QB Daniels vs Williams..

[AZ54]

11 hours ago, adam said:

Omaha, it is very interesting because you have to weigh their own performance, the quality of their teammates, coaches, and opponents, then figure out what projects best to the NFL. For Daniels, he had an incredible season, and he should be considered in the top group of QBs. I am sure as the offseason goes along, combine, pro day, etc, he will slide up the chart. 

I always look at different ways to figure out who can project to an NFL QB AND how long that will take. Looking at college passing attempts (equate to experience), here are college attempts and pro attempts for all the main QBs over the last few years.

In this list below, the * is the number of seasons with a QBR over 60.0. There is a huge clump of QBs that had over 1000 passing attempts in college to Mahomes in the 1300's, then even after him, you have Purdy, Goff, Mayfield, and Browning. Goff and Mayfield are pretty well established QBs, you kind of know what you got (their floors and ceilings are defined). Purdy is well on his way, and even Browning has filled in for Burrow with better numbers, but the jury is still out on him. 

For Fields, he was in the high risk area coming out with only 618 passing attempts. The only QB that has succeeded for more than one season with fewer passing attempts is Kyler Murray (2x QBR seasons). Mac Jones and Trubisky are like clones, projecting very similarly.

What I find interesting is Fields still has less live game attempts than Mac Jones (started with less), Zach Wilson (didn't play that much), Sam Howell (drafted later), Jordan Love (just started this season), Daniel Jones (always hurt), Desmond Ridder, Brock Purdy, Jake Browning, Mike Penix, Kenny Pickett, and Bo Nix. Every rep is development. So the jury is still out on him, though he is getting close to those 1600 reps. By then, they are who they are.

Passing Attempts College+Pros

High Risk/Small Sample Size
T. Lance 318 (+102)=420
A. Richardson 393 (+84)=477
D. Mills 438 (+880)=1318
K. Murray 519 (+2140)=2659**
M. Jones 556 (+1308)=1864
M. Trubisky 572 (+1872)=2444*   [Did the Bears really do this back to back?]
J. Fields 618 (+883)=1501  [Did the Bears really do this back to back?]
J. Allen 649 (+3056)=3705****
T. Tagovailoa 684 (+1536)=2220*
W. Levis 738 (+249)=987
-------------------
Min. Eval 800-1000 Attempts
C. Stroud 830 (+441)=1271
Z. Wilson 837 (+993)=1830
J. Burrow 945 (+1895)=2840**
B. Young 949 (+441)=1390
D. Maye 952
-------------------
Projectable Range 1000-1600 Attempts
J. Hurts 1047 (+1501)=2548*
L. Jackson 1086 (+2056)=3142****
C. Williams 1099
S. Howell 1117 (+554)=1671
J. Love 1125 (+569)=1694
T. Lawrence 1138 (+1678)=2816*
D. Prescott 1169 (+3767)=4936*****
D. Watson 1207 (+2089)=3296***
D. Jones 1275 (+1900)=3175*
J. Herbert 1293 (+2422)=3715****
D. Ridder 1304 (+469)=1773
P. Mahomes 1349 (+3517)=4866******
J. Daniels 1438
B. Purdy 1467 (+554)=2021*
J. Browning 1484 (+144)=1628
B. Mayfield 1497 (+2725)=4223*
J. Goff 1569 (+4001)=5570**
M. Penix 1596
--------------------
Hard to Adapt 1600+ (can they improve from here?)
K. Pickett 1674 (+713)=2387
B. Nix 1901

Just curious... Got numbers on Bagent?  

[Stinger226]

Evaluations of QBs always has its up and down side and Poles has totally been silent on what he's going to do. He did say a QB would have to blow him away to drat him. So, if he does draft one high, I suspect he will be sold on him. I cant remember, did Cutler get this type of traffic when we traded for him? Its amazing the mileage this subject has gotten, not only on a local level but nationally also. 

[adam]

10 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Just curious... Got numbers on Bagent?  

