QB thread

[Stinger226]

QB talk gets mentioned in almost every thread, since it wont be going away until after the draft, might as well keep it in one spot.

My take:  I want Fields to succeed, i want Bagent to be good, for me its what is our best course going forward.

Option 1) Fields balls out and we use our 2 top picks to acquire a boat load of top 100 talent. I would prefer to get MHJ somewhere in the mix. Justin has 7 games to prove himself or I will be out with him. Even if he plays well Poles may decide there is a better QB to draft, the big money he will have to pay in 2025 may already have sealed his fate.

Option 2) Draft the next great QB , the problem is which one is it? In the last 6 years only one #1 pick  turned out great Joe Burrow and because of a lousy OL, he has gotten beat up. Lawrence and Murray are still being judged but saying great isn't even a choice.  Mayfield has been serviceable and Young has a long way to go. in the last 6 years Burrow, J Allen a #6, L Jackson at #32, J Hurts at #53, Herbert at #6, T Tagovailoa at #5. Only one was the #1 pick. Its about picking the right QB and having a team developed and the right coaching. Harbaugh designed an offensive to fit Jackson,(it worked out) but the best example is Hurts. He was given an OL, some weapons and a great defense. He didnt start playing well until his second year but took off in year 3 when they traded for AJ Brown. I would say they have had good coaching since he came there. Poles needs to figure out if there is any great QBs in this draft. ( I think that's still to be determined) 

Option 3) Let Fields play out 2024 at 25 mil and draft a prospect . If Fields finally gets it , you can always trade a QB prospect for something. If he doesn't you have whoever you draft ready to take over with a year to learn being in the NFL. If Poles gets some first round picks in trades you can still draft one with 2 more 1st round picks again in 2025.

Option 4) Bagent sits and learns for another year and becomes a starter in 2025 after Fields fails. ( long shot)

Poles has to win in 2024 to keep his job. Does a rookie QB help do that ( CJ Stroud) or do you get a( Bryce Young) ? Ideally Fields balls out we go 5-2 and there will be no discussion on drafting a QB. We  draft MHJ and a Dallas Turner or JerZhan Newton and we make a run at the playoffs. (doubtful)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

j 

[BearFan PHX]

Who are the top 5 QBs in the NFL right now?

And where were they picked?

[Mongo3451]

35 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Option 3) Let Fields play out 2024 at 25 mil and draft a prospect . If Fields finally gets it , you can always trade a QB prospect for something. If he doesn't you have whoever you draft ready to take over with a year to learn being in the NFL. If Poles gets some first round picks in trades you can still draft one with 2 more 1st round picks again in 2025.

Fields makes something like 7 mil in 2024.

[Stinger226]

If you want to go by stats:  Howell( #144), Stroud (#2) Tagovailoa (# 5) Josh Allen (#7) and Jarod Goff (#1)

If you want to go by top paid: Burrow (#1)  Herbert (#6) Jackson (#32) Hurts (#53) Wilson (#75)

If you want to go by perception: Mahomes (#10) Burrow( #1) Allen (#7) Hurts ( # 53) Jackson (#32) Up for debate 

 Not sure what your point is, Burrow is the only top QB that was drafted first overall.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Imo, the foundation is GM, Coach, and then QB. With Poles and Cunningham, I feel pretty good we have that right. Coaching is yet to be determined. Why is that, young talent they are trying to develop.  That young talent includes the QBs. We need an in between version of Fields and Bagent.  Ramirez said it the best on the score this evening.  Bagent makes quick reads because he has too. He is smaller and doesn't have as great of an arm for plays to develop.  Fields can throw deep, has speed to run and size to absorb more hits, so he takes more time to let plays develop.  When Fields returns, we may see him speed up his clock knowing that has been his biggest downfall. If the Bears decide to go QB and take one of the top two, there will be another year or so of growing pains.  If they add another great WR and stud OT and C, the years of waiting could come faster. The decision will be weighed and tough to make. 

[Stinger226]

7 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Fields makes something like 7 mil in 2024.

