Trade Down Scenarios

[adam]

If the Bears get the first pick and decide to trade out of it, here are some teams with draft capital and a need at QB. First off, I think once you get past 10, it is too much capital, so I will stick to the top 10 for now:

1. ARZ - Currently #2, could want to move up to secure their guy knowing someone will ultimately jump them. The value on something like this is tough, but 2x 2nd rounders would be the value based on the trade value chart.
2. WAS - Currently #3, Howell is benched, and they shedded some salary. This would now cost a future first with the swap and another mid round pick. Another option is the pick swap, Daron Payne and another high pick in 2025 (1st or 2nd).
3. NE - Currently #4, I don't think they will stick with Zappe. Maye seems like their prototypical guy. To move to one would cost a 2025 1st and a 2024 2nd rounder.

4. TEN - Currently #7 - Do they really think Levis is the answer? If not, it would cost a 2025 1st, and a 2026 1st at the very least.

5. NYJ - Currently #9 - This would cost a 2025 1st, 2026 1st, and a 2nd 2025.

6. ATL - Currently #10 - This would cost a bundle, probably a 2025 1st, 2026 1st, and a 2027 1st (or a current star player). ATL could also go the Fields route and trade their 2nd and 3rd for him instead. 

LVR is interesting at #13, but not to move to #1, but to jump to #8, if the Bears stay there. That would net a 2nd rounder and a mid round pick. That is also interesting it they decided they wanted Fields instead. A team like LVR could trade a 2nd and a 3rd for him as well.

For Fields in general, teams like LVR or ATL feel like the only teams with both a 2nd and 3rd round pick in the range that would make sense for Fields. This does not include all the other teams listed above minus NYJ who does not have a 2nd rounder in 2024.

[Pixote]

47 minutes ago, adam said:

If the Bears get the first pick and decide to trade out of it, here are some teams with draft capital and a need at QB. First off, I think once you get past 10, it is too much capital, so I will stick to the top 10 for now:

1. ARZ - Currently #2, could want to move up to secure their guy knowing someone will ultimately jump them. The value on something like this is tough, but 2x 2nd rounders would be the value based on the trade value chart.
2. WAS - Currently #3, Howell is benched, and they shedded some salary. This would now cost a future first with the swap and another mid round pick. Another option is the pick swap, Daron Payne and another high pick in 2025 (1st or 2nd).
3. NE - Currently #4, I don't think they will stick with Zappe. Maye seems like their prototypical guy. To move to one would cost a 2025 1st and a 2024 2nd rounder.

4. TEN - Currently #7 - Do they really think Levis is the answer? If not, it would cost a 2025 1st, and a 2026 1st at the very least.

5. NYJ - Currently #9 - This would cost a 2025 1st, 2026 1st, and a 2nd 2025.

6. ATL - Currently #10 - This would cost a bundle, probably a 2025 1st, 2026 1st, and a 2027 1st (or a current star player). ATL could also go the Fields route and trade their 2nd and 3rd for him instead. 

LVR is interesting at #13, but not to move to #1, but to jump to #8, if the Bears stay there. That would net a 2nd rounder and a mid round pick. That is also interesting it they decided they wanted Fields instead. A team like LVR could trade a 2nd and a 3rd for him as well.

For Fields in general, teams like LVR or ATL feel like the only teams with both a 2nd and 3rd round pick in the range that would make sense for Fields. This does not include all the other teams listed above minus NYJ who does not have a 2nd rounder in 2024.

All of your proposed trades seem spot on, under past history. However, I honestly feel that if Poles puts this #1 pick (crossing my fingers) up for bids, with the current market for a possible franchise QB, a team will overbid and give us a bounty in exchange, beyond the reasonable scenarios you listed.

On a side note, with the investment they have in AR, do you think NYJ would trade up for a top QB prospect? 

[adam]

3 hours ago, Pixote said:

All of your proposed trades seem spot on, under past history. However, I honestly feel that if Poles puts this #1 pick (crossing my fingers) up for bids, with the current market for a possible franchise QB, a team will overbid and give us a bounty in exchange, beyond the reasonable scenarios you listed.

On a side note, with the investment they have in AR, do you think NYJ would trade up for a top QB prospect? 

My only concern is how far is Poles willing to drop from #1. If the Bears win another game, their pick is outside of the top 10 (probably 11), so does he really want to drop both picks outside of the top 5? My thinking is he will want a top 5 pick which would obviously limit who he can deal with.

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, adam said:

My only concern is how far is Poles willing to drop from #1. If the Bears win another game, their pick is outside of the top 10 (probably 11), so does he really want to drop both picks outside of the top 5? My thinking is he will want a top 5 pick which would obviously limit who he can deal with.

