Week 14 Official Game Thread - DET @ CHI, SUN, 12/10, Noon, CHI +3, O/U 42

[adam]

A 9-3 team is playing at a 4-8 team and is only favored by 3? A 5-win disparity and only a 3 point line is pretty interesting.

Vegas really thinks this game is going to be close. The Bears couldn't win with a +3 turnover margin and double the TOP, so if they want to win this game they more than likely are going to have to do it without that large of a turnover margin and TOP.

DET ended up with more total yards, 8-11 on 3rd Downs, a 5.7 yards per play, so they were way more efficient. Montgomery can't average 6.3 yards a carry and they need to shutdown St. Brown. He always seems to burn the Bears. LaPorta was huge this week but only had 3-18 against the Bears. 

Of all the games to this point in the Flus era, this one has the most on the line for the Bears. It is either going to show that the last game was a fluke or it was real progress. It will be at home against a Division opponent (the Bears have yet to win against a division foe at home under Flus). They will be coming off the bye, and the team should be the healthiest it has been in any other week this season. Fields got two more weeks to heal that thumb. A lot is on the line for Fields, if he has a great game, it will boost his chances significantly, but if he has a stinker or multiple turnovers, it will probably be the game that decides his fate for 2024 and beyond. 

The Lions have had a multiple game Division lead for most of the season. With a loss and MIN or GB win, that lead is down to one game, with multiple division games left. 

 

I am going Bears 27-20 in an upset. The Bears held DET to 14 pts for 57 minutes, then allowed 17 in 3 minutes. I think they can do it again, but this time close them out.

[Stinger226]

If i remember doesnt Goff play bad in cold weather? just saying, he's not at home and it will be cold. 

[adam]

5 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

If i remember doesnt Goff play bad in cold weather? just saying, he's not at home and it will be cold. 

Me checking splits now.

[adam]

Oh wow, Goff is terrible in the cold.

40F or below: 7 games, 65.8 QB Rating, 53.7% Comp, 194 yds/g, 6.0 Y/A, 6 TD, 8 INT for his career. 

So QB Rating down almost 30 from his average, Comp% down 11 pct, yds/g down 66 yds, and for his career he has a 175 TD to 78 INT ratio, so for him to be 6 and 8 is a huge drop off for both sides, down to less than 1 TD per game and more than 1 INT per game. 

 

[adam]

Sunday weather:

Rain and snow transitioning to snow showers in the afternoon. Temps in the mid 30s with winds 15-25mph. Weather will be a factor.

[adam]

The moon will be at waning gibbous, which favors the Bears by 3.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

8 minutes ago, adam said:

down to less than 1 TD per game and more than 1 INT per game.

And he had three INTs the last game we played him.  He was home, in a dome. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

7 minutes ago, adam said:

The moon will be at waning gibbous, which favors the Bears by 3.

 

Not the curse of the ‘waning gibbous’ again?!?  (Does it matter if it’s waning or waxing?  Wax on, wax off?)  

[Stinger226]

Well I know a lady that can perform voodoo. I can contact her tomorrow, if you think it will help. 

[adam]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Not the curse of the ‘waning gibbous’ again?!?  (Does it matter if it’s waning or waxing?  Wax on, wax off?)  

That's hilarious, I made that crap up lol. It will actually be Waning Crescent on the 10th.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Well I know a lady that can perform voodoo. I can contact her tomorrow, if you think it will help. 

Yes, absolutely, make a lifesize voodoo doll of Goff, and on every passing play, you have to jump on the doll, basically sack the doll, even teabag if you have to. The Bears need all the help they can get from the universe. I will be playing binaural beats on every Lions 3rd Down to distract them. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

4 hours ago, adam said:

That's hilarious, I made that crap up lol. It will actually be Waning Crescent on the 10th.

My neighbor (who is a Packers fan) was the one that told me and our neighbor across the street (a Detroit fan) about the "waning gibbious' curse when they played each other last.

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, adam said:

The moon will be at waning gibbous, which favors the Bears by 3.

 

ahahaha

[adam]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

My neighbor (who is a Packers fan) was the one that told me and our neighbor across the street (a Detroit fan) about the "waning gibbious' curse when they played each other last.

that's so funny, I just randomly thought about the moon after I looked into the weather. I have no clue that curse existed, but unlike that lady on the plane, that mother-f'er is real!

[BearFan PHX]

lol

[adam]

Supposedly the Lions have some issues in the secondary AND their starting Center Ragnow may be out. That would make them slide their G to C and they would have a backup Guard in. So two potential vulnerable positions on the road. 

The Lions won't have CJ Gardner-Johnson (CB), Alim McNeill (DT), and more than likely Ragnow (C) for this game. Ragnow is considered one of the best Centers in the league, so there will be a drop off there. When the move Glasgow in to C, that makes them start a backup G where there is another drop off. The Bears interior should be able to get some pressures. 