You're  right, I was thinking about his fifth year option that would have to be picked up in 2024 that would be his 2025 salary. good catch

[Stinger226]

3 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Imo, the foundation is GM, Coach, and then QB. With Poles and Cunningham, I feel pretty good we have that right. Coaching is yet to be determined. Why is that, young talent they are trying to develop.  That young talent includes the QBs. We need an in between version of Fields and Bagent.  Ramirez said it the best on the score this evening.  Bagent makes quick reads because he has too. He is smaller and doesn't have as great of an arm for plays to develop.  Fields can throw deep, has speed to run and size to absorb more hits, so he takes more time to let plays develop.  When Fields returns, we may see him speed up his clock knowing that has been his biggest downfall. If the Bears decide to go QB and take one of the top two, there will be another year or so of growing pains.  If they add another great WR and stud OT and C, the years of waiting could come faster. The decision will be weighed and tough to make. 

Can't argue with anything you said. Talent, a good coach and then a good QB. The hard part is finding them ,its hard to do in the NFL.

[BearFan PHX]

12 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

If you want to go by stats:  Howell( #144), Stroud (#2) Tagovailoa (# 5) Josh Allen (#7) and Jarod Goff (#1)

If you want to go by top paid: Burrow (#1)  Herbert (#6) Jackson (#32) Hurts (#53) Wilson (#75)

If you want to go by perception: Mahomes (#10) Burrow( #1) Allen (#7) Hurts ( # 53) Jackson (#32) Up for debate 

 Not sure what your point is, Burrow is the only top QB that was drafted first overall.

the point isnt about the first pick vs the second pick, its about the top of the first round vs the rest.

And it's about the percentage of excellence found in the top half of the first round, vs the bottom half vs the rest of the draft.

It may only be 50/50 in the first 10 picks, but its MUCH worse than that after that.

If you're gonna take a QB to ride with as a hopeful franchise player, you evaluate the top options. Teams have different grades, so one team may see their most highly rated player be the third guy taken at that position - but it'll still be high in the draft.

So yeah, if our staff thinks its Penix or JJ McCarthy, as the best option, or as a tied option with the others, then taking him at pick #5 is GREAT. But youre not gonna get anyone in the 2nd or 3rd round. not reliably, not statistically. And certainly not the top (or tied for top) QB in that draft by your own measure.

For example the Patriots didnt have Brady highly ranked either. So they got lucky, but they didnt strategize that. But if we have them all grouped similarly, then its ok to let them drop a bit.

Another example: I cant understnad how the Bears had Trubisky far and away above Mahomes. I would think they were closely ranked to eachother. Maybe you have Trubisky by an edge because of the perceived weaknesses of Mahomes at the time. But if theyre at all close in your rankings, dont trade UP to get one. You fall back and let luck decide.

Now if you have Trubisky WAY over Mahomes, then you do what you have to to get him, and they did. And the coin flip came up tails.

So trading down for a QB isnt a bad thing at all if you have them in a closely ranked group. But you can only fall far enough to get the last guy in your top group, and that will be way before the 2nd round?

[Stinger226]

I'm not disagreeing with you , you have a better shot in the top 10 at being good but also lots of failure when you pick there and they are bad. Those moves get you fired. Just for reference, the top QBs get paid the big money. Out of the top 5 , here is a pick 32-53-75. There is arguments for any kind of point someone is making. Then you have people like Prudy, Howell, and Dobbs playing well that isn't even in the conversation. It could end up being Bagent in 2024 bring the surprise. There is no easy answer. I will just trust Poles to make the right decision while we throw our opinions out there.