I dont think he drops out of the top 5, he will have choices. Would he trade with LV, they are currently 13. If we could get Max Crosby, 3 1s 24-25-26 and a second 24-25?

[Stinger226]

Seen a scenario, Washington-3-35- 2025 1st and Daron Payne. 

[adam]

7 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Seen a scenario, Washington-3-35- 2025 1st and Daron Payne. 

That would be a haul. #3 could still be MHJ, so you could then use or trade down again with the Bears pick. #35 recoups the Sweat trade, and you still go into 2025 with an extra 1st and an extra 2nd.

[BearFan PHX]

9 hours ago, adam said:

That would be a haul. #3 could still be MHJ, so you could then use or trade down again with the Bears pick. #35 recoups the Sweat trade, and you still go into 2025 with an extra 1st and an extra 2nd.

and if you were set on a rookie QB, where does that fit in?

[adam]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

and if you were set on a rookie QB, where does that fit in?

If you are going for a rookie QB in 2024, you have to keep #1 for the QB and get a WR with the Bears pick, then hope you can trade Fields for a 2nd to address one of the other spots not filled in FA: Edge/DL/TE/C/S

[BearFan PHX]

12 minutes ago, adam said:

If you are going for a rookie QB in 2024, you have to keep #1 for the QB and get a WR with the Bears pick, then hope you can trade Fields for a 2nd to address one of the other spots not filled in FA: Edge/DL/TE/C/S

thats the most straightforward way.

If you want someone other than Caleb Williams, you might be OK trading out of #1 to #3 or something and taking a QB there? Not as big a haul as going to #11, but still.

[adam]

QB - Fields, WR - 1st Round Pick, Edge - Other 1st Round Pick, S - 2nd Round Pick after trade back, C - 3rd Round Pick

QB - Williams/Maye/Daniels, WR - 1st Round Pick, C - 3rd Round Pick, S - Jackson restructured (1/2 the cap hit), Edge - Addressed in FA

[Stinger226]

23 minutes ago, adam said:

QB - Fields, WR - 1st Round Pick, Edge - Other 1st Round Pick, S - 2nd Round Pick after trade back, C - 3rd Round Pick

QB - Williams/Maye/Daniels, WR - 1st Round Pick, C - 3rd Round Pick, S - Jackson restructured (1/2 the cap hit), Edge - Addressed in FA

I think he addrersses C and FS in FAgency, both positions wont command big salaries as compared to getting an edge or another 3 T. He will draft ones but not sure that early.

[adam]

3 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I think he addrersses C and FS in FAgency, both positions wont command big salaries as compared to getting an edge or another 3 T. He will draft ones but not sure that early.

Who is available via FA for Center? I thought it was a weak group.

[Stinger226]

Connow Williams, Miami, 27

Andre James, LV, 27

Lloyd Cushenberry, Denver, 27

The only PFF rating I saw this yr at midseason had them rated top 10 in league , that could be different now , I dont have a PFF script.

Others Tyler Bladasz, Cowboys, 27--Evan Brown, Seahawks, 27

Connor Williams is the prize, Miami has cap issues, they are 40 mil in the hole next yr. Tua only has one more yr left on his contract, they may want to extend him. He is injured right now and have a second round pick with 3 yrs experience playing right now. They will move on from Williams who made 8 mil this yr. He has a torn, ACL, not sure of recover time for that injury. 

Another thought is Drew Dalman from Atlanta. He was ranked second in the PFF rating. If we traded Justin to Atl, we could get him thrown in on the deal. He has one more yr on his rookie deal.

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Connow Williams, Miami, 27

Andre James, LV, 27

Lloyd Cushenberry, Denver, 27

The only PFF rating I saw this yr at midseason had them rated top 10 in league , that could be different now , I dont have a PFF script.

Others Tyler Bladasz, Cowboys, 27--Evan Brown, Seahawks, 27

Connor Williams is the prize, Miami has cap issues, they are 40 mil in the hole next yr. Tua only has one more yr left on his contract, they may want to extend him. He is injured right now and have a second round pick with 3 yrs experience playing right now. They will move on from Williams who made 8 mil this yr. He has a torn, ACL, not sure of recover time for that injury. 

Another thought is Drew Dalman from Atlanta. He was ranked second in the PFF rating. If we traded Justin to Atl, we could get him thrown in on the deal. He has one more yr on his rookie deal.

OK cool, thanks. Williams looks like he is the highest rated on PFF with a 86.5 PFF grade (#2 in NFL), but with only 497 snaps. Cushenberry is at 72.0 with 940 snaps, and James is 70.0 with 824 snaps.  Those all would be massive upgrades over Patrick at 51.0. 

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, adam said:

OK cool, thanks. Williams looks like he is the highest rated on PFF with a 86.5 PFF grade (#2 in NFL), but with only 497 snaps. Cushenberry is at 72.0 with 940 snaps, and James is 70.0 with 824 snaps.  Those all would be massive upgrades over Patrick at 51.0. 