He has 2040 (+143)=2183

So he was in the range of QBs that it might be difficult to change his habits, you kinda got what you got.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Evaluations of QBs always has its up and down side and Poles has totally been silent on what he's going to do. He did say a QB would have to blow him away to drat him. So, if he does draft one high, I suspect he will be sold on him. I cant remember, did Cutler get this type of traffic when we traded for him? Its amazing the mileage this subject has gotten, not only on a local level but nationally also. 

There is definitely no crystal ball, and comes down to a lot of eyes and opinions.

For Cutler, there was a lot of hype as he was coming off a Pro Bowl season. 

[adam]

 

[Mongo3451]

Was listening to ESPN 1000 yesterday.  A guy called in and said his brother was an NFL agent.  He claims the Fields decision has been made and that he'll be on the trading block.  Jurko didn't seem comfortable with the call and made no comment.  The dude dropped a lot of names.  Sounded like a drunken rant.  Y'all can replay it on the app.  I was on there too...

[adam]

7 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Was listening to ESPN 1000 yesterday.  A guy called in and said his brother was an NFL agent.  He claims the Fields decision has been made and that he'll be on the trading block.  Jurko didn't seem comfortable with the call and made no comment.  The dude dropped a lot of names.  Sounded like a drunken rant.  Y'all can replay it on the app.  I was on there too...

You were on there? What did you ask/say? 

[Mongo3451]

Just now, adam said:

You were on there? What did you ask/say? 

My question, because I hadn't heard the scenario; would they consider keeping the coaching staff together while dumping Fields? (Suggesting it would be a ready built situation for a new QB). He was like most of us; new QB, new coaches.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

My question, because I hadn't heard the scenario; would they consider keeping the coaching staff together while dumping Fields? (Suggesting it would be a ready built situation for a new QB). He was like most of us; new QB, new coaches.

I don't think I support keeping coaching staff and dropping a new QB. The one thing I will say - I think the HC more than anything has to be a leader. The HC isn't about being the scheme guy - he has to be the guy that galvanizes the unit together and has the coaches on the same page, etc.  Ideally they bring a scheme to it - but the most important trait to success for an HC is leadership (it is why so many bright OC / DC's fail as HC's).  

Eberflus as a leader - actually seems pretty decent. His team plays hard and his player(s) seem to like him.  But If we draft a QB - we can't be a year from now going, oh god, the coach isnt' right and be making that change, so if you trade Fields and draft a QB - you need to reset the coach clock to align with the QB clock.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Here is a wildcard - lets assume Bienemy doesn't get a HC gig. Washington moves on from him.  Poles has a connection via the KC tie - if Bears stick with Fields - I could see a scenario where Flus and Bienemy connect.  To me that is probably my ideal partnership if we stick with Fields.  

If we move on - than I'm all in on Harbaugh if they can. What do I care if the Bears have to pay him 20M - not my money LOL.  He's best coach on the potential market. To be honest - I'd also be okay with Bill B (as much as I think he's overrated) and Mike Tomlin if they were available too. I'd go Tomlin over Bill.  The reason I say Bill - I think he is going to be extremely motivated if Pats move on from him and probably a change of scenery will refresh him a ton.  

[Stinger226]

No GM is going to make his decision known until draft time, let alone with 3 weeks left in the season. It would give him less trade value if he does. I see him more praising him for obvious reasons. So many people have inside information to then be wrong. I think Poles is smart.

[Pixote]

2 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

... we can't be a year from now going, oh god, the coach isnt' right and be making that change, so if you trade Fields and draft a QB - you need to reset the coach clock to align with the QB clock.  

And pray we are not saying the exact same thing a year after introducing a new HC.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Just now, Pixote said:

And pray we are not saying the exact same thing a year after introducing a new HC.

Very true.  

[Stinger226]

3 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I don't think I support keeping coaching staff and dropping a new QB. The one thing I will say - I think the HC more than anything has to be a leader. The HC isn't about being the scheme guy - he has to be the guy that galvanizes the unit together and has the coaches on the same page, etc.  Ideally they bring a scheme to it - but the most important trait to success for an HC is leadership (it is why so many bright OC / DC's fail as HC's).  

