QB thread

[ASHKUM BEAR]

29 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

 

by the way, thank you both for this. Both posts are extremely reasonable. If it helps I wasnt feeling the "hate" from either of you guys.

Now if JF made another costly error to lose the Minny game, I would have said that's a wrap.  He did enough to live another day lol. He can rebound Sunday against Det, and if he carries the offense then the discussion get muddied again. It will be an up and down remainder of the season thing.

[BearFan PHX]

50 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Now if JF made another costly error to lose the Minny game, I would have said that's a wrap.  He did enough to live another day lol. He can rebound Sunday against Det, and if he carries the offense then the discussion get muddied again. It will be an up and down remainder of the season thing.

well you dont need me to tell you that Im already done with him, but surely tthat's just my opinion of what the future holds, and truth be told, if JF is awesome, that would make me very happy indeed.

I do worry that if JF plays well but not lights out, the sample size will be too small to trust, but if he is flat out amazing for 5 games in a row, that'd be something to consider. I just dont know when you get two high picks again.

Then again, at this point (without having seen enough film on Williams and the others) I'd take MHJr with pick #1, and take a different QB either at #5, or trading down to #12-ish or something. I'm just pulling numbers out of the air here to be descriptive, I don't know what the draft scenarios are yet, but if you can drop down and take one of the good QBs later, Id look at that.

[Stinger226]

I cant find anywhere on here that someone said ( that Fields doesnt hold the ball too long, and doesnt have a problem pulling the trigger .). 

     My whole counterpoint about Fields is he has shown growth on some  of his weaknesses, and we have 5 games left to see him improve. Its a big grey area of good and bad, He does some things well and somethings bad. He absolutely needs to improve on getting the ball out quicker but there has been times that he did that. Consistency is the most important aspect about getting better. I keep getting the  impression you think he never has which isnt true. Play calling and an inconsistent OL play have affected his performance. No where have I ever said he doesnt hold some responsibility on his bad play. The difference between you and me is, I think he can improve, you do not. 

Many factors come into play on whether we drat a rookie to take over at QB. If Carolina wins a couple games, the #1 pick will no  longer be a topic of Williams or Maye. Poles said a QB would have to blow him away to draft at the top of the draft. If its Williams or Maye, I would prefer Maye, Williams not playing well against better coopetition, his fumbling issue (same as Justin) and his attitude . (only going to play for 3 teams and being emotional on the sidelines after a loss). Williams seems more of a maverick instead of staying in the pocket. (same as Justin). Yes he sees the field better but they say he is 6' and 211, smallish IMO . the combine will correct that information. Maye is 6'4" 229 lbs. Has more disciple staying in the pocket and sees the field well. Both have strong arms. 

There are several other options at QB of which I like Jayden Daniels the best. Poles will do a much more complex evaluation than any of us fans can do. If he thinks  the franchise QB is in this draft and moves on from Justin, I will totally support that. I dont think we should just draft a QB for change sake. 

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I cant find anywhere on here that someone said ( that Fields doesnt hold the ball too long, and doesnt have a problem pulling the trigger .).

Since you didnt take the time to rebut the last time I proved it, ill pass on the research project, but in truth youve said a lot of things that you then hedged on. So, yeah.

I think it's best if I just ignore your "arguments"

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Since you didnt take the time to rebut the last time I proved it, ill pass on the research project, but in truth youve said a lot of things that you then hedged on. So, yeah.

I think it's best if I just ignore your "arguments"

I  absolutely never made that statement. So how do I go back and find it when i never said it. You are right that would be a very time consuming project. If you want I do have written down the posts where you called me a moron, ignorant , a loser, ect. If you want me to post your remarks, I already did the research. All of these remarks are because I dont see Fields as a turd and dont have your opinion. But now ,as you say to other members on here, that you have no problem with different opinions.  

Your best statement I seen on these threads, was in in the( Week 12 thread- page 4-last post) where I quote (Bears win   we all lose) that was after Fields threw a game winning TD. 

