The Chicago Bears are on the clock! OFFSEASON OPEN THREAD!

[adam]

2 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Found the same guy do an All-22 breakdown on Daniels (below).  I have to admit he does a nice laymen termed breakdown of what he's seeing. Really helps with the analysis.  As I see more of these and now with Justin out of the picture, I'd have to say Daniels has moved up for me.  Before it was Nix but only as a developmental piece after we gave Justin one more year.  From watching the review on this, I see a player complete passes pretty much wherever.  I don't see him locking onto players as much and where Williams falters (on the long ball) he does much better at.  I also like the fact he's more 'prototypical' in being 6'4" vs Williams 6'1' (allegedly).  The one thing I don't like is that he's a Heisman winner and goes against my concern of how Heisman winners traditionally don't pan out; at the very least don't win Super Bowls as often.  Daniels' record while at LSU (an SEC team) was 19-7.  Oddly enough he split against Alabama losing to them this year (the video example below) but beat them last year.  

Comparatively for the 2023 season here's how Daniels did head-to-head against Williams:

Williams:  266/388   3,633 yards 9.4 avg 30 TDs 5 INTs (170.15 rating)

Daniels:   236/327   3,812 yards 11.7 avg 40 TDs 4 INTs (208.0 rating)      

 

Daniels scares me a little because he did that throwing to Nabers and Thomas, two likely first rounders. Daniels also did that as a 5th Year Senior, not a Junior. Look at what he did his Junior Year and Senior Year, and you would have a completely different perspective about him. He basically stayed in school to pad his numbers on a stacked team, and it worked. He would not have been a highly selected draft pick last year even though he was eligible. 

Also, there was a QB a few years ago who was also throwing to multiple 1st Round WRs in college, and that QB didn't work out.

[BearFan PHX]

9 minutes ago, adam said:

Daniels scares me a little because he did that throwing to Nabers and Thomas, two likely first rounders. Daniels also did that as a 5th Year Senior, not a Junior. Look at what he did his Junior Year and Senior Year, and you would have a completely different perspective about him. He basically stayed in school to pad his numbers on a stacked team, and it worked. He would not have been a highly selected draft pick last year even though he was eligible. 

Also, there was a QB a few years ago who was also throwing to multiple 1st Round WRs in college, and that QB didn't work out.

if you get a chance to watch game film on Daniels watch how his head never turns. He locks onto his receiver at the snap and stares him down the whole way. He doesnt influence safeties at all. Then he either throws the ball to the guy hes locked on to, in rhythm and with good location for a good play, or he takes the ball down and runs.

He just doesnt move his head at all - it's kind of wild.

He makes great pre snap reads, and has a great athletic toolbox including a hell of an arm, but unless his first read is open, hes gonna run. And it worked pretty well for him because he had great receivers in college and they were usually open. But you wont see him stand in  the pocket and turn his head to influence a safety or look at a second option.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

20 minutes ago, adam said:

Daniels scares me a little because he did that throwing to Nabers and Thomas, two likely first rounders. Daniels also did that as a 5th Year Senior, not a Junior. Look at what he did his Junior Year and Senior Year, and you would have a completely different perspective about him. He basically stayed in school to pad his numbers on a stacked team, and it worked. He would not have been a highly selected draft pick last year even though he was eligible. 

Understood. And earlier in the year I was less inclined to like 5th (or older) year Seniors coming out.  BUT, if you consider he’s playing against NFL ready defenses in the SEC AND he got better, not worse, then I think that is something definitely to consider.  As far as the ‘NFL caliber’ players he’s playing with, I only ask: how do you think these players got so good?  Isn’t Poles building a “stacked team” for some rookie (or QB not named Fields) to work with?  ??‍♂️

With Williams he actually regressed from 2022-23.  So who's to say he wouldn’t continue that regression from last year to this?  And if he does and is drafted by Chicago…welp.

27 minutes ago, adam said:

Also, there was a QB a few years ago who was also throwing to multiple 1st Round WRs in college, and that QB didn't work out.

You mean Joe Burrow? 

 

[Pixote]

Gosh, I'm at a loss for words. Warner, who's judgement I value highly, says Daniels is a great prospect. Mentioned how he could be just as successful as the last Heisman Trophy winner from LSU drafted, Joe Burrow.

But, OMG, he doesn't turn his head!

I just don't know what to think!

 

[adam]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Understood. And earlier in the year I was less inclined to like 5th (or older) year Seniors coming out.  BUT, if you consider he’s playing against NFL ready defenses in the SEC AND he got better, not worse, then I think that is something definitely to consider.  As far as the ‘NFL caliber’ players he’s playing with, I only ask: how do you think these players got so good?  Isn’t Poles building a “stacked team” for some rookie (or QB not named Fields) to work with?  ??‍♂️

With Williams he actually regressed from 2022-23.  So who's to say he wouldn’t continue that regression from last year to this?  And if he does and is drafted by Chicago…welp.

