The Chicago Bears are on the clock! OFFSEASON OPEN THREAD!

[adam]

Real football starts in 6 days and GB gets abused in Brazil in a week.

Then we cap it off with a huge Bears win on Sunday at Soldier Field! 

We made it!

[Stinger226]

I listen to the SCORE all the time and almost every host wanted Flus gone and a offensive minded coach. Now they are saying he has changed with a new look.

He's the same as he's always been, he creates culture, pushes hard work and has players respect. He literally had every member of the team over to his house for culture building. We praise Poles for good decisions, this will also praise Flus for sticking with him. He had 2 bad years learning to be a good head coach with a bad roster. The defense will be top 5 D, he will allow Waldron to give us a high level offense. He doesnt have the ego that forces himself on all decisions. Poles gets critized for keepong him yet the Houston coach won Coach of the Year as a D coach.  

This year will prove to be  a keeper for our head coach.

[Pixote]

42 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I listen to the SCORE all the time and almost every host wanted Flus gone and a offensive minded coach. Now they are saying he has changed with a new look.

He's the same as he's always been, he creates culture, pushes hard work and has players respect. He literally had every member of the team over to his house for culture building. We praise Poles for good decisions, this will also praise Flus for sticking with him. He had 2 bad years learning to be a good head coach with a bad roster. The defense will be top 5 D, he will allow Waldron to give us a high level offense. He doesnt have the ego that forces himself on all decisions. Poles gets critized for keepong him yet the Houston coach won Coach of the Year as a D coach.  

This year will prove to be  a keeper for our head coach.

I couldn't have said it better. I totally agree.

The problem I see with some fans (who dislike Flus) is they want a showman. A Ditka, Woody Hayes, Bobby Knight, screaming and yelling at their players, grabbing them by whatever uniform they are wearing and going nose to nose, and of course, throwing their clipboard, headset, or whatever as a punctuation mark. 

Ditka was entertaining, and I love the guy. However, with a GOAT team defense, and a GOAT RB, they won just one Super Bowl. I'm still shaking my head in disbelief.

 

 

[Lucky Luciano]

1 hour ago, Pixote said:

I couldn't have said it better. I totally agree.

The problem I see with some fans (who dislike Flus) is they want a showman. A Ditka, Woody Hayes, Bobby Knight, screaming and yelling at their players, grabbing them by whatever uniform they are wearing and going nose to nose, and of course, throwing their clipboard, headset, or whatever as a punctuation mark. 

Ditka was entertaining, and I love the guy. However, with a GOAT team defense, and a GOAT RB, they won just one Super Bowl. I'm still shaking my head in disbelief.

 

 

ditka was mediocre coach at BEST. anyone could have won a superbowl with that team. also buddy ryan as a DC was what brought the ring. ryan was a terrible HC but a fantastic DC. when he was gone ditka's ego and greed got in the way of winning. you are right, one SB with that team was a complete joke. between ditka and mikey they blew the dynasty created by finks and vanesi (sp?).

[DABEARSDABOMB]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I listen to the SCORE all the time and almost every host wanted Flus gone and a offensive minded coach. Now they are saying he has changed with a new look.

He's the same as he's always been, he creates culture, pushes hard work and has players respect. He literally had every member of the team over to his house for culture building. We praise Poles for good decisions, this will also praise Flus for sticking with him. He had 2 bad years learning to be a good head coach with a bad roster. The defense will be top 5 D, he will allow Waldron to give us a high level offense. He doesnt have the ego that forces himself on all decisions. Poles gets critized for keepong him yet the Houston coach won Coach of the Year as a D coach.  

This year will prove to be  a keeper for our head coach.

I hope you are right. I think our d is overhyped. Dline has serious flaws in my opinion that prevent it from being top 5. They will have room to beef up via next draft and / or free agency (just like the oline)…but I think this is more a 5-10 defense than a top 5 due to in my opinion a mediocre dline.

[Mongo3451]

I blame Charles Martin for 86.  After that, Mikey decided to not pay anyone.  Ditka wasn't good enough to overcome it.

