adam Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 So looking at cap space and draft capital this offseason. The Bears are in such a rare position, it may be almost unprecedented. The team has the #1 pick, potentially a second top 10 pick, and over $60M in cap space. Right now, there are 8 teams who are already over the cap with their 2024 contracts. The Saints are in one of the worst positions I have seen a team in, in a long time. They are going to have to make post-June 1 cuts just to field a team and sign their rookies. These teams have no chance of signing anything but vet minimum deals: Saints - $87M over the cap/ 43 players Bills - $43M over the cap/ 44 players Dolphins - $41M over the cap/ 37 players Chargers - $35M over the cap/ 37 players These teams may have room for 1 mid to low end free agent after some cuts and restructures: Broncos - $18M over the cap/ 44 players Cowboys - $16M over the cap/ 48 players Browns - $13M over the cap/ 45 players Steelers - $7M over the cap/ 43 players There are 3 teams under $10M in cap space, so they will need to restructure to sign their rookies and a few FAs. They might have room for 1-2 mid level guys or older vets on a low deal. 49ers - $1.3M cap space/ 44 players Seahawks - $3M cap space/ 40 players Packers - $7.6M cap space/ 43 players That is 11 teams that are basically out of any major free agent signing or big extensions for their own players that are not already done. They can move some money around and restructure to make space, but for the most part, none of these teams are improving through free agency. In terms of draft capital, there are two teams without a 1st round pick in 2024, CAR and CLE. CLE also doesn't have a 4th rounder. CHI, DEN, SEA, and NYJ do not have 2nd rounders, but CHI obviously has 2x 1st rounders negating the lost 2nd rounder. CLE is over the cap and does not have a first round pick. This team will more than likely regress next year the most "on paper". DEN doesn't have a 2nd rounder and is over the cap. SEA doesn't have a 2nd rounder and has minimal cap. In contrast, the Bears have the #1 pick, the #10 pick and currently $60M in cap space (38 players). The Cardinals have the 4th and 17th pick and have $53M (44 players). They are the only 2 teams with 2x first rounders, and ironically both have over $50M in cap space. Based on offseason resources alone, the Bears have the most Cap+Draft resources in 2024, followed by the Cardinals. The Browns are 32nd, the Saints are 31st, followed by the Broncos, Seahawks, Bills, Dolphins, Chargers, Panthers and Jets. Just based on league parity, these 9 teams will all likely regress in 2024 to some extent, and are very unlikely to improve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 Can you edit that and add the number of players rostered next to the cap space/value? If you are $40m over the cap and only have 40 players counting in that calculation then you have to find a way to sign 13 players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 Poles has set the habit of making one big contract per offseason. It may be bringing back JJ in a tagged spot. If he lets him walk, it may be a pass rusher or a FS. Jackson and Whitehair are gone, so that will give us more to work with. Centers can be gotten for 10 mil a yr and there are always a lot of Ss on the market. I think he drafts another weapon and pass rusher early in the draft. Then fills in with needs, more OL depth, DL depth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 3 Author Report Share Posted January 3 3 hours ago, AZ54 said: Can you edit that and add the number of players rostered next to the cap space/value? If you are $40m over the cap and only have 40 players counting in that calculation then you have to find a way to sign 13 players. I added the players. Basically if need be, they could add vet min guy for about $1M per year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 So I did some additional research on this. Using ELO to measure the current roster, then taking into account the draft capital compared to the average plus the cap space compared to the average. I tried to figure out how much this team can improve based solely on the average outcomes of a draft pick and FA acquisition. This is what I came up with: 1. The Bears are currently 18th in ELO. 2. They have the 3rd most draft capital (though the #1 pick is probably worth more). 3. They have one of the highest effective cap spaces available as of today. 4. Their projected ELO for 2024 should increase by 57 putting them in 11th in the NFL (which would be 10-11 wins). 4a. The margin of error is around +/- 10, so 10th-12th is the projected ranking without any other context. 5. The 5 best teams to consider a trade with for a 2025 1st would be CAR, DEN, NYJ, WAS, and NE as they should finish 2024 in the bottom 5 of the NFL. 5a. What I find interesting is at least 3 of those teams need a QB (DEN, WAS, NE) and obviously WAS and NE are drafting #2 and #3 respectively. REFs: https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-ratings/ https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-teams-2024-offseason-resources-cap-space-2024-nfl-draft https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/power_rankings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 11 Author Report Share Posted January 11 What's interesting to me is, if the Bears trade down, they might even end up with more "resources" in 2024 AND 2025 while the team trading up will lose those. Look at CAR for example. They are actually projected to be worse next year