Draft land

[Stinger226]

The draft is going to be more relevant as the season moves on so might as well keep everything in one thread .

   The biggest prize in this draft is MHJ. We are in a position to draft him.  Where we draft will be key, I think top 3 is guaranteed, our pick at worst top 10. The question will be will Poles try to get another kings ransom with the top pick or use the pick for a QB, MHJ?  I dont think its a mistake either way he goes. If he doesnt rate any QB generational then I think he takes MHJ with his first pick.  no matter who the QB is, MHJ or even a Bowers pick makes them better. Imagine DJ and Harrison on the outside with Kmet and Bowers at TE. OMG 

  Our needs in my opinion are OC, swing T, 3T, edge and a FS. I think Whitehair and Jackson will be gone so FS is a critical need. OC and swing T can be in later rounds. I think he will address some needs in FA.  A lot of Ss and some OCs available , not sure if he would go after a Burns(edge) or Chris Jones (3T) because of cost. He gave a big contract to Sweat, dont think he would load up on the DL with money. So those positions have to be drafted. Progress of Dexter may determine where they draft one. He he needs a QB that has to be figured in. 

So many questions going forward we really have to wait until the end of the season to answer some questions. In the draft I would like to see both OL and DL still  addressed. I think we need a QB prospect , how Fields does in the last 6 games will determined where we draft one. 

[Stinger226]

Might as well put this here.

 

[Mongo3451]

What would you think about Adam separating the threads to a:

 Keep Fields draft.

 and

 New QB draft

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

What would you think about Adam separating the threads to a:

 Keep Fields draft.

 and

 New QB draft

I dont care . I think there is a big divide on here on whether we keep Fields or start over. IF he performs well in the last 6 games, I think he stays. It would allow us to continually building the roster but I would like a QB prospect taken somewhere in the draft. I think Poles has to start winning next year to keep his job. Not sure that happens with a rookie QB. The QBs I like are probably moving into the first round ( Daniels and McCarthy) Carson Beck is a later type pick. He has good size, good accuracy. He only has one year of a sample size but was a highly recruited player.  There will be several prospects taken before him but with development could be a NFL starter. I think someone we could get in a 3rd or 4 th round with upside. 

Until proven differently ( last 6 weeks) I think Poles doubles down with drafting a QB and keeping Fields. 2 yrs of Fields will cost 30 mil, cheap in todays standard and still drafts a prospect to fall back on if Fields fails. He has 2 years to develop. 

[BearFan PHX]

48 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I dont care . I think there is a big divide on here on whether we keep Fields or start over. IF he performs well in the last 6 games, I think he stays. It would allow us to continually building the roster but I would like a QB prospect taken somewhere in the draft. I think Poles has to start winning next year to keep his job. Not sure that happens with a rookie QB. The QBs I like are probably moving into the first round ( Daniels and McCarthy) Carson Beck is a later type pick. He has good size, good accuracy. He only has one year of a sample size but was a highly recruited player.  There will be several prospects taken before him but with development could be a NFL starter. I think someone we could get in a 3rd or 4 th round with upside. 

Until proven differently ( last 6 weeks) I think Poles doubles down with drafting a QB and keeping Fields. 2 yrs of Fields will cost 30 mil, cheap in todays standard and still drafts a prospect to fall back on if Fields fails. He has 2 years to develop. 

I agree with a lot of this, but I think you have to consider the opportunity you have to draft a QB, which you might not have next year or the year after. So if you keep Fields, you have to figure in opportunity costs too.

If you wait and see with Fields, and pass these opportunities, you're pretty much betting that he will be worth $40 Million a year in two years. If you bet right, its a home run. If Fields does eventually become that top 5 guy, then of course the bet paid off, and youre Super Bowl bound.

But if he is just decent or pretty good, then you wasted this window, and passed on getting one of those top QBs.

So the bet isn't just "can Fields get better?" it's also "will he be worth $40+ Million in two years" because if he isnt, then youre back to square one, with no Fields and without 2 top picks in one of the deepest QB drafts in memory.