[BearFan PHX]

19 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I'm not disagreeing with you , you have a better shot in the top 10 at being good but also lots of failure when you pick there and they are bad. Those moves get you fired. Just for reference, the top QBs get paid the big money. Out of the top 5 , here is a pick 32-53-75. There is arguments for any kind of point someone is making. Then you have people like Prudy, Howell, and Dobbs playing well that isn't even in the conversation. It could end up being Bagent in 2024 bring the surprise. There is no easy answer. I will just trust Poles to make the right decision while we throw our opinions out there.

the odds go waaaaay down after the top first round picks though. Youre pointing at some that have succeeded, but youre not factoring in all the ones that didnt.

in the end, you gotta do your work and decide who you think the best QB is, and whether there are any others tied with them or not. And then you gotta pick on from that group, and none of them will be around in the 2nd round. If they are, you gotta fire your scouts.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

8 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I'm not disagreeing with you , you have a better shot in the top 10 at being good but also lots of failure when you pick there and they are bad. Those moves get you fired. Just for reference, the top QBs get paid the big money. Out of the top 5 , here is a pick 32-53-75. There is arguments for any kind of point someone is making. Then you have people like Prudy, Howell, and Dobbs playing well that isn't even in the conversation. It could end up being Bagent in 2024 bring the surprise. There is no easy answer. I will just trust Poles to make the right decision while we throw our opinions out there.

When you draft high, it's because your organization is bad. More QBs fail because of it. Mahomes went into the perfect situation. They were a QB away from becoming a contender. The Bears are building to become that, but still a year or two out.  If Fields and the squad finish strong, I will say they have their young talent performing and maybe the coaching is sufficient for now.  I think the Bears are in a tough spot and decisions will be career making or breaking

[BearFan PHX]

2 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

When you draft high, it's because your organization is bad. More QBs fail because of it. Mahomes went into the perfect situation. They were a QB away from becoming a contender. The Bears are building to become that, but still a year or two out.

That's a very good observation. Maybe why the Ryan Leaf's of the world flamed out.
 

3 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I think the Bears are in a tough spot and decisions will be career making or breaking

for sure

[adam]

After what Stroud has done in HOU, Fields is going to have to at least look comparable to him, coming from the same system in college (with some of the same WRs), for the remaining games. Anything less than what Stroud has done to this point, and they are going to move on from Fields. At this point, Williams feels too close to Fields in terms of what his strengths and weaknesses are. I think Poles will go with someone like Maye and trade Fields for a 2nd or a 3rd.

Poles didn't think Stroud was good enough to replace Fields, and instead got DJ Moore, Wright, and potentially the #1 pick in 2024 for what could've been CJ Stroud. How would Stroud have looked on a Bears team w/o DJ Moore, Borom playing RT? I doubt he looks much different than Fields. So does Poles do that again? Add a 2025 1st rounder, and potentially another blue chip player comparable to Moore to move down 8-9 slots in the 1st round. Then he can draft 2 top 10 players while adding that blue chipper, while already adding Sweat. So from the 2023 opening day roster, he could add 4x blue chippers (2x draft picks, Sweat, traded vet) to go with (Wright, Moore) the year before. Then in 2025 he has 2x 1st rounders (AGAIN), and 2x 2nd rounders (potentially more). That could be 4 more blue chippers to go with the 6 other acquired ones, not counting any existing players already on the roster (Fields, Jenkins, Jones, Kmet, Herbert, J. Johnson, Gordon, Brisker, Edwards, Edmunds, Stevenson, Billings, Dexter, Sanborn).

[adam]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Who are the top 5 QBs in the NFL right now?

And where were they picked?

QBR - Purdy, Mahomes, Prescott, Allen, Herbert -  3x 1st rounders, 4th round, 7th round

DVOA - Purdy, Stroud, Goff, Tua, Allen - 4x 1st rounders, 7th round

[BearFan PHX]

37 minutes ago, adam said:

After what Stroud has done in HOU, Fields is going to have to at least look comparable to him, coming from the same system in college (with some of the same WRs), for the remaining games. Anything less than what Stroud has done to this point, and they are going to move on from Fields. At this point, Williams feels too close to Fields in terms of what his strengths and weaknesses are. I think Poles will go with someone like Maye and trade Fields for a 2nd or a 3rd.

this is where Im at too. Maye, Penix or McCarthy, possibly after a mini trade down.

Sure would like MHJ too...

