The Chicago Bears are on the clock! OFFSEASON OPEN THREAD!

[Stinger226]

42 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think I could see moving down from 9 but only as low as your grade of blue chip talent is. If you have 15 blue chippers and a bunch in same spot and positional flexibility than go ahead and move down 4-5 spots. 
 

With that said - what do bears get if they moved from 9 to 15? How far down do they have to move where you are getting a big enough pick back. Like I’m not moving down 4 spots to get a 4th rounder. 

The draft chart value would be 300 difference which would be pick 60 or combo of lower picks. If there is competition for a QB still there, 2 nd rounder, 6 th round pick and and a future 3 thrown in. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think I could see moving down from 9 but only as low as your grade of blue chip talent is. If you have 15 blue chippers and a bunch in same spot and positional flexibility than go ahead and move down 4-5 spots. 
 

With that said - what do bears get if they moved from 9 to 15? How far down do they have to move where you are getting a big enough pick back. Like I’m not moving down 4 spots to get a 4th rounder. 

I agree that trading a blue chipper for a bunch of mid round players is no bargain. I feel the same about passing on a #1 pick QB too. So we agree.

The Rich Hill trade value chart is the most up to date model, it's based on real modern trade data , and is a lot better than the older Jimmy Johnson one,

It says moving from 9 to 15 is worth about the 4th or 5th pick of the 3rd round. And if there is a specific player falling, especially a QB, the value can increase.

But probably not enough to get JPJ - I think that has to come from a trade for Justin Fields. My guess is Fields is worth about what it would take to snag JPJ in the draft with nothing left over. Best case - Pittsburgh's first rounder #20 is probably about where I think JPJ is gonna go.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

[Pixote]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I agree that trading a blue chipper for a bunch of mid round players is no bargain. I feel the same about passing on a #1 pick QB too. So we agree.

The Rich Hill trade value chart is the most up to date model, it's based on real modern trade data , and is a lot better than the older Jimmy Johnson one,

It says moving from 9 to 15 is worth about the 4th or 5th pick of the 3rd round. And if there is a specific player falling, especially a QB, the value can increase.

But probably not enough to get JPJ - I think that has to come from a trade for Justin Fields. My guess is Fields is worth about what it would take to snag JPJ in the draft with nothing left over. Best case - Pittsburgh's first rounder #20 is probably about where I think JPJ is gonna go.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

It's the first time I have seen or heard of the Rich Hill version of the trade value chart. It's amazing how you can have it altered to emphasize the Bears. I have bookmarked it for future reference. Thanks for posting the link.

I knew we had limited picks after round 1 this year, which was disappointing. Our picks on this chart reinforce my belief that Poles will be pulling off some trades. He loves building through the draft (which is why I love Poles), and if he doesn't trade number 1, #9 is toast. LOL.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Pixote said:

It's the first time I have seen or heard of the Rich Hill version of the trade value chart. It's amazing how you can have it altered to emphasize the Bears. I have bookmarked it for future reference. Thanks for posting the link.

I knew we had limited picks after round 1 this year, which was disappointing. Our picks on this chart reinforce my belief that Poles will be pulling off some trades. He loves building through the draft (which is why I love Poles), and if he doesn't trade number 1, #9 is toast. LOL.

yeah the Hill chart is awesome. It's much more accurate, and it comes from the actual data.

For trades, rule of thumb is a 2025 pick is worth one round less because you have to wait a year for it.

I love trading down, but I also love having impact players at key positions! It all depends how the board falls I guess, if a great player is there at a position of need like WR, OT or DL, or if we love Bowers, I could see us standing pat. But if the draft falls so that running backs, linebackers, quarterbacks and cornerbacks are the value picks at #9, we are definitely trading down.

And if the scouts have a nice long list of sleepers, we might trade #9 down, pick up a JPJ type and still get a swing or two at some other guys.

Plus, if we are taking a QB at #1, it stands to reason we'd have other picks from having traded Justin too, so we could use those. And if we keep Justin, then we'll get more picks trading back the #1 pick too.

