Flus is coming back, change my mind

[Stinger226]

Flus was hired by Poles, the outside noise is get a new coach but nothing has come from inside with that tone. Flus has shown growth with the defense but the offense still has a lot to be desired. The offense is Gesty's baby and he will be gone. Flus is not perfect but he's new to the job and has the team vitialized with a long losing streak. The loses are bad but Poles won't hold Flus responsible for his first season, he gutted the roster. In the last 6 games we are 4 and 2 . In  a coaching world that's progress. Stability is never established by constantly making changes. With a new QB, and new OC, the winning will get more consistent. IF we win out 8-9 that's a huge  turn around. Even 7-10 is up tick. 

So Flus will be back.IMO

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Did coaches clean details up? Poles is watching and that cute 3rd and 1 wildcat was not clean. That might be more on Getsy but still has to be cleared by Flus.

 

[AZ54]

32 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Flus was hired by Poles, the outside noise is get a new coach but nothing has come from inside with that tone. Flus has shown growth with the defense but the offense still has a lot to be desired. The offense is Gesty's baby and he will be gone. Flus is not perfect but he's new to the job and has the team vitialized with a long losing streak. The loses are bad but Poles won't hold Flus responsible for his first season, he gutted the roster. In the last 6 games we are 4 and 2 . In  a coaching world that's progress. Stability is never established by constantly making changes. With a new QB, and new OC, the winning will get more consistent. IF we win out 8-9 that's a huge  turn around. Even 7-10 is up tick. 

So Flus will be back.IMO

I think so too with new OC and DC.  

[killakrzydav]

You're right. We can't lose enough.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, killakrzydav said:

You're right. We can't lose enough.

lol thats how it feels to me too - I dont get it.

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

You're right. We can't lose enough.

How many wins were you expecting with this roster in the first year of a rebuild?  

[BearFan PHX]

42 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

How many wins were you expecting with this roster in the first year of a rebuild?  

how many unforced errors can a coach make before you consider improving his position as well toward winning?

[Pixote]

There are only three men I would consider hiring to replace Flus.

Jim Harbaugh - I  read that Michigan offered him a huge contract worth 12M but it had a clause that he would not seek a HC spot in the NFL for the year 2024. Would he sign with us and pass up 12M? If Michigan wins the National Title and the Bears offer him bit $$$, I think he would.

Todd Monken - The best clone of Fields is Lamar Jackson. We can see what Jackson has done with Monken as his OC. Watching the Ravens, led by LJ and a damn good defense, blast San Francisco last night, I wonder what Fields would look like with a system designed for him by Monken and a host of blue chip players added to the roster by trading the #1 pick?

Brian Johnson - almost forgot this man. OC of Philadelphia, designed the system Hurts is running, would be an awesome addition.

They say you need a good QB to succeed. But you also need to give him an OC who knows how to utilize his talents as well a team with a roster strong enough on both sides of the ball to succeed. I think keeping Fields, drafting a QB prospect mid first to mid second rd, adding Harbaugh, Monken or Johnson as HC (or keeping Flus as HC and finding a good substitute for the OC position), and then allowing Poles to hit the jackpot by trading the #1 pick is the best route to go. Just MHO.

[adam]

I think the 3 collapses are hard to overcome. Last year we said they didn't feel like a 3-win team. This year, we feel like they are better than a 6-win team. That seems to point to inferior coaching. Like I said in another thread, they literally drew up a defensive scheme that made Justin Jones drop into coverage, which got them burnt and ultimately led to a loss. Then they get asked about it, and said "we have to be better" and then do it again for another opponent TD in the next game. Flus literally made that play 11v10. Jones is useless not rushing the passer taking up a blocker, so him dropping back 5 yards does absolutely nothing and it's not like he is going to catch anyone. 

Then you have the offense an Getsy. Flus is still approving the plays. He knows the play designs, they have to practice these where Tonyan is asked to block out of motion (whiffed completely). They are always cute on 3rd or 4th and short. Always. If it changed, then I would tip my cap to Flus and Getsy, but they have been doing this crap since Week 1.

[AZ54]

24 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

how many unforced errors can a coach make before you consider improving his position as well toward winning?

I don’t have that in a specific number but in my line of work most new engineers don’t get it all correct for a couple years, even if they have PhD.   I evaluate more on the body of work and are they trending in the right direction.   That’s especially true with new managers.   

I look at coaches and players in the same manner.   Last year the consensus on Kyler Gordon through about 3/4 of the season was that he was a wasted pick.  Leading a large organization through a very difficult time takes a lot to turn it around and Improve performance.  Is it all perfect?   Not at all.  Is the trend positive and improving?   IMO yes and the record validates that along with many performance stats.   

