QB thread

[Stinger226]

32 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Someone please explain to me why Maye is such a hot commodity.  

Probably because some experts say he is the best pure pocket QB in the draft. North Carolina career   580/878//7555  69.3  60 TDs-13 Ints   157.9 QB rating in 28 games

[Stinger226]

10 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

how do you know? LOL

He didnt play in the same system as Mitch, has twice as many games and is a different kind of QB.

Now I havent watched Maybe enough to endorse him. So if you have some substantive criticisms, Im all ears, and wont even disagree with you. Ill take those and think of them when I start watching film on these guys.

But just that he went to NC? Didn't Michael Jordan go there too? LOL that doesnt mean anything either of course.

If we keep Getsy Maye fits the scheme better than Williams. Otherwise let the new OC figure in the pick. If we use the same logic as , Mitch went to NC, then that would mean Stroud should not be good because he went to OSU.

[jason]

1 minute ago, BearFan PHX said:

how do you know? LOL

He didnt play in the same system as Mitch, has twice as many games and is a different kind of QB.

Now I havent watched Maybe enough to endorse him. So if you have some substantive criticisms, Im all ears, and wont even disagree with you. Ill take those and think of them when I start watching film on these guys.

But just that he went to NC? Didn't Michael Jordan go there too? LOL that's doesnt mean anything either of course.

1. Yes, he goes to UNC where Trubisky went.
2. He plays against weak ACC competition.
3. He looks almost exactly like Grayson Allen.
4. He has too many WTF games
5. Throws off his back foot a lot
6. Wild ad-libbing footwork

Mostly though, you're right, it's #1-2 for me. I'm not a fan of drafting dudes from non-powerhouse schools when they rack up stats against subpar competition.

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, jason said:

1. Yes, he goes to UNC where Trubisky went.
2. He plays against weak ACC competition.
3. He looks almost exactly like Grayson Allen.
4. He has too many WTF games
5. Throws off his back foot a lot
6. Wild ad-libbing footwork

Mostly though, you're right, it's #1-2 for me. I'm not a fan of drafting dudes from non-powerhouse schools when they rack up stats against subpar competition.

well we may not see that the same way, but i will look for what youve said in #3-#6 when I look at film. And if he does get to the playoffs, we will see how he is there too, and if he doesnt, he wont be undefeated anymore LOL

[Alaskan Grizzly]

57 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

is undefeated this year

UNC's record is 8-2 this year with the two losses to Virginia and Ga Tech.  

 

53 minutes ago, jason said:

Because he smells like Mitch Trubisky.

I didn't notice this until today but he also wears #10.  And to your point about playing against tougher competition (I agree with this point) but was reading a scouting report on him and they (and several other scouts) say they will be paying close attention to the rematch against Clemson this coming weekend (18 Nov). The last time they met the Tar Heels lost 39-10 in the ACC Championship game at the end of the '22 season.  

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, jason said:

Because he smells like Mitch Trubisky.

Any underlying issues here from the past?

He was a four-star prospect and originally committed play college football at Alabama before flipping to North Carolina.

[AZ54]

I've only watched one game with Maye and a few pieces of games with Williams.  Admittedly that's a very small sample size yet neither stood out to me as #1 overall picks although both have good 1st Rd talent.  If I had to choose one based on my limited knowledge right now I'd go with Maye simply because I think there is a bit higher ceiling.  Despite that, watching this game film against Pitt nothing really jumps out at me saying he'll be elite in the NFL.  He can make some beautiful deep throws but then so can Fields.  Then he has plays that make you shake your head.  

As of today I can support one of two directions.  Draft one of these top QBs if you think they can be the guy, but keep Fields and let 'em all compete.   Trade away the loser after next season, or sooner if it's clear who is the guy.  

Or option two which I'll call the Purdy approach:  Keep Fields, trade back and then just absolutely load up the roster in the '24 draft and FA, garnering another 2025 1st Rd pick in the process.  Then in the '25 draft add more top talent such that any good game manager QB can drive the bus deep into the playoffs.   Or in 2025 make your move up to get your QB.  That QB would still be joining a good roster.  Should Fields, Bagent, or drafted QB not be the answer, you can usually fallback into a mid-level vet QB like Derek Carr or JimmyG in most off-seasons.    

Now if Fields fails miserably in these last 7 games then our hand will be forced this year.  I don't think that happens and I think he'll still be at least a QB you can win-with just not because-of.   

 

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

UNC's record is 8-2 this year with the two losses to Virginia and Ga Tech. 