I think our draft and trade possibilities all depend on three things:

1) who are our best QB options including rookies and Fields
2) what we can get in free agency
3) how the draft falls on the day

Somewhere in all of that, I assume we will get a new center, and probably at least one other OL too, maybe more
We'll also get a FS for sure.
We'll also add at least one new QB, no matter what else happens.
I cant see us not getting at least 2 new WRs
We'll find a DE, maybe a stud but at least one for the rotation
If there is a stud 3T we will try to take him, but if not, we are still getting at least one more for the rotation
We might resign Billings and or Jones if need be for this year
We will add a running back. I really like Foreman, but if he isn't back, they'll get another.
They might look to pick up a TE too. Again, stud if he falls, or situational.

So we have a need for quality starters at
QB(?), OC, FS, WR

And we can use more talent at
OG, OT, DE, DT, TE, WR, RB

I am assuming we sign or tag Jaylon Johnson too in this.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

I think we end up with an early 2nd and 3rd for Fields so once that is done I suspect we feel better about the number of picks we have. 

[Stinger226]

If we stand pat with picks 1 + 9, I don't see how we get our our needs filled. Our picks are 1 + 9 +75 + 110 + 122 + 142.

Last year we got starters in rounds one and two. Wright, Dexter, Stevenson. 

The rest were quality back ups Pickens, R Johnson, T Scott, Sewell, T Smith. Bell got rifled off the PS, and Williamson is on the practice squad. There could be future starters in their but at least another year away. So at best he may add 3 starters, may get lucky with a later pick but won't be in 2024. 

Even if we trade Fields, that's a second at best, with one more starter. With all the negativity thrown on Justin , no way anyone will give a one for Justin.If we take QB with 1 or 9, he won't be looked on to start right away. Stroud excelling last year is an outlier, not the norm.  So he sits. One will be a WR , a center, DL, OL or S. 

I think we get a OC and S in free agency but still will draft those positions. 

We just don't have enough picks in the draft which is why I think he trades back.

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

So it did hit me - I presume Caleb, Maye and Daniels go in top 8 picks. That would leave JJ, Penix and Nix as the next 3.  Penix and Nix are older so my guess is they fall out of round 1 or end up going later in round 1 (say qb needy team trades up to snag and ensure they have 5th year option - 2nd rounders don’t get that). 
 

So that leaves McCarthy as the one guy who could go top 15. After the Bears pick - you have the Jets (need a qb but shocked if they took one) followed by Vikings, Raiders, and Broncos. Three teams who are very likely to take a qb. If you are Raiders or Broncos - if you are worried you are calling Bears or Jets to move up. If Bears were open for business this wouldn’t be terrible - especially if it was one of Raiders or Broncos that moved up. I don’t suspect Jets or Vikings are taking a wideout that early - so means you have a decent shot at moving down and still getting one of top wideouts or top dline (I will guess oline is gone as Jets take one). 

[Stinger226]

The NFL just set the cap total today and we now have over 80 mil in cap space. That puts us 3 rd as team total.

[BearFan PHX]

11 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

So it did hit me - I presume Caleb, Maye and Daniels go in top 8 picks. That would leave JJ, Penix and Nix as the next 3.  Penix and Nix are older so my guess is they fall out of round 1 or end up going later in round 1 (say qb needy team trades up to snag and ensure they have 5th year option - 2nd rounders don’t get that). 
 

So that leaves McCarthy as the one guy who could go top 15. After the Bears pick - you have the Jets (need a qb but shocked if they took one) followed by Vikings, Raiders, and Broncos. Three teams who are very likely to take a qb. If you are Raiders or Broncos - if you are worried you are calling Bears or Jets to move up. If Bears were open for business this wouldn’t be terrible - especially if it was one of Raiders or Broncos that moved up. I don’t suspect Jets or Vikings are taking a wideout that early - so means you have a decent shot at moving down and still getting one of top wideouts or top dline (I will guess oline is gone as Jets take one). 