For example, I don’t believe having the NFL’s best  rushing defense is an accident or something the players are doing to spite their coaches    When I consider we were the worst rushing defense last year and fixing that was job one in the off-season I’d say that’s a pretty good turnaround.  
 

If he sticks around can Flus learn from his hiring  mistakes?  I think so.  As someone who has made mistakes hiring people I can say most managers do learn but not all.   I also don’t think Flus is the ego maniac Nagy was who always thought he was the smartest guy in the room.  In fact his history of changing his cover 2 heavy scheme to adapt to modern offenses by using more cover 3 shows that.  He said as much when he was at Indy.     
 

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

There are a few differences.

First off, when new engineers come in, it is natural that they would need time to learn and grow - the same with rookie players.

Head Coaches have been coaching in the NFL for many years as assistants and coordinators. They should be ready. They shouldnt be making so many mistakes going for it on 4th down when they should take a field goal, keeping your star defensive player on the sidelines in critical end of game situations because of "the rotation" and going into too safe prevents that give the game away. That last ones should already be known by any NFL coordinator on the same side of the ball before they are head coach for sure.

The second point is that new engineers arent expected to be the best engineer youve ever had. In almost every business, competence is a good goal. If youre decent and a pro, thats great, youre valuable to the organization and loyalty is a great thing.

But in the NFL there is one winner and 31 losers every year. You need a coach and leading players to be difference makers. They need to be a reason you have an edge over another top team, not simply competent.

In any other business, Id keep Eberflus and give him a raise. Id help him learn and have patience for his ups and downs. Then again, new engineers dont demand $4.5 Million a year like Eberflus does. A better analogy would be CEO, or COO. You wouldnt stick with one of those that keeps making mistakes. At that level, they should already know what they are doing.

I dont hate Eberflus the man. He seems like a good guy, and he's not a total idiot or anything. He's just an average NFL coach at best. I dont think he will ever be the reason we beat a great a team.

And for me, that is good enough reason to fire him. Youre looking for greatness, which is hard to find, and you have to move on from just OK to find it.

I get that loyalty is a great quality. It's one I like in my friends and work peers. It's how I'd like to be treated by neighbors, and how i treat people in return. But in the hyper competitive world of NFL football, it just doesnt belong.

So when you hear me saying i want a new coach, it's not because Im an angry negative person who hates sports figures as a way of being. I know people like that. I dont like it either. I've been posting on this board for a LONG time, and I dont have a history or crapping all over players and coaches as a matter of style. yes I thought Nagy was a joke, and Trubisky was over his head. Didnt we all?

I want to move on from Eberflus just because I dont think he is a positive difference maker, and I want to see the Bears become an amazing dominant team in this window of players. I dont want to squander it and be back to a year or two of ripping the roster down just to try again.

I feel the same way about Fields. I want difference making winners in there. 6.5/10 isnt gonna cut it. It doesnt mean I think they are 2/10, it means I want 9/10 winner types (or better).

If we get a new coach and a rookie QB next year, you will hear me having patience for the team to grow, and rooting for them to succeed. Im not the negative guy it may seem, but I just want change now having seen enough of Eberflus and Fields both.

And Ryan Poles should be thinking about this too, because his job is on the line too if he sticks with these guys and it doesnt pan out. He's done a great job of making roster decisions so far. I DO see him as a positive difference maker. But this will be his biggest decision, and he has to get it right.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, Pixote said:

There are only three men I would consider hiring to replace Flus.

Jim Harbaugh - I  read that Michigan offered him a huge contract worth 12M but it had a clause that he would not seek a HC spot in the NFL for the year 2024. Would he sign with us and pass up 12M? If Michigan wins the National Title and the Bears offer him bit $$$, I think he would.

Todd Monken - The best clone of Fields is Lamar Jackson. We can see what Jackson has done with Monken as his OC. Watching the Ravens, led by LJ and a damn good defense, blast San Francisco last night, I wonder what Fields would look like with a system designed for him by Monken and a host of blue chip players added to the roster by trading the #1 pick?

Brian Johnson - almost forgot this man. OC of Philadelphia, designed the system Hurts is running, would be an awesome addition.

They say you need a good QB to succeed. But you also need to give him an OC who knows how to utilize his talents as well a team with a roster strong enough on both sides of the ball to succeed. I think keeping Fields, drafting a QB prospect mid first to mid second rd, adding Harbaugh, Monken or Johnson as HC (or keeping Flus as HC and finding a good substitute for the OC position), and then allowing Poles to hit the jackpot by trading the #1 pick is the best route to go. Just MHO.

The last two choices for sure because they have a history of designing an offense around the strenghs of a player over systems. Even if Fields is gone, you need adaptabity.

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

There are a few differences.

First off, when new engineers come in, it is natural that they would need time to learn and grow - the same with rookie players.

