Trade Down Scenarios

[Stinger226]

5 minutes ago, Daventry said:

Would Bagent be worth giving a shot at starting quarterback?  It would be great to see a bit more of him 

He has to prove himself in pre season games. Needs to develop more. Browning was around for 5 years and just got his chance to play now. He did well in developing a few years. Although if Poles thinks he could end up being good, he may not draft a QB this year. 

[killakrzydav]

No, too early.

 

 

[killakrzydav]

The ideal scenario is with Washington who has a 3T we could use

[AZ54]

1 Bears

2 Wash need QB

3 NE needs QB

4 AZ could take a QB but they definitely won't trade up to do that.  If they grab one, I'd say they are more likely to grab a QB in the 2nd Rd or after a trade down.  

5 NY Giants...toss up here.    

6 Tenn.  Drafted a QB last year and expect they will develop Levis.

7 Chargers ... top need HC

8 Jets.   they'll add talent and try to win with Rodgers although it would be awesome to see a pouty Rodgers if they drafted a QB.  

9 Falcons.   Fits last year's blueprint for a trade down to a tee.  The one player I'd take off their roster is Safety Jessie Bates.  I'd even be kind enough to send them Eddie Jackson in exchange.  

This doesn't really shake out well for the Bears if you want a mega trade down.  Plus like last year we likely have Williams/Maye as 1a/1b.  There will need to be a clear #1 at QB.   

However, if you consider we might not want to drop back any further than 2 or 3 it is perfect.  The price to move up to 1 overall isn't exorbitant to guarantee your preference at QB.   

 

 

[adam]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

1 Bears

2 Wash need QB

3 NE needs QB

4 AZ could take a QB but they definitely won't trade up to do that.  If they grab one, I'd say they are more likely to grab a QB in the 2nd Rd or after a trade down.  

5 NY Giants...toss up here.    

6 Tenn.  Drafted a QB last year and expect they will develop Levis.

7 Chargers ... top need HC

8 Jets.   they'll add talent and try to win with Rodgers although it would be awesome to see a pouty Rodgers if they drafted a QB.  

9 Falcons.   Fits last year's blueprint for a trade down to a tee.  The one player I'd take off their roster is Safety Jessie Bates.  I'd even be kind enough to send them Eddie Jackson in exchange.  

This doesn't really shake out well for the Bears if you want a mega trade down.  Plus like last year we likely have Williams/Maye as 1a/1b.  There will need to be a clear #1 at QB.   

However, if you consider we might not want to drop back any further than 2 or 3 it is perfect.  The price to move up to 1 overall isn't exorbitant to guarantee your preference at QB.   

ARZ does have 2x first rounders, #4 and #17 right now. I would not rule them out.

To me it looks like it could be WAS (to guarantee they get their guy), NE to ensure they don't miss out on the top 2 (and get their guy), then ATL is definitely a high probable option and LVR currently at 11 would take a haul to drop all the way to 11, but they do have Maxx Crosby. NYJ and ARZ are wild cards. 

The team that finishes 3rd out of WAS or NE is going to be the most likely candidate to leapfrog the #2 team to get their guy. WAS seems more desperate and NE seems more conservative in trade respects. The Bears already traded with both teams (Harry-NE, Sweat-WAS). ATL has the Pace connection to some players that could be added to the trade. 

[jason]

On 12/31/2023 at 10:02 AM, Stinger226 said:

As people look as this team as bad, we're not that team anymore. If we win the last 2 games we will be 6-2 in the last 8 games. We aren't the losers of 0-4 start anymore.

Poles thinks we can win now, unless he drafts Joe Burrows ( who is that), why would he draft a QB that could take 3 yrs to be good? Fields was a pick 11. He expects us to win now. Actually with Fields we could 6-2 right now. You add more blue chip players, you're only going to enhance whoever the QB is worth. He's going to get a haul like last year, still draft a prospect at QB to develop, and win now. This makes the most sense looking at it from Poles perspective. Just think if he gets to trade back twice with in the top 5 picks. I can't even fathom the haul he gets.

Excellent point. Why would Poles want to start over on something he’s been carefully building?

He should trade the #1. And again if necessary. Load up on picks, get talent everywhere, increase the odds of someone panning out, and build a total team.

[AZ54]

2 minutes ago, jason said:

Excellent point. Why would Poles want to start over on something he’s been carefully building?

He should trade the #1. And again if necessary. Load up on picks, get talent everywhere, increase the odds of someone panning out, and build a total team.