[BearFan PHX]

youve thrown enough of your weak punches, say what you will. i think it's OK if I dont engage. with you

[Stinger226]

I did mention after your last hissy fit , I offered a peace treaty , that we just dont respond to any of our posts but of course you ignored that but now you just wont engage . What a great idea. 7:32-- 12/2/2023 you arent engaging anymore.  

[BearFan PHX]

jesus. you wouldnt say any of this shit to my face. Id stick that hissy fit up your ass.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Sorry I haven’t posted earlier. I got you (PHX) to do all that work and I haven’t come back and rightfully ripped it to shreds.  Lol. 
 

At any rate, I’d first like to tell AZ54 I wish he and his wife all the best. Me and mine went through our own version of a medical challenging time a few years ago.  It’s one thing when you’re the one who isn’t feeling well, but a whole different level when it’s a loved one. I can only hope and pray that you guys will see your way through it all.

And PHX, the remark you being a transplant was more about being funny and not anything derogatory. As I sit here in 20-ish degree weather I envy all of you who are in warmer climates.  In a few more years when I retire (again) my plan is to to leave Alaska for good. 

Now with regards to your breakdown.  You said every play you watched Justin missed a read.  And you qualified it by saying you only watched the first 10 mins.  I would agree to some level.  [HAD TO SWITCH TO A COMPUTER].

Of the "four plays" you watched; I would think he did in fact miss at least one read (the first one).  The others?  Maybe not.  There was something like 50 total plays to analyze and I can safely say (assume) he didn't miss EVERY open player.  Part of what I was looking for in your screenshots was to see what Justin was looking at or having to deal with while he was trying to read the field. Remember the part about him being blitzed nearly '60% of the plays'?  That has to count for something.  And like Chase said to be able to 'make magic' in those situations, should be considered.  In fact, the idea that he didn't turn the ball over more in the form of INTs is pretty incredible.  While being rushed he 'read the field' the best he could and made plays while under some pretty remarkable pressure. 

For example, that one play where you thought Scott was open and Justin dumped it off to Kmet(?).  I think Chase and AZ both said the same thing I saw.   Scott was a bit further down the field and had a safety trailing him by a few steps.  Justin probably thought (in the .5 seconds he had to analyze it) may have thought that was riskier a throw than was to dump it off to a surer handed Kmet.  Had he thrown that pass (to Scott) and been picked (or missed) we'd be asking why he didn't go for a surer pass.  (To me he's in a catch-22 in those situations).  

I get where your frustration has grown with what looks like he will never get over the hump of being able to scan the field.  He did more issues with that early on, but I think he's gotten better.  HIs talent is undeniable.  And what concerns me about getting another QB currently in the college ranks to replace him is I have a hard time finding anyone that has proven themselves to the level Justin did while in college.  I know that doesn't mean everything when it comes to making it in the NFL but to me, that proves he can perform in the most challenging of atmospheres.  

Lastly. there's nothing wrong with wanting to 'defend this hill' if you feel passionate about it.  Like Mongo said, I've 'been there done that'.  I took some barbs for bailing on Trubisky, being a fan of Lovie's and exchanged heat with Jason over olinemen vs skill players. It happens.  I trust you when you say you want Justin to succeed but you want a real strong plan A in place it doesn't work out.  

[BearFan PHX]

Just now, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Sorry I haven’t posted earlier. I got you (PHX) to do all that work and I haven’t come back and rightfully ripped it to shreds.  Lol. 
 

At any rate, I’d first like to tell AZ54 I wish he and his wife all the best. Me and mine went through our own version of a medial challenging time a few years ago.  It’s one thing when you’re the one who isn’t feeling well, but a whole different level when it’s a loved one. I can only hope and pray that you guys will see your way through it all.

And PHX, the remark you being a transplant was more about being funny and not anything derogatory. As I sit here in 20-ish degree weather I envy all of you who are in warmer climates.  In a few more years when I retire (again) my plan is to to leave Alaska for good. 

Now with regards to your breakdown.  You said every play you watched Justin missed a read.  And you qualified it by saying you only watched the first 10 mins.  I would agree to some level (stand by). 

