QB thread

[BearFan PHX]

13 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Lets go with your scenario and Fields plays well the rest of the year and Poles decides to trade him for a 2nd round pick ,or maybe even a #1. We draft McCarty and still have Bagent. It could work out that Bagent starts the season as the starter and McCarthy doesnt play this year because we upgrade the team enough to make the playoffs with Bagent. It may not be a rookie for any QB other than a Williams or Maye acquisition would sit. Would you be good with that?

I would expect that would be the plan. If Bagent kept winning, then you'd keep the rookie as second string for a while. But at some point during the year, youd see how the rookie was doing in practice, and if you determine that he will be better than Bagent, then you start the rookie at that point even if Bagent is still playing well.

Remember if you use a top first round pick on a rookie QB, your plan is eventually hes gonna be the guy, and as soon as he looks like it in practice, theyd make the switch.

Mahomes sat the whole year behind Alex Smith. That would be the extreme example. Usually, by week 6 or 8, the rookie is in.

[Stinger226]

36 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I would expect that would be the plan. If Bagent kept winning, then you'd keep the rookie as second string for a while. But at some point during the year, youd see how the rookie was doing in practice, and if you determine that he will be better than Bagent, then you start the rookie at that point even if Bagent is still playing well.

Remember if you use a top first round pick on a rookie QB, your plan is eventually hes gonna be the guy, and as soon as he looks like it in practice, theyd make the switch.

Mahomes sat the whole year behind Alex Smith. That would be the extreme example. Usually, by week 6 or 8, the rookie is in.

I don't think that worked out for SF, 3 first rounders for Lance and ended up with the last pick in the draft starting for them. Good think they built the team first so that worked out for them. ( so far)

[BearFan PHX]

37 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I don't think that worked out for SF, 3 first rounders for Lance and ended up with the last pick in the draft starting for them. Good think they built the team first so that worked out for them. ( so far)

There are examples of every strategy working and not working. You cant say that Lance flamed out in SF because they sat him first. You cant say he would have been successful if they had put him in right away.

You have to look at statistics and trends. In general, it does seem to be the common wisdom in the NFL that the rookies dont start week one, and generally are starting by week 8. That goes for rookies who play really well and for those that dont. Its just what almost always happens.

The reason is that most rookies arent ready week one, and if youre gonna spend a first round pick on a player, when you think hes ready you want to see him.

It sounds like now youre trying to protect Bagent. I get that once someone is a Bear you love them, but you gotta be smart. If we pick a top first round QB, theyre going to pay eventually.

Im gonna make this easy so we dont have to go back and forth for the next 7 weeks.

1) Eberflus is gone after this year.

2) 70% Fields is gone after this year

3) 90% we will pick a rookie QB in the first 20 picks

4) That rookie QB will start a game by week 8

at that point, once we have all that data we can debate whether Bagent has grown enough to actually be better than the rookie or not. And youll have to give the rookie the same grace you give everyone else - a decent chance across multiple games to show himself and grow.

That's what's going to happen. i think everyone knows it.

[Stinger226]

9 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

There are examples of every strategy working and not working. You cant say that Lance flamed out in SF because they sat him first. You cant say he would have been successful if they had put him in right away.

You have to look at statistics and trends. In general, it does seem to be the common wisdom in the NFL that the rookies dont start week one, and generally are starting by week 8. That goes for rookies who play really well and for those that dont. Its just what almost always happens.

The reason is that most rookies arent ready week one, and if youre gonna spend a first round pick on a player, when you think hes ready you want to see him.

It sounds like now youre trying to protect Bagent. I get that once someone is a Bear you love them, but you gotta be smart. If we pick a top first round QB, theyre going to pay eventually.

Im gonna make this easy so we dont have to go back and forth for the next 7 weeks.

1) Eberflus is gone after this year.

2) 70% Fields is gone after this year

3) 90% we will pick a rookie QB in the first 20 picks

4) That rookie QB will start a game by week 8

at that point, once we have all that data we can debate whether Bagent has grown enough to actually be better than the rookie or not. And youll have to give the rookie the same grace you give everyone else - a decent chance across multiple games to show himself and grow.

That's what's going to happen. i think everyone knows it.

