The Chicago Bears are on the clock! OFFSEASON OPEN THREAD!

[BearFan PHX]

54 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

And I do agree - in "Da Haul" scenario, where Bears end up with 2 top 10 picks this year, 2 2nd rounders, plus 2 extra FRP next year, and 2 extra 2nd rounders, the Bears financially are getting 6 extra 1st/2nd round picks over course of this year and next year). When you think about cap situations and locking in that many picks for the next 4-5 years, that is the equivalent to a "rookie year" QB contract, thus you really shouldn't have any concern with the impact a Justin Fields (or massive FA signing) would have on you.  You also still have every ability to use one of those picks on trying to find the next QB - while knowing they will walk into an organization that should look VERY stable with blue-chip talent all around it (even if some of the picks don't hit).  

So in reality - "Da Haul" gives you 6 extra 1st and 2nd round picks (2 extra FRP, 4 extra 2RP's) plus positions yourself you to have cap space like a team with a rookie QB (even if you paid a QB) because the value of having so many high round picks allows you to have more FA cap space as you otherwise would.  

The challenge will be 4-5 years down the road - Poles has to be smart and know how to play his hand and decide who to extent vs. who to trade early so they effectively manage their cap space (and quite frankly - consistently leverage the draft capital they leveraged to continue to multiply).  Kind of like a good investor can turn their first million into 100 million way faster cause they have enough starting capital.  

and it's all extremely valuable. the only thing more valuable would be a Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes.

Im not saying that's who WIlliams is. I have a lot of film to watch before i make my guess. But if he is, he is worth passing on the haul.

And i wasnt making a purely financial argument. At the end of the day youre happy to pay players who excel and are young. Like Montez Sweat, or DJ Moore. You just dont want to be tied down long term with large contracts to players who are good but not great. But if they are great, then they are what the money is for.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

9 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

and it's all extremely valuable. the only thing more valuable would be a Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes.

Im not saying that's who WIlliams is. I have a lot of film to watch before i make my guess. But if he is, he is worth passing on the haul.

And i wasnt making a purely financial argument. At the end of the day youre happy to pay players who excel and are young. Like Montez Sweat, or DJ Moore. You just dont want to be tied down long term with large contracts to players who are good but not great. But if they are great, then they are what the money is for.

I think of it more like - if reality is - picking QB's is really a bit of a crapshoot - than just build the better team and have the bullets.  I still have zero problem with stick at 1, trade down to 13 with raiders to pick up a 2nd rounder - than draft either a wideout at 13 and a linemen with 2nd rounder (or with the pick(s) we get for Fields or do the opposite and take an olinemen at 13 and wideout(s) later.  

[BearFan PHX]

I think that a true top 2 in the league QB is worth whatever it takes. If I knew that Williams or Maye was one of those guys, I would easily walk away from the trade, or any trade unless it included a top 2 QB.

Your point about now knowing is fair, but without a top 2 QB, youre not reliably and consistently going to the super bowl or winning it. So there is tremendous value in a 66% chance lottery ticket on a top 2 QB. You can build your team out all you like, but without one of those top QBs, youre just a playoff team, but not really in the hunt. So you cant win it all without one, or getting some stupid luck along the way, and you cant count on that, or repeat it.

To me, as large a haul as that is, if you assume you need one of those QBs at any price, there are two reasons to trade the #1.

1) You dont think Williams or any rookie QB is a 66% chance to be a top 2 QB

2) You think more than one QB in this draft has a 66% chance to be a top 2 QB.

and possibly

3) You think someone other than Williams is the one with the 66% chance to be a top 2 QB AND youre sure the team picking at #1 doesnt think the same. And that's a real gamble.

But I dont believe in the plan of building a team around a lesser QB as a plan to consistently get to and win superbowls.

Seven of the last ten superbowls were won by Mahomes or Brady. And one more by Peyton Manning.

The two years a non top QB won the superbowl, only one beat one of the top QBs (Eagles beat Patriots)

I think you can get lucky or unlucky in the league. Brady and Mahomes went/go to the superbowl consistently but not every year. If you build a team around a lesser QB, you might get lucky one year and miss having to face Mahomes. But that's not a plan.

And honestly, thats less likely than that a QB you believe in and draft ends up a bust. It's much more likely that your super team with a lesser QB doesnt ever get you there and win it.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

14 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think that a true top 2 in the league QB is worth whatever it takes. If I knew that Williams or Maye was one of those guys, I would easily walk away from the trade, or any trade unless it included a top 2 QB.