Youre Good Grizz, even if we disagree, Im not mad at you in the least. Come at me with specifics, and it's all good

[Stinger226]

11 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

jesus. you wouldnt say any of this shit to my face. Id stick that hissy fit up your ass.

What a coincidence , I was thinking the same thing. 

All of this started when I posted a Tim Lewis video about him praising Justin on an analyze of one of his games. you have for along time let everyone know you dont  like Fields so I mentioned you probably wouldnt like the video. Then you blow up on the thought I attacked your fandom. That's when the the loser, ignorant, blind statements started flying. You have literally called Justin a turd , terrible on so many occasions I lost count. You can post all of these deep evaluations of his play all you want but I will support him as long as he is our QB. Several times I have mentioned how bad he played and if he doesnt improve I will be out on him but you say Im this ignorant Kool-Aid drinking fan that worships him. 

I have no problem with your opinion but your constant attacks and name calling doesnt sit very well. If anyone else on here disagrees with you and you say you have no problem with different opinions as you try to convince everyone that your opinion are so righteous.  I want us to win and Justin to succeed, I get he isnt perfect and has issues but all your comments are anti Fields. Then you posting( you want the team to lose) lost me on trying to have a conversation with you. I asked you to  lets just stop responding to each other and of course you ignore me. Not you want to kick my ass. 

You are one hosed up dude, I ask you again to let's stop . We dont like each other I can live with that so stop with your attacks. I have disagreements with other people on here , no one goes to name callings and loses their mind because I say favorable things about Justin. 

[adam]

I think everyone had their hopes up about Justin in Year #3, and due to a wide variety of things, he has not made as high of a leap as others or that most would've expected.

The 3 main comps I have heard for recent QBs that got their true WR1 were Allen, Hurts, and Tua. Here are their Year 2 to 3 Year averages for passing yards per game, per attempt, and then a generic stat like QBR.

Year 2 to Year 3
YPG - Y/A - QBR

Allen - 
193>284 (+91)
6.7>7.9 (+1.2)
49.4>76.6 (+27.2)

Hurts
209>246 (+37)
7.3>8.0 (+0.7)
54.6>68.3 (+13.7)

Tua - 
204>272 (+68)
6.8>8.9 (+2.1)
55.7>70.6 (+14.9)

Average
+65 YPG
+1.3 Y/A
+18.6 QBR

Fields
149>198 (+49)
7.1>7.1 (+/- 0.0)
56.3>44.7 (-11.6)

Fields improved his YPG but not even to the point of the average of the other QBs. The other 3 started with higher averages, so technically any gains from them should've been harder. For Y/A, every QB except Fields saw an improvement. Then the dagger for me is QBR. It takes so many things into account and is truly an objective grade compared to PFF and others. In this case, all 3 of the others improved by no less than 13 pts, with them improving by an average of 18. Fields is down 11 from 2022 (so there is a 29 pt deviation there). 

Now the biggest caveat is, the year ain't over. Fields has 5 games to significantly influence all those numbers, but in order to do that, he needs more games like DEN and WAS. Those were the games we have all been waiting for. Now the next step is doing them consistently. So with 5 games remaining, he needs at least 3 of those type games.

 

My conspiracy theory is that the team has already made the decision, that is why you saw some extremely conservative game plans the last few two weeks. They are going to limit one of Fields negatives, INTs, by not allowing him to throw into high danger areas. I am sure this is them building up trade value for him so when it is all said and done, his INT% is not one of the worst in the league. It looks to be working with no picks in the last two games. I could be wrong, but it just feels that way to me. I would rather see them let him rip it and see what happens.

[Pixote]

The problem is, as I see it, Fields' trade value is currently so low that we'd be basically dumping him. Those of you who want to see us trade him, you'd best hope he looks terrific in the last 5 games so that we can get a good enough offer for Poles to consider. BUT.  Wait. If he kicks butt in the last 5, do we want to trade him, or keep him? Gets complicated.

I have faith in Poles to figure it out without my help. LOL

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, adam said:

I think everyone had their hopes up about Justin in Year #3, and due to a wide variety of things, he has not made as high of a leap as others or that most would've expected.