Im not smooching for Bagent just saying there is many options on the table. The 2 most likely are Fields is our QB next year or Poles drafts a QB with one of his 2 first picks. The problem is its a little early to predict that now. If he plays like he did against Detroit , he will be our starting QB next year. 70% dont think Flus makes it to the 2024 HC position. Poles has to win next year to keep his job so rebooting may not get him there. Having a rookie QB may not advance this team in his first year. So  are either of the top 2 picks,  Bryce Young or CJ Stroud? No one knows that . I dont think there is a Mahomes or Burrows in this draft but I dont get the same info that Poles will have to make his choice. Lots of prospects to choose from after that. Several good ones could come  out of this draft or all could just be a guy. GMs get new contracts or get fired according to those decisions. 

If Flus goes 6-0 or 5-1 in the last 6 games he may still be here whether we like it or not. Poles gutted the roster last year so all of those losses are not on Flus but this year has exposed a lot of shortcoming on his part. He is a first time head coach and also Getsy as a OC. If they go 5-1 going forward that means they were doing something right. That's why these last 6 games are so important to let play out. 

My take is Poles needs to win next year and his best case scenario is to keep Fields for  the next 2 year and take a QB not named Williams or Maye. That gives him the advantage of Fields (ends up being the guy) while he can develop a prospect. Why would he take the risk of both  failing instead of both being good or just one but which one? Wasnt the Farve - Rodgers an ideal situation in GB? They both were good. If he picked the right QB then in 2025 he could trade a good QB with a 25 mil salary which would be cheap . Move on with a young QB that he got to see his development. I dont think Fields has the kind of ego that would not welcome the challenge as long as it wasnt the 2 top QBs.

This is the kind of draft I would like Poles to do, lots of trade downs .This many probably wont happen but we could load the roster and still draft a QB prospect.

2.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

WR Ohio State

10.

Jer'Zhan Newton

DT Illinois

29.

Laiatu Latu

EDGE UCLA

37.

Sedrick Van Pran

OC Georgia

42.

Jayden Daniels

QB LSU

61.

Tyler Guyton

OT Oklahoma

66.

D.J. James

CB Auburn

68.

Calen Bullock

S USC

100.

Zak Zinter

OG Michigan

101.

Luke Lachey

TE Iowa

2025 ARI 1st

2025 WAS 3rd

2025 GB 3rd

 

 

[Mongo3451]

10 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Remember if you use a top first round pick on a rookie QB, your plan is eventually hes gonna be the guy, and as soon as he looks like it in practice, theyd make the switch.

Mahomes sat the whole year behind Alex Smith. That would be the extreme example. Usually, by week 6 or 8, the rookie is in.

That would be a wonderful situation to be in.  I do think you forgot about that team up north, as Rodgers and Love are hated examples.  Popular practice is to never bench a starter, for any reason, when they are playing well. 

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Im not smooching for Bagent just saying there is many options on the table. The 2 most likely are Fields is our QB next year or Poles drafts a QB with one of his 2 first picks. The problem is its a little early to predict that now. If he plays like he did against Detroit , he will be our starting QB next year. 70% dont think Flus makes it to the 2024 HC position. Poles has to win next year to keep his job so rebooting may not get him there. Having a rookie QB may not advance this team in his first year. So  are either of the top 2 picks,  Bryce Young or CJ Stroud? No one knows that . I dont think there is a Mahomes or Burrows in this draft but I dont get the same info that Poles will have to make his choice. Lots of prospects to choose from after that. Several good ones could come  out of this draft or all could just be a guy. GMs get new contracts or get fired according to those decisions. 

If Flus goes 6-0 or 5-1 in the last 6 games he may still be here whether we like it or not. Poles gutted the roster last year so all of those losses are not on Flus but this year has exposed a lot of shortcoming on his part. He is a first time head coach and also Getsy as a OC. If they go 5-1 going forward that means they were doing something right. That's why these last 6 games are so important to let play out. 

My take is Poles needs to win next year and his best case scenario is to keep Fields for  the next 2 year and take a QB not named Williams or Maye. That gives him the advantage of Fields (ends up being the guy) while he can develop a prospect. Why would he take the risk of both  failing instead of both being good or just one but which one? Wasnt the Farve - Rodgers an ideal situation in GB? They both were good. If he picked the right QB then in 2025 he could trade a good QB with a 25 mil salary which would be cheap . Move on with a young QB that he got to see his development. I dont think Fields has the kind of ego that would not welcome the challenge as long as it wasnt the 2 top QBs.

This is the kind of draft I would like Poles to do, lots of trade downs .This many probably wont happen but we could load the roster and still draft a QB prospect.