Thank you. I read they were undefeated in an article, which was obviously old news. I appreciate the info.

[adam]

9 hours ago, jason said:

1. Yes, he goes to UNC where Trubisky went.
2. He plays against weak ACC competition.
3. He looks almost exactly like Grayson Allen.
4. He has too many WTF games
5. Throws off his back foot a lot
6. Wild ad-libbing footwork

Mostly though, you're right, it's #1-2 for me. I'm not a fan of drafting dudes from non-powerhouse schools when they rack up stats against subpar competition.

Out of all of those things you listed, the ACC talent is what scares me the most. It is already hard to make evaluations, then having to do it when either the opponents are bad or the teammates are really good is tough.  

[adam]

Damn, I probably found the most damning stat against Fields yet. I had no clue this was the case. How many of you guys knew this? Fields is 0-20 as a starter when the opponent scores 21 pts or more! Did anyone know this? That is a terrible stat. 

He is 6-5 when the opponent scores 20 or less. So basically he is a league average starter when the opponent scores 20 or less and is one of the worst QBs in the league when the opponent scores 21. That is impossible to win with because most good teams in the league will score more than 21. 

Now Bagent is 2-0 when the team allows 20 or less and 0-2 when they allow 21 or more. Dalton was 3-0 and 0-3. Foles was the last Bears QB to win a game when the opponent scored more than 21. The issue with Fields too is he has to win more of the easy games, losing 5 when the defense held the opponent to 20 or less is bad as well.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

25 minutes ago, adam said:

Damn, I probably found the most damning stat against Fields yet. I had no clue this was the case. How many of you guys knew this? Fields is 0-20 as a starter when the opponent scores 21 pts or more! Did anyone know this? That is a terrible stat. 

He is 6-5 when the opponent scores 20 or less. So basically he is a league average starter when the opponent scores 20 or less and is one of the worst QBs in the league when the opponent scores 21. That is impossible to win with because most good teams in the league will score more than 21. 

Now Bagent is 2-0 when the team allows 20 or less and 0-2 when they allow 21 or more. Dalton was 3-0 and 0-3. Foles was the last Bears QB to win a game when the opponent scored more than 21. The issue with Fields too is he has to win more of the easy games, losing 5 when the defense held the opponent to 20 or less is bad as well.

Look at the Bears roster since he was drafted.  He came into a dumpster that resulted in firing a gm and coach, then Poles gutted the team.  This might be year one where Poles has maybe 60-70% of the pieces of a decent team in place but they have dealt with an early load of injuries.  It is hard to evaluate but eventually there cannt be any more excuses.  The team is almost all healthy so it's go time.

[adam]

1 minute ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Look at the Bears roster since he was drafted.  He came into a dumpster that resulted in firing a gm and coach, then Poles gutted the team.  This might be year one where Poles has maybe 60-70% of the pieces of a decent team in place but they have dealt with an early load of injuries.  It is hard to evaluate but eventually there cannt be any more excuses.  The team is almost all healthy so it's go time.

Oh I understand, but you would think, after 35 starts, he would be on the winning side of at least one game where the defense allowed 21 pts or more. I was shocked that he hasn't been.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Look at the Bears roster since he was drafted.  He came into a dumpster that resulted in firing a gm and coach, then Poles gutted the team.  This might be year one where Poles has maybe 60-70% of the pieces of a decent team in place but they have dealt with an early load of injuries.  It is hard to evaluate but eventually there cannt be any more excuses.  The team is almost all healthy so it's go time.

It really is misleading to throw stats from the last 2 yrs and definitely from his first year that was a waste. Agree with your perspective. The defense is getting better and the OL is almost completely healthy. We are about to see a more competitive team going forward.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Oh I understand, but you would think, after 35 starts, he would be on the winning side of at least one game where the defense allowed 21 pts or more. I was shocked that he hasn't been.

So stats being what they are, how do you account for this years’ Denver game? Fields and the offense built a 21 point lead on Denver up through the 3rd quarter before losing by 3 (31-28).  The same Denver that has since beaten KC and Buffalo in Buffalo.  
 

In this game Fields set one of his newer records by making 16 consecutive completions (a team record) and 335 yards (at the time a personal high).  To me this may have been about the time he was starting to show an upward trend.  And to revive a ‘dead horse’ only to beat it again, the defense was not performing as it was more recently and the oline was still being figured out.  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 hours ago, adam said:

Oh I understand, but you would think, after 35 starts, he would be on the winning side of at least one game where the defense allowed 21 pts or more. I was shocked that he hasn't been.