I see what youre saying - good analysis!

[BearFan PHX]

Waldron's press conference was very interesting.

Obviously the press is going to try to ask sideways questions to reveal what Justin's future may be, so Waldron had to be ready to play defense. But he did it in a unique way.

Usually someone in his position would be vague and avoid the questions, but Waldron took them head on, and left clear hints that we WERE keeping Justin AND that we WEREN'T. When the question centered around Justin, he asnwered like we were keeping him, and when it centered around Williams, he acted like that's the way they were going. He even threw in bread crumbs that implied we would take a rookie who wasn't Williams.

A really interesting way to handle it. But as sportwriters do their thing today, theyre going to go with excerpts that make it sound like we are going one way or another, so don't be fooled. All comments in context, he left bread crumbs for every option. Pretty smart.

[Mongo3451]

Just watched Waldren.  It interesting how he continually used words like adapt, adjust and flexible.  Flus used those in his presser, as well, and they happen to be what Getsy was not. 

I love that Waldren has called plays before.  I also love that his contemporaries followed him here from the Seahawks.  Just viewing his presser shows how much more polished he is than Getsy.

How bout the new look Flus?  I didn't recognize him at first.  Looking good kid...

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

Waldron's press conference was very interesting.

Obviously the press is going to try to ask sideways questions to reveal what Justin's future may be, so Waldron had to be ready to play defense. But he did it in a unique way.

Usually someone in his position would be vague and avoid the questions, but Waldron took them head on, and left clear hints that we WERE keeping Justin AND that we WEREN'T. When the question centered around Justin, he asnwered like we were keeping him, and when it centered around Williams, he acted like that's the way they were going. He even threw in bread crumbs that implied we would take a rookie who wasn't Williams.

A really interesting way to handle it. But as sportwriters do their thing today, theyre going to go with excerpts that make it sound like we are going one way or another, so don't be fooled. All comments in context, he left bread crumbs for every option. Pretty smart.

He definitely left them - but last year - it seemed pretty clear they were all-in on Justin and consistently talked about having to be blown away.  It came up a ton - this year - it came up at the end of season press conference, but we really haven't heard much since.  It also seems like Field(s) isn't in the building and hasn't had a ton of dialogue. I really expect he'll be traded by the league new year and realistically more like by the end of next week.  I think Poles wants to move quick and not let this drag out.  Bird in hand and don't find out the market moves against you.

Additionally - acquiring team(s) with new head coaches can get to work with Fields beginning in April - so I would think they'd want to have stuff done fast, but more than that, I feel like Poles is a players GM and he recognizes how good Field(s) has been from a lockeroom / character perspective and wants to do the right thing and get him somewhere fast so he can get playbooks and get to work and be as successful as possible.  

Heck - look at how quickly he was to move Ejax and Whitehair - two guys who were quality veterans for this club for a long time. Easy moves - but a lot of franchises will let them drag on.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Heck - look at how quickly he was to move Ejax and Whitehair - two guys who were quality veterans for this club for a long time. Easy moves - but a lot of franchises will let them drag on.  

In the meantime, Jaylon Johnson still waits.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Flus used those in his presser, as well, and they happen to be what Getsy was not. 

If memory served he suggested Getsy was more the issue on offense.  
 

And Swifty picked up on some of those “bread crumbs” PHX alluded to (2:46 mark in particular).
 

 

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Just watched Waldren.  It interesting how he continually used words like adapt, adjust and flexible.  Flus used those in his presser, as well, and they happen to be what Getsy was not. 

I love that Waldren has called plays before.  I also love that his contemporaries followed him here from the Seahawks.  Just viewing his presser shows how much more polished he is than Getsy.

How bout the new look Flus?  I didn't recognize him at first.  Looking good kid...

agree with all of this. Especially Flus' new look. It's not just cosmetic either, he has a more serious vibe doesnt he? Like this offseason kicked his butt and he realizes this isnt just easy going and fun. Good to see. Its almost like he's a little bit angry and keeping it inside. Good.