2.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

WR Ohio State

10.

Jer'Zhan Newton

DT Illinois

29.

Laiatu Latu

EDGE UCLA

37.

Sedrick Van Pran

OC Georgia

42.

Jayden Daniels

QB LSU

61.

Tyler Guyton

OT Oklahoma

66.

D.J. James

CB Auburn

68.

Calen Bullock

S USC

100.

Zak Zinter

OG Michigan

101.

Luke Lachey

TE Iowa

2025 ARI 1st

2025 WAS 3rd

2025 GB 3rd

 

 

That'd be a good draft.  

[adam]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Im not smooching for Bagent just saying there is many options on the table. The 2 most likely are Fields is our QB next year or Poles drafts a QB with one of his 2 first picks. The problem is its a little early to predict that now. If he plays like he did against Detroit , he will be our starting QB next year. 70% dont think Flus makes it to the 2024 HC position. Poles has to win next year to keep his job so rebooting may not get him there. Having a rookie QB may not advance this team in his first year. So  are either of the top 2 picks,  Bryce Young or CJ Stroud? No one knows that . I dont think there is a Mahomes or Burrows in this draft but I dont get the same info that Poles will have to make his choice. Lots of prospects to choose from after that. Several good ones could come  out of this draft or all could just be a guy. GMs get new contracts or get fired according to those decisions. 

If Flus goes 6-0 or 5-1 in the last 6 games he may still be here whether we like it or not. Poles gutted the roster last year so all of those losses are not on Flus but this year has exposed a lot of shortcoming on his part. He is a first time head coach and also Getsy as a OC. If they go 5-1 going forward that means they were doing something right. That's why these last 6 games are so important to let play out. 

My take is Poles needs to win next year and his best case scenario is to keep Fields for  the next 2 year and take a QB not named Williams or Maye. That gives him the advantage of Fields (ends up being the guy) while he can develop a prospect. Why would he take the risk of both  failing instead of both being good or just one but which one? Wasnt the Farve - Rodgers an ideal situation in GB? They both were good. If he picked the right QB then in 2025 he could trade a good QB with a 25 mil salary which would be cheap . Move on with a young QB that he got to see his development. I dont think Fields has the kind of ego that would not welcome the challenge as long as it wasnt the 2 top QBs.

This is the kind of draft I would like Poles to do, lots of trade downs .This many probably wont happen but we could load the roster and still draft a QB prospect.

2.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

WR Ohio State

10.

Jer'Zhan Newton

DT Illinois

29.

Laiatu Latu

EDGE UCLA

37.

Sedrick Van Pran

OC Georgia

42.

Jayden Daniels

QB LSU

61.

Tyler Guyton

OT Oklahoma

66.

D.J. James

CB Auburn

68.

Calen Bullock

S USC

100.

Zak Zinter

OG Michigan

101.

Luke Lachey

TE Iowa

2025 ARI 1st

2025 WAS 3rd

2025 GB 3rd

 

 

That would be an awesome draft, but I doubt we ever trade with GB.

[Bill]

13 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I don't think that worked out for SF, 3 first rounders for Lance and ended up with the last pick in the draft starting for them. Good think they built the team first so that worked out for them. ( so far)

Build the team inside out.  Then get a QB.  Studs on both lines before anything else.

[Bears4Ever_34]

I've gone back and forth on the Williams/Fields talk. I'm honestly 50/50 right now. 

I'm not sold on Fields as a true franchise quarterback yet, but I have serious questions about Caleb Williams, both as a player and as a leader.

If the Bears had the #1 pick, I still like the idea of keeping Fields and drafting Williams anyway and letting the two battle it out in training camp with a new head coach as a way of hedging your bets in case Fields were to go elsewhere and ball out, but I suspect that scenario would be a very difficult, if not impossible, distraction to deal with for any coach. 

Outside of (maybe) Williams, though, there is no other quarterback in this class that I'd rather have than Fields. If the Bears have the 2nd or 3rd pick in this draft, I'm taking MHJ, and I don't even think twice.

[BearFan PHX]

I think we might use the top pick on MHJr and grab a QB with the next pick.

I don't really want Williams (subject to change as I do my research this offseason) and from what I know now, Id be happy with a few of the other choices, which means no need to grab a QB with that #1 pick.