Eberflus as a leader - actually seems pretty decent. His team plays hard and his player(s) seem to like him.  But If we draft a QB - we can't be a year from now going, oh god, the coach isnt' right and be making that change, so if you trade Fields and draft a QB - you need to reset the coach clock to align with the QB clock.  

I think it's every one stays or everyone goes. The only other scenario is get rid of Gresy and Flus stays, no matter what he does at QB. For Poles is an admission that his plan didn't work and that reflects back at him.He will probably give Flus one more yr.

[Stinger226]

2 minutes ago, Pixote said:

And pray we are not saying the exact same thing a year after introducing a new HC.

The fans will give him 2 yrs to align with Poles contract. If fails, everyone is fired.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Just now, Stinger226 said:

I think it's every one stays or everyone goes. The only other scenario is get rid of Gresy and Flus stays, no matter what he does at QB. For Poles is an admission that his plan didn't work and that reflects back at him.He will probably give Flus one more yr.

If Fields stays - I could see a scenario where Flus is here and Getsy goes. I know people have said - why would anyone take that job.  I go back to - this is not taking an OC job where you are working with an unskilled QB or a QB who has attitude issues. You are also taking a job on a team that actually has talent and weapon(s). So if you are able to step in and turn momentum favorable - the ability for that OC to go onto bigger and better things is huge.  For example - Bienemy comes here and Fields makes instant growth - that is huge for him.  I'm not saying the list of potential OC candidates will be LONG - but I think for an OC looking to make a jump to a HC rank - than there would be some intrigue to this OC job.

Now if you are an OC looking to make a name as an OC - might be harder to find that person unless it is through a strong connection.  Because why not align yourself to one of the many open positions where you likely have a few years.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

5 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

The fans will give him 2 yrs to align with Poles contract. If fails, everyone is fired.

We really do need to find stability, because constant turnover makes LT success so hard.  When you change schemes / systems / front offices - you end up turning over the roster more and essentially punting on talent. You do it multiple times and it is multiple resets - so getting it right becomes so much harder cause you are constantly starting in a hole.  

Sometimes I wonder - is the actual answer forward that teams should be MORE patient vs. less (the recent trend has been less) when it comes to coaches, especially first time coaches.  Just because they don't win out of the gate - doesn't mean they are a bad coach.  How is the underlying process they are following working or not working.  With that said - all of it gets hard - because culture is so impacted by win(s) and loss(es).  The more you looser - the harder over time to maintain it.  

By all accounts - the Bears have a pretty good lockeroom, despite the losses. This may benefit from them being such a young team - so guys just get along and hang out a bit more than if you were a more veteran laden team.  But it seems evident by all the quotes from players - the team generally seems to get along well and you have guys wanting to be here. Now if you can't keep momentum forward - that will change.  If next year this team post a losing record under Flus - I think at that point - the players would be turning.  If they keep improving though - than you actually start to have a culture and identity.  

[BearFan PHX]

5 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

We really do need to find stability, because constant turnover makes LT success so hard.  When you change schemes / systems / front offices - you end up turning over the roster more and essentially punting on talent. You do it multiple times and it is multiple resets - so getting it right becomes so much harder cause you are constantly starting in a hole.  

Sometimes I wonder - is the actual answer forward that teams should be MORE patient vs. less (the recent trend has been less) when it comes to coaches, especially first time coaches.  Just because they don't win out of the gate - doesn't mean they are a bad coach.  How is the underlying process they are following working or not working.  With that said - all of it gets hard - because culture is so impacted by win(s) and loss(es).  The more you looser - the harder over time to maintain it.  

By all accounts - the Bears have a pretty good lockeroom, despite the losses. This may benefit from them being such a young team - so guys just get along and hang out a bit more than if you were a more veteran laden team.  But it seems evident by all the quotes from players - the team generally seems to get along well and you have guys wanting to be here. Now if you can't keep momentum forward - that will change.  If next year this team post a losing record under Flus - I think at that point - the players would be turning.  If they keep improving though - than you actually start to have a culture and identity.  

