Trade Down Scenarios

**dawhizz** · January 4

You probably want to make sure you get at least one future 1st and probably two in any trade down, just in case Fields falters next year and you need ammunition to get a QB. I doubt this is very realistic, but here’s what I did in one of the mock draft simulator sites with a bunch of trades:

WR Ohio State
17.

EDGE UCLA
20.

S Miami (FL)
39.

OC Georgia
66.

DT Miami (FL)
76.

QB Washington
101.

TE Kansas State
107.

CB Iowa State
138.

OT Utah
147.

RB USC
152.

OG Boston College
2025 ARI 1st
2025 TB 1st

**adam** · January 13

The trade down scenario seems like the best option, even if you consider the cap. With a trade down, using a similar deal as CARs, the Bears will get at least an extra 2nd in 2024 and 1st in 2025 with a contract controlled vet.

2nd Rounder - Rookie Edge ($1.5M) vs Vet Edge ($20M) = $18M in savings
2025 1st - Rookie DT ($4M) vs Vet DT ($20M) = $16M in savings
Cost controlled Vet ($20M) vs new Vet FA signing ($24M) = $4M in savings
Total savings in trade: $38M

Fields 2026 ($50M) vs Rookie QB in 2026 ($12M) = $38M in net loss

So a trade down actually is a break even decision compared to drafting a QB at #1.

If the Bears select MHJ at #1, that would be the most costly course of action as the Bears would not gain any other draft picks to offset Fields salary.

So the only options I see from a roster building perspective is to select a QB at #1 and use the available cap to sign 2 blue chip vets at key positions, while trading Fields to recoup a pick OR keep Fields and trade down enough to get a similar package as the CAR trade.

**Mongo3451** · January 13

46 minutes ago, adam said:

Fields 2026 ($50M) vs Rookie QB in 2026 ($12M) = $38M in net loss

Can Justin overcome, not being able to pay some core players? Jurko went over this and said you lose your all pro guard, safety, DT and recorder depth. You may have to cut an Edmonds or Kmet. Mahomes was able to overcome that last year, but look at this year. Justin ain't it for me. We talk about the things he needs to succeed. Can't pay them if you are paying him.

**ASHKUM BEAR** · January 13

50 minutes ago, adam said:

The trade down scenario seems like the best option, even if you consider the cap. With a trade down, using a similar deal as CARs, the Bears will get at least an extra 2nd in 2024 and 1st in 2025 with a contract controlled vet.

2nd Rounder - Rookie Edge ($1.5M) vs Vet Edge ($20M) = $18M in savings
2025 1st - Rookie DT ($4M) vs Vet DT ($20M) = $16M in savings
Cost controlled Vet ($20M) vs new Vet FA signing ($24M) = $4M in savings
Total savings in trade: $38M

Fields 2026 ($50M) vs Rookie QB in 2026 ($12M) = $38M in net loss

So a trade down actually is a break even decision compared to drafting a QB at #1.

If the Bears select MHJ at #1, that would be the most costly course of action as the Bears would not gain any other draft picks to offset Fields salary.

So the only options I see from a roster building perspective is to select a QB at #1 and use the available cap to sign 2 blue chip vets at key positions, while trading Fields to recoup a pick OR keep Fields and trade down enough to get a similar package as the CAR trade.

I think the Bears can trade down to 3, gain 800 points, so say a future 1st 2025, and a 2024 2nd rd pick.

At 3, you take MHJ, at 9 a DE, LT, or QB.

Round 2, FS or trade down a little a take best C.

Justin counts 6 million in 2024. You make that up by cutting Jackson post june and more with Whitehair. 2025 they will need to get creative, but will have draft picks to replace some expiring contacts like Jenkins and Davis. If they pick up the 5th year option, that puts an additional 25 million against the cap, how much will it raise in 2 years. Here is a projection. They will get a project 18 next and 41 in 2025.

2023 cap - 231,000,000.

2024 proj - 249,000,000.

2025 pro - 272,000,000.

**Stinger226** · January 13

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I think the Bears can trade down to 3, gain 800 points, so say a future 1st 2025, and a 2024 2nd rd pick.

At 3, you take MHJ, at 9 a DE, LT, or QB.

Round 2, FS or trade down a little a take best C.

Justin counts 6 million in 2024. You make that up by cutting Jackson post june and more with Whitehair. 2025 they will need to get creative, but will have draft picks to replace some expiring contacts like Jenkins and Davis. If they pick up the 5th year option, that puts an additional 25 million against the cap, how much will it raise in 2 years. Here is a projection. They will get a project 18 next and 41 in 2025.

2023 cap - 231,000,000.

2024 proj - 249,000,000.

2025 pro - 272,000,000.