[Pixote]

I just read that Poles is attending the Georgia & Clemson game and is already beginning his prep for the 2025 draft. What a job! I am envious. Get VIP seating, with all expenses paid by the Bears, for any college games you want to attend. Is there such a thing as a GOAT job? 🙂

 

[BearFan PHX]

I didnt like Flus, but Ive come around. I think he has changed too.

I think the last two years he was more soft, and forgiving. To give him the benefit of the doubt, I might say he knew his roster wasnt very good so he wasnt trying to burn guys out when he knew we had no chance. He seemed to be enjoying his title, but not really pushing for greatness.

Now this year he knows his butt is on the line. He also has the roster to win, and he knows that too. I have written before about how he seems more dialed in, and in footage Ive seen, more intense.

[adam]

3 hours ago, Pixote said:

I just read that Poles is attending the Georgia & Clemson game and is already beginning his prep for the 2025 draft. What a job! I am envious. Get VIP seating, with all expenses paid by the Bears, for any college games you want to attend. Is there such a thing as a GOAT job? 🙂

Those regional scouts get a ton of games in as well. From what I have heard, most go to multiple games a day and weekend.

[adam]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

I didnt like Flus, but Ive come around. I think he has changed too.

I think the last two years he was more soft, and forgiving. To give him the benefit of the doubt, I might say he knew his roster wasnt very good so he wasnt trying to burn guys out when he knew we had no chance. He seemed to be enjoying his title, but not really pushing for greatness.

Now this year he knows his butt is on the line. He also has the roster to win, and he knows that too. I have written before about how he seems more dialed in, and in footage Ive seen, more intense.

The Bears would have to go 7-10 or worse for Flus to be fired. At that point, something else went horribly wrong, not necessarily something to do with his coaching.

[BearFan PHX]

2 minutes ago, adam said:

The Bears would have to go 7-10 or worse for Flus to be fired. At that point, something else went horribly wrong, not necessarily something to do with his coaching.

I expect success for this team, and for Eberflus to get his share of the credit.

but if, for example (and I am NOT predicting this) he loses multiple games for us by going too safe too early like he has in the past, then he would be in trouble.

I do also worry about having a defensively oriented head coach which means if the offense takes off, we lose Waldron.

But it is too late to do anything about all of that, and if we perform like expected, Flus is more likely to win coach of the year than to be fired.

But he has made a bunch of bad decisions in the past. I assume the new staff will keep him on the right track, and he also seems to have grown himself as well. Cool.

[adam]

5 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I hope you are right. I think our d is overhyped. Dline has serious flaws in my opinion that prevent it from being top 5. They will have room to beef up via next draft and / or free agency (just like the oline)…but I think this is more a 5-10 defense than a top 5 due to in my opinion a mediocre dline.

I think a top 10 defense for the entire year would still be a massive jump from last year. Yes they were top 5 for a good chunk of the season, but depending on what metric you use, they were not even a top 15 defense for the entire season.

[Mongo3451]

I also believe the D will be around the ten mark.  Our back seven may be league best, while the front is probably between 15 and 20.  That's not bad considering that they are really good against the run and the back seven is elite in pass defense.

If we're looking for a top ten defense, we're going to need double digit sacks out of at least one, while getting between five and ten with a couple more.  I can see Sweat getting 12-15.  Dexter and Walker can surprise us and get 5-8.  The wildcard is Booker.  If he can also get 5-8 sacks, we are business in the top five.  Let the stars align...🍻

[BearFan PHX]

I think everyone is right that the pass rush is the difference between 5th and 10th, and i also think that if Booker doesnt come on by the trade deadline, we might be looking at a trade for someone superior. I dont know who that would be, but I didnt see Sweat on the radar either.

If on the other hand Booker and Dexter make big steps, who knows where we might be?

I was encouraged to hear poles say this was the second phase of roster building, and infer that there is a third phase yet to come. Seems we finally have a GM that knows what he's doing.

[adam]

27 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I think everyone is right that the pass rush is the difference between 5th and 10th, and i also think that if Booker doesnt come on by the trade deadline, we might be looking at a trade for someone superior. I dont know who that would be, but I didnt see Sweat on the radar either.

If on the other hand Booker and Dexter make big steps, who knows where we might be?

I was encouraged to hear poles say this was the second phase of roster building, and infer that there is a third phase yet to come. Seems we finally have a GM that knows what he's doing.

