The Chicago Bears are on the clock! OFFSEASON OPEN THREAD!

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

I wonder if Waldron can find ways to use Velus instead of just him being cut. He has something you can't train for, speed.

With the new kickoff rules, he will at least be the KR this year. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

With the new kickoff rules, he will at least be the KR this year. 

I almost always agree with your analysis, mostly just because its excellent LOL but in this case I'm not sure. I don't think the new rules really make muffing a kickoff any less dangerous or costly? And Velus coughs the ball up on contact a lot too. And I think he's a dummy LOL

But he is definitely a fast dummy!

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I almost always agree with your analysis, mostly just because its excellent LOL but in this case I'm not sure. I don't think the new rules really make muffing a kickoff any less dangerous or costly? And Velus coughs the ball up on contact a lot too. And I think he's a dummy LOL

But he is definitely a fast dummy!

He's definitely a dummy, but he can be a Cordarrelle Stewart. Stewart was highly thought of before they figured out he couldn't adapt to the NFL.  He found a niche as a ramrod.  Jones can be the same for us.

[BearFan PHX]

3 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

He's definitely a dummy, but he can be a Cordarrelle Stewart. Stewart was highly thought of before they figured out he couldn't adapt to the NFL.  He found a niche as a ramrod.  Jones can be the same for us.

I hope so! It's a whole new rule and staff, so if they keep him, I'll give him a fresh look in the new circumstances, but i won't be shocked if we want to move on from him either?

You can't teach speed, and he's cheap, so why not give them a chance to see what they can do with him? But I sure hope they have a plan B too.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

I hope so! It's a whole new rule and staff, so if they keep him, I'll give him a fresh look in the new circumstances, but i won't be shocked if we want to move on from him either?

You can't teach speed, and he's cheap, so why not give them a chance to see what they can do with him? But I sure hope they have a plan B too.

I think he's here until Poles finds someone that contributes more. Without more picks , probably not this year. Waldron gave Travis Homer plays in 2022 , 30 combined.

[BearFan PHX]

48 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I think he's here until Poles finds someone that contributes more. Without more picks , probably not this year. Waldron gave Travis Homer plays in 2022 , 30 combined.

Jones may get some reps at WR, and who knows what Waldron can get him to do well, but I was talking about KR here.

[adam]

10 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I almost always agree with your analysis, mostly just because its excellent LOL but in this case I'm not sure. I don't think the new rules really make muffing a kickoff any less dangerous or costly? And Velus coughs the ball up on contact a lot too. And I think he's a dummy LOL

But he is definitely a fast dummy!

He really is a wasted pick, but compared to a guy like Claypool, it was Poles' draft pick. He clearly treats them differently as Velus is still on the roster and still has 2 years left on his rookie deal. If he is still this ineffective, I could see them cutting or trading him this season.

Velus had less snaps on offense than Claypool, and Claypool wasn't even on the team for half the season. Velus also had less snaps than Taylor. He also had less snaps than he had his rookie year. So his entire usage was down.

However, when given the chance, he was pretty good at KR. He has 38 career kickoff returns, and averages over 27 yards per return. He also did not return a punt in 2023. The muffs and fumbles were from his rookie year. He feels more like an arena football player, and this kickoff seems better suited for his athleticism compared to a normal kickoff. I honestly think he would be better at it than he is at anything else (low bar I know), but they have to use him for something.

 

[adam]

5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Jones may get some reps at WR, and who knows what Waldron can get him to do well, but I was talking about KR here.

I hope not, he would take reps away from Moore, Allen, etc, etc. That would be a last resort type of thing. 

[Pixote]

I think there will be games where this new KO ruling is the deciding factor. Teams that figure out how to use it to gain field position and KO return TDs will have a huge advantage.

Is Hightower capable? Last year, we were ranked 22nd in special teams. That's not a wow factor. I was not impressed with his resume when he was first hired. 

There will be teams who will figure out plays off of this new ruling to maximize its potential.

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, Pixote said:

I think there will be games where this new KO ruling is the deciding factor. Teams that figure out how to use it to gain field position and KO return TDs will have a huge advantage.

Is Hightower capable? Last year, we were ranked 22nd in special teams. That's not a wow factor. I was not impressed with his resume when he was first hired. 

There will be teams who will figure out plays off of this new ruling to maximize its potential.

I bet our old boy Dave Toub comes up with something...

[Pixote]

59 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I bet our old boy Dave Toub comes up with something...

Yep, I miss him, he was awesome. Should have gotten a HC gig by now.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

22 hours ago, adam said:

That is an interesting way to look at it but it is the RB position group, which is completely devalued anyway. Also, Roschon was a backup his entire collegiate career, so he would not compare PFF rating-wise to starters. 

