The Chicago Bears are on the clock! OFFSEASON OPEN THREAD!

[DABEARSDABOMB]

34 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

unless they are all in on Williams and want to run the same type of offense that would work with Fields. But for me, yes, I want to see a QB who can make reads and execute the offense in rhythm. And then whatever other skills they have are an added bonus that gets you a first down or two on every drive.

I think the reality is - make reads and executing the offense in rhythm, that isn't what makes a QB great.  But you have to have a basic level of doing it. Drew Brees and Tom Brady were the guys who were so masterful that they made it that.  However, you have to be proficient at it - but what makes you great in today's NFL seems to be - being proficient at it while being able to make plays where plays aren't there.  

Josh Allen - He is solid on script and in pocket - but he is lethal at making something out of nothing and going big game hunting.  You give him extended time on the occasional play - he'll make you pay - including when you think you got him.  Multiplier.  

Mahomes - Again - he's become pretty good in the pocket - and he was always solid - but again, when he gets extended time - he makes teams pay. Multiplier.  

 

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I think the reality is - make reads and executing the offense in rhythm, that isn't what makes a QB great.  But you have to have a basic level of doing it. Drew Brees and Tom Brady were the guys who were so masterful that they made it that.  However, you have to be proficient at it - but what makes you great in today's NFL seems to be - being proficient at it while being able to make plays where plays aren't there.  

Josh Allen - He is solid on script and in pocket - but he is lethal at making something out of nothing and going big game hunting.  You give him extended time on the occasional play - he'll make you pay - including when you think you got him.  Multiplier.  

Mahomes - Again - he's become pretty good in the pocket - and he was always solid - but again, when he gets extended time - he makes teams pay. Multiplier.  

 

for sure all the extra skills are multipliers, and there are lots of ways to play the position.

But I would argue that with or without those extra skills, if a pocket statue could complete 70% of their passes in rhythm, that alone would be greatness. And conversely, if you complete 50% of your passes, no matter how good you are running, you will not be great.

Think of Dan Marino, Payton Manning and Tom Brady as pocket statues. If any of them could have run like Josh Allen even, then theyd have been even more dominant, but they didnt have to. Executing the offense is really all that is necessary.

I havent done my homework on Drake Maye at all, am I already sounding like a Maye proponent? LOL

[BearFan PHX]

I just googled, and the modern game has really changed. 10 of the top 11 all time career completion percentage leaders are currently playing in the NFL. I mean hell, Trubisky is 29th all time with 64.1%, while Brady is 24th at 64.3%. Marino is 79th with 59.4% - but by eye, Brady and Marino were known as surgeons on the field, getting the ball out quick to the right receiver.

Fields didnt make the list because he hasnt played enough games I guess, and stands at 60.3%

I guess pure career completion percentage isnt gonna be the stat to use, but there must be a related one that tells the story, because we all know the Montana, Manning, Brady, Marino type of all time greats who didnt move and got the ball out quick to the right guy.

Whatever that stat is, it will tell the story of what Im saying about being mobile being a great multiplier, but not enough to substitute for the core skill of executing the offense.

 

[AZ54]

58 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

As much as I love Justin, if there's a Burrows type in this draft, Poles will take him. The evaluation is the key, if there's work ethic or character issues, he ain't taking any of them. The experts ( who have no accountability) says Williams is special. Justin will never be a tier one but that doesn't mean you can't win with him. Would everyone be okay with a Joe Burrow  type  first year? 2700-13-5.

 

That is exactly the problem for me...there isn't a Joe Burrow, Andrew Luck, or Trevor Lawrence in this draft.  Caleb Williams is supposed to be that guy.  I haven't seen that in the games I watched but I didn't watch every USC game.   Historically there is always one good long term starting QB from each NFL draft.  Every 5 years you get two.  As far as I can tell it's a reasonable gamble on any of the top 3 being that guy....which is just a 33% probability.  Unless you believe there are two this year.    

Of course the most-excellent GMs in the NFL are all supposed to be able to figure out which one it will be.  Yet even offensive geniuses like Shanahan in SF go after Trey Lance aggressively.  Meanwhile Poles has had good success drafting talent at Dline/Oline and defensive backfield.  WR is a clear miss IMO (at best an incomplete if Scott learns how to catch), RB is ok with Roschon but just ok.  So what do we really know with Poles drafting offensive skill players?  

That's why after Fields' improvement in the 2nd half of the season I flipped away from the draft Jedis.  I believe Fields has shown he can be a top 15 QB especially with the right OC.  That also includes better talent in front of and around him.  All draft picks have odds of success.  Get more picks improve your chances of finding good players.  We still need a lot of them.  