You would think, but we are talking about the Bears.  They were the worst offense 2 years ago.  Maybe a slight increase the next year, ( one of the best run offenses).  This year they are middle of the pack (bottom1/4 passing, top 5 rushing).  The passing should be better, but let's see how they finish now that they are healthy

[AZ54]

On 11/15/2023 at 11:02 AM, ASHKUM BEAR said:

You would think, but we are talking about the Bears.  They were the worst offense 2 years ago.  Maybe a slight increase the next year, ( one of the best run offenses).  This year they are middle of the pack (bottom1/4 passing, top 5 rushing).  The passing should be better, but let's see how they finish now that they are healthy

Right after watching the Detroit game I felt it was Fields' best game of his career.  I wanted to wait and see the film to validate that.  I've now watched JT O'Sullivan's review and Chase Daniel's review.  Both backed up my sentiments.  JT was a bit more critical on a few plays but even on a couple of those you can clearly see pressure breaking free and Fields working around it.   Where JT says he should stand in there and fire, I'm also thinking.... if I could run like Justin can I'd escape and reset outside the pocket versus forcing something under pressure.  There was one really obvious play late in the game where Fields missed a wide open deep in-route.  The rest was generally on time, he went through progressions quickly (quicker than I've ever seen), and when watching the all-22 angles some of his passes were pretty incredible.  If he plays like this in the next game the arrow is definitely pointing upward and he's our QB for 2024.   

After watching Mahomes lose to the Eagles one thing is clear...receivers make a big difference.  The Chiefs had multiple drops in the game.  Jalen Hurts looked lost and played poorly under pressure for the vast majority of that game.   Feel free to roll back the film of Fields against KC for comparison.  I've only seen 3 Bills games this year but have yet to see Josh Allen play as well as what Fields did Sunday.   Sports and athletes are not a linear projection.   

Back to the WR issues on our team:  Consider Tyler Scott with the poor route on the deep pass to run the clock out and win the game.  Put MHJ in that spot next year and that game ends with a W.   I don't know what happened to Mooney, he rocked up in the offseason but now he can't separate from anybody.  DBs are easily jogging with him step for step in coverage.  Sure he gets open at times but almost always against zone coverages.  What have you seen him do in the redzone where coverages tighten up?  Velus could be cut any day now and nobody would notice.  He's not only been replaced by Scott but also the late roster addition Trent Taylor.   Cole Kmet is a very good inline TE but not a field stretcher in receiving.   Tonyan is horrible.  Tonyan can't block anyone and while that was somewhat expected I thought he'd at least be a reliable 4th option as a receiver.  He's not.   

Fields has the running game support he needs.  The pass protection is good.  Sure there are issues from time to time but that's also the NFL.   Mahomes and all the other top 10 QBs deal with occasional protection breakdowns too.  When that happens you want a guy like Fields (or Mahomes or Allen) who can  escape and throw on the run, or just run.  If his performance holds, even with some up/downs, then we need to see him with a legit #2 WR on the field next year alongside DJ Moore, plus a legit TE receiving threat as a compliment to Kmet.   I'm doubtful on bringing back Mooney on anything but a 1yr deal and prefer to let Scott take his role and then double dip in the draft with Rd 1/4 picks.  I can't believe I'm saying this but I'd keep ESB for next year, he's just reliable in both run game and passing.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFCwGuqEnVI.  Chase Daniel 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9Nf-erIkrU.   JT O'Sullivan

 

[Stinger226]

 Im just a fan but when you watch former QBs , they make sense in their breakdowns. I agree on all your points. I actually wouldnt mind drafting MHJ and Bowers but think one of the 2 first round picks will be a 3T or edge. I think Braxton Jones is progressing enough to not draft a OT with the early picks but we definitely need an upgrade with depth. I do think Mooney may have some injury restricting his play. He had a few good years to just be bad for no reason at all. I think they bring him back on a cheap deal, especially if we keep Fields. I think the Oline being healthier will allow Fields to play better but he is on a 7 game report card. He past the first game.

This will be the last time we pick that high unless Poles does another miracle trade and gets another first rounder next year. So he will consider drafting a QB high but as he breaks everything down , the best option may bring Fields back. Daniels said in the interview on the SCORE that adding a QB still would be an option with Fields staying with the NFL injury history this year. Bagent will end up being a good backup but (IMO) will never be a star in the league so bring in a Nix, Penix, Daniels , McCarthy and do a Rodgers type situation where he sits for a few years. Fields has shown to be tough but his style will have him miss some games every year. Williams and Maye are suppose to be the next great thing but are they? Poles will make that decision and I trust him him to make the right choice whatever it is.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Williams and Maye are suppose to be the next great thing but are they? Poles will make that decision and I trust him him to make the right choice whatever it is.

