Flus is coming back, change my mind

[adam]

17 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

as long as we are doing all of this, Ive been wanting to make one point, because I am worried about what the Bears are gonna do.

Everything I'm saying on this board about Eberflus and Fields is what I want them to do - I am pretty sure in my decisions at this point, I have convictions about them.

But I'm not predicting what the Bears are GOING to do. I'm a lot less certain about that. And I really hope they do the right thing, but this IS the Bears.

Exactly, I jump back and forth between what I want them to do and what I think they will do. I know we are concerned they will do what they always do, but Poles is going to have unprecedented flexibility going into the 2024 draft and offseason.

Now one other thing, if you look at PFF grades by team, the Bears are 27th overall according to PFF. So my question to everyone is, are we giving too much credit to Poles because we like some of the players? Like if this roster was as good as some of us think it is, wouldn't the PFF grades be higher? I know that some of the grades are sus, but generally speaking, they are at least in the ballpark, and the grades seem to get better as they average them out over time. 

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, adam said:

Exactly, I jump back and forth between what I want them to do and what I think they will do. I know we are concerned they will do what they always do, but Poles is going to have unprecedented flexibility going into the 2024 draft and offseason.

Now one other thing, if you look at PFF grades by team, the Bears are 27th overall according to PFF. So my question to everyone is, are we giving too much credit to Poles because we like some of the players? Like if this roster was as good as some of us think it is, wouldn't the PFF grades be higher? I know that some of the grades are sus, but generally speaking, they are at least in the ballpark, and the grades seem to get better as they average them out over time. 

Not sure you can take everything PFF states as realistic. If that's says we're the 27 th best team in the League, Their off. 

[BearFan PHX]

I put this on another thread just now too. PFF is random. They told us Charles Leno was the best OT in the league, while we watched him be a turnstyle every week.

A lot of times Leno was just plain blocking thew wrong guy. So if the guard and Leno each have a defender in front of them, and the the guard takes his guy, and Leno doubles the guard's guy and leaves his own assignement completely unblocked, and that guy comes in and destroys the QB thats a positive grade on Leno because they guy he made contact with wasnt the one getting the sack. In fact its probably a + play because the doubled defender didnt sniff the QB. Good job Leno!

PFF is a total joke. They are random.

[Stinger226]

I just seen on X that it is reported that Flus is going to be back. Anyone know the source for that? Writers make stuff up and everyone assumes its true? Rumors are riduculous. Why would any GM announce that before the end of the season.

[BearFan PHX]

Ian Rappaport, who is pretty well connected said that Eberflus is "expected to return" in 2024. Who it is that is expecting it I dunno.

GMs also float false stories with big names like this. If they dont tell them its fake, then they lose the ability to do it again, but supposedly, they call the reporter, tell them its a rumor and if they post it, they will give that reporter the exclusive on the story when the decision is actually made.

Now I cant for the life of guess why Poles would want to put that out there and lie. Maybe he wants other teams not to be as worried and try to get to his guys faster? I dunno, but it turns into a giant conspiracy theory pretty quick, so Im not making a guess as to why.

If its someone else in the organization, or maybe Flus' agent, then they dont know but theyre manipulating or guessing.

Maybe Poles is taking the temperature of the fans to see how much of a hit hes going to take if he keeps or dumps him? Like a trial balloon?

All this to say, Rappaport is often right, but I cant understand what it is he could really know. And his words were expected so that makes it even less definitive.

Still, it was enough to make me say "shit" out loud.

[adam]

Yeah, I doubt that report would come out if he is gone or if it is undecided.

 

[BearFan PHX]

But if Poles wanted this out, he could just announce it.

it has to be rumor or disinfo smoke. Not saying it isnt true tho.

[adam]

2 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

But if Poles wanted this out, he could just announce it.

it has to be rumor or disinfo smoke. Not saying it isnt true tho.

Just odd timing imo. Why now with 2 weeks left?

[adam]

Reading the tea leaves, I assume this means they are trading the #1 pick and not taking a QB. 

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, adam said:

Just odd timing imo. Why now with 2 weeks left?

If its true there is literally no reason to do it this way. If it's smoke, I could imagine a bunch of scenarios, mostly around cooling off the idea that were going to jump ahead of someone to sign a coach, so they dont beat us to it.

It also might be to make people think something to help with draft smoke.

But Im not selling any of these, disinfo smoke could mean anything.

Maybe he wants to see Eberflus fight the last two weeks for a complete evaluation.

All my ideas are dumb. But if you wanted this info out there as solid truth, youd just call a press conference and announce it, so theres some other reason, or its not coming from the decision makers.

Rappaport has been wrong before, but he's usually not.

Again I say... shit.

[adam]

Think about it, they just released the video of him walking around the players with all the nicknames. Outside of his ridiculous post game speeches and his pressers, that was the only other time we have seen him interacting with the players. That comes out, then this announcement follows a few days later? Feels slightly staged. Get a positive vibe out about Flus, then leak this info.

[adam]

Can someone decipher this from Foreman:

This came out right after the Flus news.

[Mongo3451]

3 minutes ago, adam said:

Can someone decipher this from Foreman:

This came out right after the Flus news.

Seems unrelated.  Sounds like he wants a contract and business sucks sometimes...

[BearFan PHX]

9 minutes ago, adam said:

Think about it, they just released the video of him walking around the players with all the nicknames. Outside of his ridiculous post game speeches and his pressers, that was the only other time we have seen him interacting with the players. That comes out, then this announcement follows a few days later? Feels slightly staged. Get a positive vibe out about Flus, then leak this info.

for sure. but look at the branches of this decision tree. The main branch is that whether it is true or false.