Your point about now knowing is fair, but without a top 2 QB, youre not reliably and consistently going to the super bowl or winning it. So there is tremendous value in a 66% chance lottery ticket on a top 2 QB. You can build your team out all you like, but without one of those top QBs, youre just a playoff team, but not really in the hunt. So you cant win it all without one, or getting some stupid luck along the way, and you cant count on that, or repeat it.

To me, as large a haul as that is, if you assume you need one of those QBs at any price, there are two reasons to trade the #1.

1) You dont think Williams or any rookie QB is a 66% chance to be a top 2 QB

2) You think more than one QB in this draft has a 66% chance to be a top 2 QB.

and possibly

3) You think someone other than Williams is the one with the 66% chance to be a top 2 QB AND youre sure the team picking at #1 doesnt think the same. And that's a real gamble.

But I dont believe in the plan of building a team around a lesser QB as a plan to consistently get to and win superbowls.

Seven of the last ten superbowls were won by Mahomes or Brady. And one more by Peyton Manning.

The two years a non top QB won the superbowl, only one beat one of the top QBs (Eagles beat Patriots)

I think you can get lucky or unlucky in the league. Brady and Mahomes went/go to the superbowl consistently but not every year. If you build a team around a lesser QB, you might get lucky one year and miss having to face Mahomes. But that's not a plan.

And honestly, thats less likely than that a QB you believe in and draft ends up a bust. It's much more likely that your super team with a lesser QB doesnt ever get you there and win it.

I think on your point that a QB has a 66% chance of being a top 2 QB is something I can't see. There are 32 starting QB's in the NFL - one is Patrick Mahomes. So odds that in a given year I have a 2/3rd's chance that I am going to get someone who is either better than Patrick Mahomes or better than Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and whomever you have on that next tier seems off the mark.

Now if you say - odds are 50/50 that he is a top 7 QB - than I can maybe get into that window. I think when it comes to deciding who is a top 2 QB it gets really hard.  I mean just look at the last handful of those guys - only Peyton Manning was a #1 overall picks (and this is coming from someone who supports taking a QB early).

Otherwise - If I think back to the last 15 years - at different point(s) in their careers - these 5 stand out the most:

Tom Brady - We know the story

Mahomes - Taken after a few others

Rodgers - Fell in the draft 

Drew Brees - 2nd round pick (or last pick in 1st round - don't recall)

Peyton Manning - #1 overall 

Next Wave:

Big Ben - High pick - but not top 5 

Josh Allen - High pick - but not #1 overall (and he needs to win a superbowl I think to get into the next list)

Lamar Jackson - Late 1st rounder 

Eli Manning - High pick - I don't know if I want to rate him but I guess i will 

Matt Ryan - might be stretching, but #1 overall

[killakrzydav]

Homie must be see my drafts!!

[killakrzydav]

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

19 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think on your point that a QB has a 66% chance of being a top 2 QB is something I can't see. There are 32 starting QB's in the NFL - one is Patrick Mahomes. So odds that in a given year I have a 2/3rd's chance that I am going to get someone who is either better than Patrick Mahomes or better than Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and whomever you have on that next tier seems off the mark.

Now if you say - odds are 50/50 that he is a top 7 QB - than I can maybe get into that window. I think when it comes to deciding who is a top 2 QB it gets really hard.  I mean just look at the last handful of those guys - only Peyton Manning was a #1 overall picks (and this is coming from someone who supports taking a QB early).

Otherwise - If I think back to the last 15 years - at different point(s) in their careers - these 5 stand out the most:

Tom Brady - We know the story

Mahomes - Taken after a few others

Rodgers - Fell in the draft 

Drew Brees - 2nd round pick (or last pick in 1st round - don't recall)

Peyton Manning - #1 overall 

Next Wave:

Big Ben - High pick - but not top 5 

Josh Allen - High pick - but not #1 overall (and he needs to win a superbowl I think to get into the next list)

Lamar Jackson - Late 1st rounder 

Eli Manning - High pick - I don't know if I want to rate him but I guess i will 

Matt Ryan - might be stretching, but #1 overall

Teams need to have most pieces in place to make a qb work. It starts from the top.  I think the Bears have the right GM in place.  HC is still shaky, but he did improve as the season progressed with all of the issues he faced.  OC, I think they have the best guy that was available but time will tell. Is the Oline able to protect the QB and help with calls?  They are getting closer too but there is a huge hole at C and G/OT depth.  Running game, seems pretty good but no standout and if you remove JF, are they great?  WR, after DJ Moore, they are basically all guys that wouldn't be missed. TE, they need a better backup.