I think there are more QB-desperate teams out there that may want to trade up, maybe even a future 1st round, to get their guy.   Who knows, maybe Poles will call John Lynch to get some advice on how to fleece another GM of their first round pick to get a highly regarded QB from North Carolina?  

[Stinger226]

17 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I think there are more QB-desperate teams out there that may want to trade up, maybe even a future 1st round, to get their guy.   Who knows, maybe Poles will call John Lynch to get some advice on how to fleece another GM of their first round pick to get a highly regarded QB from North Carolina?  

No shit, I think we get a top 3 pick and also a top 10. Ideally the first pick. NE, Giants ,Wash, or even Az may be desperate for a QB. I think Poles will set this franchise up with another miracle type trade. Chargers have a potential great QB and they are losers with a bad coach and shaky roster. To be fair they have a lot of injuries but so did we. Poles came from KC and Cunningham from Philly, both of those teams built the team and then got their QB.  Liken Fields to the situation where KC had Alex Smith and as the 3rd QB taken, Mahomes sat for a year. I think he is using the same build plan. It may still be Fields but I think he also brings in a QB prospect to fall back on if Fields fails. We are one offseason from having the rebuild almost complete. He may think somebody is the real deal and draft him #1, he set himself up to make that choice in the next yr. Had we had better coaching and execution, we could be talking about a 5-6 record and would be having a different conversation.

I think he has to win next year to keep his job, so does drafting a rookie guarantee that? Not hardly , so I think he gets a better coach and adds to the roster then keeps Field and a QB prospect. Mahomes was the 3rd QB taken in his draft, Hurts was pick 53 the year he came out. I think he doubles down and hedges his bet on the right QB. 

[ChileBear]

7 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

No shit, I think we get a top 3 pick and also a top 10. Ideally the first pick. NE, Giants ,Wash, or even Az may be desperate for a QB. I think Poles will set this franchise up with another miracle type trade. Chargers have a potential great QB and they are losers with a bad coach and shaky roster. To be fair they have a lot of injuries but so did we. Poles came from KC and Cunningham from Philly, both of those teams built the team and then got their QB.  Liken Fields to the situation where KC had Alex Smith and as the 3rd QB taken, Mahomes sat for a year. I think he is using the same build plan. It may still be Fields but I think he also brings in a QB prospect to fall back on if Fields fails. We are one offseason from having the rebuild almost complete. He may think somebody is the real deal and draft him #1, he set himself up to make that choice in the next yr. Had we had better coaching and execution, we could be talking about a 5-6 record and would be having a different conversation.

I think he has to win next year to keep his job, so does drafting a rookie guarantee that? Not hardly , so I think he gets a better coach and adds to the roster then keeps Field and a QB prospect. Mahomes was the 3rd QB taken in his draft, Hurts was pick 53 the year he came out. I think he doubles down and hedges his bet on the right QB. 

Isn't Fields up for a new contract next year? THAT is going to complicate keeping/paying him and drafting a top QB. Just saying. Having Fields and a top QB drafted would be ideal.

 

[Stinger226]

1 minute ago, ChileBear said:

Isn't Fields up for a new contract next year? THAT is going to complicate keeping/paying him and drafting a top QB. Just saying. Having Fields and a top QB drafted would be ideal.

 

Its will be his 4th yr at 7 mil  but they have to pick up his 5th yr option which would be 25 mil. So technically they have him for 2 more yrs if he is playing well and could still draft a prospect ( McCarthy, Nix , Penix, Daniels and bring him along for 2 years. QB is the hardest position to fill in the NFL There is not 32 good QBs in this league so if we have a top 15 QB and also draft a prospect , we could solidify that spot with Fields, (?) and Bagent.  With better coaching and a better roster, we could finally have a continued winner for many years to come. Poles may think Williams or Maye is special and blow this concept out of the water but having several QB options is not a terrible idea. Farve and Rodgers were on the same team for several years and the result was a multi year winning team. As much as I hate to use the Packers as an example but they had winning records 11 times out of the last 14 years and those were years the QBs had injuries. They were in the playoffs 11 times. 

[BearFan PHX]

OK here are some stats side by side. of course stats don't tell the whole story, you need to watch film on these guys, and I haven't yet.