You mean Joe Burrow? 

 

My thought was Williams has never thrown to anyone as high caliber as Moore or Allen. The one thing for me that stands out for Williams over every other QB is how he keeps his head up and eyes downfield, to the point where it looks like his helmet is on a gimbal and his body is moving below a static helmet.

My order right now would be, just based on multi-year production would be Williams, Nix, then Penix/Daniels as 3a/3b, sort of interchangeable based on your offense, then Maye/McCarthy as 4a/4b. 

Just based on potential and projections, I would say Williams ceiling is the highest (top 5) and floor is probably a top 20 QB (not as a rookie). Penix ceiling is probably top 10 with a similar floor as Williams. Daniels has a top 10 ceiling and a top 25 floor (feels like Kyler Murray production), then Maye/McCarthy are very team dependent. I think they max out as top 15 QBs and floor are career backups after a short time starting (Howell, Pickett, Trubisky, Fields). 

I would not be surprised if 3 to 4 end up being long time starters. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 minutes ago, adam said:

My thought was Williams has never thrown to anyone as high caliber as Moore or Allen. The one thing for me that stands out for Williams over every other QB is how he keeps his head up and eyes downfield, to the point where it looks like his helmet is on a gimbal and his body is moving below a static helmet.

Maybe.  The one All-22 that PHX asked me to loook at showed him doing a lot of single read quick dumps to short route receivers.  There wasn’t much in the way of reading off of safeties that I saw. Maybe he does it well, I dunno but that’s just one plus (if accurate) in his arsenal. FWIW I saw Daniels do that very thing in the All22 I shared earlier and the commentator said as much. 
 

The one big difference for me (besides the other stuff I mentioned before) is how more accurate Daniels appears downfield than Williams. Granted the video I shared had some drops he at least hit the receiver ‘in the vicinity’.  Whereas Williams has a tendency to sail his long throws. 
 

This post brought to you courtesy of Costco Irish Whisky and a Guinness chaser.  Happy St Pats day.  ☘️???

[BearFan PHX]

5 hours ago, Pixote said:

Gosh, I'm at a loss for words. Warner, who's judgement I value highly, says Daniels is a great prospect. Mentioned how he could be just as successful as the last Heisman Trophy winner from LSU drafted, Joe Burrow.

But, OMG, he doesn't turn his head!

I just don't know what to think!

 

well watch some film and see if what Im saying is mostly true or mostly not true.

If all you can do is compare the pedigree of the people making the statements, then you miss the opportunity to take what Im saying, and not believe it or disbelieve it, but instead evaluate the truth of it with your own eyes.

Watch 30 snaps and see if you see his head moving, or if he locks onto receivers.

Nothing is 100% either way of course, but youll see what Im saying is true a lot of the time with Daniels.

But basically Im not asking you to trust me or take what i say on faith, more to use what Im saying as questions that you answer yourself with your own eyes. Thats what I do, I hear different opinions, and then I watch the tape. It becomes pretty clear after that.

I dont always think Kurt Warner is that good at the analysis. He knows a lot more than I do about NFL quarterbacking, but when i watch his tape he says things that i sometimes see differently. I am much more aligned in general with what JT OSullivan thinks. I usually agree with what he sees. Not always, but usually.

But it doesnt matter, we can all use our own eyes to evaluate assertions like the one I made.

I'll watch the Warner film and take time stamped notes about how often he:

turns his head
throws to a second read
runs

and then you can watch each play and tell us honestly whether you saw his head turn when I say it didnt or vice versa. Theres a stripe right on top of it - it's not subtle, we will all see it when we look. it doesnt take a PHD to see if a guy locks on to the WR from the snap, or looks around.

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Maybe.  The one All-22 that PHX asked me to loook at showed him doing a lot of single read quick dumps to short route receivers.  There wasn’t much in the way of reading off of safeties that I saw. Maybe he does it well, I dunno but that’s just one plus (if accurate) in his arsenal. FWIW I saw Daniels do that very thing in the All22 I shared earlier and the commentator said as much. 
 

The one big difference for me (besides the other stuff I mentioned before) is how more accurate Daniels appears downfield than Williams. Granted the video I shared had some drops he at least hit the receiver ‘in the vicinity’.  Whereas Williams has a tendency to sail his long throws. 
 

This post brought to you courtesy of Costco Irish Whisky and a Guinness chaser.  Happy St Pats day.  ☘️???

yes Daniels has freakish accuracy on deep balls and is better at that than Williams. Daniels probably has the best arm in the draft, although Penix has a rocket too, and Williams is no slouch, but Daniels and Penix just flick it.