Lots of merit to the double trade down scenario especially if you are willing to give up on MHJr.  If ever there was a draft to bypass that talent it's this one with several very good WR prospects.    

[Pixote]

I just read an article on bearswire.usatoday.com where executives were asked what the Bears would receive for the #1 pick in this years draft. The consensus was it would be huge, greater than last year's trade.

Quote

Those execs believe the price to get to No. 1 could be two future first-rounders on top of this year’s pick, along with a variation of a Day 2 pick and/or a premium veteran player on a manageable contract.

Sounds like a good opening bid. LOL

[Stinger226]

Lets say we trade back to 3, someone might want to trade for MHJ, that would be another trade down with value as AZ54 stated. Lots of good WRs in this draft, not a problem finding one or just take Bowers and add one later. 

POLES HAS SEVERAL OPTIONS AND EVERYONE ONE OF THEM COULD BE A GOOD CHOICE, THERE IS NO LOSER CHOICES. 

 There is a possiblity he could trade back 3 times with someone wanting Daniels or Penix, this yr could be crazy good for picking up multi blue chip players. Poles seems to have the nack for spetacular  player acquisition.

[AZ54]

41 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Lets say we trade back to 3, someone might want to trade for MHJ, that would be another trade down with value as AZ54 stated. Lots of good WRs in this draft, not a problem finding one or just take Bowers and add one later. 

POLES HAS SEVERAL OPTIONS AND EVERYONE ONE OF THEM COULD BE A GOOD CHOICE, THERE IS NO LOSER CHOICES. 

 There is a possiblity he could trade back 3 times with someone wanting Daniels or Penix, this yr could be crazy good for picking up multi blue chip players. Poles seems to have the nack for spetacular  player acquisition.

Just using last years draft there are 3 positions for which a team is willing to trade up into the top 5 picks.   QB, LT, Edge.   There are no top 5 edge players, at least not yet.  Ideally I’d love to have two picks between 5 and 10.  
 

As badly as I’d like to see MHJr I know adding another good edge rusher could put our D into the elite category.   I’m thinking I’d close that deal then put the rest of the draft toward the offense.  

I’ve been on board with keeping Fields for some time.  How he plays this last game could close the deal for me on any need to hedge the bet via a backup QB.  At least until day 3.  If Poles feels the same way then just throw open the trade windows early like he did last year.   Teams already know his price and that he is willing to trade as far back as 9.  It also removes  the negative impact of the Bears scouting the QB class and then saying we don’t like them now we’ll trade the pick.    That puts Atlanta and Vegas in play.  Which could be enough to get Wash or NE  to overpay.  

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Lets say we trade back to 3, someone might want to trade for MHJ, that would be another trade down with value as AZ54 stated. Lots of good WRs in this draft, not a problem finding one or just take Bowers and add one later. 

POLES HAS SEVERAL OPTIONS AND EVERYONE ONE OF THEM COULD BE A GOOD CHOICE, THERE IS NO LOSER CHOICES. 

 There is a possiblity he could trade back 3 times with someone wanting Daniels or Penix, this yr could be crazy good for picking up multi blue chip players. Poles seems to have the nack for spetacular  player acquisition.

If the Bears traded down intending to get MHJ and someone jumped them to get him, I would expect Poles to try to trade down again. Let someone else come up to get a QB, then go wild, grab a WR (Odunze), DL (Newton), and TE (Bowers) with additional draft capital. 

What is so crazy is the Bears are starting with 2x first rounders and 0 second rounders, but any trade in the first is going to net a future 1st and probably a current 2nd. So if you trade down a second time (so 1 to 3, then 3 to 10), you could add ANOTHER 1st rounder in 2025 (that would be 3), and a 2nd 2nd rounder in 2024 while still have two picks in the top 12 (5 picks in top 75). Then have 3x 1st rounders and 2x 2nd rounders in 2025. MADNESS.

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Poles seems to have the nack for spetacular  player acquisition.

This is why I want him to trade out of the number one pick.  If he can swap that with a team he feels will suck, he can possibly get us the number one pick again.  There are two players in this draft that I covet, MHJ and Bowers.  If can can get a haul, plus one of the above, I would call it a win.

[Stinger226]

30 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

This is why I want him to trade out of the number one pick.  If he can swap that with a team he feels will suck, he can possibly get us the number one pick again.  There are two players in this draft that I covet, MHJ and Bowers.  If can can get a haul, plus one of the above, I would call it a win.

