QB thread

[Alaskan Grizzly]

6 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

If you keep JF this year, you're gonna pick up his 5th year option in May, and then you cant cut him, so theres no "wait and see how he does" at that point youre committed for 2 years and $30 Million on the salary cap. Signing him to a long term deal will prevent signing the rookie class that has Gordon and Brisker to long term deals.

If you keep him for the fifth year and pay it’ll be just north of $23 million for that year ($32 million if he makes the Pro Bowl).  The first figure puts him about 19th-20th in QB salary (between Love and Jimmy G).  And about 16th for option 2.  
 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/2023/quarterback/average/

Because I’m not smart about contract stuff, why would they have to commit to 2 years and a hit of $30 milllion if they stick with him for year five?  

[BearFan PHX]

8 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

If you keep him for the fifth year and pay it’ll be just north of $23 million for that year ($32 million if he makes the Pro Bowl).  The first figure puts him about 19th-20th in QB salary (between Love and Jimmy G).  And about 16th for option 2.  
 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/2023/quarterback/average/

Because I’m not smart about contract stuff, why would they have to commit to 2 years and a hit of $30 milllion if they stick with him for year five?  

Well, if you dont pick up his 5th year option, then Fields is a likely holdout this year? Its hard to tell a QB that you have confidence in them if you havent picked up their option? And even if he didnt hold out, Fields would then know he was a free agent at the end of next year, and there'd be no reason to think that he would choose us over a higher bidder. Someone is always willing to overpay.

The option for year 5, the 2025 season would be $25 Million, and theres the $7 or whatever you pay him this year.

And you dont pick up the option if you intend to cut him or lose him, so you pick up the option because you think he's the guy, and give him an extension somewhere in year 5. And if you do that, your cap is screwed. This is true for any team with a top paid QB.

You wouldnt pay him $25 Mil just to cut him a year later, and if that was your plan, thered be no reason to think youd have the draft capital then to land a top pick.

Basically, the decision point about whether you want to roll with Justin long term into a big second deal is May of 2024.

[Stinger226]

25 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

If you keep him for the fifth year and pay it’ll be just north of $23 million for that year ($32 million if he makes the Pro Bowl).  The first figure puts him about 19th-20th in QB salary (between Love and Jimmy G).  And about 16th for option 2.  
 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/2023/quarterback/average/

Because I’m not smart about contract stuff, why would they have to commit to 2 years and a hit of $30 milllion if they stick with him for year five?  

You can pickup his option and then if year 4 . a QB you drafted is doing well  , you could trade him with the option money. Or after the 5th year you could tag him which would only be a 1 yr of a big payment. So you effectively have him for 3 yrs . Draft a QB prospect and you have 3 yrs to develop and still get any upside of Justin w/o making a big commitment. 

The great Pat Mahomes sat for a yr. Hurts barely played his first year. Herbert or Fields were not suppose to play their first yr but injuries changed that. Rodgers sat for several yrs but money has changed that now.  

So keep him, draft who ever you want, Fields will do well to get a big contract and you burn the candles at both ends. We can win in 2024, if you decide to pay Fields you still can. Trade the new drafted QB. 

Another possibility is look for a QB in 2025 to draft, when you trade pick one, you can fall into the same scenario like with Carolina. Chances are that team will have a top 5 pick in 2025. There is no urgency for a QB while Fields is still progressing and you can do it all over again in 2025.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

22 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Another possibility is look for a QB in 2025 to draft, when you trade pick one, you can fall into the same scenario like with Carolina. Chances are that team will have a top 5 pick in 2025. There is no urgency for a QB while Fields is still progressing and you can do it all over again in 2025.

Trade NE, who reportedly will part ways with Belichick or ARZ.  Those two will be at the bottom, imo, next year.  Get a future 1st and a 2nd this year to move down and get MHJ, Alt, or a QB.  I don't want to see a team on the verge to contend in the playoffs to step back. I want to see them use their draft assets to continue adding future high picks. 

[Stinger226]

 

[BearFan PHX]

the 5th year option is a guaranteed money, so if you trade or cut Fields, you still owe the $25 Mil against our cap. It doesn't go with Fields to the team that trades for him.

This whole thing is structured so that the player and team have to decide if they want a long term deal or not this offseason. That's why its structured like this in the first place.

The evaluation year was this year, not next year. Now you have to decide JF is the man and youre on a track to pay him $45Mil a year in 2 years or not.

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

 

The only QB in the NFL that doesn't make that throw is Trubisky.

[Stinger226]

31 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

the 5th year option is a guaranteed money, so if you trade or cut Fields, you still owe the $25 Mil against our cap. It doesn't go with Fields to the team that trades for him.

This whole thing is structured so that the player and team have to decide if they want a long term deal or not this offseason. That's why its structured like this in the first place.