The point in the Williams film was just that he doesnt hold the ball like they said he does. He makes fast decisions and gets the ball out. And Daniles does too, but only if the primary receiver is open, which he often was with those two studs at WR he had.

[Stinger226]

There is just as much talk today on Twitter than before the trade. Poles made his choice of saying goodbye to Justin and I think he is in the best place to decide. I still think Justin turns out to be a very good QB. He will start eventually in Pittsburgh and they will use him properly. I can still be a fan and get hyped by who ever Poles goes with. .

Why are people still pounding on Justin? It will turn out how it turns out and no one can predict the final outcome. 

I want Poles to finish venting the QBs and take the right one. 90% its CW, I hope he is the next Aaron Rodgers. His play compares to Aaron more than PM. If he surprises us with someone else, I'm okay with that. No one can predict the future. 

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

There is just as much talk today on Twitter than before the trade. Poles made his choice of saying goodbye to Justin and I think he is in the best place to decide. I still think Justin turns out to be a very good QB. He will start eventually in Pittsburgh and they will use him properly. I can still be a fan and get hyped by who ever Poles goes with. .

Why are people still pounding on Justin? It will turn out how it turns out and no one can predict the final outcome. 

I want Poles to finish venting the QBs and take the right one. 90% its CW, I hope he is the next Aaron Rodgers. His play compares to Aaron more than PM. If he surprises us with someone else, I'm okay with that. No one can predict the future. 

Fields is no different than Trubisky at this point, I wish him well and hope he turns into something. I will root for him wherever he goes. However, he is no longer a Bear, just like Mooney. So I am moving on, no need to waste my time or energy on a former player. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Fields is no different than Trubisky at this point, I wish him well and hope he turns into something. I will root for him wherever he goes. However, he is no longer a Bear, just like Mooney. So I am moving on, no need to waste my time or energy on a former player. 

No doubt however he does elsewhere will be measured to whomever replaces him.  I would suspect that to last a while. 

And FWIW, although technically correct, I would (respectfully) disagree he’s ’just like Trubisky’ as his fan base has been much more invested this time round.  And because of that the Ghost of Justin will be around for a bit.   Only way to exorcise that is for whomever replaces him to play their ‘cajones out’.  

[ChileBear]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

No doubt however he does elsewhere will be measured to whomever replaces him.  I would suspect that to last a while. 

And FWIW, although technically correct, I would (respectfully) disagree he’s ’just like Trubisky’ as his fan base has been much more invested this time round.  And because of that the Ghost of Justin will be around for a bit.   Only way to exorcise that is for whomever replaces him to play their ‘cajones out’.  

Yes, the new guy must "play their ‘cajones out’" and do better than Justin's 10-28 record. LOL

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Only way to exorcise that is for whomever replaces him to play their ‘cajones out’.  

Nah, if Bagent would've went 3-1 instead of 2-2, Justin woulda been traded at the deadline during the season.

[Stinger226]

24 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Nah, if Bagent would've went 3-1 instead of 2-2, Justin woulda been traded at the deadline during the season.

Nah, they were never going to run the rest of the way with a rookie just when the defense turned the corner. Justin didn't play well the first part of the season, much better when he got back. They needed to finish they're evaluating him.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

This feels like a pretty realistic Caleb + trade down draft.  I like what it does - addresses edge, gets a solid interior line prospect, and you have a couple solid receiver prospects in a deep receiver draft.  

[BearFan PHX]

Here's a prediction:

Bears take Williams
Commanders take Maye (unless they take Daniels)
Patriots take McCarthy (unless Maye is there)
Vikings trade up to 4, 5 or 6 to take Daniels (unless Maye is there)

bad scenario: Vikings end up taking Penix

[Stinger226]

35 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Here's a prediction:

Bears take Williams
Commanders take Maye (unless they take Daniels)
Patriots take McCarthy (unless Maye is there)
Vikings trade up to 4, 5 or 6 to take Daniels (unless Maye is there)

bad scenario: Vikings end up taking Penix

I don't know why Penix doesn't get more love. He looks good passing the ball.

[adam]

Not that it is a projection but it seems fairly sad that Williams can match Fields career win total in one season if he goes 10-7 or better. 

[BearFan PHX]

16 minutes ago, adam said:

Not that it is a projection but it seems fairly sad that Williams can match Fields career win total in one season if he goes 10-7 or better. 

that would say a lot. I dont think 10 wins is out of reach for this team either. But rookies have their growing pains, so its hard to know how it will start off.

[Stinger226]

29 minutes ago, adam said:

Not that it is a projection but it seems fairly sad that Williams can match Fields career win total in one season if he goes 10-7 or better. 