Look at odds of last yr when Lovie handed us the #1, then the odds of getting it again. Could easily get us a top 5 next yr and another one in the mid teens plus ours. Its insane to think of that but it could happen. He would be crowned best GM ever.(maybe)

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

If the Bears traded down intending to get MHJ and someone jumped them to get him, I would expect Poles to try to trade down again. Let someone else come up to get a QB, then go wild, grab a WR (Odunze), DL (Newton), and TE (Bowers) with additional draft capital. 

What is so crazy is the Bears are starting with 2x first rounders and 0 second rounders, but any trade in the first is going to net a future 1st and probably a current 2nd. So if you trade down a second time (so 1 to 3, then 3 to 10), you could add ANOTHER 1st rounder in 2025 (that would be 3), and a 2nd 2nd rounder in 2024 while still have two picks in the top 12 (5 picks in top 75). Then have 3x 1st rounders and 2x 2nd rounders in 2025. MADNESS.

We already used the second for Sweat, better than any second rounder you're getting to drafting. 

 We have to remember that the Smith trade got us Pickens then he picked up TJ and Edmunds. The Carolina pick was DJ, Wright, Stevenson, this yrs one ,and a second in 2025. His ego will force him to try to top that. Perfect scenario, 10 teams need a QB, if not more. 

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

We already used the second for Sweat, better than any second rounder you're getting to drafting. 

Yes, that's why they don't have a second. I was saying with any trade back will probably net them a 2nd, so if they traded back from 1 to 3, and somehow missed on MHJ, I could see them trading back again which could yield a second 2nd rounder, which would be pretty wild. 

[BearFan PHX]

and in a way, our current 2nd first round pick, is like a super elevated second rounder, being that it is currently our second selection.

If we decide to stay with Fields, the scenarios are very seductive. So many ways to go, and all of them are great.

[jason]

5 hours ago, adam said:

If the Bears traded down intending to get MHJ and someone jumped them to get him, I would expect Poles to try to trade down again. Let someone else come up to get a QB, then go wild, grab a WR (Odunze), DL (Newton), and TE (Bowers) with additional draft capital. 

What is so crazy is the Bears are starting with 2x first rounders and 0 second rounders, but any trade in the first is going to net a future 1st and probably a current 2nd. So if you trade down a second time (so 1 to 3, then 3 to 10), you could add ANOTHER 1st rounder in 2025 (that would be 3), and a 2nd 2nd rounder in 2024 while still have two picks in the top 12 (5 picks in top 75). Then have 3x 1st rounders and 2x 2nd rounders in 2025. MADNESS.

And if all goes well, it works perfectly as the peak year. 2024 should see Fields have his best season yet, get re-signed, DJ and new offensive weapons gel, the defense gets even better, and the Bears make the playoffs. Then 2025 is the make it or break it year, where the Bears fill one or two holes by drafting blue chips and/or trading for a mega-FA.

[adam]

57 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

and in a way, our current 2nd first round pick, is like a super elevated second rounder, being that it is currently our second selection.

If we decide to stay with Fields, the scenarios are very seductive. So many ways to go, and all of them are great.

It's almost like we already traded up to #10 from the 30s. 

Also, the way Poles has drafted with guys like Stevenson and Dexter this year and Gordon and Brisker last year. He really seems like he is a value/BPA guy, which would lead me to believe he would be more inclined to trade back and accumulate capital and more darts to throw at the board. If he keeps drafting like he has, and they can gain a 2nd (or two) by trading back, I think he will do it.

[adam]

1 minute ago, jason said:

And if all goes well, it works perfectly as the peak year. 2024 should see Fields have his best season yet, get re-signed, DJ and new offensive weapons gel, the defense gets even better, and the Bears make the playoffs. Then 2025 is the make it or break it year, where the Bears fill one or two holes by drafting blue chips and/or trading for a mega-FA.

Two things to add, if he trades back and gains another first (say in 2025), they would have the draft capital to move up for a QB in case Fields regresses or gets hurt. Hedging in back to back years. 

If Poles can keep flipping a first to acquire a future first, he can keep the roster cost controlled better than pretty much every other team. He is gaining an extra 5th year on every first he acquires. It might not sound like a big deal, but when that player is on that 5th year option vs a full extension, that is a decent amount of savings. It's at least a mid-level vet starter ($10M or so) for that year. So if he was somehow able to pull off another trade back, that would be at least 2 extra 5th year options. So even if they had to start paying Fields $40-50M, they would at least have some cushion with so many of their starters on rookie deals.