[Stinger226]

Maye seems to be more of the pocket passer that fits what were doing now. Williams seems more similar to Fields as far as a wild card. Maye has a higher floor but not as high of a  ceiling as Williams does. Hell Poles may like someone else more/ Los of choices this year. 

[BearFan PHX]

13 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Maye seems to be more of the pocket passer that fits what were doing now. Williams seems more similar to Fields as far as a wild card. Maye has a higher floor but not as high of a  ceiling as Williams does. Hell Poles may like someone else more/ Los of choices this year. 

Yeah, there are a bunch of pocket passers this year. Some of them are deceptively good with their feet too, but they are still pocket passers. Maye, Penix, McCarthy all fit that mold. Dont sleep on Daniels either. I dont see any of those guys making it out of the first round.

[Stinger226]

33 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Yeah, there are a bunch of pocket passers this year. Some of them are deceptively good with their feet too, but they are still pocket passers. Maye, Penix, McCarthy all fit that mold. Dont sleep on Daniels either. I dont see any of those guys making it out of the first round.

I've only seem one game of Daniels and he played well. Seen 5 of Williams and he lost all of them to good competition. he did beat Colorado. Ended up with good stats but didnt impress me much. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

I've only seem one game of Daniels and he played well. Seen 5 of Williams and he lost all of them to good competition. he did beat Colorado. Ended up with good stats but didnt impress me much. 

Ultimately it's the eye test that matters, and I havent seen enough of any of these guys yet, but if you scroll up and look at the chart I posted with stats, Daniels is killing it this year. He leads them all in 2023 with a 208 QB rating! I didnt know it went that high! With a 73% completion percentage and a leading 11.8 yards per attempt. And the guy is 6' 4"

Now that Williams has lost a few games (well his team did) there is a lot of talk of Daniels for the Heisman.

Ill repaste the chart here to make it easier for everyone. There are a lot of impressive numbers there, for a bunch of guys.

 

[adam]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Ultimately it's the eye test that matters, and I havent seen enough of any of these guys yet, but if you scroll up and look at the chart I posted with stats, Daniels is killing it this year. He leads them all in 2023 with a 208 QB rating! I didnt know it went that high! With a 73% completion percentage and a leading 11.8 yards per attempt. And the guy is 6' 4"

Now that Williams has lost a few games (well his team did) there is a lot of talk of Daniels for the Heisman.

Ill repaste the chart here to make it easier for everyone. There are a lot of impressive numbers there, for a bunch of guys.

 

Rushing is also important, and Daniels has over 1000 yards on the ground this year with 10 rushing TDs. For his career he has 34 rushing TDs to go with his 85 passing and 1 receiving TD for 119 total TDs.  In comparison Fields had 67 and 19 for a total of 86 total TDs. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Rushing is also important, and Daniels has over 1000 yards on the ground this year with 10 rushing TDs. For his career he has 34 rushing TDs to go with his 85 passing and 1 receiving TD for 119 total TDs.  In comparison Fields had 67 and 19 for a total of 86 total TDs. 

for sure. Maye and McCarthy are pretty fleet of foot too - and of course Williams is too.

But Justin is still better at that than most or all of them. So first they have to be actual pocket passing with rhythm and anticipation QBs, not Wildcat QBs. Then you can add in the extras, and to your point, a lot of these guys have that and the extras too. It's a very good class.

With this grouping of talent, and my worries about Williams being a head case and a little short, I don't really see a need to pick a QB with the #1 pick. And unless Arizona is on fire for a QB, we cant get MHJr with a trade down even to 2. So I can see us taking MHJr at #1 and then playing games to get one of the guys on that list, whoever falls. Depending on how it goes, 5 might be as far as we can fall, but I havent done the board, so maybe 8 or 11 or something like that would work. I dunno.

[Pixote]

I'm watching Oregon play Oregon State now. Anxious to see Bo Nix play. I do not watch a lot of college football but a friend of mine who is an avid fan of same says he thinks Bo Nix is the best QB prospect this year. Any thoughts on this guy?

[BearFan PHX]

If I had to pick one or two, I'd pick Daniels or McCarthy. That's where I am right now, I haven't seen enough film and analysis yet to be sure.

But whoever we take will be better throwing to Moore and MHJr, and I'd take that over my first QB pick without MHJr?
 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, Pixote said:

I'm watching Oregon play Oregon State now. Anxious to see Bo Nix play. I do not watch a lot of college football but a friend of mine who is an avid fan of same says he thinks Bo Nix is the best QB prospect this year. Any thoughts on this guy?