The evaluation year was this year, not next year. Now you have to decide JF is the man and youre on a track to pay him $45Mil a year in 2 years or not.

I didnt know that, i guess you just dont trade him or cut him for 2025.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I didnt know that, i guess you just dont trade him or cut him for 2025.

so you're ready to bet hes the man, bet away the top draft pick, and put $25 Mil on the books for 2025 when you need to sign Brisker and Gordon etc?

That is one of the moves you can make.

Waiting to see until next years offseason and then having it not work out is MUCH MUCH worse than taking a rookie this year and having that not work out.

Remember, you dont get to make the decision at the end of 2025 - by then hes a free agent and can go anywhere. You have to make the long term decision by August 2025. But will we have the draft opportunity we have now?

It's a hell of a bet without knowing. I think you think you get more time to wait and see than you do.

To me, it's reckless. Too big a bet on too little data.

The thing is, the bar is SO low in Chicago. We are the ONLY NFL team that has never had a 4,000 yard passer.

I can see why Fields looks so good to you, comparatively.

But it is a foolish bet to make at this point. The downside is huge, and the risk the other way is a LOT less. And all on what? Some flashes?

Rolling with FIelds is a mistake - because of the cap and draft implications.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

so you're ready to bet hes the man, bet away the top draft pick, and put $25 Mil on the books for 2025 when you need to sign Brisker and Gordon etc?

That is one of the moves you can make.

Waiting to see until next years offseason and then having it not work out is MUCH MUCH worse than taking a rookie this year and having that not work out.

Remember, you dont get to make the decision at the end of 2025 - by then hes a free agent and can go anywhere. You have to make the long term decision by August 2025. But will we have the draft opportunity we have now?

It's a hell of a bet without knowing. I think you think you get more time to wait and see than you do.

To me, it's reckless. Too big a bet on too little data.

The thing is, the bar is SO low in Chicago. We are the ONLY NFL team that has never had a 4,000 yard passer.

I can see why Fields looks so good to you, comparatively.

But it is a foolish bet to make at this point. The downside is huge, and the risk the other way is a LOT less. And all on what? Some flashes?

Rolling with FIelds is a mistake - because of the cap and draft implications.

There is risk in any move you make, I think team building will add to whoever the QB is going forward. Poles will determine if a QB is worth taking, I keep going back to keep Fields and draft a QB, not in the first round. I'm not taking the risk that Williams is a bust or  Field's blossoms, I'm allowing for both options. What ever move he makes, another option will be a QB in 2025. Banking in a trade that's gets us another first rounder with pick one.

If Poles decides to take a QB and trade Fields, im behind that but at this point in time, nothing is clearly one or the other. Poles is building a team to compete now, not wait a couple of years to develop a rookie QB. Does he draft Young or Stroud? That's the real question, who is it?

I think he will hedge his bet and keep Fields and draft a prospect not in the first round. That is the least risky move. Draft MHJ and Latu then Penix or Nix with the early 2 nd round pick. Or who he decides to grab. 

4 games yet to play will add more insight in to that decision. If we win 3 or 4, this conversation probably will be a lot clearer to Poles.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

There is risk in any move you make, I think team building will add to whoever the QB is going forward. Poles will determine if a QB is worth taking, I keep going back to keep Fields and draft a QB, not in the first round. I'm not taking the risk that Williams is a bust or  Field's blossoms, I'm allowing for both options. What ever move he makes, another option will be a QB in 2025. Banking in a trade that's gets us another first rounder with pick one.

If Poles decides to take a QB and trade Fields, im behind that but at this point in time, nothing is clearly one or the other. Poles is building a team to compete now, not wait a couple of years to develop a rookie QB. Does he draft Young or Stroud? That's the real question, who is it?

I think he will hedge his bet and keep Fields and draft a prospect not in the first round. That is the least risky move. Draft MHJ and Latu then Penix or Nix with the early 2 nd round pick. Or who he decides to grab. 

4 games yet to play will add more insight in to that decision. If we win 3 or 4, this conversation probably will be a lot clearer to Poles.

If Poles doesnt already know what he is going to do, they should fire him immediately.

Im not trying to be personal, but this is just terribly naive thinking.

Also, no. 2025 will be $25 Million guaranteed to Fields. 2026 would be your rookie QB. of course then why did you spend a year paying Fields if youre just gonna dump him?

It makes NO sense, youre mixing plans together without understanding the choice Poles has to make by May.

Go all the way with Fields, or lose him and go with the rookie. There is no middle way.

[Daventry]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

If Poles doesnt already know what he is going to do, they should fire him immediately.

Im not trying to be personal, but this is just terribly naive thinking.