[BearFan PHX]

30 minutes ago, adam said:

QBR - Purdy, Mahomes, Prescott, Allen, Herbert -  3x 1st rounders, 4th round, 7th round

DVOA - Purdy, Stroud, Goff, Tua, Allen - 4x 1st rounders, 7th round

exactly

[DABEARSDABOMB]

44 minutes ago, adam said:

After what Stroud has done in HOU, Fields is going to have to at least look comparable to him, coming from the same system in college (with some of the same WRs), for the remaining games. Anything less than what Stroud has done to this point, and they are going to move on from Fields. At this point, Williams feels too close to Fields in terms of what his strengths and weaknesses are. I think Poles will go with someone like Maye and trade Fields for a 2nd or a 3rd.

Poles didn't think Stroud was good enough to replace Fields, and instead got DJ Moore, Wright, and potentially the #1 pick in 2024 for what could've been CJ Stroud. How would Stroud have looked on a Bears team w/o DJ Moore, Borom playing RT? I doubt he looks much different than Fields. So does Poles do that again? Add a 2025 1st rounder, and potentially another blue chip player comparable to Moore to move down 8-9 slots in the 1st round. Then he can draft 2 top 10 players while adding that blue chipper, while already adding Sweat. So from the 2023 opening day roster, he could add 4x blue chippers (2x draft picks, Sweat, traded vet) to go with (Wright, Moore) the year before. Then in 2025 he has 2x 1st rounders (AGAIN), and 2x 2nd rounders (potentially more). That could be 4 more blue chippers to go with the 6 other acquired ones, not counting any existing players already on the roster (Fields, Jenkins, Jones, Kmet, Herbert, J. Johnson, Gordon, Brisker, Edwards, Edmunds, Stevenson, Billings, Dexter, Sanborn).

That is the thing. The bears don’t have to mortgage the future to take a qb high (*fingers crossed panthers end up with top 2 pick*). They also would be pairing that qb with Moore and Kmet plus a quality running game and what looks like at least a few good oline men (Wright / Jenkins / Davis). Jones I will leave jury out on. 
 

Add into fact defense has some pieces and is young plus 100M in cap space and what will be likely another top 10 pick and this team has assets. I do go back to if I take a qb with one of the picks, I am probably trading back with the other one plus getting something for Fields (let’s say a 2nd). 
 

Bring in a legit coach like Harbaugh or if you like Day go pay for him or get Ben Johnson and that is not a total shit situation like you would normally see a #1 overall pick go into. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

39 minutes ago, adam said:

After what Stroud has done in HOU, Fields is going to have to at least look comparable to him, coming from the same system in college (with some of the same WRs), for the remaining games. Anything less than what Stroud has done to this point, and they are going to move on from Fields. At this point, Williams feels too close to Fields in terms of what his strengths and weaknesses are. I think Poles will go with someone like Maye and trade Fields for a 2nd or a 3rd.

Poles didn't think Stroud was good enough to replace Fields, and instead got DJ Moore, Wright, and potentially the #1 pick in 2024 for what could've been CJ Stroud. How would Stroud have looked on a Bears team w/o DJ Moore, Borom playing RT? I doubt he looks much different than Fields. So does Poles do that again? Add a 2025 1st rounder, and potentially another blue chip player comparable to Moore to move down 8-9 slots in the 1st round. Then he can draft 2 top 10 players while adding that blue chipper, while already adding Sweat. So from the 2023 opening day roster, he could add 4x blue chippers (2x draft picks, Sweat, traded vet) to go with (Wright, Moore) the year before. Then in 2025 he has 2x 1st rounders (AGAIN), and 2x 2nd rounders (potentially more). That could be 4 more blue chippers to go with the 6 other acquired ones, not counting any existing players already on the roster (Fields, Jenkins, Jones, Kmet, Herbert, J. Johnson, Gordon, Brisker, Edwards, Edmunds, Stevenson, Billings, Dexter, Sanborn).

Just some thoughts on NFL QBs

Who would have known Stroud would excel and Young struggle.  Is it the OC? Stroud has a young OC from San Fran who's been a passing coordinator Carolina has a young OC too, a former RB.  