If they trade back, there's several blue chip WRs if we didnt end up with Harrison , Nabors is a route perfectionist with great separation.

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Can Justin overcome, not being able to pay some core players? Jurko went over this and said you lose your all pro guard, safety, DT and recorder depth. You may have to cut an Edmonds or Kmet. Mahomes was able to overcome that last year, but look at this year. Justin ain't it for me. We talk about the things he needs to succeed. Can't pay them if you are paying him.

we have a pro bowl Guard? We don't have to worry about money for 2 more years. If we pay JJ, that will be the only expensive signing he makes this off-season. If he brings in some quality in free agency, it will be signings like Edwards, on team favorable contracts.

KC paid Mahomes, Kelce, Chris Jones, Joe Thuney, Jauman Taylor, Justin Reed, Hell they paid Scantling 14 mil. They found a way .

**Pixote** · January 13

The Bears have one of the best, if not THE best salary cap / contract negotiators in the NFL. He will find a way to keep us clean. Thank You Poles for bringing him back. Another brilliant move!

**Mongo3451** · January 13

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

we have a pro bowl Guard?

Jurko was hypothetically speaking from experience. He was essentially saying you pay QB, WR1, both OT, edge and corners. When you pay the QB, you lose out on some of the others.

**adam** · January 13

2 hours ago, Pixote said:

The Bears have one of the best, if not THE best salary cap / contract negotiators in the NFL. He will find a way to keep us clean. Thank You Poles for bringing him back. Another brilliant move!

Cliff Stein is gone:

**ASHKUM BEAR** · January 13

2 hours ago, Pixote said:

The Bears have one of the best, if not THE best salary cap / contract negotiators in the NFL. He will find a way to keep us clean. Thank You Poles for bringing him back. Another brilliant move!

1 minute ago, adam said:

Cliff Stein is gone:

I was starting to type this and you popped in with a new comment haha. I figured you were posting this

**BearFan PHX** · January 13

6 hours ago, adam said:

The trade down scenario seems like the best option, even if you consider the cap. With a trade down, using a similar deal as CARs, the Bears will get at least an extra 2nd in 2024 and 1st in 2025 with a contract controlled vet.

2nd Rounder - Rookie Edge ($1.5M) vs Vet Edge ($20M) = $18M in savings
2025 1st - Rookie DT ($4M) vs Vet DT ($20M) = $16M in savings
Cost controlled Vet ($20M) vs new Vet FA signing ($24M) = $4M in savings
Total savings in trade: $38M

Fields 2026 ($50M) vs Rookie QB in 2026 ($12M) = $38M in net loss

So a trade down actually is a break even decision compared to drafting a QB at #1.

If the Bears select MHJ at #1, that would be the most costly course of action as the Bears would not gain any other draft picks to offset Fields salary.

So the only options I see from a roster building perspective is to select a QB at #1 and use the available cap to sign 2 blue chip vets at key positions, while trading Fields to recoup a pick OR keep Fields and trade down enough to get a similar package as the CAR trade.

Adam the numbers guy! Nice!

I was wondering about this, and it's amazing the numbers wash so closely.

I guess the lesson is - look for talent, the $ comes (a close) second.

**Stinger226** · January 14

2 hours ago, adam said:

Cliff Stein is gone:

This is a business side move, I would suspect our lawyer in toll (Warren) is involved in this move.

**ASHKUM BEAR** · January 14

43 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

This is a business side move, I would suspect our lawyer in toll (Warren) is involved in this move.

Looks like Greg Gabriel is pissed, he is taking a break from the Bears and Twitter. He don't know if Stein was fired or quit but

**DABEARSDABOMB** · January 14

3 hours ago, adam said:

Cliff Stein is gone:

Did they let him go? Or is he leaving for another opportunity?

**adam** · January 14

14 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Adam the numbers guy! Nice!

I was wondering about this, and it's amazing the numbers wash so closely.

I guess the lesson is - look for talent, the $ comes (a close) second.

Those were just examples. The rookie contracts go up less per year than a vet deal as well, so even if a Fields contract may go up a few mil per year, the other deals would offset any increases.

**adam** · January 14

14 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Did they let him go? Or is he leaving for another opportunity?

Based of Greg Gabriel's response on Twitter, he was let go. He said he talked to Cliff last week and there was no indication that he would be leaving the org. He believes it was Warren.

Other theories: Poles didn't necessarily want to trade Roquan or not extend JJ already, but Stein's contracts were the limiting factor. So if JJ gets extended in the next week or so, there may be some legs to this.

**Stinger226** · January 14

3 hours ago, adam said:

Based of Greg Gilbert's response on Twitter, he was let go. He said he talked to Cliff last week and there was no indication that he would be leaving the org. He believes it was Warren.