This was more as a "for example" especially how subjective (aka guessing game) this all is.  Sure I get that RBs are "devalued" but apparently enough "experts" think highly enough of them to rate them based on their raw abilities.  Similar to how last year you reminded us of how the volume of throws that Bagent while in college should be considered in how he would do in the NFL.

Interestingly, the subjectiveness is enough that sites like Sporting News and CBS Sports (links below) both rank MHJ as the number one player available over Caleb.  CBS Sports even goes a step further and ranks the positions overall in comparison to their group.  For example:  DE Khalid Duke for Kansas State is ranked #1 in the position but #262 overall on their "Big Board of 390 players available.  

Wouldn't it be something if Poles bought into the idea of MHJ being enough of a prospect that he'd go with him over Caleb?  ?  

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-draft-prospects-2024-top-100-rankings-best-players/9a5959cd101d2a8c439568a0

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospect-rankings/

[adam]

It looks like the Bears had dinner with Caleb last night and they had some players there:

 

 

[dawhizz]

https://x.com/albertbreer/status/1775710141234475267?s=46&t=cLrE-3h2uw3rACxhQZYEvg
 

Caleb was there today with a larger group including edge Dallas Turner and OT Tyler Guyton. Rome Odunze visits tomorrow. 

[Stinger226]

Everyone knows how much I liked Justin , I am starting to buy into Caleb with the same kind of intensity. 

If your not sold yet , this may push you in that direction. 

WATCH THE VIDEO its short

 

[Daventry]

Interesting read of overall success of quarterback number one picks.  Looks to me like a pretty high success rate.  Hard to bend these stats really, but arguments could be had around how success is measured.

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2024/4/3/24118088/examining-the-history-of-quarterbacks-nfl-draft-cam-newton-caleb-williams-andrew-luck-joe-burrow
 

 

[adam]

1 hour ago, Daventry said:

Interesting read of overall success of quarterback number one picks.  Looks to me like a pretty high success rate.  Hard to bend these stats really, but arguments could be had around how success is measured.

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2024/4/3/24118088/examining-the-history-of-quarterbacks-nfl-draft-cam-newton-caleb-williams-andrew-luck-joe-burrow
 

 

For the guys in the article, I would rate them in this order coming out, by tiers:

Luck / Williams, Burrow, Lawrence / Goff, Newton, Mayfield, Murray / Winston, Young

Young was not the consensus #1, either was Winston as Mariota went right after him. I feel like Mayfield and Murray were brothers from another mother. Newton was seen as a dual threat QB, but there were passing concerns. Lawrence was the consensus #1, so was Burrow, which feels very similar to Williams.

Now compare the team's record the year prior to drafting them:

IND 2-14
CHI 7-10
CIN 2-14
JAX 1-15
LAR 7-9 (traded up with Titans)
CAR 2-14
CLE 0-16
ARZ 3-13
TB 2-14
CAR 7-10 (traded up with Bears)

So the Bears are the only team with 4 or more wins that didn't have to trade up for the pick. 
 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, adam said:

For the guys in the article, I would rate them in this order coming out, by tiers:

Luck / Williams, Burrow, Lawrence / Goff, Newton, Mayfield, Murray / Winston, Young

Young was not the consensus #1, either was Winston as Mariota went right after him. I feel like Mayfield and Murray were brothers from another mother. Newton was seen as a dual threat QB, but there were passing concerns. Lawrence was the consensus #1, so was Burrow, which feels very similar to Williams.

When you say "consensus pick" how does one qualify?  You mention that neither Young nor Winston were "consensus" because in the case of Winston, he had Mariota picked right after him.  In theory if Williams is picked #1 and Daniels is picked #2 would that title still apply to Williams?  

Secondly I'm intersted in how you broke up your tiers especially with Mayfield and Murray being in the same one (or third tier if I'm reading correctly). Both those guys, and Williams, having been products of the Lincoln Riley offense. 

In fact here's how they all did:
 

• Mayfield (three years at OU*):  808/1157 12,292 yds (69.8 pct)  10.6 YA  119 TDs 21 INTs  189.4 rating
• Murray  (two years at OU**):    278/398    4,720 yds (69.8 pct)  11.9 YA   45 TDs   7 INTs   203.3 rating
• Williams (two years at USC):    599/888     8,170 yds (67.5  pct)  9.2  YA   72 TDs  10 INTs  169.2 rating

* Riley was the OC/QB coach for OU from 2015-16 then HC starting in 2017 (overlap with Mayfield)

**  Murray overlapped with Mayfield in 2017 (at OU) so his sample size is smaller as a starter for the one year he was (2018)

[Alaskan Grizzly]

9 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Everyone knows how much I liked Justin , I am starting to buy into Caleb with the same kind of intensity. 