They need about 4 good to great players on offense or 1/3.  Count the QB and we are closer to needing half the personal.  

If they draft Caleb, would he be enough to overcome those deficiencies?  They could still upgrade maybe two positions with good to great replacements and they might be closer, but that is also how you wreck a rookie. 

Whatever way the Bears go, I will support.  As DaBears listed, great QBs come not only from the number one slot because they go to a great situation and are developed.

 

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

More I think of it - the more I would be good with either the double trade down scenario or the stick at 1 or single trade down scenario (if I can get a 2nd and a future first plus the 2 pick that is probably worth it), than move Fields. 
 

Basically put - Poles just has to pick the right guys - he does that and any of these scenarios work really well. I do think the lowest risk scenario is the double trade down…you just have so many options to hit blue chippers, with the main risk that you miss the big blue chip but you make up for that with more chances to take a swing. 

What was refreshing to hear was Peter King stating he knows nothing. Most writers claim to have a source, he was being honest. Poles lets no info out, so anyone saying anything is speculation. A bunch of podcasts are now saying, because of Peter King, that trading is possible .  It's always been an option.

Getting these many prospects will set this franchise up for years to come. They can become NE, where when people have to get paid, you can move on to the new guys. It's a forever cycle once you get it started. With  three 1s next you can keep gathering future picks. 

The option of adding many first and second round picks eliminates missing on the first pick and losing your job. It will enhance winning for the next few years.

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

and it's all extremely valuable. the only thing more valuable would be a Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes.

Im not saying that's who WIlliams is. I have a lot of film to watch before i make my guess. But if he is, he is worth passing on the haul.

And i wasnt making a purely financial argument. At the end of the day youre happy to pay players who excel and are young. Like Montez Sweat, or DJ Moore. You just dont want to be tied down long term with large contracts to players who are good but not great. But if they are great, then they are what the money is for.

Of course drafting Brady (6 th round) or a Mahomes ( third QB in draft year) is worth it. They are rare and many more misses than wins picking high.

Trevor Lawrence was rated as a can't miss prospect. Last year he had 

4016 yards, 7.1 per attempt 21 TDs, 14 int. 88.5 rating. That's good not great. He finished 11 in the league.

Last year Fields had 16 TDs, 7 int with a 86.3 rating with missing 4 games. The point being , with  more talent and better coaching he can easily be Lawrence type numbers. Neither are generational types.

 

 

 

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think on your point that a QB has a 66% chance of being a top 2 QB is something I can't see. There are 32 starting QB's in the NFL - one is Patrick Mahomes. So odds that in a given year I have a 2/3rd's chance that I am going to get someone who is either better than Patrick Mahomes or better than Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and whomever you have on that next tier seems off the mark.

Now if you say - odds are 50/50 that he is a top 7 QB - than I can maybe get into that window. I think when it comes to deciding who is a top 2 QB it gets really hard.  I mean just look at the last handful of those guys - only Peyton Manning was a #1 overall picks (and this is coming from someone who supports taking a QB early).

Otherwise - If I think back to the last 15 years - at different point(s) in their careers - these 5 stand out the most:

Tom Brady - We know the story

Mahomes - Taken after a few others

Rodgers - Fell in the draft 

Drew Brees - 2nd round pick (or last pick in 1st round - don't recall)

Peyton Manning - #1 overall 

Next Wave:

Big Ben - High pick - but not top 5 

Josh Allen - High pick - but not #1 overall (and he needs to win a superbowl I think to get into the next list)

Lamar Jackson - Late 1st rounder 

Eli Manning - High pick - I don't know if I want to rate him but I guess i will 

Matt Ryan - might be stretching, but #1 overall

Oh for sure, most years there is no top 2 in the league QB in the draft!

I just mean if Caleb Williams (or whoever) is that guy, and your scouts are SURE, theres still a 33% chance they will bust.

But yes, most years there is not, I should have been clearer.

But I also think unless you have one of those QBs, you arent realistically competing for a super bowl victory, so when (if) one comes along, and youre sold thats who he is likely to be, you gotta reach for it.