I dont think throwing a mid round developmental QB is a likely strategy for finding a great one. It has happened, but the odds are low.

So while people may disagree fairly about what Fields will become, it's pretty clear that if you keep him this year, you're putting all your eggs into that basket vs a bunch of other options.

I cant say what Fields would become, all I can say is that keeping him isnt a "wait and see" bet, its functionally an all in on Fields bet. And in that light, I don't have enough faith.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Until proven differently ( last 6 weeks) I think Poles doubles down with drafting a QB and keeping Fields. 2 yrs of Fields will cost 30 mil, cheap in todays standard and still drafts a prospect to fall back on if Fields fails. He has 2 years to develop. 

I’m obviously more in the ‘keep Fields camp’ and this still could work even if they decide to draft another QB next year.  Justin still has one year (after this) on his rookie deal right?  Seems to me he should be pressed to compete for the position next year.  I wouldn’t necessarily want him to assume he’s got the job.  
 

That being said, the QB they draft should not be in the top half of the first round.  If they’re able to trade down and get a later 1st or early second and get McCarthy, I’d be good with that. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

43 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

agree with a lot of this, but I think you have to consider the opportunity you have to draft a QB, which you might not have next year or the year after. So if you keep Fields, you have to figure in opportunity costs too.

If you just wait a few more years you could draft Arch Manning. ?. 
 

And ‘yes’ I have been drinking.  A little Maker’s Mark while I watch the Eagles/Bills game.  ?

[Mongo3451]

41 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I agree with a lot of this, but I think you have to consider the opportunity you have to draft a QB, which you might not have next year or the year after. So if you keep Fields, you have to figure in opportunity costs too.

If you wait and see with Fields, and pass these opportunities, you're pretty much betting that he will be worth $40 Million a year in two years. If you bet right, its a home run. If Fields does eventually become that top 5 guy, then of course the bet paid off, and youre Super Bowl bound.

But if he is just decent or pretty good, then you wasted this window, and passed on getting one of those top QBs.

So the bet isn't just "can Fields get better?" it's also "will he be worth $40+ Million in two years" because if he isnt, then youre back to square one, with no Fields and without 2 top picks in one of the deepest QB drafts in memory.

I dont think throwing a mid round developmental QB is a likely strategy for finding a great one. It has happened, but the odds are low.

So while people may disagree fairly about what Fields will become, it's pretty clear that if you keep him this year, you're putting all your eggs into that basket vs a bunch of other options.

I cant say what Fields would become, all I can say is that keeping him isnt a "wait and see" bet, its functionally an all in on Fields bet. And in that light, I don't have enough faith.

I have always thought that Fields would have to show that he IS the man THIS year.  We can't say, he made progress and if he keeps this trend, he may be top five mentality.  Clocks ticking, so you might as well draft the best QB you can get, because he'll be starting off with a solid foundation.  While you have 5 years of low cost, pay the foundation.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

I have always thought that Fields would have to show that he IS the man THIS year.  We can't say, he made progress and if he keeps this trend, he may be top five mentality.  Clocks ticking, so you might as well draft the best QB you can get, because he'll be starting off with a solid foundation.  While you have 5 years of low cost, pay the foundation.

I think this is right. We put off the #1 pick by one year last year. We are getting lucky and seem to be getting it or something like it again in a year with many QB options.

I dont think you can close the door to those possibilities based on the hope that Fields style of play completely changes and he does things he hasnt done consistently well.

Justin is exciting as hell to watch, but I want a surgeon out there, not a magician. The surgeon calmly dissects the defense, the magician does amazing things that make highlight reels. But how can you think to have your core identity to be that plays will break and your guy will scramble around and make something happen? The whole reason it makes highlights is that it is so implausible. That means that a fair percent of the time, a good defensive line will punish you for it.

If you needed a heart transplant would you want the guy who calmly does it all doay, or someone amazing who keeps somehow miraculously pulling operations through right when they look like the patient is going to die?