I think the Bears record will be another factor. The Bears will have 8 games in the books before the trade deadline (NOV 5th). If they are 6-2 (which is very possible), I think they will acquire either a DT or Edge to help with the playoff push, even if Booker and Dexter are holding their own.

TEN, IND, CAR, WAS, and ARZ should be wins. Then it's HOU, LAR, and JAX in the other 3. LAR and JAX are at home. Win one of those three and the Bears are 6-2. Interestingly enough, the Bears are favored in 5 games currently, and dogs in 3 (HOU, IND, and JAX). IND and JAX are by 1 pt and HOU by 3.5. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, adam said:

I think the Bears record will be another factor. The Bears will have 8 games in the books before the trade deadline (NOV 5th). If they are 6-2 (which is very possible), I think they will acquire either a DT or Edge to help with the playoff push, even if Booker and Dexter are holding their own.

TEN, IND, CAR, WAS, and ARZ should be wins. Then it's HOU, LAR, and JAX in the other 3. LAR and JAX are at home. Win one of those three and the Bears are 6-2. Interestingly enough, the Bears are favored in 5 games currently, and dogs in 3 (HOU, IND, and JAX). IND and JAX are by 1 pt and HOU by 3.5. 

for sure. if they are making a playoff run this year, that makes upgrading at the trade deadline more appealing than waiting for the draft. If we are 4-4, then maybe you dont need to jump in at that point.

[AZ54]

7 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I blame Charles Martin for 86.  After that, Mikey decided to not pay anyone.  Ditka wasn't good enough to overcome it.

True

[Stinger226]

 

[adam]

So the Bears ended up as the 22nd-best team for Total DVOA for the season. However, they finished 11th in Weighted DVOA (games later in the season have more value) which was somewhat surprising to me.

26 teams remained within 4 spots +/- when comparing season DVOA and Weighted DVOA. That leaves 6 teams that moved more than normal, 2 teams jumped up 11, and 4 teams dropped between 5 and 7 spots:

1. CHI +11 (+13.8)
2. LVR +11 (+12.7)
------------------------
29. CLE -5
30. HOU -6
31. JAX -7
32. PHI -7

So a few things. I am not giving CHI or LVR enough credit for last year's last season surge and I am probably giving HOU, JAX, and PHI too much credit when they benefitted greatly from hot starts. PHI for example, ended the season 21st in Weighted DVOA. That projects for them to have a losing record this year. Going off Weighted DVOA, this is how the season projects for these 6 teams:

CHI 11-6
LVR 10-7
CLE 9-8
HOU 8-9
JAX 8-9
PHI 7-10

Obviously, more data goes into outcomes, but it is nice to see the Bears projections matching up across multiple data sets whereas a team like PHI is all over the map.

https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa

[BearFan PHX]

23 minutes ago, adam said:

So the Bears ended up as the 22nd-best team for Total DVOA for the season. However, they finished 11th in Weighted DVOA (games later in the season have more value) which was somewhat surprising to me.

26 teams remained within 4 spots +/- when comparing season DVOA and Weighted DVOA. That leaves 6 teams that moved more than normal, 2 teams jumped up 11, and 4 teams dropped between 5 and 7 spots:

1. CHI +11 (+13.8)
2. LVR +11 (+12.7)
------------------------
29. CLE -5
30. HOU -6
31. JAX -7
32. PHI -7

So a few things. I am not giving CHI or LVR enough credit for last year's last season surge and I am probably giving HOU, JAX, and PHI too much credit when they benefitted greatly from hot starts. PHI for example, ended the season 21st in Weighted DVOA. That projects for them to have a losing record this year. Going off Weighted DVOA, this is how the season projects for these 6 teams:

CHI 11-6
LVR 10-7
CLE 9-8
HOU 8-9
JAX 8-9
PHI 7-10

Obviously, more data goes into outcomes, but it is nice to see the Bears projections matching up across multiple data sets whereas a team like PHI is all over the map.

https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa

all these cool stats are fun to read - I do truly enjoy them. Thank you for sharing all this work.

I'm sure you also agree their value in specific predictions is severely limited, I mean, we have a new QB! But all the same, when a clear trend line is pointing unmistakably upward, you can at least take that data point as a sign to expect improvement.