I suppose the counter argument would be that Poles drafted and acquired so many players of good moral character that the locker room stays tight, no matter who the coach is? Or look at it in the converse - if we'd taken Jalen Carter (and players like him) would they have quit on Eberflus?

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Just now, BearFan PHX said:

I suppose the counter argument would be that Poles drafted and acquired so many players of good moral character that the locker room stays tight, no matter who the coach is? Or look at it in the converse - if we'd taken Jalen Carter (and players like him) would they have quit on Eberflus?

If we took Pickens - I think he would have quit on anyone.  Jalen, I don't know - I am going to guess he would have been fine.  I get the sense that the players respect Flus.  I do think Poles has done a good job in terms of how he has built the lockeroom as well.  

[Mongo3451]

4 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Sometimes I wonder - is the actual answer forward that teams should be MORE patient vs. less (the recent trend has been less) when it comes to coaches, especially first time coaches.  Just because they don't win out of the gate - doesn't mean they are a bad coach.  How is the underlying process they are following working or not working.  With that said - all of it gets hard - because culture is so impacted by win(s) and loss(es).  The more you looser - the harder over time to maintain it.  

I believe this is answered at the ownership level.  Some owners want to win at all cost, while others are in it for sustained income.  As far as the Bears are concerned, I feel they have entered the win phase, especially with Mother McCaskey in her twilight.

[BearFan PHX]

16 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

If we took Pickens - I think he would have quit on anyone.  Jalen, I don't know - I am going to guess he would have been fine.  I get the sense that the players respect Flus.  I do think Poles has done a good job in terms of how he has built the lockeroom as well.  

To be fair, Claypool definitely quit on the team. So there's speculation enough to go around on Poles too, but overall i think he's done well.

But in general, I dont see brilliant coaching by Eberflus. I see a roster getting better and the players doing it. Now this may well be an endorsement of the position coaches, but given all the strategic errors that Flus has made, I dont think he is a difference maker to the plus side - not enough to be retained.

And like Ive said before, its not like he doesnt know what hes doing. He has shown competence, he is a professional, not a guy off the street, but in this league i think youre looking for that rare genius that increases your chances to win. They are hard to impossible to find, but I think you gotta keep trying.

I think the main difference of opinion on this hinges on whether you're thinking about what's fair or nice to Eberflus, or whether you are laser focused on building a dominant winner. If Flus is a 7 out of 10 for example (not saying he is, just hypothetically) then is it fair to him to fire him? Probably not. Does he "deserve" another chance? Sure. But if you're looking for a 10 out of 10 to lead your team for a decade, then you gotta be willing to throw a 7/10 back into the water and fish again. yes the next one might be a 6, but until you have a 10 (or at least a 9!) you gotta keep trying. So to me, it's not about fairness or loyalty to Eberflus of Fields or anyone, but about a quest for excellent where competence and decent dont cut it?

The counter argument to what Im saying is that a player may still be improving. That's a tough bet, and one that you gotta evaluate all the time in the NFL, and it's tough. But a coach? By the time they get to be a head coach, they should be pretty much fully cooked. It's not like making decisions like going for it on 4th down, or calling timeouts, or getting too conservative in the 4th quarter are new ideas that the coach is just learning. Theyve been in the league a while and watched all of this. If we the fans know this stuff, a head coach ought not to have to be learning on the job.

So the argument to stick with Fields because he is still growing is one I dont agree with, but it is a valid argument. But I dont think its one that really applies to head coaches?

[BearFan PHX]

Just to be clear, I have both called Eberflus "terrible" and "competent" what I mean is that as a head coach, his record and a lot of his strategic decisions and 4th quarter strategies have been terrible. But compared to any one of us (or at least me) or the average Madden player, Flus is a competent professional. He knows how to organize practices and meetings, and how to coach up a cover 2 for one example.

I'm sure Eberflus has a eye for details that a guy like me would completely miss. Spacing on a cover 2 for example. Hes a pro, and Im just a fan. Out on the practice field, he has a career's worth of knowledge, that makes him a professional.