The 3 main comps I have heard for recent QBs that got their true WR1 were Allen, Hurts, and Tua. Here are their Year 2 to 3 Year averages for passing yards per game, per attempt, and then a generic stat like QBR.

Year 2 to Year 3
YPG - Y/A - QBR

Allen - 
193>284 (+91)
6.7>7.9 (+1.2)
49.4>76.6 (+27.2)

Hurts
209>246 (+37)
7.3>8.0 (+0.7)
54.6>68.3 (+13.7)

Tua - 
204>272 (+68)
6.8>8.9 (+2.1)
55.7>70.6 (+14.9)

Average
+65 YPG
+1.3 Y/A
+18.6 QBR

Fields
149>198 (+49)
7.1>7.1 (+/- 0.0)
56.3>44.7 (-11.6)

Fields improved his YPG but not even to the point of the average of the other QBs. The other 3 started with higher averages, so technically any gains from them should've been harder. For Y/A, every QB except Fields saw an improvement. Then the dagger for me is QBR. It takes so many things into account and is truly an objective grade compared to PFF and others. In this case, all 3 of the others improved by no less than 13 pts, with them improving by an average of 18. Fields is down 11 from 2022 (so there is a 29 pt deviation there). 

Now the biggest caveat is, the year ain't over. Fields has 5 games to significantly influence all those numbers, but in order to do that, he needs more games like DEN and WAS. Those were the games we have all been waiting for. Now the next step is doing them consistently. So with 5 games remaining, he needs at least 3 of those type games.

 

My conspiracy theory is that the team has already made the decision, that is why you saw some extremely conservative game plans the last few two weeks. They are going to limit one of Fields negatives, INTs, by not allowing him to throw into high danger areas. I am sure this is them building up trade value for him so when it is all said and done, his INT% is not one of the worst in the league. It looks to be working with no picks in the last two games. I could be wrong, but it just feels that way to me. I would rather see them let him rip it and see what happens.

What I find is its amazing how you have argued for both sides of Justin Fields and have made compelling arguments . Im not sure how you feel? You are probably right on Poles have already made a decision on his future but dont think the coaches are all in on a decision thru poor coaching. I hope for us to win and Justin to do well but know he is flawed. For me I have seen progress but it may not be enough to stay here. On saying that I worry that they pick the Bryce Young and not Stroud when he makes that decision. I think the progress of Justin may be more valuable for wins next year than a raw rookie. Poles needs to win next year and starting over may not achieve that. What ever way he goes will determine him getting fired or a contract extension, I am glad I don't have to to make that decision , I'm wrong a lot. 

[Stinger226]

54 minutes ago, Pixote said:

The problem is, as I see it, Fields' trade value is currently so low that we'd be basically dumping him. Those of you who want to see us trade him, you'd best hope he looks terrific in the last 5 games so that we can get a good enough offer for Poles to consider. BUT.  Wait. If he kicks butt in the last 5, do we want to trade him, or keep him? Gets complicated.

I have faith in Poles to figure it out without my help. LOL

[ASHKUM BEAR]

3 hours ago, adam said:

I think everyone had their hopes up about Justin in Year #3, and due to a wide variety of things, he has not made as high of a leap as others or that most would've expected.

The 3 main comps I have heard for recent QBs that got their true WR1 were Allen, Hurts, and Tua. Here are their Year 2 to 3 Year averages for passing yards per game, per attempt, and then a generic stat like QBR.

Year 2 to Year 3
YPG - Y/A - QBR

Allen - 
193>284 (+91)
6.7>7.9 (+1.2)
49.4>76.6 (+27.2)

Hurts
209>246 (+37)
7.3>8.0 (+0.7)
54.6>68.3 (+13.7)

Tua - 
204>272 (+68)
6.8>8.9 (+2.1)
55.7>70.6 (+14.9)

Average
+65 YPG
+1.3 Y/A
+18.6 QBR

Fields
149>198 (+49)
7.1>7.1 (+/- 0.0)
56.3>44.7 (-11.6)

Fields improved his YPG but not even to the point of the average of the other QBs. The other 3 started with higher averages, so technically any gains from them should've been harder. For Y/A, every QB except Fields saw an improvement. Then the dagger for me is QBR. It takes so many things into account and is truly an objective grade compared to PFF and others. In this case, all 3 of the others improved by no less than 13 pts, with them improving by an average of 18. Fields is down 11 from 2022 (so there is a 29 pt deviation there). 