If you take the true branch, then Poles asks "do I want this known?" if yes then just announce it yourself, and everyone is 100% sure. But it is leaked instead. So there are these scenarios:

Poles has been loose with the info, Eberflus already knows, and someone leaked. That would be really dumb.

IF the person who leaked it DOESNT KNOW, or it is Poles choosing a leak over an announcement, then it is a strategic leak. And could mean anything. Not to necessarily be taken at face value.

The video of Flus talking up players comes from the Halas Hall media department though. Why would Poles or Halas Hall want that?

Maybe hes keeping Eberflus and wants the announcement not to be a shock, but ease us into it? Could that be it?

I just think I still dont know.

[BearFan PHX]

2 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Seems unrelated.  Sounds like he wants a contract and business sucks sometimes...

I need a raise for posting around here too.

Currently I get $0, and I'm asking for a 300% increase.

[adam]

How many other 6 or 7 win teams are needing to announce/leak their coaching status for 2024 with 2 games remaining? Just seems weird to me.

[BearFan PHX]

17 minutes ago, adam said:

How many other 6 or 7 win teams are needing to announce/leak their coaching status for 2024 with 2 games remaining? Just seems weird to me.

yes it is.

I have heard that the way this works sometimes (not saying this time) is a GM or agent will tell a guy liek Rappaport a rumor, that may not be true. If he tries to trick Rappaport, then Rappaport will never trust him again, so instead he tells Rappaport its a rumor, and tells him that if he publishes the rumor, he will give him the exclusive when the actual story breaks. And then reporters float the rumor.

I can only imagine Eberflus' camp doing this tho. No other benefit I can think of other than blowing smoke to cover for new coach negotiations, and thats such a tenuous benefit, that it'd be really crappy to do to Eberflus, and if word got out, coaches would avoid Poles.

So Im guessing this didnt come out of Halas Hall.

Now, what if Poles is talking to Eberflus' agent about extrending him so he isnt int he last year of his deal, and can get a good OC and draft a QB high - then maybe the agent knows Flus is likely back. But Poles would be telling the agent this was conditional, and not for sure, or else he weakens his position, and so the agent leaks this, telling Rappaport that Poles is asking around the price, and tries to put public pressure on Poles to make the deal.

OR...

could be a trial balloon from Halas Hall to test public sentiment

OR

who the hell knows.

[Stinger226]

I dont think Poles wanted that out there, I would say the janitor (joking) overheard something and its a in the house contact. Poles is to smart to let that information out for public consumtion right now. No reason to do it right now. 

 The team has gotten better in yr 2, he kept the team together thru a lot of losses.  People want to look at his record but the first yr was a tear down of the whole roster, that doesnt produce wins. So take him just on this yr. Bad at first (on him with the slow start) but as soon as he got him a pass rusher, everything flips. If he had that guy on day 1 , what would our record be righnow? Things to like and things to not like. Poles picked him, why wouldnt he bring him back. We still can be 8-9 this year finishing the season 6-2. That s the same script thar Lions did last yr and Cambell gets praised. 

[BearFan PHX]

Ugh.

Here is what Rappaport said on TV

"Specifically, Ian Rapoport said, "I would be surprised as of right now if Matt Eberflus was not back for the Chicago Bears. They've looked much better... They certainly seem to be headed in the right direction... I hear nothing but positive vibes from Chicago."’

So the person who "expects it" that makes it "expected" is Rappaport's own guess, and rosy talk from his insiders, as opposed to say... information.

So nothingburger.

[jason]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I put this on another thread just now too. PFF is random. They told us Charles Leno was the best OT in the league, while we watched him be a turnstyle every week.

A lot of times Leno was just plain blocking thew wrong guy. So if the guard and Leno each have a defender in front of them, and the the guard takes his guy, and Leno doubles the guard's guy and leaves his own assignement completely unblocked, and that guy comes in and destroys the QB thats a positive grade on Leno because they guy he made contact with wasnt the one getting the sack. In fact its probably a + play because the doubled defender didnt sniff the QB. Good job Leno!

PFF is a total joke. They are random.

Thank you for doing what I was going to do. Every week for multiple years people on here and other forums would use PFF grades as gospel, all the while they were grading Leno as anything more than steaming dog shit. PFF grades are meaningless.

[jason]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Reading the tea leaves, I assume this means they are trading the #1 pick and not taking a QB. 

Hopefully. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

For the record - if we stick with Fields, we better trade the top pick for another haul and keep building up the squad and get at least one future first. 
 

I have long said nothing would irritate me more than staying at one and taking a non qb. I just don’t like it - even as incredible as Harrison Jr might be…you don’t win super bowls because you have a great wideout (but they are really important). 

[adam]

8 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

For the record - if we stick with Fields, we better trade the top pick for another haul and keep building up the squad and get at least one future first. 
 

I have long said nothing would irritate me more than staying at one and taking a non qb. I just don’t like it - even as incredible as Harrison Jr might be…you don’t win super bowls because you have a great wideout (but they are really important). 

Getting a future 1st also hedges with Fields again. Even if the pick is not the #1 again, they could package the two future 1sts to move up if need be and not lose anything. I am hoping the can trade with a terrible team again like WAS or NE who look destined for some tough years coming up.

[Stinger226]

10 minutes ago, adam said:

Getting a future 1st also hedges with Fields again. Even if the pick is not the #1 again, they could package the two future 1sts to move up if need be and not lose anything. I am hoping the can trade with a terrible team again like WAS or NE who look destined for some tough years coming up.

On the trade side, if Fields looks good in the last 2 games, if Poles decides to draft a QB high, a team may get desperate for a QB, not in the top 10, and give us a #1 for Fields.. (TB-Denver-Minn-LV-Pitt) Could be 4 QBs in the top 10 this yr. 6 teams in the top 10 could draft a QB