Still what pokes out is what a winning combination Harbaugh and McCarthy make.

What also jumps out is that there are a bunch of good QBs here, at least by the numbers, and if we could take MHJr with the top pick (or slide down to #2 for him etc) we should be able to pick up a very good QB at #5.

By the numbers, McCarthy sure does check a lot of boxes, but you can see that Williams and Daniels have been very good. look at some of those ratings. I never saw one over 200 before. But 6' 1" aint great, so if someone else wants Williams and we end up with MHJr and McCarthy or Daniels, especially with Harbaugh as coach, I think that would be amazing.

 

[Stinger226]

Here is a breakdown by Tim Jenkins, he does a good job of explaining everything.

 

[BearFan PHX]

I dont think Justin is the problem. I think the coaching is the problem, if there has to be only one. This is more Eberflus' fault than Justin's for sure.

But I additionally think that Fields isn't the guy to take you to the promised land. I see the talent and athleticism, but I'm still not seeing enough quarterbacking. And to keep Fields - not for another year tryout, but to plan on keeping him as the guy, youre gonna have to pay him big, and that will be a huge mistake in my opinion.

Fields is fun to watch, and he is heroic. He improvises and his best plays are broken plays. But you cant live on that edge without losing your share too. Play a team with a good defensive front, and that can turn into a bloodbath quickly. I dont think you can make a living out of what they call "hero ball" - it takes a team, and that takes a QB.

I used to tell a joke about Jay Cutler. It was that when Jay Cutler was little he dreamed of making an impossible 80 yard last second touchdown pass to win the Super Bowl. When Tom Brady was little, he dreamed of being up 35 points late in the 3rd quarter.

I think Fields is dynamic as hell, but doesn't do the core job of QBing. He is a point guard, but not a top 10 QB to me.

But for sure, we would have more wins with Fields if Eberflus and Getsy weren't running things. But could we regularly and reliably beat the good teams in the NFL with Justin? I don't think so.

That chart tells me you don't need to go hog wild to get Williams. It tells me we might be able to get MHJr AND a great QB in this years draft.

I havent settled on a name yet, but one intriguing idea is Harbaugh and McCarthy stay united and bring their collective 23-1 record to the league. They sure do know how to win together. What would that look like with our fearsome running game, and McCarthy executing Harbaugh's offense with Moore and MHJr?!

That's just one scenario, but there will be others. We have a bright path forward.

[Stinger226]

12 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dont think Justin is the problem. I think the coaching is the problem, if there has to be only one. This is more Eberflus' fault than Justin's for sure.

But I additionally think that Fields isn't the guy to take you to the promised land. I see the talent and athleticism, but I'm still not seeing enough quarterbacking. And to keep Fields - not for another year tryout, but to plan on keeping him as the guy, youre gonna have to pay him big, and that will be a huge mistake in my opinion.

Fields is fun to watch, and he is heroic. He improvises and his best plays are broken plays. But you cant live on that edge without losing your share too. Play a team with a good defensive front, and that can turn into a bloodbath quickly. I dont think you can make a living out of what they call "hero ball" - it takes a team, and that takes a QB.

I used to tell a joke about Jay Cutler. It was that when Jay Cutler was little he dreamed of making an impossible 80 yard last second touchdown pass to win the Super Bowl. When Tom Brady was little, he dreamed of being up 35 points late in the 3rd quarter.

I think Fields is dynamic as hell, but doesn't do the core job of QBing. He is a point guard, but not a top 10 QB to me.

But for sure, we would have more wins with Fields if Eberflus and Getsy weren't running things. But could we regularly and reliably beat the good teams in the NFL with Justin? I don't think so.

That chart tells me you don't need to go hog wild to get Williams. It tells me we might be able to get MHJr AND a great QB in this years draft.

I havent settled on a name yet, but one intriguing idea is Harbaugh and McCarthy stay united and bring their collective 23-1 record to the league. They sure do know how to win together. What would that look like with our fearsome running game, and McCarthy executing Harbaugh's offense with Moore and MHJr?!

That's just one scenario, but there will be others. We have a bright path forward.

Lets go with your scenario and Fields plays well the rest of the year and Poles decides to trade him for a 2nd round pick ,or maybe even a #1. We draft McCarty and still have Bagent. It could work out that Bagent starts the season as the starter and McCarthy doesnt play this year because we upgrade the team enough to make the playoffs with Bagent. It may not be a rookie for any QB other than a Williams or Maye acquisition would sit. Would you be good with that?