Also, no. 2025 will be $25 Million guaranteed to Fields. 2026 would be your rookie QB. of course then why did you spend a year paying Fields if youre just gonna dump him?

It makes NO sense, youre mixing plans together without understanding the choice Poles has to make by May.

Go all the way with Fields, or lose him and go with the rookie. There is no middle way.

Unfortunately, this does seem to me the bottom line due to the salary cap issues so well described.  I guess we could shut our eyes, take our favourite intoxicant, and convince ourselves that we are so sure that the most recent version of Fields will become a reliable superstar.  I fear we will wake up from that strategy right back where we started.  I do trust Poles, and I agree that he very likely knows exactly what he will be doing this offseason.

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

If Poles doesnt already know what he is going to do, they should fire him immediately.

Im not trying to be personal, but this is just terribly naive thinking.

Also, no. 2025 will be $25 Million guaranteed to Fields. 2026 would be your rookie QB. of course then why did you spend a year paying Fields if youre just gonna dump him?

It makes NO sense, youre mixing plans together without understanding the choice Poles has to make by May.

Go all the way with Fields, or lose him and go with the rookie. There is no middle way.

See you can play nice, (terrible naive thinking) is much better than, ignorant, moron, brain dead or whatever other words you used. He probably does know what he's going to do but for some reason, you think he totally has your opinion. I am throwing out the other options that you completely dismiss. 

You can bring back Justin without declaring ( top 5 SB QB). You can go into 2024 with the thought you are going to draft a QB and not get the guy you wanted and then pick up his option without thinking (top 5 SB QB). You can think that we can win with Justin not being a great QB, great D, good running game, upgrading the roster ( MHJ or Bowers, Turner or Latu). We seem to be doing that now.

IF, a big IF, we win out and make the playoffs that will affect on Poles views the future. For some reason you keep putting words in my mouth. No where have I ever said Fields is a top 5 SB QB. I have said on many occasions that if Poles decides Williams is the guy, I have no problem with that but I will let him decide that not you. They can go forward with Poles picking up the option  and still draft a QB in the 2025 draft. 25 mil is not a CAP KILLER. 

You have been right all along that Fields play, this year hasnt settled anything, but assuming any drafted QB option is a better choice than having Justin back is terrible naive thinking. My opinion all along has been bring back Fields and draft a QB to develop not in the first round and let him develop. There are several options and I never said your view is not a sound option, I just disagree that it is the only option. 

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

See you can play nice, (terrible naive thinking) is much better than, ignorant, moron, brain dead or whatever other words you used.

Ugh, dude, dont go down that road again please. I dont need you telling me "see you can play nice" like Im a child and youre the teacher. THAT isnt playing nice. That is condescending. Stop it.
 

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

He probably does know what he's going to do but for some reason, you think he totally has your opinion. I am throwing out the other options that you completely dismiss.

No. I never said that. I have said that there are two legitimate options ahead of Poles.

1) Justin is the man, pay him

2) Justin has not proven he is the man, so you cant pay him without taking a huge risk

I am in camp #2, but I dont know what Poles will do. choice #1 makes no sense to me, but I keep saying it IS a coherent option.

What isnt coherent is trying to blend these two options into a "wait and see if Fields develops next year" because you have to make the decision by May on the 5th year option.

This is part of our problem - you dont understand what I say, put words in my mouth and then get offended by them.

 

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

They can go forward with Poles picking up the option  and still draft a QB in the 2025 draft. 25 mil is not a CAP KILLER.

no but then youve wasted this opportunity to have the #1 pick. If you "wait and see" and draft a QB in 2025 while paying Fields $25 Mil, then you have to package multiple years' first round picks to move up, and you pay Fields $25 Mil and then he LEAVES, no matter how good he is because you didnt extend him.

That's why you need to decide now. $25 isnt a cap killer, its just a waste of a two years for no reason and then then lets say you like him after 2025, well its TOO LATE to keep him because hes a free agent.

I laid all these scenarios out in the previous posts. I dont think you actually read them, or if you do you dont understand them, because you dont mention them at all when you rebut?

Poles really cant punt this decision, he has to make it one way or the other.

You are entitled to your opinion on which way he should go, but you cant pretend that he doesnt need to make a decision.

[Stinger226]

4 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

no but then youve wasted this opportunity to have the #1 pick. If you "wait and see" and draft a QB in 2025 while paying Fields $25 Mil, then you have to package multiple years' first round picks to move up, and you pay Fields $25 Mil and then he LEAVES, no matter how good he is because you didnt extend him.

That's why you need to decide now. $25 isnt a cap killer, its just a waste of a two years for no reason and then then lets say you like him after 2025, well its TOO LATE to keep him because hes a free agent.

I laid all these scenarios out in the previous posts. I dont think you actually read them, or if you do you dont understand them, because you dont mention them at all when you rebut?