I didn't know this but McNeill is legit, was the 2nd highest graded defender in PFF. CJGJ was 8th. If those two were on the Bears, they would be the 2nd highest graded player and the 3rd. So those are two huge losses that the Bears will not face this weekend.

While the Bears come in the healthiest they have been all season, including Week 1. 

With all these things going for the Bears, there are zero excuses from top down, Flus, Getsy, Fields, Chris Morgan, and the rest of the players. If you can't beat a team at home, off a bye, with a health and rest advantage, to a team you basically dominated for 56 minutes, then the outcome will be a true reflection of who you are. 

Fields thumb should basically be near if not 100% at this point. He will get a lesser DLine and Secondary against him. If there ever was a game, it's this one. 

Bears by 12!

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Supposedly the Lions have some issues in the secondary AND their starting Center Ragnow may be out. That would make them slide their G to C and they would have a backup Guard in. So two potential vulnerable positions on the road. 

The Lions won't have CJ Gardner-Johnson (CB), Alim McNeill (DT), and more than likely Ragnow (C) for this game. Ragnow is considered one of the best Centers in the league, so there will be a drop off there. When the move Glasgow in to C, that makes them start a backup G where there is another drop off. The Bears interior should be able to get some pressures. 

I didn't know this but McNeill is legit, was the 2nd highest graded defender in PFF. CJGJ was 8th. If those two were on the Bears, they would be the 2nd highest graded player and the 3rd. So those are two huge losses that the Bears will not face this weekend.

While the Bears come in the healthiest they have been all season, including Week 1. 

With all these things going for the Bears, there are zero excuses from top down, Flus, Getsy, Fields, Chris Morgan, and the rest of the players. If you can't beat a team at home, off a bye, with a health and rest advantage, to a team you basically dominated for 56 minutes, then the outcome will be a true reflection of who you are. 

Fields thumb should basically be near if not 100% at this point. He will get a lesser DLine and Secondary against him. If there ever was a game, it's this one. 

Bears by 12!

I hope they come out firing and can capitalize on the way they started from their last game.  I will be at this game cheering them.

[adam]

9 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I hope they come out firing and can capitalize on the way they started from their last game.  I will be at this game cheering them.

Oh awesome, they have to win if you are there representing TalkBears.com. 

Wave to the camera, and dress warm!

[ASHKUM BEAR]

4 hours ago, adam said:

Oh awesome, they have to win if you are there representing TalkBears.com. 

Wave to the camera, and dress warm!

I will be spending most of the time going the bathroom, getting another round of drinks and watching 7-10 minutes of the game but always represent.  It is more entertainment with good friends then connecting with the game but we have caught some great moments over the last 20 some years of going once or twice.

[adam]

8 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I will be spending most of the time going the bathroom, getting another round of drinks and watching 7-10 minutes of the game but always represent.  It is more entertainment with good friends then connecting with the game but we have caught some great moments over the last 20 some years of going once or twice.

Good plan, and that's awesome. Have fun, and drink one for me!

[Stinger226]

8 hours ago, adam said:

Good plan, and that's awesome. Have fun, and drink one for me!

At 71 the ingame experience isnt as appealing . I had season tickets for 2 years, many years ago during Payton's career and loved the ingame. I would go to 6 games a year but tried to avoid the cold ones.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

5 hours ago, adam said:

Good plan, and that's awesome. Have fun, and drink one for me!

Thanks, will do ?

[adam]

It looks like St. Brown is out, and Velus and Scott are both questionable. I hope Velus doesn't play. Check this out: Since last season, when Velus gets a rush, target, KR, or PR, the Bears are 2-16 and lost their first 14 games when one of those occurred. They are 5-6 when he doesn't touch the ball or is targeted (or is inactive). Just like Claypool, cut this guy already.

 

[BearFan PHX]

8 minutes ago, adam said:

It looks like St. Brown is out, and Velus and Scott are both questionable. I hope Velus doesn't play. Check this out: Since last season, when Velus gets a rush, target, KR, or PR, the Bears are 2-16 and lost their first 14 games when one of those occurred. They are 5-6 when he doesn't touch the ball or is targeted (or is inactive). Just like Claypool, cut this guy already.

 

Velus is a disaster.

I saw some film from camp this year - someone was working with him on catching punts. They were telling him "when the punter is right footed, the ball fades to the right, when the punter is left footed, it fades to the left." And Velus was like repeating it, trying to memorize "right = right" and "left = left." Seriously. And this isn't his first year catching punts either.

I think he might be a big dummy.

[adam]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Velus is a disaster.

I saw some film from camp this year - someone was working with him on catching punts. They were telling him "when the punter is right footed, the ball fades to the right, when the punter is left footed, it fades to the left." And Velus was like repeating it, trying to memorize "right = right" and "left = left." Seriously. And this isn't his first year catching punts either.

I think he might be a big dummy.

I still have NO clue what Poles saw in Velus Jones, I think everyone's mocks had Cordale Flott (CB) in that round. For some reason, the sim drafts always put him in mine. The craziest thing, Velus and Cordale are cousins. Small world, lol.