Core Team 2024

[adam]

So looking at the current roster and contracts, the Bears have a very solid core, and look to add 5-6 more high end pieces to it this offseason. If they trade a top pick, it will be even more.

Right now I am going to assume they pick up 5 impact players:

• Impact draft picks: 3 (2x 1st rounders, 3rd rounder)
• Expected bigger FA acquisitions: 2

So if the Bears run it back with Fields on his 4th year, here is where I think they need to upgrade or fill in the core of the team (top 35). The bottom 20 of the roster are very fluid, and would be filled with 4th Round to UDFA and 1-year vet deals.

On offense, Center, WR2/3, and TE2 are the most glaring needs. Even if they extend Mooney, he looks more like a WR3 nowadays. Now that the Bears signed Kmet to a deal, they need a rookie to backfill him in 3-4 years. Match a vet contract with a rookie deal. Center may be the biggest need on the team though.

Offense:

Fields/Bagent
Herbert/Foreman/Johnson
Kmet/FA or Rookie 
Jones, Jenkins, Patrick/FA or Rookie, Davis, Wright
Moore, FA or Rookie, Scott, ESB

If the Bears extend Johnson, the defense looks intact for next year minus Edge and FS. Only two holes really. 

Defense:

Sweat, Billings/Pickens, Dexter, Walker/FA or Rookie
Edmunds, Edwards, Sanborn, Sewell
Johnson, Stevenson/Smith, Gordon, Brisker, FA or Rookie

Expected cuts and cap savings:
Jackson - $12.5M (has never been the same dude since injury in late 2018 really), the other option here is to restructure his deal
Whitehair - $9.1M (dude has been a warrior in the trenches and one of the longest tenured Bears, but he is not worth $13.5M)

$82.4M + $21.6 = $104M (biggest cap space in NFL currently is $100M - TEN). Cutting these two would give the Bears the most with that roster above. That looks really solid. They could extend guys like Johnson, Santos, Edwards, and even consider Mooney while still signing 2-3 impact FAs.

Other possible cuts:
DeMarcus Walker - $4.5M (has been serviceable, but if you need the cap space to bring a guy like Chase Young in to pair with Sweat, you cut Walker for the roster spot and cap savings)
Travis Homer - $1.9M (has hardly played, has been horrible on offense and below average on ST, PFF has him as the worst player on the team - 37.9 grade)
Velus Jones - $918K - It is not a huge cap savings, but it would cover a vet minimum deal and roster spot. This guy is terrible at just about everything but running straight and photo bombing teammates inadvertently. 
 

The worst 3 players on offense according to PFF are Homer, Whitehair, and Tonyan, and Blackwell, Robinson, and Ngakoue on defense. Homer, Whitehair, and Robinson are the only 3 under contract for 2024. Cutting the fat at the bottom and adding at the top to push the depth charts down is the best path to sustained success. If they went into 2024 without those 6 they would raise their floor considerably. 

[Mongo3451]

I like what I see from the core.  When Poles started the rebuild, we assessed that he had 5-6 blue chip players on the team.  I'm seeing that we at 9-10.

If we go by the Polian model, he says 12-13, depending on the QB.  That leaves us with a deficit of 4 blue chippers with Justin as our QB.

The easiest draft path:

Marvin Jr, Bowers and Zach Frazier(C) are rated as good in their class.  That can be done easily with trading back.  After that, a 3T and safety mat get you over the top.

[Stinger226]

19 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I like what I see from the core.  When Poles started the rebuild, we assessed that he had 5-6 blue chip players on the team.  I'm seeing that we at 9-10.

If we go by the Polian model, he says 12-13, depending on the QB.  That leaves us with a deficit of 4 blue chippers with Justin as our QB.

The easiest draft path:

Marvin Jr, Bowers and Zach Frazier(C) are rated as good in their class.  That can be done easily with trading back.  After that, a 3T and safety mat get you over the top.