I liked Waldron's energy too. He feels like a leader.

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

He definitely left them - but last year - it seemed pretty clear they were all-in on Justin and consistently talked about having to be blown away.  It came up a ton - this year - it came up at the end of season press conference, but we really haven't heard much since.  It also seems like Field(s) isn't in the building and hasn't had a ton of dialogue. I really expect he'll be traded by the league new year and realistically more like by the end of next week.  I think Poles wants to move quick and not let this drag out.  Bird in hand and don't find out the market moves against you.

Additionally - acquiring team(s) with new head coaches can get to work with Fields beginning in April - so I would think they'd want to have stuff done fast, but more than that, I feel like Poles is a players GM and he recognizes how good Field(s) has been from a lockeroom / character perspective and wants to do the right thing and get him somewhere fast so he can get playbooks and get to work and be as successful as possible.  

Heck - look at how quickly he was to move Ejax and Whitehair - two guys who were quality veterans for this club for a long time. Easy moves - but a lot of franchises will let them drag on.  

oh for sure. Im not saying that i dont think Justin is going to be traded - I absolutely do - I was just commenting on the technique that Wldron used to duck the questions. I hadnt seen that approach before. Usually everyone just tries to avoid any overtones, but he was slinging them out all over the place and they were completely contradictory. I think Waldron is a good strategist. And that was entertaining to see.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

If memory served he suggested Getsy was more the issue on offense. 

And Swifty picked up on some of those “bread crumbs” PHX alluded to (2:46 mark in particular).
 

Waldron left lots of contradictory bread crumbs, and the reporters are going to feast on them, each out of context of the others, to support any narrative, but it's funny because you cant say one overtone implies what were going to do because he said turned around and said other ones that supported the exact opposite direction. It was very clever. Hes a game player for sure. I like Waldron. I'll bet he will be the first rock/paper/scissors winner we've had calling plays on either side of the ball in a long time. The press conference solidified it for me - he's a competitive MF and he loves playing mind games. Love it.

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

In the meantime, Jaylon Johnson still waits.  

With the increase in cap space that will happen right after the combine which is next week.

[Stinger226]

5 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Just watched Waldren.  It interesting how he continually used words like adapt, adjust and flexible.  Flus used those in his presser, as well, and they happen to be what Getsy was not. 

I love that Waldren has called plays before.  I also love that his contemporaries followed him here from the Seahawks.  Just viewing his presser shows how much more polished he is than Getsy.

How bout the new look Flus?  I didn't recognize him at first.  Looking good kid...

Getsy always scripted the first 12 plays and did well but him adapting in game was terrible. To his credit, he's never called plays before so he's learning too. I also like he has experience with success. Getsy would never take blame for anything, and I'm sure that caused a disconnect with Justin.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

21 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

With the increase in cap space that will happen right after the combine which is next week.

They are tagging him and hopefully can find a middle ground. 

[Mongo3451]

18 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Getsy always scripted the first 12 plays and did well but him adapting in game was terrible. To his credit, he's never called plays before so he's learning too. I also like he has experience with success. Getsy would never take blame for anything, and I'm sure that caused a disconnect with Justin.

?

[Pixote]

I just read that Caleb Williams doesn't plan to have an agent representing himself. It was a very foolish move, IMO, and one I suspect was supported, if not because of his father.

It's not unheard of. R Smith didn't have an agent resulting in Poles being unable to come to terms with him, thus traded to the Ravens. Lamar Jackson didn't have an agent during his draft, which is why many think he wasn't selected until pick 32.

 

[Stinger226]

7 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

They are tagging him and hopefully can find a middle ground. 

I've always thought that but with the cap going up at high rates over the next few years, I can see him paying an extra 3 to 4 mil and be done with it. 

[adam]

I'm back. Was out of the net for a business trip. Did I miss anything? ?

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I'm back. Was out of the net for a business trip. Did I miss anything? ?

welcome home