As for this years top choices that have put up similiar stats.  Caleb Williams height scares me, but Tua, Purdy, and Hurts are all 6-1.  Russell Wilson 5-11,  Kyler and Bryce Young at 5-10. 

Drake Maye has size at 6-4, but comes from NC which will frighten many Bear fans.  Howell is playing well and also a recent NC alumni. Other QBs at the 6-4 range Trvor Lawrence and Justin Herbert at 6-6, Josh Allen and Daniel Jones at 6-5, Joe Burrow, Anthiny Richardson, and Jordan Love 6-4, 

 

 

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I think Poles will go with someone like Maye and trade Fields for a 2nd or a 3rd.

Someone please explain to me why Maye is such a hot commodity.  

[BearFan PHX]

23 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Someone please explain to me why Maye is such a hot commodity.  

prototypical size 6' 5", extremely strong arm, fast decisions, ball comes out quick, pocket passer, has increased his level of play every week this year and is undefeated this year - making a run at college playoffs.

That's what they say anyway.

[Mongo3451]

25 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Someone please explain to me why Maye is such a hot commodity.  

He has prototypical size and amazing athletic traits.  Quick release, mobile, cannon arm, accurate deep ball, known clutch performer, plays in a pro offense and succeeds with lesser talent around him.  Another plus, is that he comes from a well rounded athletic family.(other D 1 athlete)  I encourage you to read the latest Athletic scouting article on him as well.  Mack Jones is not the same coach that Trubisky had, so similarities should end there.  The system that he plays in is one of the few that asks the QB to read both safeties on every given play.  This is important in that it gives a better assessment of his pro abilities...

[jason]

27 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Someone please explain to me why Maye is such a hot commodity.  

Because he smells like Mitch Trubisky.

[Stinger226]

23 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

That is the thing. The bears don’t have to mortgage the future to take a qb high (*fingers crossed panthers end up with top 2 pick*). They also would be pairing that qb with Moore and Kmet plus a quality running game and what looks like at least a few good oline men (Wright / Jenkins / Davis). Jones I will leave jury out on. 
 

Add into fact defense has some pieces and is young plus 100M in cap space and what will be likely another top 10 pick and this team has assets. I do go back to if I take a qb with one of the picks, I am probably trading back with the other one plus getting something for Fields (let’s say a 2nd). 
 

Bring in a legit coach like Harbaugh or if you like Day go pay for him or get Ben Johnson and that is not a total shit situation like you would normally see a #1 overall pick go into. 

To be honest, IDC who the QB is as long as Poles makes the right choice. If its Fields better for drafting blue chip players instead of drafting a QB high, If he balls out ,Fields would bring better draft capital in a trade if Poles wants to draft one. We should all want him to be good , writing him off with 7 games left is premature. Poles may pull a rabbit out of his hat and draft Jayden Daniels/LSU. When Lamar Jackson gets picked at 32, J Hurts at 53, its not a perfect science. Penix, Nik, McCarthy, no one knows for sure but I do know if the defense is good, and we have MHJ, DJ and Kmet, an OL , its more likely  a QB will shine. If the defense keeps getting better , i wouldnt care if Flus stays as long as a OC can put together a good offense, hell it still could be Getsy but I doubt it.

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, jason said:

Because he smells like Mitch Trubisky.

how do you know? LOL

He didnt play in the same system as Mitch, has twice as many games and is a different kind of QB.

Now I havent watched Maybe enough to endorse him. So if you have some substantive criticisms, Im all ears, and wont even disagree with you. Ill take those and think of them when I start watching film on these guys.

But just that he went to NC? Didn't Michael Jordan go there too? LOL that doesnt mean anything either of course.

[jason]

The best strategy to the original post is obviously strategy #1.

• Trade out of 1 or both of the 1st round picks for a king's ransom.
• Build the roster
• Heavy focus on offense
• Cut the fat
• Take the reigns off Fields in 2024
• Bring in an OC who understands how to create a successful passing offense