Those are all good names. Walker is one of our better lineman and I think he should stay. Jones, Green and Yannick are gone. We cant gut the DL totally that will be regression.

[Mongo3451]

54 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Those are all good names. Walker is one of our better lineman and I think he should stay. Jones, Green and Yannick are gone. We cant gut the DL totally that will be regression.

Definitely keep the quality depth.

[BearFan PHX]

I definitely agree that Poles has done a lot for this roster. I am very optimistic about our future next year.

I know we may have disagreements about QB and Coaching, and those are the two most significant pieces of the puzzle, but those things aside, looking at the rest of the roster, we had a VERY good draft last year, and I expect another good offseason this year too.

I dont know who Warren might have in mind, but on his own merit at least, Poles deserves to stay and I think he's done a great job.

I think our main needs are QB, OC, FS, WR, Edge, TE - no reason to think we cant address all of them this offseason and be a playoff team next year, even if we have a young QB.

I am looking forward to resolution on the QB and coach thing so we are all on the same page again here. With new blood you will find me optimistic and patient as it takes time for players to grow. We will all be wanting the same thing then, and I am looking forward to that.

But we can already agree that there are a lot of pieces here on our roster already, and you can see the defense, and offensive line are coming together nicely.

Also, even in a year with not so much offense, you can easily see that DJ Moore is a STUD. and Kmet is growing too. If we can count on Jenkins to stay healthy he looks like a pro bowler, and I think Wright is already playing at that level. Davis is a mauler, and Jones continues to grow. Foreman is great too, and we probably have the best "backup" RBs in the league. Johnson is gonna be really good too, at least in the rotation.

On defense it's great to see how well all the rookies are doing. Dexter is looking better every game. I was worried about his slow get off, but I see that getting better every game, to the point where I dont see it at all anymore. Amazing. He is extremely powerful, and will only get better. Both corners are playing well for rookies - remember Gordon and Brisker last year - it took half a season for the light to come on. Now they are a strength.

And Edwards is killing it, and I still think Edmunds is gonna be amazing too - I dont love how we are using him, but we saw a taste of his freakish athleticism and speed this past week too.

Sweat is one of the best players on the team. The defensive improvement can be traced directly to the week we got him. With some kind of pass rush to make QBs throw the ball at least in tempo, the secondary suddenly looks much better.

THere are other good players too, and special teams etc.

All this to say that i think if we fix a couple big problems, we are suddenly going to be a lot better with a trajectory to be a contender after that.

I hope that i can rejoin our community here in agreement when that all happens.

[Bears4Ever_34]

Taking the quarterback out of the equation, offensively, their biggest need right now is at center. Defensively, it's hard to say until I know who the coach is going to be. Right now, they need a 3T, but if they hire somebody else and switch to a 3-4 scheme, now you don't need a 3T anymore and maybe you start scouting OLB's or 5T DE's.

Some other areas I'd like to see them address are a move TE and an eventual replacement to Eddie Jackson at FS.

 

[BearFan PHX]

23 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Taking the quarterback out of the equation, offensively, their biggest need right now is at center. Defensively, it's hard to say until I know who the coach is going to be. Right now, they need a 3T, but if they hire somebody else and switch to a 3-4 scheme, now you don't need a 3T anymore and maybe you start scouting OLB's or 5T DE's.

Some other areas I'd like to see them address are a move TE and an eventual replacement to Eddie Jackson at FS.

 

Im kinda thinking that Dexter will be good at 3T, but if someone better comes in, thats only good for the team, and if they are as good, that builds up the rotation.

Also I think Eddie Jackson is gone sooner than that, and we will replace him this year - possibly a good target for Free Agency, even though i havent looked at a list of who is available.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Taking the quarterback out of the equation, offensively, their biggest need right now is at center. Defensively, it's hard to say until I know who the coach is going to be. Right now, they need a 3T, but if they hire somebody else and switch to a 3-4 scheme, now you don't need a 3T anymore and maybe you start scouting OLB's or 5T DE's.