Other theories: Poles didn't necessarily want to trade Roquan or not extend JJ already, but Stein's contracts were the limiting factor. So if JJ gets extended in the next week or so, there may be some legs to this.

We will never know so it creates speculation. The difference from last year is Warren. This is him starting to flex his muscle on him taking control of everything Bears. He will slowly get more involved as he learns the ropes.

**adam** · January 14

6 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

We will never know so it creates speculation. The difference from last year is Warren. This is him starting to flex his muscle on him taking control of everything Bears. He will slowly get more involved as he learns the ropes.

Everything is speculation until it becomes fact. I am just saying Greg actually talked to Cliff regularly and I think he was his "source" for all his info because he has been going off on Twitter every since this was announced.

**AZ54** · January 14

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

We will never know so it creates speculation. The difference from last year is Warren. This is him starting to flex his muscle on him taking control of everything Bears. He will slowly get more involved as he learns the ropes.

I hope you are wrong.

**AZ54** · January 14

Keeping Fields, double trade down first with AZ @ 4 then Tenn @ 7. Lately I tend to prefer Bowers (plus what I get in trade down) vs. MHJr in top 3. I get more value and I think Bowers is more of a unicorn that helps just as much in the running game as the passing game. Bowers can block LBs and DBs in space far better than MHJr. I can usually still add another really good WR2 prospect in this draft late 1st early 2nd. In this case Odunze fell to me at 21 so that's an easy win. I can also add a good WR3 prospect later.

I love what Latu brings to the edge both in run game and pass rushing. He plays strong yet has lateral quickness very similar to Aiden Hutchinsen. He can rush from the inside too.

Nubin to replace Jackson. Graham Barton is OG prospect but he's played some OC and that's where we move him. Brooks is a solid #2 RB with burst and good contact balance, plus excellent hands. He'll be a legit 3rd down RB for us.

Hudson Clark looks like a good depth addition to safety as I'm not too enamored with Hicks. He's aggressive around the LOS and a little bit of a ball hawk in centerfield. He's also played special teams in college so he'll fit right in there to start in the NFL.

Arizona's 1st in 2025 to keep the ball rolling.

**Mongo3451** · January 14

16 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Keeping Fields, double trade down first with AZ @ 4 then Tenn @ 7. Lately I tend to prefer Bowers (plus what I get in trade down) vs. MHJr in top 3. I get more value and I think Bowers is more of a unicorn that helps just as much in the running game as the passing game. Bowers can block LBs and DBs in space far better than MHJr. I can usually still add another really good WR2 prospect in this draft late 1st early 2nd. In this case Odunze fell to me at 21 so that's an easy win. I can also add a good WR3 prospect later.

I love what Latu brings to the edge both in run game and pass rushing. He plays strong yet has lateral quickness very similar to Aiden Hutchinsen. He can rush from the inside too.

Nubin to replace Jackson. Graham Barton is OG prospect but he's played some OC and that's where we move him. Brooks is a solid #2 RB with burst and good contact balance, plus excellent hands. He'll be a legit 3rd down RB for us.

Hudson Clark looks like a good depth addition to safety as I'm not too enamored with Hicks. He's aggressive around the LOS and a little bit of a ball hawk in centerfield. He's also played special teams in college so he'll fit right in there to start in the NFL.

Arizona's 1st in 2025 to keep the ball rolling.

Funny, I've been thinking the same about Bowers. Four years ago, I did a gap analysis for fantasy football. What I found was pretty cool. I ended drafting Travis Kelce early in the second round. What followed was pure ridicule for drafting a TE that high. He didn't score like a top WR or RB. But my thought was the gap between him and the other TE's. Travis was drafted with the 12th pick of the first round of our draft this year. (By my primary ridiculer)

Anyway, Bowers is that rare TE, at a higher level, of rare, than MHJ. Both would be great, but Bowers would probably have a greater impact for us. (Justin or not)

**BearFan PHX** · January 14

36 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Funny, I've been thinking the same about Bowers. Four years ago, I did a gap analysis for fantasy football. What I found was pretty cool. I ended drafting Travis Kelce early in the second round. What followed was pure ridicule for drafting a TE that high. He didn't score like a top WR or RB. But my thought was the gap between him and the other TE's. Travis was drafted with the 12th pick of the first round of our draft this year. (By my primary ridiculer)

Anyway, Bowers is that rare TE, at a higher level, of rare, than MHJ. Both would be great, but Bowers would probably have a greater impact for us. (Justin or not)

gap - cool way to think about it.