Now the biggest caveat is, the year ain't over. Fields has 5 games to significantly influence all those numbers, but in order to do that, he needs more games like DEN and WAS. Those were the games we have all been waiting for. Now the next step is doing them consistently. So with 5 games remaining, he needs at least 3 of those type games.

 

My conspiracy theory is that the team has already made the decision, that is why you saw some extremely conservative game plans the last few two weeks. They are going to limit one of Fields negatives, INTs, by not allowing him to throw into high danger areas. I am sure this is them building up trade value for him so when it is all said and done, his INT% is not one of the worst in the league. It looks to be working with no picks in the last two games. I could be wrong, but it just feels that way to me. I would rather see them let him rip it and see what happens.

That smile says:

A) you are my QB

B.) thank God you didn't hurt your trade value

[Stinger226]

10 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

That smile says:

A) you are my QB

B.) thank God you didn't hurt your trade value

I would like think that hug means something but it doesn't. He will do what's best for the Bears, but it may be to bring him back.

[adam]

27 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

What I find is its amazing how you have argued for both sides of Justin Fields and have made compelling arguments . Im not sure how you feel? You are probably right on Poles have already made a decision on his future but dont think the coaches are all in on a decision thru poor coaching. I hope for us to win and Justin to do well but know he is flawed. For me I have seen progress but it may not be enough to stay here. On saying that I worry that they pick the Bryce Young and not Stroud when he makes that decision. I think the progress of Justin may be more valuable for wins next year than a raw rookie. Poles needs to win next year and starting over may not achieve that. What ever way he goes will determine him getting fired or a contract extension, I am glad I don't have to to make that decision , I'm wrong a lot. 

I try to see it from everyone's perspective, including what the team will do.

Personally, I want Fields to succeed and be H1M. That one condition makes this team take a monumental leap next season with 2x 1st rounders, regardless of what Poles does with them (draft 2 blue chippers, draft 1/trade 1 for a vet blue chip + future picks). 

However, as the weeks go on, he is trending towards not being that guy. Very few guys turn it around after 40 starts unless it is a reclamation project like Geno Smith but that is with another team. It happens, but when I think about it from the team's view and Poles' employment status, the only way he can ensure his own status while looking like he is making the right move for the organization is drafting a QB and trading Fields. Can you imagine if he passes on Stroud to keep Fields (Stroud was my #1 over Young), then passes on (Williams/Maye) for Fields only to have Fields be the same guy he has for the last 3 seasons? He would be fired by the deadline next year. 

There is a scenario for Fields though. If Fields balls out these last 5 games, and he ends up with 5-6 really good games out of his last 9 (including 2x for WAS/DEN), he may allow them to go with Plan A: Draft MHJ/Impact Edge or draft one pick and trade one an additional first in 2025+blue chipper. Plan B is to draft a QB and only pick up one blue chipper, but if that QB is better than Fields, it's equal or better (especially considering salary cap).

Coaching is a huge part, the other players are too. I think of it as a car, the driver, the pit crew, the other cars, and the track (Bristol vs Talladega). All the factors impact the outcome of the race, but the driver is ultimately the one who decides 99% of the races. Fields is that driver, and the outcome of a lot of games have been riding on his shoulders. He needs to take over games and put them away with near mistake-free football. If he can do that, he stays.

[adam]

14 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

That smile says:

A) you are my QB

B.) thank God you didn't hurt your trade value

Happy for the kid, happy for the win, sort of a relief after the DET game. Now go beat DET in 2 weeks and Joe Flacco in 3.

[BearFan PHX]

18 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

PHX, the remark you being a transplant was more about being funny and not anything derogatory. As I sit here in 20-ish degree weather I envy all of you who are in warmer climates.  In a few more years when I retire (again) my plan is to to leave Alaska for good.