Head Coaches have been coaching in the NFL for many years as assistants and coordinators. They should be ready. They shouldnt be making so many mistakes going for it on 4th down when they should take a field goal, keeping your star defensive player on the sidelines in critical end of game situations because of "the rotation" and going into too safe prevents that give the game away. That last ones should already be known by any NFL coordinator on the same side of the ball before they are head coach for sure.

The second point is that new engineers arent expected to be the best engineer youve ever had. In almost every business, competence is a good goal. If youre decent and a pro, thats great, youre valuable to the organization and loyalty is a great thing.

But in the NFL there is one winner and 31 losers every year. You need a coach and leading players to be difference makers. They need to be a reason you have an edge over another top team, not simply competent.

In any other business, Id keep Eberflus and give him a raise. Id help him learn and have patience for his ups and downs. Then again, new engineers dont demand $4.5 Million a year like Eberflus does. A better analogy would be CEO, or COO. You wouldnt stick with one of those that keeps making mistakes. At that level, they should already know what they are doing.

I dont hate Eberflus the man. He seems like a good guy, and he's not a total idiot or anything. He's just an average NFL coach at best. I dont think he will ever be the reason we beat a great a team.

And for me, that is good enough reason to fire him. Youre looking for greatness, which is hard to find, and you have to move on from just OK to find it.

I get that loyalty is a great quality. It's one I like in my friends and work peers. It's how I'd like to be treated by neighbors, and how i treat people in return. But in the hyper competitive world of NFL football, it just doesnt belong.

So when you hear me saying i want a new coach, it's not because Im an angry negative person who hates sports figures as a way of being. I know people like that. I dont like it either. I've been posting on this board for a LONG time, and I dont have a history or crapping all over players and coaches as a matter of style. yes I thought Nagy was a joke, and Trubisky was over his head. Didnt we all?

I want to move on from Eberflus just because I dont think he is a positive difference maker, and I want to see the Bears become an amazing dominant team in this window of players. I dont want to squander it and be back to a year or two of ripping the roster down just to try again.

I feel the same way about Fields. I want difference making winners in there. 6.5/10 isnt gonna cut it. It doesnt mean I think they are 2/10, it means I want 9/10 winner types (or better).

If we get a new coach and a rookie QB next year, you will hear me having patience for the team to grow, and rooting for them to succeed. Im not the negative guy it may seem, but I just want change now having seen enough of Eberflus and Fields both.

And Ryan Poles should be thinking about this too, because his job is on the line too if he sticks with these guys and it doesnt pan out. He's done a great job of making roster decisions so far. I DO see him as a positive difference maker. But this will be his biggest decision, and he has to get it right.

You have more loyalty than I do.  No way I’d give him a raise based on his performance in any other industry.  I wouldn’t even guarantee Flus his job unless or until I understood the details.   That’s stuff we can’t get.  The overall trend for the team is upward    You just see it as this is as high as it will ever get.  I think the ceiling is higher with better talent and better coordinators.     

 

[BearFan PHX]

30 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

You have more loyalty than I do.  No way I’d give him a raise based on his performance in any other industry.  I wouldn’t even guarantee Flus his job unless or until I understood the details.   That’s stuff we can’t get.  The overall trend for the team is upward    You just see it as this is as high as it will ever get.  I think the ceiling is higher with better talent and better coordinators.    

Well pretty much yes. I do think that we can become the 15th best team in the power rankings or so with Eberflus and Fields. But I don't mean to nitpick on language or anything like that. My main point remains, and you're right, I don't see us being a Super Bowl contender with this QB or Head Coach.

And maybe more to the point, I dont see evidence that proves that right now. A lot of the evidence is going the other way. When Eberflus went for it on 4th down against the Packers instead of kicking the field goal, and he or Getsy decided to run the Kmet sneak, I called that strike one. Since then, there have been several more to my mind.

I understand sometimes an opposing player beats you with a great performance, and sometimes the opposing coach gets the better of you with a well timed call "rock paper scissors" style. Good teams lose games, and once you get to the final four teams or so, on any given Sunday etc.

But there have been so many unforced errors that I cant take Eberflus seriously as a difference making coach that gives us an edge on good teams.

I do see improvement. I think a lot of that is the players, and perhaps the position coaches too. And Poles who got them. Everyone looks better with Dexter, Stevenson and the other rookie CB playing well now, and Sweat has added a missing piece that makes everything else look MUCH better. The LBs are playing well, Kmet is growing, Moore is great. The OL is looking better in some places too. Wright is a monster. There are reasons why the arrow is pointing up for us. I just happen to think theyd remain positives with another coach, and I dont really think Eberflus is doing anything that unconventional that another qualified head coach wouldnt give you too.