And Im not even saying I think Caleb or anyone is that guy either. In a couple months I'll have my guess, but I dont even know what I think right now about any of them.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think on your point that a QB has a 66% chance of being a top 2 QB is something I can't see. There are 32 starting QB's in the NFL - one is Patrick Mahomes. So odds that in a given year I have a 2/3rd's chance that I am going to get someone who is either better than Patrick Mahomes or better than Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and whomever you have on that next tier seems off the mark.

Now if you say - odds are 50/50 that he is a top 7 QB - than I can maybe get into that window. I think when it comes to deciding who is a top 2 QB it gets really hard.  I mean just look at the last handful of those guys - only Peyton Manning was a #1 overall picks (and this is coming from someone who supports taking a QB early).

Otherwise - If I think back to the last 15 years - at different point(s) in their careers - these 5 stand out the most:

Tom Brady - We know the story

Mahomes - Taken after a few others

Rodgers - Fell in the draft 

Drew Brees - 2nd round pick (or last pick in 1st round - don't recall)

Peyton Manning - #1 overall 

Next Wave:

Big Ben - High pick - but not top 5 

Josh Allen - High pick - but not #1 overall (and he needs to win a superbowl I think to get into the next list)

Lamar Jackson - Late 1st rounder 

Eli Manning - High pick - I don't know if I want to rate him but I guess i will 

Matt Ryan - might be stretching, but #1 overall

Great points, only a few # 1 picks QBs  on that list. Some. # 1s were not great QBs, Eli and Matt Ryan to point.

[BearFan PHX]

29 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Teams need to have most pieces in place to make a qb work. It starts from the top.  I think the Bears have the right GM in place.  HC is still shaky, but he did improve as the season progressed with all of the issues he faced.  OC, I think they have the best guy that was available but time will tell. Is the Oline able to protect the QB and help with calls?  They are getting closer too but there is a huge hole at C and G/OT depth.  Running game, seems pretty good but no standout and if you remove JF, are they great?  WR, after DJ Moore, they are basically all guys that wouldn't be missed. TE, they need a better backup.

They need about 4 good to great players on offense or 1/3.  Count the QB and we are closer to needing half the personal.  

If they draft Caleb, would he be enough to overcome those deficiencies?  They could still upgrade maybe two positions with good to great replacements and they might be closer, but that is also how you wreck a rookie. 

Whatever way the Bears go, I will support.  As DaBears listed, great QBs come not only from the number one slot because they go to a great situation and are developed.

 

sure, but as DABEARS just said so well, most years a QB like that isnt even available. And on the rare years one is, any given team likely doesnt have the pick to take them.

But football IS the #1 team sport for sure. I just think there are lots of ways to build rosters, and only very rare chances to get a top 2 (in the league not the draft!) QB. Are any of those guys this year that guy? No one knows, but at best the scouts may be telling you that there is a decent chance Williams (or whoever) IS that guy, and a lottery ticket with even a 50% chance on a guy like that is worth buying at pretty much any cost. Especially when the cost doesnt come from your future, but just in missed opportunites for extra draft picks?

[Stinger226]

2 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Oh for sure, most years there is no top 2 in the league QB in the draft!

I just mean if Caleb Williams (or whoever) is that guy, and your scouts are SURE, theres still a 33% chance they will bust.

But yes, most years there is not, I should have been clearer.

But I also think unless you have one of those QBs, you arent realistically competing for a super bowl victory, so when (if) one comes along, and youre sold thats who he is likely to be, you gotta reach for it.

And Im not even saying I think Caleb or anyone is that guy either. In a couple months I'll have my guess, but I dont even know what I think right now about any of them.

What I find interesting is you have no idea if any of these QBs are top tier QBs and yet you keep pushing to draft one. At least follow the process before you claim a generational QB exists. That would be more realistic.

[BearFan PHX]

55 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

 

yeah, insane for sure.

[Stinger226]

35 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Teams need to have most pieces in place to make a qb work. It starts from the top.  I think the Bears have the right GM in place.  HC is still shaky, but he did improve as the season progressed with all of the issues he faced.  OC, I think they have the best guy that was available but time will tell. Is the Oline able to protect the QB and help with calls?  They are getting closer too but there is a huge hole at C and G/OT depth.  Running game, seems pretty good but no standout and if you remove JF, are they great?  WR, after DJ Moore, they are basically all guys that wouldn't be missed. TE, they need a better backup.