Better coaching, better roster, better results. Say what you want but Justin  was not put in the best situation to succeed. Also most rookies have a growth period when adjusting to the NFL. Because he's talented, people look at Stroud and say Caleb can do it. Odds are against that. 

He's never taken a snap under center. He goes wildcard way to much instead of playing in a structured offense. He has a lot of adjusting to do before his star rises. Another thing, he will be under a lot of pressure to win over the fan base and players. Excellent play will allow that to happen quickly but if he  starts out with some bad games, he will get hammered. How people handle stress tells a lot about his character. Hopefully he does well with that.

[BearFan PHX]

21 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Better coaching, better roster, better results.

True. But then again, Caleb had a crappy surrounding cast and did a lot of things on the field that Justin never did in Chicago.
 

22 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Most rookies have a growth period when adjusting to the NFL. Because he's talented, people look at Stroud and say Caleb can do it. Odds are against that.

There will be a growth curve for Caleb, no doubt. If he stumbles in year one, I'm still gonna have patience, but I suspect we will see inconsistency with a large sprinkling of great plays to show flashes of what he can do in the league.

What did Stroud do? 11 wins, and a single playoff victory. That's impressive for a rookie, but i think 10 wins is in reach for this team, and a playoff berth. Could they win one playoff game after that year of growth? Why not?

But even if we get 10 wins and dont win a playoff game, that'll be tremendous, and Stroud-like. I think it'd be hard to only have 7 wins this year. Draft Kings had Bears as top 7 NFC teams to go to the playoffs, and this was even before the Fields trade.
 

28 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

He's never taken a snap under center. He goes wildcard way to much instead of playing in a structured offense. He has a lot of adjusting to do before his star rises.

I think you're reading too much sportwriter narrative here. Caleb has dozens and dozens of plays on tape playing in structure. People may think he looks for home runs too much, but that doesnt mean he doesnt play successfully  in structure regularly. He is absolutely a processing Quarterback - in fact it's the processing that is why everyone is calling him generational etc. Its not his athleticism or arm, which are good but not like there arent people in every draft including this one with those skills too, and hes only 6' 1" - the reason there is so much hype around him is precisely because of how well he does play in structure, and like a Justin type when the play breaks.

I dont think he has a lot of adjusting to do mechanically or mentally, he will just need to adjust to the new speed around him, like all rookies have to.
 

31 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Another thing, he will be under a lot of pressure to win over the fan base and players. Excellent play will allow that to happen quickly but if he  starts out with some bad games, he will get hammered. How people handle stress tells a lot about his character. Hopefully he does well with that.

Of course that is true, and you can say that about anyone, but Caleb clearly has a lot of faith in himself, and is extremely competitive, so a slow start should make him fold, it ought to bring out the competitor in him. I dont think this is a real concern.

There is a reason everything thinks he is the #1 guy. hes not just another rookie.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Better coaching, better roster, better results. Say what you want but Justin  was not put in the best situation to succeed. Also most rookies have a growth period when adjusting to the NFL. Because he's talented, people look at Stroud and say Caleb can do it. Odds are against that. 

He's never taken a snap under center. He goes wildcard way to much instead of playing in a structured offense. He has a lot of adjusting to do before his star rises. Another thing, he will be under a lot of pressure to win over the fan base and players. Excellent play will allow that to happen quickly but if he  starts out with some bad games, he will get hammered. How people handle stress tells a lot about his character. Hopefully he does well with that.

Oh I know, but it will look bad on Fields regardless. Which is unfortunate. The hope is he can turn it around somewhere else, however, the deck is stacked against him.

I posted this awhile back during the season, but Fields has basically mirrored Blaine Gabbert's career arc and if Fields doesn't play in 2024 or only a few games, Fields will more than likely pass Gabbert in futility.

At 48 starts, Gabbert had 9,063 passing yards. Fields in 38 has 6,674, so Fields would have to average 239 yards per game for his next 10 starts to pass Gabbert. That is a number Fields has only eclipsed 6 times in 38 starts. He would have to do it 10 straight times.

 

[adam]

The scarier comp for Fields (if he doesn't play) is actually Christian Ponder, who played 4 years in Minnesota, went to Denver for 2 games the following year, then one year in SF (never played), and was out of the league by his 6th season. 

Stats thru 4 years:

Fields 38 GS, 578-958, 6,674 yds, 60.3%, 40 TD, 30 INT
Ponder 36 GS, 632-1,057, 6,658 yds, 59.8%, 38 TD, 36 INT

It sucks that Fields gets lumped in with guys like Gabbert and Ponder, but as a passer, that is who he is.

[Mongo3451]

He measured 6'1 and 7/8".

[adam]

3 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

He measured 6'1 and 7/8".

tall enough