned is stability of a franchise that would bring long term success. Constantly changing everything every 2-3 years rarely has ever worked. When people  talk about Fields , they say this is his 3rd year but his first year probably did more harm than good. I look at him as in his second year. What is different in this regime is Poles had to completely changed the roster instead of rolling into a new era with a few fixes. last year Fields had to try to get better with very few weapons and a lousy OL. He was battered and still found some success. Poles has systematically improved the OL and added a key to any franchise, a great WR.  The coaching staff has struggled to try to get the best out of him by forcing a system on him instead of playing to his strengths. I think the players still play for Flus instead of quitting during this  terrible losing streak which is a plus. Flus has bungled his way thru the year but has been making the defense better since he took over. The inconsistent offense is more the blame of Getsy. they both are new to their jobs and have had some good moments to go with the bad. The next 7 games will say a lot on whether Fields should be our QB going forward and if the coaches actually get better too. What to like about Fields: probably the best running QB in the league, is accurate with deep throws when he has time to throw, he has a strong arm, a hard worker, a leader the team respects and has held up fairly well considering the beating he has taken. The next 7 games will tell the story on who stays and who goes.

[adam]

Fields contract is going to be the issue. If a new QB is comparable to Fields, you are basically buying 3 extra years on a rookie deal compared to keeping Fields and having to pay him and gut the roster. The team's construct completely changes and you have to rely on the QB more than ever before. If Fields is not the guy now, he is not going to be when he is making $40M+ a year and the Bears have to play 3 more UDFAs. Fields has to literally be a game changer on his own for it to be worth keeping him. I think he has the potential, especially when he uses his legs, but unless he goes full Lamar/Vick mode, I don't think he will ever get there.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Fields contract is going to be the issue. If a new QB is comparable to Fields, you are basically buying 3 extra years on a rookie deal compared to keeping Fields and having to pay him and gut the roster. The team's construct completely changes and you have to rely on the QB more than ever before. If Fields is not the guy now, he is not going to be when he is making $40M+ a year and the Bears have to play 3 more UDFAs. Fields has to literally be a game changer on his own for it to be worth keeping him. I think he has the potential, especially when he uses his legs, but unless he goes full Lamar/Vick mode, I don't think he will ever get there.

The future contract is the kicker. He has to ball out in the last 7 games to overcome that but i think that is in play.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

4 hours ago, adam said:

Fields contract is going to be the issue. If a new QB is comparable to Fields, you are basically buying 3 extra years on a rookie deal compared to keeping Fields and having to pay him and gut the roster. The team's construct completely changes and you have to rely on the QB more than ever before. If Fields is not the guy now, he is not going to be when he is making $40M+ a year and the Bears have to play 3 more UDFAs. Fields has to literally be a game changer on his own for it to be worth keeping him. I think he has the potential, especially when he uses his legs, but unless he goes full Lamar/Vick mode, I don't think he will ever get there.

Fields is under contract all of 2024.  If they decide to sign his option, that jumps that year to around 30 million. They should use those 2 year to get it right.  If that means they lose Brisker, Gordan or Braxton Jones because of keeping Fields the 5th year, I think it would be worth it. 

[Stinger226]

29 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Fields is under contract all of 2024.  If they decide to sign his option, that jumps that year to around 30 million. They should use those 2 year to get it right.  If that means they lose Brisker, Gordan or Braxton Jones because of keeping Fields the 5th year, I think it would be worth it. 

I guess the best way to put that is draft a QB ( not with their first pick) and give Fields this yr and next to ball out. If he fails the new QB is in the house.

[BearFan PHX]

QBs that you pick later in the draft have a MUCH MUCH lower chance of being NFL pros.

I get that everyone is seduced by all the players you could get by trading down the first pick, but I think Poles has to take a QB somewhere in the top 10 picks of the 2024 draft, depending on how they have them all graded out.

This fantasy that youre gonna get a guy in the 3rd round who will be great if Fields stumbles is just not gonna happen.

Like Ive said before, I appreciate everyone's loyalty to Fields, but he's not the guy, and the guy we need is found at the top of the first round of the draft.

now which one of the top 4 QBs is it? that's the tough question.

[Mongo3451]

35 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

now which one of the top 4 QBs is it? that's the tough question.

Hands down, Drake Maye.

[Stinger226]

You're probably right.

2018 1st round QBs:  #1 Baker Mayfield

                                    #3 Sam Darnold

                                    #7 Josh Allen

                                  #10  Josh Rosen

                                   #32 Lamar Jackson

2019 QBs                   #1 Kyler Murray

                                    #6  Daniel Jones

                                    #15 Dewayne Haskins

2020 QBs                    #1 Joe Burrow

                                     #5 Toa Tagovailoa

                                     #6 Justin Herbert

                                     #26  Jordin Love

                              Note; Jalen Hurts # 53

2021 QBs                   #1 Trevor Lawrence

                                   #2 Zach Wilson

                                    #3 Trey Lance 

                                    #11 Justin Fields

                                    #15 Mac Jones

2022 QBs                     #20 Kenny Pickett

                                Note; Sam Howell #144--- Brock Purdy #262

2023 QBs                  #1 Bryce Young

                                   #2 CJ Stroud

                                   #4 Anthony Richardson

                                   Note: Will Levis #33 ----

Out of the first QBs taken only Joe Burrow is the real deal. Murray and Lawrence still have questions. Jackson #32 , Hurst #54, Josh Allen #7,  Tagovailoa #5, and Justin Herbert #6 are the real deal.  It doesnt have to be the first pick, more have failed than succeeded. 

                                     

                                    

[BearFan PHX]

The argument that you can more likely find NFL ready QBs further down in the draft is silly on the face of it.

Dont mistake the hit or miss quality of drafting any QB with thinking that you find better ones later. It's ridiculous.

You are definitely more likely to find a stud QB in the first 10 picks than you are to find them after that.

[Stinger226]

None of this conversation matters if we dont get either of the top 2 picks . With 2 picks in the draft we can trade the first for a ransom and could still get a top pick.  I think we get a top 3 pick  and also a top 10 pick. I never said wait until the later rounds to draft a QB . There are more misses than hits at the top of the draft and Im not sure there is any generational QBs in this draft just because some football people claim that. I would actually prefer Maye to Williams . Trevor Lawrence was suppose to be great and he still doesnt look like a great QB. I would be more comfortable with MHJ and JJ McCarthy than Williams at #1. I will trust Poles to do the right thing, Im just a fan, he loses his job ifs he's wrong.

[BearFan PHX]

There are a lot of great players out there. Marvin Harrison Jr looks like the next coming of Randy Moss. Id LOVE to have him.

but WE NEED A TOP PICK QB. Its not a want, its a NEED.

If Poles can take MHJr with Carolinas pick (or trade to 2 to get him) and then pick up a QB with the second pick in the top of the first round, then fine.

But we NEED TO DRAFT A TOP FIRST ROUND PICK QB. And there is no avoiding that.

If the scouts and Poles determine that one of the QBs is head and shoulders over the rest, we need to take him first. If they rank some of them evenly, and you can still get one at #5 or something, then great.

We also need new coaches.

[Mongo3451]

Swifty is off his damn rocker sometimes.  Nobody called Mayfield, Goff and Young generational.

As far as Harrison Jr is concerned; he's a stud, but at what cost.  If drafting him makes us miss out on fixing the offensive and defensive fronts, I'm out.  My hope is that Poles makes a free agent splash to give draft relief for BPA.