than this year as they won't get a blue chipper 1st round rookie like 20+ other teams. Additionally, their cap space is only slightly above average which will help them improve a little bit, but that won't offset the loss of the #1 overall pick. Now one caveat, even if CAR is the worst team, that doesn't necessarily mean they will finish with the worst record but they should finish bottom 3. Injuries, unexpected performances (Nacua), and strength of schedule all have an impact on the projected outcomes that are not taken into account here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 30 Author Report Share Posted January 30 Revisiting this. So in 2023, only 1 player in the top 13 in terms of cap hits didn't make the playoffs this year, Ryan Tannehill, who had a $36.6M cap hit (2nd in the NFL). The other 12 made it, including Mahomes at #1, Goff at #3, and Lamar at #13. So the thing about not being able to win without a QB on a rookie deal is false when 3 out of 4 finalists are in the top 13. Interestingly enough, Moore was 22nd in the NFL in terms of cap hit this season. Going into 2024, the Bears are looking amazing. Currently, their highest cap hit is Sweat who is 44th in the league, followed by Edmunds at #64, Jackson at #104 (likely cut), and Moore who is now #123. All the while, there will be 7 players over $40M, and Bakhtiari at $39.99M. Watson is at $63.97M, lmao, good luck Cleveland. Prescott is at $59.45M, and Mahomes is at $57.3M. Next year is going to be really telling for KC. KC basically has to cut a $20M player from their roster. Here are the 30M Men for 2024 (which does not include 2024 Free Agency): 2024 Cap Hit Rankings PLAYER POS CAP HIT 1 Deshaun Watson QB $63,977,000 - LMAO Cleveland Clowns CLE 2 Dak Prescott QB $59,455,000 DAL 3 Patrick Mahomes QB $57,358,269 KC 4 Kyler Murray QB $51,857,000 - That's basically $10M per foot ARI 5 Matthew Stafford QB $49,500,000 LAR 6 Daniel Jones QB $47,105,000 - This is what NFL purgatory looks like NYG 7 Josh Allen QB $47,056,281 BUF 8 David Bakhtiari LT $39,994,925 - $10M per snap GB 9 Khalil Mack OLB $38,517,500 - 1 of 4 Chargers with a cap hit over $32M - enjoy 7-10 LAC 10 Joey Bosa OLB $36,611,666 LAC 11 Derek Carr QB $35,700,000 - Buyer's remorse has set in. NO 12 Russell Wilson QB $35,400,000 - Does he still have his own office? DEN 13 Keenan Allen WR $34,717,500 - The highest paid WR in the NFL for cap hits? LAC 14 Aaron Donald DT $34,166,666 LAR 15 Mike Williams WR $32,460,000 - The 2nd highest paid WR in the NFL for cap hits? Chargering! LAC 16 Lamar Jackson QB $32,400,000 BAL 17 Jared Goff QB $31,650,064 DET 18 Trent Williams LT $31,524,638 SF 19 Tyreek Hill WR $31,323,750 MIA 20 Geno Smith QB $31,200,000 - he had a good season, but was it that good? SEA 21 T.J. Watt OLB $30,418,694 PIT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 lol @ $10M perf too LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 30 Author Report Share Posted January 30 4 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said: lol @ $10M perf too LOL Lol it's true. That is a lot of money for a little man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killakrzydav Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 Chargers seem to be in cap space hell. Wonder why homie went there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 31 Author Report Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, killakrzydav said: Chargers seem to be in cap space hell. Wonder why homie went there? They are going to purge and rebuild. It gives him 3 years+ before any will care with results. It also gives him an instant excuse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixote Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 44 minutes ago, adam said: They are going to purge and rebuild. It gives him 3 years+ before any will care with results. It also gives him an instant excuse. No, No, No. If their fans are like Bear fans, then a purge and rebuild has to be finished by the end of year two or he will be roasted and run out of town with a bus ticket for Ann Arbor. LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASHKUM BEAR Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 2 hours ago, killakrzydav said: Chargers seem to be in cap space hell. Wonder why homie went there? Before the Chiefs and Ravens game, Harbaugh was gleeing over Herbert. I'd say that was a good reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixote Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 17 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said: Chargers seem to be in cap space hell. Wonder why homie went there Despite being in cap hell, they have a much better roster in place to begin their rebuild than we did. I suspect that they players will be excited to play for Harbaugh (I assume) and will be willing to rework contracts to help get things on the right foot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 31 Report Share Posted January 31 8 minutes ago, Pixote said: Despite being in cap hell, they have a much better roster in place to begin their rebuild than we did. I suspect that they players will be excited to play for Harbaugh (I assume) and will be willing to rework contracts to help get things on the right foot. right, and they have a QB in place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 Here is a video giving a realitic view of our 2024 roster. offense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 3 Report Share Posted February 3 Here is onbe for the defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.