Oh, yeah, I was just saying please don't think I'm a NYer! lol I lived there way too long. Not a big fan of how it is currently there.

I'll put your quotes here in bold italics, and respond to your points.

Now with regards to your breakdown.  You said every play you watched Justin missed a read.  And you qualified it by saying you only watched the first 10 mins.  I would agree to some level. 

It had been posted here as an example of what a great game JF had, and what I saw was a loss that became a win on one dumb luck blown coverage at the end, after he'd almost given the game away twice in the previous few minutes with fumbles, and hadnt managed a single touchdown all game. That's why I said "Bears win, we all lose" it felt to me like we hadnt grown or accomplished anything on offense, and just possibly pushed our draft pick lower instead.

The defense has been playing much better since we got Sweat. We all knew the roster was short at least one good edge, and the before and after has been night and day.

So feeling that way, I tried to watch the video, and after 10 minutes (4 plays) it felt so backward to me with Daniel praising broken and risky plays that had worked and Fields just didnt pull the trigger, I had to stop. And I posted that I had seen that and in every single one of the four plays I saw - and keep in mind i didnt pick these plays as bad examples, they were posted by someone else as examples of good plays - and I said that on every single play, Fields missed the read.

And of course I always say too that Fields is amazing at broken plays, and in many of those same plays, Fields got the first down in heroic manner. That's why people like him I assume. That's why they are "highlight" plays. It's exciting.

But it's risky, and it's great to have when -plays dont work, receivers are covered, pressure comes. But my thesis all along is that Fields holds the ball, passes the point where the ball should have been thrown as designed, and then has to do something risky - and often succeeds at it! I think that's all just true.

So the question of opinion is whether you can base an offense on that. I say no. Some say yes. Thats all good. I still think the facts on those four plays are facts though. Let's get into it...

Of the "four plays" you watched; I would think he did in fact miss at least one read (the first one).  The others?  Maybe not.  There was something like 50 total plays to analyze and I can safely say (assume) he didn't miss EVERY open player. 

I'd have to see the others on all 22, and I know he didn't miss the many many screen passes. Those are timing plays with no read. He almost threw an INT into a DE's chest on one of them though. So I really do question his processing.

And of course I'm not saying that he did miss every read in the game - this all stems from a one off comment where I said "I watched it for 10 minutes, and every one of the first four plays were examples of what Ive been saying and I couldnt watch any more." Then you challenged the statement, since it was a strong "every one" kind of statement. And I love that. That's specific and based on logical arguments and what makes these boards fun for me.

So I was procrastinating doing something else I was supposed to do, and went down the rabbit hole. And I went back to specifically diagram and describe each play.

Part of what I was looking for in your screenshots was to see what Justin was looking at or having to deal with while he was trying to read the field. Remember the part about him being blitzed nearly '60% of the plays'?  That has to count for something. 

And in each one he has a clean pocket, an open receiver, his head is facing that receiver, and his hips are aligned to that receiver, because they were the first read. Minnesota does blitz a lot, but on those four plays, in the photos you can see all the elements I just wrote above. The pictures have a title on the lower right corner, so tell me in which one he was unable to throw?

And like Chase said to be able to 'make magic' in those situations, should be considered. 

Fields is an awesome broken play QB. I always have said it. If you can add that ability to a guy who can pull the trigger on the intentions of the plays as diagrammed in a play that requires a read, then he would be truly unstoppable. I know that. But Fields' drawback going all the way to draft scouting from his college game is that he doesnt process. He holds the ball too long. He doenst run the offense.

And also Ive been very clear that whether this is enough to have success is an opinion, unlike the facts of those four plays - what to do about it is opinion. I can offer that Fields' style has only won a small number of games, I can say that for 35 starts he has 35 fumbles. I can say that he's not putting up points. But the scrambling is great, elite, there is no doubt.

In fact, the idea that he didn't turn the ball over more in the form of INTs is pretty incredible. 

When he doesnt throw the ball, and runs instead, then he fumbles instead of throwing INTs. 35 games, 35 Fields fumbles.

While being rushed he 'read the field' the best he could and made plays while under some pretty remarkable pressure. 