But compared to other winning professional head coaches, he is terrible.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

We really do need to find stability, because constant turnover makes LT success so hard.  When you change schemes / systems / front offices - you end up turning over the roster more and essentially punting on talent. You do it multiple times and it is multiple resets - so getting it right becomes so much harder cause you are constantly starting in a hole.  

Sometimes I wonder - is the actual answer forward that teams should be MORE patient vs. less (the recent trend has been less) when it comes to coaches, especially first time coaches.  Just because they don't win out of the gate - doesn't mean they are a bad coach.  How is the underlying process they are following working or not working.  With that said - all of it gets hard - because culture is so impacted by win(s) and loss(es).  The more you looser - the harder over time to maintain it.  

By all accounts - the Bears have a pretty good lockeroom, despite the losses. This may benefit from them being such a young team - so guys just get along and hang out a bit more than if you were a more veteran laden team.  But it seems evident by all the quotes from players - the team generally seems to get along well and you have guys wanting to be here. Now if you can't keep momentum forward - that will change.  If next year this team post a losing record under Flus - I think at that point - the players would be turning.  If they keep improving though - than you actually start to have a culture and identity.  

I go back to Poles original plan which he sold to the owners. This a 4 yr rebuild and we will start to win in yr 3. He stripped the roster to redo our cap hell so no way an owner thinks that happens in two yrs. That is why he may keep Flus around for another yr to see if the progress continues to grow. Of course fans are tired of losing so for two yrs they are all over changing anything. We have never seen a complete rebuild since I became a fan. This is what it looks like. Lots of losing, to think some fairy tale is going to happen in yr 2 is something only an optimist like me would think. Now there is problems with the play calling , sometimes it looks good and most of the time its problems. If he keeps Fields, he will find someone that designs an offense around Fields special skills, otherwise if he brings in a pocket QB, he may even keep Gesty. The team is sold on Flus and are totally behind Justin, that will come into play with his keeping Fields. I still thinks he keeps Fields and brings in a QB to develop. 31 mil for the next 2 yrs foe Fields is not a big expense for QBs. The top drafted QB will cost 18 mil in those two yrs and you have no idea what your getting. If Poles likes Williams he is going to draft him. He said ( a QB to blow him away). Not sure that is the guy. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

28 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I go back to Poles original plan which he sold to the owners. This a 4 yr rebuild and we will start to win in yr 3. He stripped the roster to redo our cap hell so no way an owner thinks that happens in two yrs. That is why he may keep Flus around for another yr to see if the progress continues to grow. Of course fans are tired of losing so for two yrs they are all over changing anything. We have never seen a complete rebuild since I became a fan. This is what it looks like. Lots of losing, to think some fairy tale is going to happen in yr 2 is something only an optimist like me would think. Now there is problems with the play calling , sometimes it looks good and most of the time its problems. If he keeps Fields, he will find someone that designs an offense around Fields special skills, otherwise if he brings in a pocket QB, he may even keep Gesty. The team is sold on Flus and are totally behind Justin, that will come into play with his keeping Fields. I still thinks he keeps Fields and brings in a QB to develop. 31 mil for the next 2 yrs foe Fields is not a big expense for QBs. The top drafted QB will cost 18 mil in those two yrs and you have no idea what your getting. If Poles likes Williams he is going to draft him. He said ( a QB to blow him away). Not sure that is the guy. 

From the Poles perspective - after year 1, I erred on patience, now almost through the 2nd year - I am getting excited.  When I think about what he's done in the 2 years:

The positive: Brought in 10 new starters - bulk of which are young and ascending (Via Draft = Gordon / Brisker / Braxton Jones / Wright / Sanborn / Stevenson / Dexter; Via Free Agency or Trade = TJ Edwards / Montez Sweat / Edmunds). These were +10 in terms of new starters; The only guys headed out that were impactful were Mack & Roquan.  So in my mind +8 in terms of net roster upgrades.   