Some other areas I'd like to see them address are a move TE and an eventual replacement to Eddie Jackson at FS.

 

If they bring someone else in , it wont be someone that wants to change the defense to a 3-4. It will find regression in building a defense and then have to redo the defense again. they will bring in a like mind.

[adam]

Anyone have concerns about Poles' teams' evaluation of college WRs? He now has drafted Velus Jones and Tyler Scott in back to back drafts. Velus is clearly not an NFL WR.

Scott is 17th for rookie WRs in yards. WRs that were drafted after him with more production include: Puka Nacua (leads all rookies), Demario Douglas 36-410, Dontayvion Wicks 20-331, and Trey Palmer 25-227. Scott has 10-81 yards on 20 targets (50% catch rate), 1 drop, and 1 fumble lost. 

I will give Scott another year, as he was a 4th rounder, but he really hasn't shown any specific trait or area of the game that he is good in.

If Poles went WR instead of Pickens at the first pick in the 3rd, he could've had Tank Dell (47-709), Josh Downs (48-566), Michael Wilson (28-435), or Jalin Hyatt (17-330). All of these guys were in our mock drafts around that pick before the draft.

A funny connection between Jones and Scott. They both have been on the Adam Rank Podcast in their rookie years. So is this a Rank Curse?

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Anyone have concerns about Poles' teams' evaluation of college WRs? He now has drafted Velus Jones and Tyler Scott in back to back drafts. Velus is clearly not an NFL WR.

Scott is 17th for rookie WRs in yards. WRs that were drafted after him with more production include: Puka Nacua (leads all rookies), Demario Douglas 36-410, Dontayvion Wicks 20-331, and Trey Palmer 25-227. Scott has 10-81 yards on 20 targets (50% catch rate), 1 drop, and 1 fumble lost. 

I will give Scott another year, as he was a 4th rounder, but he really hasn't shown any specific trait or area of the game that he is good in.

If Poles went WR instead of Pickens at the first pick in the 3rd, he could've had Tank Dell (47-709), Josh Downs (48-566), Michael Wilson (28-435), or Jalin Hyatt (17-330). All of these guys were in our mock drafts around that pick before the draft.

A funny connection between Jones and Scott. They both have been on the Adam Rank Podcast in their rookie years. So is this a Rank Curse?

Jones is a clear bust but not sure you can say that on Tyler just yet. Some take time to develop. 

[adam]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Jones is a clear bust but not sure you can say that on Tyler just yet. Some take time to develop. 

Like I said, Scott gets another year at least, but he is not trending in the right direction. His snap counts went from 13 in Week 1 to 40 in Weeks 7 and 9. Then in Week 10, he dropped to 28, then 27, then all the way down to 12 in Week 12. Week 11 was the Detroit game where he fumbled and misplayed that deep ball. Getting your snaps cut in more than half feels like a demotion/punishment. Scott didn't even have a single target in Week 12. Prior to Week 12, Scott had at least 2 targets per game in 7 games. With only 12 snaps, he is near the healthy scratch area.

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

17 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Taking the quarterback out of the equation, offensively, their biggest need right now is at center. Defensively, it's hard to say until I know who the coach is going to be. Right now, they need a 3T, but if they hire somebody else and switch to a 3-4 scheme, now you don't need a 3T anymore and maybe you start scouting OLB's or 5T DE's.

Some other areas I'd like to see them address are a move TE and an eventual replacement to Eddie Jackson at FS.

 

Spot on - I think on offense center and wideout are two biggest priorities. I want another athletic guy who can emerge as a 1 to go with Moore.

On defense - I want one more pass rush on the dline and an upgrade at safety for the aging Eddie Jackson. 
 

Those are my top 4 needs - excluding qb. All of those needs can absolutely be filled this offseason. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I will also state I am all in on Harbaugh as the next coach. And if it isn’t Caleb Williams, McCarthy is who I am taking at QB.