In the four plays I am talking about he was not under pressure when the receiver was open and the play called for the ball to be thrown. Not once.

For example, that one play where you thought Scott was open and Justin dumped it off to Kmet(?).  I think Chase and AZ both said the same thing I saw.   Scott was a bit further down the field and had a safety trailing him by a few steps.  Justin probably thought (in the .5 seconds he had to analyze it) may have thought that was riskier a throw than was to dump it off to a surer handed Kmet. 

This is a terrible argument, and a huge reach. Scott is as open as any WR could hope to be in the NFL. The defender is not only FIVE yards away, but positioned opposite the angle of the break, so as Scott turns he has inside position as well as a FIVE yard cushion. At his break he is 2 yards past the sticks for what would be a 9 yard completion by stats if he didnt get YAC. Of course he was set to have huge YAC, but even still, a wide open cant wish it to be better situation.

And it was 3rd down. Kmet instead was thrown later, and with a number o fdefenders on top of him. That is no sure 3rd down. More times than not you're punting after not getting the first with that throw.

There was nothing risky about the throw to Scott. It's not even close. The defender was literally FIVE yards off him at the break where Justin is looking right at him. Daniel eveb identifies him as the first read. Then a minute later, says maybe being 2 yards past the sticks is a little deep. Thats crazy talk. Ive never heard anyone say that about an uncontested receiver. Thats a comment for when youve got a defender draped on you and you could have cut in shorter to get better position. But Scott was literally the perfect choice there. Justin just didn't pull the trigger.

To those reading who doubt what Im saying, please go back and look at the screenshots I posted. It's all crystal clear.

Had he thrown that pass (to Scott) and been picked (or missed) we'd be asking why he didn't go for a surer pass.  (To me he's in a catch-22 in those situations).  

We're not talking about a 30 yard route here. Scott was the higher percentage read, not Kmet. Scott was an easy first down, and as the primary read, he was the POINT of the play. Kmet had to drag defenders with another miracle to get there. There was no threat of an INT on that play. He was much more open than receivers usually are when other QBs complete passes.

I gotta say, when we get new coaches, and a new QB who can make reads, youre gonna see that these guys like Kmet and Moore are even better than you thought. Theyve been making first downs by incredible effort that shouldnt have been so hard int he first place. Their heroic efforts and Fields' heroic efforts are masking a huge deficiency in Fields' game.

I get where your frustration has grown with what looks like he will never get over the hump of being able to scan the field.

Yeah this is my worry. 100%

He did more issues with that early on, but I think he's gotten better. 

Oh I think he's regressed. I think he was trying harder earlier in the season, and wasnt able to do it, so now hes playing "less robotic" and "freer" meaning caring even less about the reads, and playing more hero ball.

HIs talent is undeniable. 

Exactly. He is one of the best hero ball players ever. His numbers are better because hes relying on that even more the second half of the season. And that goes along with having regressed at making reads. It's just we dont really see it because after be breaks the play he does amazing things and is often successful at more. It's incredible. Like Superman.

But the debate (and this is the opinion part) is whether you can beat good teams with that style. I say you cant. others can rightfully disagree. But I think this IS the question, and the idea that he is making his reads is a false one.

And what concerns me about getting another QB currently in the college ranks to replace him is I have a hard time finding anyone that has proven themselves to the level Justin did while in college. 

Oh hell yes. I cant tell you which college QBs are going to work out in the NFL. It's a big risk. The only reason Im confident in it is that I feel I know with certainty that JF will never win a Super Bowl in Chicago. That's the only thing I take as known in this, and it drives my decision. I cant tell you the next guy is going ot be the guy were looking for, or whether Bagent will develop and force us to realize how good he is, or whether we will be right back here in a couple years talking abut the next Bears QB.

I know that doesn't mean everything when it comes to making it in the NFL but to me, that proves he can perform in the most challenging of atmospheres.  

Except this isnt draft day 2021. We've seen him in the NFL for three seasons now not performing. I mean the best you can say about JF is what you think he might change into. You cant seriously say that with a record of 8-27 that he has performed.