- Acquired DJ Moore & Extra Top 3 Pick (+ Future 2nd Rounder)

- Turned Khalil Mack into Jaquan Brisker (plus helped future cap space) 

- Turned Roquan Smith into Edmunds, Edwards, and Dexter (who is starting to trend up)

- '22 Draft: No first round pick - but found 3 starters - Gordon, Brisker, and Braxton Jones; Identified 4th starter via UDFA (Jack Sanborn). Hicks & Carter emerging at very least as quality depth pieces.  Trenton Gill is a starting punter - but I am not going to focus much on that. 

- '23 Draft: On track for 3 starters with all 3 currently ascending: Wright (Looking good), Stevenson (Ascending), Dexter (Ascending).  Later round picks show potential to emerge as contributors (Scott / Roschon Johnson / Pickens / Terrell Smith).

Meh: 

- Ed Davis signing (flashes of good - but family stuff and injuries have impacted ability to assess on field performance)

- A number of FA dline signings (all have been pretty meh to date)

- Traded Robert Quinn for Terrell Smith - I saw meh because it was a solid move, Smith shows upside for a 5th rounder - so if that hits - than we are in business.  But concept was still good - move aging player who didn't fit the contention window for an asset.  

Misses: 

- Velus Jones (if you can call a pick that late a miss)

- Chase Claypool 

- Lucas Patrick / '23 Center Fiasco 

- Had some misses on short-term deals in free agency, especially in year 1; But nothing that set the franchise back.  

[BearFan PHX]

40 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

From the Poles perspective - after year 1, I erred on patience, now almost through the 2nd year - I am getting excited.  When I think about what he's done in the 2 years:

The positive: Brought in 10 new starters - bulk of which are young and ascending (Via Draft = Gordon / Brisker / Braxton Jones / Wright / Sanborn / Stevenson / Dexter; Via Free Agency or Trade = TJ Edwards / Montez Sweat / Edmunds). These were +10 in terms of new starters; The only guys headed out that were impactful were Mack & Roquan.  So in my mind +8 in terms of net roster upgrades.   

- Acquired DJ Moore & Extra Top 3 Pick (+ Future 2nd Rounder)

- Turned Khalil Mack into Jaquan Brisker (plus helped future cap space) 

- Turned Roquan Smith into Edmunds, Edwards, and Dexter (who is starting to trend up)

- '22 Draft: No first round pick - but found 3 starters - Gordon, Brisker, and Braxton Jones; Identified 4th starter via UDFA (Jack Sanborn). Hicks & Carter emerging at very least as quality depth pieces.  Trenton Gill is a starting punter - but I am not going to focus much on that. 

- '23 Draft: On track for 3 starters with all 3 currently ascending: Wright (Looking good), Stevenson (Ascending), Dexter (Ascending).  Later round picks show potential to emerge as contributors (Scott / Roschon Johnson / Pickens / Terrell Smith).

Meh: 

- Ed Davis signing (flashes of good - but family stuff and injuries have impacted ability to assess on field performance)

- A number of FA dline signings (all have been pretty meh to date)

- Traded Robert Quinn for Terrell Smith - I saw meh because it was a solid move, Smith shows upside for a 5th rounder - so if that hits - than we are in business.  But concept was still good - move aging player who didn't fit the contention window for an asset.  

Misses: 

- Velus Jones (if you can call a pick that late a miss)

- Chase Claypool 

- Lucas Patrick / '23 Center Fiasco 

- Had some misses on short-term deals in free agency, especially in year 1; But nothing that set the franchise back.  

I agree Poles has been doing a really good job.

I think that even if the original plan was to give Eberflus 3 years, that you can also do analysis on him now. If he'd been coaching well, and the roster just wasnt up to it, then I could understand staying with him. But given all the unforced errors he's made, I think you need to do analysis on him now, rather than being true to a plan you made two years ago.

It isnt about what's fairest to Eberflus, but what's best for the team that matters. And if you're gonna change QBs, best to do that with a new coach and not the last year of an existing coach. We did that the last two times with Trubisky and Fields, and it hurt both of those players. I think it's best to get everyone on the same schedule, and get the new coach involved in the draft choice decision making.