The one bet I'm willing to make:  I'm 100% certain one of the top 3 QBs will be the guy and everyone will say we should have drafted him.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

8 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

That is exactly the problem for me...there isn't a Joe Burrow, Andrew Luck, or Trevor Lawrence in this draft.  Caleb Williams is supposed to be that guy.  I haven't seen that in the games I watched but I didn't watch every USC game.   Historically there is always one good long term starting QB from each NFL draft.  Every 5 years you get two.  As far as I can tell it's a reasonable gamble on any of the top 3 being that guy....which is just a 33% probability.  Unless you believe there are two this year.    

Of course the most-excellent GMs in the NFL are all supposed to be able to figure out which one it will be.  Yet even offensive geniuses like Shanahan in SF go after Trey Lance aggressively.  Meanwhile Poles has had good success drafting talent at Dline/Oline and defensive backfield.  WR is a clear miss IMO (at best an incomplete if Scott learns how to catch), RB is ok with Roschon but just ok.  So what do we really know with Poles drafting offensive skill players?  

That's why after Fields' improvement in the 2nd half of the season I flipped away from the draft Jedis.  I believe Fields has shown he can be a top 15 QB especially with the right OC.  That also includes better talent in front of and around him.  All draft picks have odds of success.  Get more picks improve your chances of finding good players.  We still need a lot of them.  

The one bet I'm willing to make:  I'm 100% certain one of the top 3 QBs will be the guy and everyone will say we should have drafted him.  

You mention Joe Burrow - I think we sometimes have revisionist history of drafts. Joe Burrow had legitimate concerns coming out.  He basically had 1 explosive year in the pro's.  He took a massive jump forward from his Jr. season to Sr. season.  Doubled passing stats, etc. In some ways -the more comparable player to Burrow is Daniels (coincidentally from the same school).  Only difference is Daniels couldn't overcome just how bad his team defense was.  

[Mongo3451]

56 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

The one bet I'm willing to make:  I'm 100% certain one of the top 3 QBs will be the guy and everyone will say we should have drafted him.  

That's exactly why we should draft one.  When else will we have this chance? If you say it's a 33% chance for a generational franchise QB, while Polian said a Peyton Manning is worth 10x first rounders.  The odds are better to draft than to buy.  Three years of Justin tell me, he not it.

[Stinger226]

47 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

You mention Joe Burrow - I think we sometimes have revisionist history of drafts. Joe Burrow had legitimate concerns coming out.  He basically had 1 explosive year in the pro's.  He took a massive jump forward from his Jr. season to Sr. season.  Doubled passing stats, etc. In some ways -the more comparable player to Burrow is Daniels (coincidentally from the same school).  Only difference is Daniels couldn't overcome just how bad his team defense was.  

Justin Herbert is a tier one QB, yet hasn't won anything, hasn't raised the level of his team that has several blue chip players. Lawrence was a #1 pick, he hasn't been terrible but has a long way to go to be special. He did win a playoff game last year though. It takes a good roster, good coaching and a lot of luck to win SBs in the NFL. Mahomes is the only true #1 that has been there multiple times. 

It's hard to find them QBs.

[Stinger226]

4 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

That's exactly why we should draft one.  When else will we have this chance? If you say it's a 33% chance for a generational franchise QB, while Polian said a Peyton Manning is worth 10x first rounders.  The odds are better to draft than to buy.  Three years of Justin tell me, he not it.

You're right, but which one? Poles has to win this year to keep his job, A rookie may effect that plan. He knows he can win next year with an upgraded roster and better play calling. I still think you keep Fields get a prospect with  a trade down and develop him a year or two. 

[BearFan PHX]

58 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

That's exactly why we should draft one.  When else will we have this chance? If you say it's a 33% chance for a generational franchise QB, while Polian said a Peyton Manning is worth 10x first rounders.  The odds are better to draft than to buy.  Three years of Justin tell me, he not it.

That's exactly it. No doubt the odds of getting Payton Manning are low. And AZ54 is right that everyone looks backwards and blames GMs for not predicting the future. And of course if you could predict the future, youd be the richest man in the world, and no one ever can.

But people can assess risk and reward, and surely buying a lottery ticket that has a 33% chance to payoff a franchise QB is definitely worth buying, and all things being equal you can expect to win about 1 in three times. If you take two swings at it, you might well get it, if you take four, youre very likely to get it.

And if you do it ten times, you might reliably get a Payton Manning out of that, which is why his price is 10 firsts (or whatever it is).

You gotta take the chance.