They need about 4 good to great players on offense or 1/3.  Count the QB and we are closer to needing half the personal.  

If they draft Caleb, would he be enough to overcome those deficiencies?  They could still upgrade maybe two positions with good to great replacements and they might be closer, but that is also how you wreck a rookie. 

Whatever way the Bears go, I will support.  As DaBears listed, great QBs come not only from the number one slot because they go to a great situation and are developed.

 

Good points, Poles has to win this year, which option puts him in a better position to win?  A rookie is more likely to have Bryce Young year than Stroud . I think that is counter productive. 

[Stinger226]

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

14 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

 

If the Bears do that, I think they can build a great team to eventually bring a rookie QB that anyone should prosper with. 2 firsts in 2024, 3 in 2025, and if they trade ATL, it will require their 2026, so 2 in 2026. They can use those picks to gain addition picks too.  You can grab a 2nd rd QB prospect for insurance if desired. Sign the 5th year to lock JF down and make the 85 team again.

The Commanders will more than likely be picking top 8 or higher next year.  Or if they end up like Carolina, maybe the top pick again. 

It will be considered by Poles. Does he feel better with the haul of a lifetime or a chance at a great QB. If the QB is wrong, you lose at the addition 6 first rd players if right, the QB could be worth all that.

Let's just say 5-6 wins

Home opponents:

Dallas Cowboys

• New York Giants
• Philadelphia Eagles
• Atlanta Falcons
• Carolina Panthers
• Cleveland Browns
• Pittsburgh Steelers
• Tennessee Titans
• Chicago Bears

Away opponents:

• Dallas Cowboys
• New York Giants
• Philadelphia Eagles
• New Orleans Saints
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Baltimore Ravens
• Arizona Cardinals
• Cincinnati Bengals

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

If the Bears do that, I think they can build a great team to eventually bring a rookie QB that anyone should prosper with. 2 firsts in 2024, 3 in 2025, and if they trade ATL, it will require their 2026, so 2 in 2026. They can use those picks to gain addition picks too.  You can grab a 2nd rd QB prospect for insurance if desired. Sign the 5th year to lock JF down and make the 85 team again.

The Commanders will more than likely be picking top 8 or higher next year.  Or if they end up like Carolina, maybe the top pick again. 

It will be considered by Poles. Does he feel better with the haul of a lifetime or a chance at a great QB. If the QB is wrong, you lose at the addition 6 first rd players if right, the QB could be worth all that.

Let's just say 5-6 wins

Home opponents:

Dallas Cowboys

• New York Giants
• Philadelphia Eagles
• Atlanta Falcons
• Carolina Panthers
• Cleveland Browns
• Pittsburgh Steelers
• Tennessee Titans
• Chicago Bears

Away opponents:

• Dallas Cowboys
• New York Giants
• Philadelphia Eagles
• New Orleans Saints
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Baltimore Ravens
• Arizona Cardinals
• Cincinnati Bengals

You never know how things turn out but , I would say top 10 pick is realistic. If a QB emerges, two first round picks could move you up. We have to keep in mind we are 2 years into a rebuild, this is the year we see the results staring to take over the team. A rookie QB would set back his plan on every year draft wealth , to continue infinity. Just being a little more patient and everything will start to show itself to be winning every year.

[Lucky Luciano]

18 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Bears at 8 & 9 can take 2 of (top 3 WR, Top 2 LT, Top Dline).  They would than have 2 2nd round picks - one could address center and in this draft, I would actually suggest the other addresses (wideout).  But you could also, if you wanted to - use one of those 2nd rounders on whatever QB prospect fell (whether Nix or Penix)...but one of them would be there.  

Cap wise - you actually should be able to make another big signing or two - in particular I would say on the dline where there is more talent in FA than some of the other positions.  I say this knowing yeah, if Fields works out you are paying him, but you also have 3 1st round picks and 3 2nd rounders in 25 which puts you in an incredible spot to built a really good team.  

here's the thing, ANY top end free agents will likely sign for a 4-5 + year contract. if you end up with all of these trade down first and second round picks THEIR rookie contracts will come due in that 4-5 year span.

how could we possibly afford that in the cap? say all of these top two round picks pan out to be very good to excellent players. we would never be able to resign the top end free agents AND these players when their rookie contracts come due. we just couldn't afford that many contracts for high end players coming due all at once. add to this, if any believe that fields is going to be a high end qb, HIS contract will come due at the same time as the rookies and high end free agents. we would be in cap hell and have to CUT half the players we traded down to get, release the high end free agents we signed and/or release our starting qb.