**Stinger226** · January 14

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

Keeping Fields, double trade down first with AZ @ 4 then Tenn @ 7. Lately I tend to prefer Bowers (plus what I get in trade down) vs. MHJr in top 3. I get more value and I think Bowers is more of a unicorn that helps just as much in the running game as the passing game. Bowers can block LBs and DBs in space far better than MHJr. I can usually still add another really good WR2 prospect in this draft late 1st early 2nd. In this case Odunze fell to me at 21 so that's an easy win. I can also add a good WR3 prospect later.

I love what Latu brings to the edge both in run game and pass rushing. He plays strong yet has lateral quickness very similar to Aiden Hutchinsen. He can rush from the inside too.

Nubin to replace Jackson. Graham Barton is OG prospect but he's played some OC and that's where we move him. Brooks is a solid #2 RB with burst and good contact balance, plus excellent hands. He'll be a legit 3rd down RB for us.

Hudson Clark looks like a good depth addition to safety as I'm not too enamored with Hicks. He's aggressive around the LOS and a little bit of a ball hawk in centerfield. He's also played special teams in college so he'll fit right in there to start in the NFL.

Arizona's 1st in 2025 to keep the ball rolling.

I have read a few articles on him (Barton) and he is strong at point of attack and played OC in high school and he's freshman year. They moved him around because of his talent. He would be a perfect surprise pick by Poles.

**Stinger226** · January 14

Bowers is probably going to have an impact on whatever team he goes to. There's. 10 really good WRS in the draft, only one TE.

**AZ54** · January 16

On 1/14/2024 at 3:48 PM, Mongo3451 said:

Funny, I've been thinking the same about Bowers. Four years ago, I did a gap analysis for fantasy football. What I found was pretty cool. I ended drafting Travis Kelce early in the second round. What followed was pure ridicule for drafting a TE that high. He didn't score like a top WR or RB. But my thought was the gap between him and the other TE's. Travis was drafted with the 12th pick of the first round of our draft this year. (By my primary ridiculer)

Anyway, Bowers is that rare TE, at a higher level, of rare, than MHJ. Both would be great, but Bowers would probably have a greater impact for us. (Justin or not)

I put together a post awhile back about elite TEs and what they mean to an offense but I think it got deleted accidentally. So I've been thinking about Bowers for some time. A TE with a 41" vertical leap and runs 4.5 forty (reportedly) is a rare beast. He tracks the ball as well as any receiver, including MHJr.

What has a great TE meant to ....

Brady? He took Gronk out of retirement to help him win another Superbowl. When he didn't have Gronk over the years due to injuries their entire offense suffered.

Purdy has Kittle.

Mahomes has Kelce and when Kelce's not on the field that offense looks a lot different.

Lamar Jackson has a really good receiving TE too in Andrews.

Rivers... Gates

Fouts... Winslow. (I'm old)

I like Kmet and I'm glad we extended his contract but if Tonyan were any good at all blocking or catching this year would have looked so much better. I don't know how many whiffs Tonyan had on blocks that could have broken big plays. He dropped a couple passes one of which was a TD that could have won us a game. If I put Bowers on those blocks our WR screen or RB screen is out of the gate. His receiving speaks for itself and I think he can be a joker that can elevate the rest of the receivers.

**BearFan PHX** · January 16

5 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

I put together a post awhile back about elite TEs and what they mean to an offense but I think it got deleted accidentally. So I've been thinking about Bowers for some time. A TE with a 41" vertical leap and runs 4.5 forty (reportedly) is a rare beast. He tracks the ball as well as any receiver, including MHJr.

What has a great TE meant to ....

Brady? He took Gronk out of retirement to help him win another Superbowl. When he didn't have Gronk over the years due to injuries their entire offense suffered.

Purdy has Kittle.

Mahomes has Kelce and when Kelce's not on the field that offense looks a lot different.

Lamar Jackson has a really good receiving TE too in Andrews.

Rivers... Gates

Fouts... Winslow. (I'm old)

I like Kmet and I'm glad we extended his contract but if Tonyan were any good at all blocking or catching this year would have looked so much better. I don't know how many whiffs Tonyan had on blocks that could have broken big plays. He dropped a couple passes one of which was a TD that could have won us a game. If I put Bowers on those blocks our WR screen or RB screen is out of the gate. His receiving speaks for itself and I think he can be a joker that can elevate the rest of the receivers.

for sure a good TE that you utilize well in the offense can be a huge weapon, and all the great QBs and teams had them. Ever since the west coast routes were discovered, and body position became as important as getting free into space, the big power forwards at TE in the NFL have increased in value to their teams a lot.

Kmet has taken a while for the light to come on, but he seems to be ascending and he is still young. Bowers is another level of athlete though.

And to your point about blocking on the perimeter, why didnt Getsy ever do that? No matter what I say about JF, Getsy is a turd in his own right too.

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