In 2026, Fields would be on his 1st year of an extension, and the Bears could have at least 30 key contributors on rookie deals. That's crazy to think of really.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

It's almost like we already traded up to #10 from the 30s. 

Also, the way Poles has drafted with guys like Stevenson and Dexter this year and Gordon and Brisker last year. He really seems like he is a value/BPA guy, which would lead me to believe he would be more inclined to trade back and accumulate capital and more darts to throw at the board. If he keeps drafting like he has, and they can gain a 2nd (or two) by trading back, I think he will do it.

interesting point. so far that has been him.

as we reach capacity, he might be a trade up for a few impact players kind of guy, I dunno, but that's probably 2025 not 2024.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, adam said:

Yes, that's why they don't have a second. I was saying with any trade back will probably net them a 2nd, so if they traded back from 1 to 3, and somehow missed on MHJ, I could see them trading back again which could yield a second 2nd rounder, which would be pretty wild. 

I meant that our 2nd round pick is Sweat, we just got it in november instead of waiting for the draft. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

12 hours ago, Pixote said:

I just read an article on bearswire.usatoday.com where executives were asked what the Bears would receive for the #1 pick in this years draft. The consensus was it would be huge, greater than last year's trade.

Sounds like a good opening bid. LOL

I do think if they traded with Raiders for example - you should get 2 future firsts plus. 

[AZ54]

I can't find the link right now on Youtube but I saw where some mock had us trade back with Wash and get both of their 2nd Rd picks (our former pick being one of them).   Then he had us trade back again, I think with Atlanta, and pick up their 2025 1st, along with 2024 2nd and 3rd Rd picks.   In the end he had 8 picks in the top 100.  One of those, #100, was a comp pick for losing Ian Cunningham which I think happens this year.   All total we had 10 picks by the end of the 5th round, plus plenty of draft picks heading into 2025 including two 1st Rd, and two 2nd Rd, to hedge the bet on the QB or just keep piling on the talent.   That is a very realistic scenario.     

In 18 months we've come far enough as a roster that at first it's hard to imagine 10 rookies making this roster.  Who is leaving?  Ok with a bit of thought you can figure out 10 to lose but there will be names in that list we were counting on going into 2023, including Whitehair and Jackson.  The point is that if we follow this trade down scenario there will be some serious competition in training camp this year.  That's not even including the FAs we will add.  As long as Poles takes value in the draft as he's done for 2 years you can't help but come out of this offseason with a very good roster and some good depth.   

Now that means we give up on Harrison Jr. and both LT talents.  If you think we can get by with Braxton Jones improving enough into his 3rd season to be a good starter (not Pro Bowl), which I think is a reasonable expectation, then there's no reason not to bypass those talents.   FIelds' escapability allows us to save money at LT which offsets his contract by 10-20%.     

   

 

 

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I can't find the link right now on Youtube but I saw where some mock had us trade back with Wash and get both of their 2nd Rd picks (our former pick being one of them).   Then he had us trade back again, I think with Atlanta, and pick up their 2025 1st, along with 2024 2nd and 3rd Rd picks.   In the end he had 8 picks in the top 100.  One of those, #100, was a comp pick for losing Ian Cunningham which I think happens this year.   All total we had 10 picks by the end of the 5th round, plus plenty of draft picks heading into 2025 including two 1st Rd, and two 2nd Rd, to hedge the bet on the QB or just keep piling on the talent.   That is a very realistic scenario.     

In 18 months we've come far enough as a roster that at first it's hard to imagine 10 rookies making this roster.  Who is leaving?  Ok with a bit of thought you can figure out 10 to lose but there will be names in that list we were counting on going into 2023, including Whitehair and Jackson.  The point is that if we follow this trade down scenario there will be some serious competition in training camp this year.  That's not even including the FAs we will add.  As long as Poles takes value in the draft as he's done for 2 years you can't help but come out of this offseason with a very good roster and some good depth.   

Now that means we give up on Harrison Jr. and both LT talents.  If you think we can get by with Braxton Jones improving enough into his 3rd season to be a good starter (not Pro Bowl), which I think is a reasonable expectation, then there's no reason not to bypass those talents.   FIelds' escapability allows us to save money at LT which offsets his contract by 10-20%.     

   

 

 

I'm not sure Poles drafts a LT. Braxton Jones is the feather in his cap. A 5 th rounder that started day one. He has improved over both seasons. Of course a high end LT would be better but redrafting  positions this soon? Plus like you said, not paying a big contract.

[Stinger226]

This is fantasy as far as tradebacks but I like Fantasy. We end up with pick 9 and 13.