It's 1 second left in the 4th quarter of the Superbowl and youre down by 5 with the ball on the 50 yard line. A screen has a much higher percentage chance to get at least 20 yards, but will almost certainly not score on the prevent defense. The Hail Mary has a low percentage chance to score a touchdown, but a touchdown is the only thing that will win it for you.

Who calls the screen? We all call the Hail Mary.

And taking a top QB in the top few picks is a better bet than the Hail Mary, and the same prize is on the line - Super Bowl Victory.

You gotta take a QB somewhere in the top 5 ish.

[AZ54]

6 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

You mention Joe Burrow - I think we sometimes have revisionist history of drafts. Joe Burrow had legitimate concerns coming out.  He basically had 1 explosive year in the pro's.  He took a massive jump forward from his Jr. season to Sr. season.  Doubled passing stats, etc. In some ways -the more comparable player to Burrow is Daniels (coincidentally from the same school).  Only difference is Daniels couldn't overcome just how bad his team defense was.  

I totally agree, Burrow had and still has some accuracy issues deep.  Those concerns carried over to the draft.  However, you can overcome that with the WRs he had at LSU and now in the NFL who are fantastic at adjusting to the ball.  He's a much better processor of defenses than Fields and short to intermediate he'll slice you up.  I don't see a similar talent in this draft. 

I think Caleb Williams is more of a creative QB at this point than pocket passer.  Regardless, his mental toughness and leadership are my main concerns.  Losing reveals character.  

Among the top 3, Maye might be closest to Burrow's style in the pocket but I think that's a stretch.  Of course he also hasn't thrown to equivalent college receiving talent.  

I haven't watched but a single full game of Daniels since he left ASU so I'm mostly relying on input from this board to this point.   When I watch all snaps of the Florida game (350yd passing, 200yd rushing) he reminds me a lot of Justin Fields.  I don't see him throwing with a lot of anticipation.  He bails out of the pocket sometimes unnecessarily and runs (great runner).  Great deep ball.  Oddly I find him to be the most intriguing of the top 3.  Maybe because he could literally step right into the same offense as Fields and we wouldn't miss a beat.  His slight frame is a concern in the NFL and we've seen how tough hits  have been on Fields.   

All three have enough physical talent they will blow up the pre-draft process.  

[AZ54]

6 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

That's exactly why we should draft one.  When else will we have this chance? If you say it's a 33% chance for a generational franchise QB, while Polian said a Peyton Manning is worth 10x first rounders.  The odds are better to draft than to buy.  Three years of Justin tell me, he not it.

I re-read my post just to be sure but I never said "generational franchise QB".  I don't see that in these draftees.  Doesn't mean one won't end up that way.  

"Historically there is always one good long term starting QB."   IMO that is the most likely landing point with one of the top 3 QB draftees.  That is the basis for my comparison to Fields.  

I also think Justin Fields can be a good long term starting QB.  I think he's trending there based on his play in the 2nd half of the season but not there yet.   I wouldn't put him in the generational talent either  but that also doesn't mean he won't end up that way.  If he gets there, it is going to be more along the path Roethlisberger followed.  Interestingly Roethlisberger went to the Pro Bowl in 2007 when he only threw for 3100yds in 15 games.  HIs first 4000 yd season was his 6th year.  

 

[Mongo3451]

8 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I re-read my post just to be sure but I never said "generational franchise QB".  I don't see that in these draftees.  Doesn't mean one won't end up that way.

I didn't, but experts have.  Before the season began, they labeled Williams and Maye generational.  They called Williams a shorter, more athletic Patrick Mahomes.  They then labeled Maye, a more athletic and competitive Justin Herbert.  The guy Jim Harbaugh continually gushes over is Herbert.  It wouldn't surprise me to see him there.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

I didn't, but experts have.  Before the season began, they labeled Williams and Maye generational.  They called Williams a shorter, more athletic Patrick Mahomes.  They then labeled Maye, a more athletic and competitive Justin Herbert.  The guy Jim Harbaugh continually gushes over is Herbert.  It wouldn't surprise me to see him there.

If you picking a team, SD weather, Herbert, several blue chip players? I think it's a no brainer to me, for a landing spot for Harbaugh. Been listening to Greg Gabriel and he  was saying , the team is just getting their scouting information together. Lots more to evaluate, they have no idea who their QB will be until April. Poles clearly likes JF1, but has a long way to go to figure out the draftable QBs. No way he won't go thru the process to figure out what's best for the team.

[AZ54]

13 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I didn't, but experts have.  Before the season began, they labeled Williams and Maye generational.  They called Williams a shorter, more athletic Patrick Mahomes.  They then labeled Maye, a more athletic and competitive Justin Herbert.  The guy Jim Harbaugh continually gushes over is Herbert.  It wouldn't surprise me to see him there.