Can anyone make an argument of something Eberflus has done that a competent coach wouldnt have? Something Eberflus has done that's special?

With Fields, until he shows me playing within the plays, I think there is a definite ceiling on what he can do against top defenses too.

So we could become the lords of the second tier. We could ascend to regularly beating the bad teams, and mostly beating the middle teams. But I dont think that improvement would ever peak above that with this QB and coach.

And it's cool if you or anyone disagrees with that, because I have no crystal ball. I just havent seen anything that would tell me that is going to happen - not enough to bet on it?

And youre also right that there are internal details we cant possibly know. Maybe Getsy is hamstrung by Fields, or vice versa. Theres a lot we dont know.

But the unforced errors are still there to see, and they arent a matter of missing internal data?

[Alaskan Grizzly]

10 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Then again, new engineers dont demand $4.5 Million a year like Eberflus does

If this is accurate, Lovie was making $5 million per year and that was how many years ago?  So in you look at the “business aspect” of it, they aren’t paying a kings ransom for him to coach. 

This post courtesy of the Palace Bar and about six drinks!  

[BearFan PHX]

31 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

If this is accurate, Lovie was making $5 million per year and that was how many years ago?  So in you look at the “business aspect” of it, they aren’t paying a kings ransom for him to coach. 

This post courtesy of the Palace Bar and about six drinks!  

Yeah Lovie was making $5.5 Mil a year, and Eberflus is rumored to be making $4.5 Mil a year over 10 years later! - those McCaskeys...

Let's give Harbaugh $15 Mil a year, OK Virginia? Maybe make that $225 Million cap you spend each year worth something?

[killakrzydav]

My prediction is in the Bears thread. I think I went 7-10

[adam]

48 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

My prediction is in the Bears thread. I think I went 7-10

Yep, you started with 8 wins, then dropped to 7. Looks like one of those two will be right.

On 9/4/2023 at 6:54 PM, killakrzydav said:

I’m actually lowering my prediction one win from 8-9 to 7-10.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, adam said:

Yep, you started with 8 wins, then dropped to 7. Looks like one of those two will be right.

Anyway you want to show it we got better in year 2 of a 4 year plan. Wasn't that Poles plan to begin with. Flus ain't going anywhere.

[adam]

35 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Anyway you want to show it we got better in year 2 of a 4 year plan. Wasn't that Poles plan to begin with. Flus ain't going anywhere.

In a macro view, he probably stays as he went from a 3-win to at least a 6-win team. On a micro level, I could see them moving on. So it will depend on if Poles views Flus as a success or a failure.

[Stinger226]

4 minutes ago, adam said:

In a macro view, he probably stays as he went from a 3-win to at least a 6-win team. On a micro level, I could see them moving on. So it will depend on if Poles views Flus as a success or a failure.

My view is Flus will tell him that Poles gutted the roster in his first yr and took some wins away from for that. So when everyone throws the losing record as a reason to get rid of him, it doesnt fly. If he finishes with 7-8 wins, hard to argue we are not getting better. No way Poles ever thought we would make the playoffs in yr 2 of a rebuild. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

On 12/26/2023 at 11:47 PM, BearFan PHX said:

Yeah Lovie was making $5.5 Mil a year, and Eberflus is rumored to be making $4.5 Mil a year over 10 years later! - those McCaskeys...

Let's give Harbaugh $15 Mil a year, OK Virginia? Maybe make that $225 Million cap you spend each year worth something?

Despite suspending him twice (?) this year and rescinding an earlier offer of ~$12 million, Michigan is back offering Jim a 10 year $125 million deal (with one caveat).  He ain’t comin to Chicago . 
 

As an aside, saw a bunch of the Michigan players here in LA (and a few ‘Bama players and staff) while they prep for the Rose Bowl in a few days.  
 

 

[Stinger226]

8 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Despite suspending him twice (?) this year and rescinding an earlier offer of ~$12 million, Michigan is back offering Jim a 10 year $125 million deal (with one caveat).  He ain’t comin to Chicago . 
 

As an aside, saw a bunch of the Michigan players here in LA (and a few ‘Bama players and staff) while they prep for the Rose Bowl in a few days.  
 

 

Harbaugh loves Michigan and they are giving him 125 mil, those dont add up to  him leaving to me. 

[adam]

Flus has a lot of nicknames for his guys: 

 

[BearFan PHX]

as long as we are doing all of this, Ive been wanting to make one point, because I am worried about what the Bears are gonna do.

Everything I'm saying on this board about Eberflus and Fields is what I want them to do - I am pretty sure in my decisions at this point, I have convictions about them.

But I'm not predicting what the Bears are GOING to do. I'm a lot less certain about that. And I really hope they do the right thing, but this IS the Bears.