I get the excitement, and why people love it. They see him as a hero, defying odds and somehow finding a way to be successful in a storm of adversity. But the thing is, he isnt even doing that. We are losing games. Its not as if hes not out there improvising 35 points a game.

But while my opinion on Fields' future remains just that - only my opinion, I think it is fair to say that keeping Justin for another year is more than just seeing things through - it also costs you a top pick QB and the development of that player. So the decision isn't a free no brainr one year  more to see what hes got - it also costs you the opportunity cost.

And in that light, youre 100% right. THIS was his year to show that and take the job in an undeniable way. And I dont think anyone can say he has done that yet.

[Mongo3451]

18 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Justin is exciting as hell to watch, but I want a surgeon out there, not a magician. The surgeon calmly dissects the defense, the magician does amazing things that make highlight reels.

This!  I love it too, but look at how many times he's come through with it.  Not good. 

What if we draft a top QB and tell Justin he has the choice to stay and fight or leave?  If he stays, you tell him to make us trade the new guy, with the understanding that he has to the boring things right.  We do have that luxury next year.

With the remaining schedule, needs, at least, three heck yeah victories. (With his hand directly in it)

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

This!  I love it too, but look at how many times he's come through with it.  Not good. 

What if we draft a top QB and tell Justin he has the choice to stay and fight or leave?  If he stays, you tell him to make us trade the new guy, with the understanding that he has to the boring things right.  We do have that luxury next year.

With the remaining schedule, needs, at least, three heck yeah victories. (With his hand directly in it)

I dunno, I think whoever you're developing next year as #1 needs the #1 reps, and an offense tailored to what they do best. And there are egos involved too. It seems like it could blow up.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I agree with a lot of this, but I think you have to consider the opportunity you have to draft a QB, which you might not have next year or the year after. So if you keep Fields, you have to figure in opportunity costs too.

If you wait and see with Fields, and pass these opportunities, you're pretty much betting that he will be worth $40 Million a year in two years. If you bet right, its a home run. If Fields does eventually become that top 5 guy, then of course the bet paid off, and youre Super Bowl bound.

But if he is just decent or pretty good, then you wasted this window, and passed on getting one of those top QBs.

So the bet isn't just "can Fields get better?" it's also "will he be worth $40+ Million in two years" because if he isnt, then youre back to square one, with no Fields and without 2 top picks in one of the deepest QB drafts in memory.

I dont think throwing a mid round developmental QB is a likely strategy for finding a great one. It has happened, but the odds are low.

So while people may disagree fairly about what Fields will become, it's pretty clear that if you keep him this year, you're putting all your eggs into that basket vs a bunch of other options.

I cant say what Fields would become, all I can say is that keeping him isnt a "wait and see" bet, its functionally an all in on Fields bet. And in that light, I don't have enough faith.

I agree with a lot of what you say but  there is risk on assuming a QB is the next great thing. Ask the Jets and SF how it turned out for them. I trust Poles to evaluate it right and pick the best path to follow. If he drafts Williams, Im all in because his evaluate is a lot deeper than any tape watching I may do. That's why I want to target a QB also so he doubles down on who succeeds and who fails. Both my be good or both may fail. As you stated before there will be more than 2 QBs drafted in the first round. i think Daniels and McCarthy make in the first , the two I prefer. Not sure how it plays out but I think its mistake to just blow off Fields when you have him for 2 years. Get the Ravens OC Monkin as  a new coach, he knows how to design a game plan around a talented QB. A lot to sort out in the next 6 games.

[Stinger226]

3 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I dunno, I think whoever you're developing next year as #1 needs the #1 reps, and an offense tailored to what they do best. And there are egos involved too. It seems like it could blow up.

Its just when they started paying QBs 50 mil a year, is when they started forcing them to play right away. just as many misses as hits when they do that. The team is close to being built enough to maybe do that. I dont think Justin's ego is to great to not be up to the challenge. 