[adam]

41 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

all these cool stats are fun to read - I do truly enjoy them. Thank you for sharing all this work.

I'm sure you also agree their value in specific predictions is severely limited, I mean, we have a new QB! But all the same, when a clear trend line is pointing unmistakably upward, you can at least take that data point as a sign to expect improvement.

Absolutely. This team is going to go wherever Caleb takes them. If he has a "normal" rookie year, we will probably end up with 7-9 wins. If he has a year that many expect him to have (just based on historical trends), the Bears should win 10+. 

I just found it interesting that the Bears were 11th (higher than expected) and had the biggest DVOA jump that I could find (ever). This year's team should be better, if not as good as that team was but for an entire year. The 11th best team is a 10 win team, which tracks with pretty much all other metrics, SoS, WAR, AV, PFF, etc.

I like that kinda party!

 

[adam]

What I find kind of weird is that the Bears defense was tied for 3rd for EPA/Rush and allowed the fewest rushing yards at 86.4 yards a game last year.

To me it just felt like the rushing defense was below average, with only Billings as a true run defender. Jones and Ngakoue were both bad against the run, and those two are gone. If Dexter and Pickens can improve, with the elite secondary, this defense may be better than we think.

[BearFan PHX]

15 minutes ago, adam said:

Absolutely. This team is going to go wherever Caleb takes them. If he has a "normal" rookie year, we will probably end up with 7-9 wins. If he has a year that many expect him to have (just based on historical trends), the Bears should win 10+. 

I just found it interesting that the Bears were 11th (higher than expected) and had the biggest DVOA jump that I could find (ever). This year's team should be better, if not as good as that team was but for an entire year. The 11th best team is a 10 win team, which tracks with pretty much all other metrics, SoS, WAR, AV, PFF, etc.

I like that kinda party!

 

I agree with all of this. I was thinking, off the top of my head, that we should be able to routinely beat the 16 worst teams in the league, which means we are probably 12th, but really heading higher, because the 12th best teams doesnt "routinely" beat the 17th best team.

I'd say we are around 12th-ish, heading into the top 10 maybe even top 5. But we will find those top 5 teams are on another level, and while our roster probably matches up with them, we will need to learn how much desire and will we have for winning when we meet those teams. I always think thats the last lesson you need to learn before you are truly competing.

I think of the 1984 Bears getting easily handled by the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. They already had a magical roster, but they didn't know how deep they were going to have to dig yet. That's our ceiling right now I think. I dont want to contemplate our floor, but assuming we play our cards well, it's still 8+ wins.

[adam]

I have been trying to find something that points to the Bears having a bad season, or be worse than they were a year ago. I can't find anything, and everything points up.

Waldron > Getsy

Caleb > Justin (as a passer)
Swift > Foreman
Everett > Tonyan
Shelton > Patrick
Allen > Mooney
Odunze > Claypool
Byard > Jackson
Taylor > Gill

One of the easier schedules, with a net rest advantage. 

[adam]

7 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I agree with all of this. I was thinking, off the top of my head, that we should be able to routinely beat the 20 worst teams in the league, which means we are 12th, but really heading highers, because the 12th best teams doesnt "routinely" beat the 13th best team.

I'd say we are around 12th, heading into the top 10 maybe even top 5. But we will find those top 5 teams are on a nother level, and while our roster probably matches up with them, we will need to learn how much desire and will we have for winning when we meet those teams. I always think thats the last lesson you need to learn before you are truly competing.

I think of the 1984 Bears getting easily handled by the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. They already had a magical roster, but they didn't know how deep they were going to have to dig yet. That's our ceiling right now I think. I dont want to contemplate our floor, but assuming we play our cards well, it's still 8+ wins.

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Also, for some reason, we match up very well against the Lions. So even though they may be a top 5 team, we should be good for a split with them. Besides them, SF is really the only other top 5 team. In SF, chalk that up as a loss. It feels like all other games are winnable.

It makes sense because they did lose 3 games in ridiculous fashion, so they could've been a 10-win team. Everything else points to that as well.

So I think 10 is the floor, 13 is the ceiling. Injuries or Caleb completely choking (a ton of turnovers) would be the only thing preventing that, IMO.