What you can say is that maybe it wasnt his fault. The coaching, and talent around him werent good enough etc. But you cant say hes done it. It is not proven that he can perform in the most challenging of atmospheres in the NFL at all. Only that you might think he will in the future.

Lastly. there's nothing wrong with wanting to 'defend this hill' if you feel passionate about it.  Like Mongo said, I've 'been there done that'.  I took some barbs for bailing on Trubisky, being a fan of Lovie's and exchanged heat with Jason over olinemen vs skill players. It happens.  I trust you when you say you want Justin to succeed but you want a real strong plan A in place it doesn't work out.

Yeah I cant predict the future, but nothing Ive seen tells me he will get better at processing and reading defenses, and throwing the ball on time or with anticipation. And I fully believe that is a fatal flaw, despite everything else.

But yes of course I dont hate Fields the person. I kinda fell bad for him. He is so talented and seems like a really good kid. He works very hard, hes a good locker room leader. And if he was great, wed be in an amazing position going into next season. Especially not having to use a high pick on QB.

I wish that was true.

But it just seems so painfully obvious to me that he does not have that one necessary skill.

In college the receivers are so open, it's hard to project to the pros. You can say the same thing about Caleb Williams the surefire generational talent! Who knows?!

But too the main tiny point - I still think those four plays all show the exact thing Im talking about in about as stark a contrast as I could imagine. A lot of times things are grey, and it's hard to be sure. But that Scott play for example, which Ill post again below, couldnt be clearer. If you dont throw that ball because a defender is 5 yards away positioned on the wrong side of the break, because its too risky, then you cant throw any pass at all, they would ALL be too risky.

The only receiver I saw more open that that was St Brown on one of the other plays I diagrammed! LOL

But yeah this talk that I dont like Fields, or I want him to fail becaue I need to win an argument or any of that nonsense aint it. I just think the emperor is stark naked and it seems so clear to my eyes.

Like Ive said, you dont see the receivers on the TV coverage as well, watching the game the first time, I tend to follow the ball, so I get how people see Fields running around making plays. But once you go back and take a minute with the all 22, this glaring weakness sticks out on almost every play that has a read, and you start to realize, sadly, that JF has a fatal flaw and there is no evidence so far that he's gonna fix it.

Ill also say that he often looks like he has it beat int he first few plays of the games, when we are in the scripted plays. Justin can spend extra time thinking about them so his processing can seem better, like in Detroit. But once you get past that first drive, it's a lot of holding the ball and broken plays. And Getsy trying to force the ball out with non read plays like screens.

Thanks for reading all of this.

Play 2 to Scott below. At that frame, throw the ball. Look at Fields' hips and head. This is his read. Why isn't he throwing it?

[BearFan PHX]

Oh I should add this too:

As we all agree, JF has some incredible talents, and some areas are lacking. Given that, consider that Chase Daniel doesnt want to be seen as bashing Fields. He probably would like to do his analysis by being a QB guide, and not someone who rests on the negative. He wants to get clicks, and he likely doesnt want to be a traitor to his position unless or until someone is on their way out of the league.

JT OSullivan walks a similar line too. He is always careful to give the benefit of the doubt, and when there are things to praise, that's where he puts his focus.

And there are plenty of sportswriters on both sides of the JF question, just today Im seeing a bunch of articles talking about trading Fields. You can feel the media narrative starting to turn. My bet is in a month I'll seem like I was early on what becomes conventional wisdom?

But whatever anyone thinks, there are plenty of sportswriters and former player commentators on both sides of this, so the argument of authority (an expert thinks X so they must be right over a non expert, which is a classic logical fallacy) doesnt work since there are experts on each side and cant all be right?

[Pixote]

ad nauseam ... 

[Mongo3451]

25 minutes ago, Pixote said:

ad nauseam ... 

My pops would say, "you're looking up a dead goats ass".  ?

[Stinger226]

13 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

My pops would say, "you're looking up a dead goats ass".  ?

I've heard that saying before, my dad came from Croatia . You're not Slavic are you?

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Jalen Hurts looks a lot like JF in this game.  If Philly ever wants to win a superbowl, they need a new QB ?