[BearFan PHX]

58 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Its just when they started paying QBs 50 mil a year, is when they started forcing them to play right away. just as many misses as hits when they do that. The team is close to being built enough to maybe do that. I dont think Justin's ego is to great to not be up to the challenge. 

not necessarily to play right away, but to have shown that they deserve the job after 3 seasons. Youre right that the big payday prohibits 6 year developmental cycles.

As for egos, all elite players have them in that they want to be the starter. Ask a starter to ride the bench and youll get a holdout and force a trade. better to trade during trading season when you have the most suitors, draft picks are available and the price is as high as its gonna get?

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

not necessarily to play right away, but to have shown that they deserve the job after 3 seasons. Youre right that the big payday prohibits 6 year developmental cycles.

As for egos, all elite players have them in that they want to be the starter. Ask a starter to ride the bench and youll get a holdout and force a trade. better to trade during trading season when you have the most suitors, draft picks are available and the price is as high as its gonna get?

In that scenario, you're assuming Fields would be riding the bench over a rookie? The rookie would need time to develop and wouldn't just be handed the job .  Mahomes sat for a year, I don't remember him asking to be traded.

[BearFan PHX]

Youre right. If Fields balls out, its no problem. But then you dont need that first round rookie. Course that's been true all year, but he hasnt done it.

And if Fields plays like he has so far, the good and bad of it, hes not gonna be happy in a competition. So once again youre betting the farm that Fields is gonna be the guy, cuz if he isnt you have unhappy Fields. And then what? So youre not really hedging your bet with one more year, youre doubling down on it.

This already was Fields' year to prove it. He hasnt. Now (this offseason) is the time to trade him while he has some trade value. Not after he fails to beat out a rookie.

Now please understand, I'm not saying that would happen. I'm saying you're betting he will take the job next year, and if you win that bet, then the top pick QB was a missed chance to get a DE or OLT. And if you lose that bet, you lose all trade value for Fields.

And again remember, youre not just betting that Fields will improve, youre betting he will be worth over $40 Million a year, a top 5 QB.

We punted the first round pick last year to give Fields this year. In my opinion, his time is done. Get a second rounder for him, and add a dominant OC to the OL or a new FS with the pick.

I think the Vikings game is gonna make this much clearer. After Detroit showed the league how to contain Fields with a loaded box, the blitz happy Vikings are going to force Fields to beat them with quick hot reads and fast confident throws. It'll be a great test, and I think everything Im saying is gonna be a lot clearer after tomorrow night. It's exactly what's missing in Fields' game. I see 5+ sacks and at least one INT.

[Stinger226]

I think he is on a 7 game run to save his job or not. So far he has a +1 for the first game. All the things you criticized him for , he looked good at against Detroit. If he fails for most of the rest of the games, I will be with you on a new QB. For the Bears , the best situation is him playing well . So when Poles decides which way to go, he can get a higher draft pick for him and draft the best QB option. The difference between us is you already moved on, I am giving him the rest of the season to prove himself.

[Mongo3451]

In the meantime, Ryan Poles sent the death star to Carolina.  How bad can it get for them?  However, I'm concerned about two things.  1) teams sometimes get the emotional gimmick win when replacing a coach.  2) after what Poles did to Carolina, teams will remember and think accordingly when deciding how valuable a trade up is.  That may diminish or recalculate the trade value chart.

[fudgeripple2000]

I've watched enough full games of both quarterbacks to see that chicago will have growing pains with both Maye and Williams.  I look at Stroud and Young.  Stroud has enough talent around him and the right mindset, to succeed.  Let's check back on him in year two.  Young has a good mindset but no talent around him.  Thank you Poles.  Genius move (DJ, Forman).  I am using "mindset" as an umbrella term to cover body language, interviews....  Caleb's mindset scares me.  Both body language and interviews are bad.  He has endorsement money, NIL money...  Meaning he is being rewarded for losing and having a bad mindset.  He is the type to blame linemen, bad route running, coaching staff when he gets to NFL.... aka Kyler Murray.  Ironically enough same college coach.  Maye has more talent but he is 21.  I think it will take him time (years)to get the speed of the NFL. 