[Mongo3451]

38 minutes ago, Lucky Luciano said:

here's the thing, ANY top end free agents will likely sign for a 4-5 + year contract. if you end up with all of these trade down first and second round picks THEIR rookie contracts will come due in that 4-5 year span.

how could we possibly afford that in the cap? say all of these top two round picks pan out to be very good to excellent players. we would never be able to resign the top end free agents AND these players when their rookie contracts come due. we just couldn't afford that many contracts for high end players coming due all at once. add to this, if any believe that fields is going to be a high end qb, HIS contract will come due at the same time as the rookies and high end free agents. we would be in cap hell and have to CUT half the players we traded down to get, release the high end free agents we signed and/or release our starting qb.

That's the price teams pay to be good.  Trade the ones you can't sign.  Then you get comp picks for the ones you lose.  In the end, you pay QB, LT, RT, EDGE and WR. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Seeing more and more people start to talk and think this way.  Those of us in the ‘Fields camp’ have been saying it the whole time.  Makes way too much sense.  https://x.com/justinfieldsfc/status/1762189062520377635?s=46&t=KrpJmhSTc4DI1sACtjisOQ

[Lucky Luciano]

15 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

That's the price teams pay to be good.  Trade the ones you can't sign.  Then you get comp picks for the ones you lose.  In the end, you pay QB, LT, RT, EDGE and WR. 

if you keep cutting or trading your primo players they have to be replaced. the only option in that scenario is acquiring much less talented FA players to fill their spots while the rookies you HOPE turn out good and drafted high again figure it all out.

SO, you either hope to hit the lottery in the draft in lower rounds or you have to pick more top 50 rated players to fill their spots. with a three year, as would be normal, for a rookie to start showing the quality you hoped to get by drafting him. if you miss on these newly drafted players you get from a trade/cut etc. you are stuck with 2nd or 3rd rate quality starters.

for me, especially if you are building a team through the draft, you can stagger the big paydays for the high end players that turn out. otherwise if half your quality starters all come due at the same time there is no way you can have a roster that can win you superbowls.

[Mongo3451]

2 minutes ago, Lucky Luciano said:

if you keep cutting or trading your primo players they have to be replaced. the only option in that scenario is acquiring much less talented FA players to fill their spots while the rookies you HOPE turn out good and drafted high again figure it all out.

SO, you either hope to hit the lottery in the draft in lower rounds or you have to pick more top 50 rated players to fill their spots. with a three year, as would be normal, for a rookie to start showing the quality you hoped to get by drafting him. if you miss on these newly drafted players you get from a trade/cut etc. you are stuck with 2nd or 3rd rate quality starters.

for me, especially if you are building a team through the draft, you can stagger the big paydays for the high end players that turn out. otherwise if half your quality starters all come due at the same time there is no way you can have a roster that can win you superbowls.

I think you're forgetting the depth that is already pushing to start.

[Pixote]

1 hour ago, Lucky Luciano said:

here's the thing, ANY top end free agents will likely sign for a 4-5 + year contract. if you end up with all of these trade down first and second round picks THEIR rookie contracts will come due in that 4-5 year span.

I get your point. However, most top free agents signing that big contract for 4 to 5 years are already in their mid to late 20s. Therefore, when their contracts expire and need resigning, many are beyond their prime, descending in value, and can/should be released. If resigned, for less money, we can extend rookie deals that are maturing.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Lucky Luciano said:

if you keep cutting or trading your primo players they have to be replaced. the only option in that scenario is acquiring much less talented FA players to fill their spots while the rookies you HOPE turn out good and drafted high again figure it all out.

SO, you either hope to hit the lottery in the draft in lower rounds or you have to pick more top 50 rated players to fill their spots. with a three year, as would be normal, for a rookie to start showing the quality you hoped to get by drafting him. if you miss on these newly drafted players you get from a trade/cut etc. you are stuck with 2nd or 3rd rate quality starters.

for me, especially if you are building a team through the draft, you can stagger the big paydays for the high end players that turn out. otherwise if half your quality starters all come due at the same time there is no way you can have a roster that can win you superbowls.

If you keep getting future picks you can keep the cycle going. When contracts are due you sign the most important FAs and trade or let them walk and you get compensation picks. NE did that forever and they someone there to take his place. That is the importance of future picks.