Williams is the  most physical and Miami is cap strapped next year. Not sure how long the injury takes to heal.

[BearFan PHX]

PFF is random, especially when it comes to linemen. Remember when they told us Charles Leno was one of the best OTs in the NFL? We were watching him be a turnstyle every week and those PFFers said he was the best.

Obviously there are major flaws in their methodology that render their opinions completely unreliable. Like a coin flip, they can be right or wrong at any given moment.

[jason]

On 12/28/2023 at 9:28 AM, adam said:

5. NYJ - Currently #9 - This would cost a 2025 1st, 2026 1st, and a 2nd 2025.

 

This is the most intriguing answer to me. Could give the Bears back-to-back picks in the first round. 

[jason]

On 12/29/2023 at 5:11 PM, adam said:

If you are going for a rookie QB in 2024, you have to keep #1 for the QB and get a WR with the Bears pick, then hope you can trade Fields for a 2nd to address one of the other spots not filled in FA: Edge/DL/TE/C/S

Disagree. If they get that massive haul from Washington, you could do something like this:

• 3 - MHJr, WR, OSU
• 9 - Olu, OT, PSU
• 35 - Penix or Nix, QB

That would be great. Gives Fields one superstar weapon, one elite blocker, who together should reshape the offense. Meanwhile Pe(Nix) sits for a year and matures. If Fields pans out, great. If not, hand the reigns to Pe(Nix) and draft another Day 2 QB in 2025 for insurance.

[BearFan PHX]

Draftbuzz, who do a pretty good draft ranking and analysis have 5 QBs in the top 19;

2 Williams

5 Maye

8 Daniels

9 Penix

19 Nix

I dont see any QBs dropping into the second round or even the last 10 picks of the first round.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

48 minutes ago, jason said:

Disagree. If they get that massive haul from Washington, you could do something like this:

• 3 - MHJr, WR, OSU
• 9 - Olu, OT, PSU
• 35 - Penix or Nix, QB

That would be great. Gives Fields one superstar weapon, one elite blocker, who together should reshape the offense. Meanwhile Pe(Nix) sits for a year and matures. If Fields pans out, great. If not, hand the reigns to Pe(Nix) and draft another Day 2 QB in 2025 for insurance.

Im not huge on Penix but I would be 100 percent good with this. 

[BearFan PHX]

Penix is really good. The main knocks on him are that hes 24 and may not have a lot more room to progress like a younger QB, and hes has ACL injuries.

Getting him with the 35th pick would be a great value, but he will be gone way before then.

[adam]

8 hours ago, jason said:

Disagree. If they get that massive haul from Washington, you could do something like this:

• 3 - MHJr, WR, OSU
• 9 - Olu, OT, PSU
• 35 - Penix or Nix, QB

That would be great. Gives Fields one superstar weapon, one elite blocker, who together should reshape the offense. Meanwhile Pe(Nix) sits for a year and matures. If Fields pans out, great. If not, hand the reigns to Pe(Nix) and draft another Day 2 QB in 2025 for insurance.

Sure, I was implying one of the top guys that use that #1 pick. There will be an opportunity to get one of the 2nd or 3rd Tier QBs as long as they can trade out of one of those 1st round picks.

[Stinger226]

19 minutes ago, adam said:

Sure, I was implying one of the top guys that use that #1 pick. There will be an opportunity to get one of the 2nd or 3rd Tier QBs as long as they can trade out of one of those 1st round picks.

Because Poles got a haul last year, he could trade the top pick for more this yr. He will take that , his fall back is Fields, and still draft a QB somewhere. He is not stuck on ( he has to take a QB) he found Bagent as a UDFA. Ewers- Pratt-Milton are not first round picks, he could draft one in the second round. 

example: Michael Pratt 6'3" 220 lbs 

• 2,406
• TD

  22
• INT

  5
• QBR

  65.5

[Stinger226]

As people look as this team as bad, we're not that team anymore. If we win the last 2 games we will be 6-2 in the last 8 games. We aren't the losers of 0-4 start anymore.

Poles thinks we can win now, unless he drafts Joe Burrows ( who is that), why would he draft a QB that could take 3 yrs to be good? Fields was a pick 11. He expects us to win now. Actually with Fields we could 6-2 right now. You add more blue chip players, you're only going to enhance whoever the QB is worth. He's going to get a haul like last year, still draft a prospect at QB to develop, and win now. This makes the most sense looking at it from Poles perspective. Just think if he gets to trade back twice with in the top 5 picks. I can't even fathom the haul he gets.

[Daventry]

Would Bagent be worth giving a shot at starting quarterback?  It would be great to see a bit more of him