With all that being said I am moving more towards holding onto Fields.  We pick up his 5th year.

 

DRAFT- I see us holding onto the 4th pick.  Both arizona and New England aren't showing they can win to finish out season.  I think New england is tanking.

I agree with Mongo that teams will be reticent to trading up or giving the haul we would like.

#1  MHJ

#4 Olu.  If he's gone and no good trade down offers?  I go with Bowers.  I know we have Kmet but Kmet is not the same type of tight end.  He is more inline.  Watch how much bowers goes in motion and lines up in the slot.  He's a weapon.

[AZ54]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

In the meantime, Ryan Poles sent the death star to Carolina.  How bad can it get for them?  However, I'm concerned about two things.  1) teams sometimes get the emotional gimmick win when replacing a coach.  2) after what Poles did to Carolina, teams will remember and think accordingly when deciding how valuable a trade up is.  That may diminish or recalculate the trade value chart.

CJ Stroud proved there was a starting QB available at the top of the draft.  Carolina just chose poorly.  

[AZ54]

Even with his bad games this season Fields easily slots in above Tannehill at $30mil.    $40mil per year would put  him 14th on the list.  That will rank lower after this off-season  

https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback

[BearFan PHX]

5 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think he is on a 7 game run to save his job or not. So far he has a +1 for the first game. All the things you criticized him for , he looked good at against Detroit.

No way. I am talking about calmly staying in the pocket and making fast accurate reads with anticipation. 3 or 5 step drop and release. Against Detroit, he was running around and creating. Receivers werent getting the ball out of their breaks, they were getting it later, perhaps finding a dead spot in a zone and waiting for Justin to find them. And we scored a whopping 16 points. Come on.

Once Fields starts scrambling, that's called a "broken play" - Fields is extremely good at broken plays, and that is not something you purposefully base an offense on. Not if you want to beat the good teams.

Could Fields continue to improve at that and eventually lead us to a 9-8 record and an early playoff exit some season? Certainly. That is his ceiling. That's when everything goes well and you surround him with talent. Is that our goal?

I want a QB.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, fudgeripple2000 said:

I go with Bowers.  I know we have Kmet but Kmet is not the same type of tight end.  He is more inline.  Watch how much bowers goes in motion and lines up in the slot.  He's a weapon.

Watched a highlight reel of Bowers (hadn't really seen him play - hear a lot though) and man is he impressive. They had him line up in several positions, mostly in the slot but even as a RB once or twice and every time he gained yards.  I especially like in one play where he fully sold the blocking he was doing prior to catching a screen pass for a huge gain.  His skills look as though they'll translate to the NFL really well.  

I did read he's had some issues with his ankle and had what they referred to as "tightrope surgery" earlier this year.  It is the same type procedure Tua had when he last played for Alabama and was able to make the National Championship game 4 weeks later.  From the sound of it Georgia is hoping to have Bowers back for the SEC championship game this coming Saturday and only if he's 'feeling 100%'.  

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

No way. I am talking about calmly staying in the pocket and making fast accurate reads with anticipation. 3 or 5 step drop and release. Against Detroit, he was running around and creating. Receivers werent getting the ball out of their breaks, they were getting it later, perhaps finding a dead spot in a zone and waiting for Justin to find them. And we scored a whopping 16 points. Come on.

Once Fields starts scrambling, that's called a "broken play" - Fields is extremely good at broken plays, and that is not something you purposefully base an offense on. Not if you want to beat the good teams.

Could Fields continue to improve at that and eventually lead us to a 9-8 record and an early playoff exit some season? Certainly. That is his ceiling. That's when everything goes well and you surround him with talent. Is that our goal?

I want a QB.

Forget my opinion, Im just a fan but  I can send you many ex QBs analyzing his play that raved about his last game. Chase Daniels, Tim Lewis . JT Sullivan. They were QBs and played in the league . They disagree with you, its not just me.

 

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

CJ Stroud proved there was a starting QB available at the top of the draft.  Carolina just chose poorly.  

 

I have no clue what you are talking about...?