He left the SEC To go to the pass happy the Pac 12. He did t excellent in the SEC, doing better now.  I am leary of Nix.

[BearFan PHX]

15 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

He left the SEC To go to the pass happy the Pac 12. He did t excellent in the SEC, doing better now.  I am leary of Nix.

Bo Nix is also on my list above, but I havent seen him play yet.

Hes got the best completion percentage this year out of all of them at 78.1% and the second best QB rating just below Daniels at 191.35 which is monstrous. His winning percentage is good and he has played 58 games so theres lots of film on him.

[Stinger226]

For what i have watched and that's limited, i like Daniels, for the reason you guys have mentioned. i dont want any smallish QBs, prefer size. Justin at 6' 3" 230 is perfect for a QB . i always worry about one's under 6'1" and close to 200 lbs . worry about durability. Poles will do the work and will trust his judgement even if he decides to stay with Justin. +1 in his last 7 games. If he finishes with a 5+ or better he may have a better upside than any rookies over the next 2 yrs.

Tua didnt start out as a QB with great skills but now is hitting his stride in his fourth yr with great WRs , a running game and good OL. He had a good 3rd yr going 9-8  in his first yr with Hill. Hurts didnt hit his stride until his third yr on a already built team after he got AJ Brown. Same for Josh Allen his third year when he got Diggs. Anyone see a pattern here? The built a team around him and gave him a #1 WR. 

For me , Justin is in his second yr. Spending a yr under Nagy was a negative. That year they planned on Dalton starting and Fields sitting for a year. Never got any first team reps and then threw him to the fire with no OL and limited weapons.   The first game he started he was sacked 9 times .A wasted year. So if you view this year as his second the view looks a little different. If you build the team ( happening right now) and taylor an offense around his skills he can win in this league. 

[Pixote]

Love your take on Fields. Tired of reading his obituaries. 

Any idea where Daniels is currently being projected in the draft?

[Stinger226]

Late first , early 2nd round. I think if we trade back , can still get him with an early 2nd round pick.

[BearFan PHX]

36 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Late first , early 2nd round. I think if we trade back , can still get him with an early 2nd round pick.

Maybe a few weeks ago, but not anymore, his stock is rising daily, and people are saying he might win the Heisman.

You know all the hype around these QBs ebbs and flows and by the time we get to draft day, no way Daniels goes in the second round.

[adam]

9 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

For what i have watched and that's limited, i like Daniels, for the reason you guys have mentioned. i dont want any smallish QBs, prefer size. Justin at 6' 3" 230 is perfect for a QB . i always worry about one's under 6'1" and close to 200 lbs . worry about durability. Poles will do the work and will trust his judgement even if he decides to stay with Justin. +1 in his last 7 games. If he finishes with a 5+ or better he may have a better upside than any rookies over the next 2 yrs.

Tua didnt start out as a QB with great skills but now is hitting his stride in his fourth yr with great WRs , a running game and good OL. He had a good 3rd yr going 9-8  in his first yr with Hill. Hurts didnt hit his stride until his third yr on a already built team after he got AJ Brown. Same for Josh Allen his third year when he got Diggs. Anyone see a pattern here? The built a team around him and gave him a #1 WR. 

For me , Justin is in his second yr. Spending a yr under Nagy was a negative. That year they planned on Dalton starting and Fields sitting for a year. Never got any first team reps and then threw him to the fire with no OL and limited weapons.   The first game he started he was sacked 9 times .A wasted year. So if you view this year as his second the view looks a little different. If you build the team ( happening right now) and taylor an offense around his skills he can win in this league. 

My only concern is that the offense reverted back to the same offense that we saw for a few games last year that made us all hopeful. However, it was the unsustainable offensive model that had Fields running 20 times a game. 

Before the injury he had his first 300 yard passing game against DEN, then the 282 passing game with 57 rushing yards against WAS. Both games with 4 TDs. That is what everyone was waiting for. Then he looked lost against MIN before getting hurt.

Then against DET, he passed for 169 yards and rushed for 104. So 273 passing+rushing yards. We can pass it off as it was injury related, but that was the same thing they did last year, which had some great highlights, but never seemed like a sustainable model.

I would rather he be over 250 yards passing and under 50 yards rushing every game.  The Bears are 0-4 when he rushes for 100+ yards.