Poles really cant punt this decision, he has to make it one way or the other.

You are entitled to your opinion on which way he should go, but you cant pretend that he doesnt need to make a decision.

What I do think is that you think you're right and no other opinion means anything. If we win out, make the playoffs and Fields balls out , you will  still have your opinion and that's ok.. I totally get what you're saying, I dont agree with it, OBVIOUSLY. This is not a contest, Poles may very well take Williams and the history of the Bears may win 2 SBs , ect. You just cant dismiss other options because you disagree. 
Everyone on here  understands your points, not just me but other people disagree  with you also. Its not me against you, its just opinions.

[Stinger226]

21 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Ugh, dude, dont go down that road again please. I dont need you telling me "see you can play nice" like Im a child and youre the teacher. THAT isnt playing nice. That is condescending. Stop it.
 

No. I never said that. I have said that there are two legitimate options ahead of Poles.

1) Justin is the man, pay him

2) Justin has not proven he is the man, so you cant pay him without taking a huge risk

I am in camp #2, but I dont know what Poles will do. choice #1 makes no sense to me, but I keep saying it IS a coherent option.

What isnt coherent is trying to blend these two options into a "wait and see if Fields develops next year" because you have to make the decision by May on the 5th year option.

This is part of our problem - you dont understand what I say, put words in my mouth and then get offended by them.

 

Im not going down any road I just stated you can call me a moron whle using nice words and I'm not blowing up. Not sure why that triggers you, you choose to address my opinion in a negative way. I'm saying that is the proper way to do. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, Stinger226 said:

What I do think is that you think you're right and no other opinion means anything.

and here we go again you assh*le. Youre all butthurt because you literally dont UNDERSTAND what Im saying.

you dont know how to read. you really dont. or youre doing it on purpose.

You CAN say you believe in Fields and want to keep him ***OR*** you can say that you want to move on from him, Those are BOTH opinions and you are WELCOME to either of them. You can disagree with me all day long. FINE.

What you cant say is "teams find a way to figure out the cap" without saying what that would be. That's just magical thinking. you cant have your cake and eat it too. You cant say you want to wait and see on Fields, NOT pay him, but then keep him like you DID pay him.

That's not an opinion. It's just nonsense.

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, Stinger226 said:

Im not going down any road I just stated you can call me a moron whle using nice words and I'm not blowing up. Not sure why that triggers you, you choose to address my opinion in a negative way. I'm saying that is the proper way to do. 

no I didnt. I said the IDEA didnt make sense.

Youre this really weird combination of bully wanna be and victim.

If youre gonna cry every time someone disagrees with you when you say something that doesnt make coherent sense, then as Ive asked, JUST STOP RESPONDING TO ME IF YOU CANT HANDLE IT.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

As long as Bears have top 2 pick - they need to take the qb. No way I can give Fields 5th year option and lock next 3 years on him…not if they have a top 2 pick. 

[adam]

3 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

As long as Bears have top 2 pick - they need to take the qb. No way I can give Fields 5th year option and lock next 3 years on him…not if they have a top 2 pick. 

Nope, he is not a difference maker. Cleveland could care less about him running and that is his only threat. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 minute ago, adam said:

Nope, he is not a difference maker. Cleveland could care less about him running and that is his only threat. 

That is exactly it. He is an ok qb and maybe he can become good - but I have a shot at a great and cost controlled and don’t have to give up something to get it. It is a no brainer at this point. 
 

Could be this loss - which right now hurts bad - saves the Bears from making  a big mistake 

[adam]

15 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

That is exactly it. He is an ok qb and maybe he can become good - but I have a shot at a great and cost controlled and don’t have to give up something to get it. It is a no brainer at this point. 
 

Could be this loss - which right now hurts bad - saves the Bears from making  a big mistake 

Yeah this loss was the defining moment for Flus, Getsy, and Fields. 

[BearFan PHX]

8 minutes ago, adam said:

Yeah this loss was the defining moment for Flus, Getsy, and Fields. 

Well it was the moment that hope turned into dust. I think the answer has really been defined already weeks ago, but it wasnt mathematically over yet. This ended it for sure. So from that point of view this was it, but i think from a dispassionate non-fan point of view, any GM should have already known this?

Either way, after this youre right, we are clearly over that threshold now.

[adam]

8 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Well it was the moment that hope turned into dust. I think the answer has really been defined already weeks ago, but it wasnt mathematically over yet. This ended it for sure. So from that point of view this was it, but i think from a dispassionate non-fan point of view, any GM should have already known this?

Either way, after this youre right, we are clearly over that threshold now.

Yep, if they were on the fence like a lot of fans have been, the answer is clear that you have to clean house from HC to QB.