If your not sold yet , this may push you in that direction. 

It does appear Swifty is starting to buy into Caleb. 

[killakrzydav]

Man. I am right there with you Stingy. I've dumped JF for future greatness.  I can hope the best for him apart from our franchise.

[killakrzydav]

Tyler Guyton has a 30 visit yesterday with Turner and CW. He’s the very first player that’s not mocked around any of our picks and could indicate a trade down 

[adam]

14 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Everyone knows how much I liked Justin , I am starting to buy into Caleb with the same kind of intensity. 

If your not sold yet , this may push you in that direction. 

WATCH THE VIDEO its short

 

61 TD - 1 INT in the Red Zone is insane. That does not include his rushing TDs. 

[Stinger226]

53 minutes ago, adam said:

61 TD - 1 INT in the Red Zone is insane. That does not include his rushing TDs. 

He broke down his late game stats and red zone. That's exactly what you want at QB---BOOM never heard anyone mention those stats before.

No matter which way we go at 9 , it's a win for us. 

Bookend Tackles

3 # 1 WRs

Dominate defense with an edge

Those are all wins.

[adam]

5 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

When you say "consensus pick" how does one qualify?  You mention that neither Young nor Winston were "consensus" because in the case of Winston, he had Mariota picked right after him.  In theory if Williams is picked #1 and Daniels is picked #2 would that title still apply to Williams?  

Secondly I'm intersted in how you broke up your tiers especially with Mayfield and Murray being in the same one (or third tier if I'm reading correctly). Both those guys, and Williams, having been products of the Lincoln Riley offense. 

In fact here's how they all did:
 

• Mayfield (three years at OU*):  808/1157 12,292 yds (69.8 pct)  10.6 YA  119 TDs 21 INTs  189.4 rating
• Murray  (two years at OU**):    278/398    4,720 yds (69.8 pct)  11.9 YA   45 TDs   7 INTs   203.3 rating
• Williams (two years at USC):    599/888     8,170 yds (67.5  pct)  9.2  YA   72 TDs  10 INTs  169.2 rating

* Riley was the OC/QB coach for OU from 2015-16 then HC starting in 2017 (overlap with Mayfield)

**  Murray overlapped with Mayfield in 2017 (at OU) so his sample size is smaller as a starter for the one year he was (2018)

It's probably subjective and hard to go back to look, but when Winston was selected, it was not known until draft day. Most of the consensus picks are known ahead of time, like Luck, Burrow, and Lawrence. Some teams even announce it ahead of time for some reason. The Bears aren't there yet with Williams but if he only does one 30 visit, it is pretty clear that the Bears let him know their intentions. That was not the intent of the tiers, but really where they should fall based on performance+situation. 

On Winston.

Here is a Bucs fan thread before the draft:

My favorite: "Im an FSU fan, I went to FSU and if we take Winston i will be freakin pissed"

Young was not the consensus #1, so I put him with Winston (who was also not the consensus #1) and because they both would need the perfect situation to succeed in the NFL. Young needs a brickwall, max protect. If he gets that, he can actually be pretty good, but his ceiling is probably top-15 QB with his floor being out of the league after his rookie deal. Winston also needed an offensive scheme that would limit his risky passes and he went to the exact opposite.

In comparing Murray, Mayfield, and Williams, leading up to the draft, there was nowhere near the hype for Mayfield or Murray. In 2018, Darnold was the #1 for most of the draft cycle and that didn't change until right before the draft: https://www.dawgsbynature.com/2018/4/25/17281908/browns-cooling-on-sam-darnold-weighing-josh-allen-and-baker-mayfield

Murray was the best option available between him, Daniel Jones, and Dwayne Haskins, but his size was always an issue. 

I just feel like Williams, Burrow, and Lawrence are in the same tier based on the pre-draft analysis. Almost everyone had those guys as the best QB of the draft, then there was everyone else. Most people knew CIN and JAX were drafting them well before the draft, just like Williams. 

[adam]

Also, sheer numbers don't mean anything unless you watch the games. I remember Colt Brennan from Hawaii put up gaudy numbers every season, then was drafted in the 6th round.

I have now watched several games of each of the top QBs. I like them all, but Williams stands out. He makes all the throws, and then has so many wow passes. If I didn't know their ages or injury history, I would probably go Williams, Penix, Daniels, Nix, Maye, then McCarthy. They all may turn out good/great, but I think when you are looking at ceilings and floors, Williams' highs are above everyone elses.