Didn't Harbaugh start out at San Diego State or something like that?  The Chargers aren't in San Diego anymore but I could see his ego loving the glamour world of LA.    

What constitutes a draft "expert"?  What is that experts record?  

[Stinger226]

8 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Didn't Harbaugh start out at San Diego State or something like that?  The Chargers aren't in San Diego anymore but I could see his ego loving the glamour world of LA.    

What constitutes a draft "expert"?  What is that experts record?  

It's a person that crowns themselves an( expert). Example: Mel Kiper, been doing it forever so automatically he's an expert.  He may be smarter than a common fan but he doesn't have to be accountable to anyone if he's wrong. 

Last year, Kiper had Stroud ranked 3 rd best QB, McShay, 2, Reid 2, Miller 2. So much for experts. So now this year, new QBs, new rankings but they are still the experts.

 

[adam]

People are now comparing Stroud's situation to what a rookie would have with the Bears this year.

Just to compare, his WR4 (Robert Woods) would've been the Bears WR2.  Their WR5 had the same stats as our WR3. Their TE2 had double the yards than Tonyan.

Based on production, the combined teams would look like this: Moore, Collins, Dell, Brown, Woods, Mooney, Scott, Metchie, Hutchinson. 

The Bears need to add WR2, WR3, and WR4 and TE2 to be comparable to HOU's offense.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

15 minutes ago, adam said:

People are now comparing Stroud's situation to what a rookie would have with the Bears this year.

Just to compare, his WR4 (Robert Woods) would've been the Bears WR2.  Their WR5 had the same stats as our WR3. Their TE2 had double the yards than Tonyan.

Based on production, the combined teams would look like this: Moore, Collins, Dell, Brown, Woods, Mooney, Scott, Metchie, Hutchinson. 

The Bears need to add WR2, WR3, and WR4 and TE2 to be comparable to HOU's offense.

Or Stroud made those guys better than they were. Mooney and Moore and Kmet are the 3 most productive players career wise (along with Robert Woods). Stroud is legit and made his guys better. Not knocking his guys either. 
 

And I would be first to say Bears need to upgrade receiver room. 

[Mongo3451]

8 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Or Stroud made those guys better than they were. Mooney and Moore and Kmet are the 3 most productive players career wise (along with Robert Woods). Stroud is legit and made his guys better. Not knocking his guys either. 
 

And I would be first to say Bears need to upgrade receiver room. 

Stroud is legit.  He also came into a perfect situation.  Great OL, deep WR room, super fast TE and good D.  That took him from legit to superstar in the making.  The stat he shares alone with Montana and Brady is ridiculous and they were vets when they accomplished it.

[adam]

Stroud is legit, I am just saying the Bears offensive roster is not there yet. If they draft a QB at #1, he would not be going into the same situation as Stroud, arguably worse. With only the #9 pick and no 2nd rounder, the Bears would be able to potentially address WR2 and C in the draft, but the rest of the holes would have to be filled via FA.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, adam said:

People are now comparing Stroud's situation to what a rookie would have with the Bears this year.

Just to compare, his WR4 (Robert Woods) would've been the Bears WR2.  Their WR5 had the same stats as our WR3. Their TE2 had double the yards than Tonyan.

Based on production, the combined teams would look like this: Moore, Collins, Dell, Brown, Woods, Mooney, Scott, Metchie, Hutchinson. 

The Bears need to add WR2, WR3, and WR4 and TE2 to be comparable to HOU's offense.

Oline is better in Houston, heck everyone's Oline was better than the Bears.  We had one bright spot this year:  

 

[Stinger226]

10 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Oline is better in Houston, heck everyone's Oline was better than the Bears.  We had one bright spot this year:  

 

I think all the upper ranked OLs have two blue chip players and the rest above average players. They grow together and build commonality. Jenkins ( often injured) and Wright will be our studs. Add a high end center and we start to be more consistent. I think the issues with Davis was a slow start when his mom died and never got his act together. This year will be much better.

[adam]

On 1/14/2024 at 1:03 PM, AZ54 said:

Oline is better in Houston, heck everyone's Oline was better than the Bears.  We had one bright spot this year:  

 

The Bears really need a new Center, RG, and an upgrade at LT.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Caleb officially enters the draft. For the record Stroud waited until final day last year and I think I read Justin Fields also announced on final day a couple years back. 

[adam]

Officially official:

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Large survey out there of nfl scouts and front office people - pretty much unanimous he is the #1 pick. Bears either trade or will take him. Very clear where he fits.