The Chicago Bears are on the clock! OFFSEASON OPEN THREAD!

[BearFan PHX]

32 minutes ago, Pixote said:

The way I read his posting was that there is historical proof that it is possible for a HC to start off with a poor record of wins and losses, and turn it around. (He agrees that it is not guaranteed Flus will do so, just that it is possible as history has proven!) I do not find that inane. Many first time HCs start their career off with a team in rebuild mode. It takes time and patience.

To say his use of historical data to support his opinion inane, to me is calling his opinion inane. So I therefore can see why he might be offended.

right, so the first point is: does it prove it's LIKELY or just POSSIBLE.

That something is possible doesnt mean it is likely. We can all find many more examples of coaches and players who were bad and stayed bad. So it is a logical fallacy to say one predicts the other? That's what's inane.

It is possible Trubisky will be a better QB next year. Other QBs have gotten better after being bad. Is that a reason to sign Trubisky, just because it is possible? Of course not. Youd want some reason why it was likely hed be better. Saying you have some indication Trubisky is going to grow is a fine opinion. Saying it's because another QB grew isnt a logical argument. My beef is with the argument, not the conclusion.

Again, if I say "Cows are blue, so I think it's a good idea to keep Eberflus" and someone says "Cows arent blue, thats dumb" that doesnt mean they are saying that keeping Eberflus is dumb. It means that promoting that reason as WHY is dumb.

When I say "Fields is bad because hasnt done well in the passing game" and someone else says "thats because he hasnt had protection" are they disrespecting me or my opinion? Of course not. They are arguing with whether my assertion is true, that he is bad BECAUSE of his passing stats. And they are saying those STATS arent a predictor because of OTHER factors.

It's normal, it's how debates work. Dick Vermeil does not predict Matt Eberflus, and you need more than the idea that something is POSSIBLE to argue for doing it, you need to support the position that it is LIKELY.

That is why it is a logical fallacy, and as repeated so many times, inane.

If people cant win their points with logical arguments and have to resort to pretending to be offended, thats silly and weak.

[Stinger226]

25 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

right, so the first point is: does it prove it's LIKELY or just POSSIBLE.

That something is possible doesnt mean it is likely. We can all find many more examples of coaches and players who were bad and stayed bad. So it is a logical fallacy to say one predicts the other? That's what's inane.

It is possible Trubisky will be a better QB next year. Other QBs have gotten better after being bad. Is that a reason to sign Trubisky, just because it is possible? Of course not. Youd want some reason why it was likely hed be better. Saying you have some indication Trubisky is going to grow is a fine opinion. Saying it's because another QB grew isnt a logical argument. My beef is with the argument, not the conclusion.

Again, if I say "Cows are blue, so I think it's a good idea to keep Eberflus" and someone says "Cows arent blue, thats dumb" that doesnt mean they are saying that keeping Eberflus is dumb. It means that promoting that reason as WHY is dumb.

When I say "Fields is bad because hasnt done well in the passing game" and someone else says "thats because he hasnt had protection" are they disrespecting me or my opinion? Of course not. They are arguing with whether my assertion is true, that he is bad BECAUSE of his passing stats. And they are saying those STATS arent a predictor because of OTHER factors.

It's normal, it's how debates work. Dick Vermeil does not predict Matt Eberflus, and you need more than the idea that something is POSSIBLE to argue for doing it, you need to support the position that it is LIKELY.

That is why it is a logical fallacy, and as repeated so many times, inane.

If people cant win their points with logical arguments and have to resort to pretending to be offended, thats silly and weak.

That in itself is where the problem comes , you say it has to meet your criteria or their argument is silly and weak. Someone shows you that their opinion has happened before but because its not a high percentage the take is ,it doesn't count. Its not 50/50 but it sure in hell ain't 95/05 either. The fact it's possible is enough of a argument to have an opinion.

[Pixote]

14 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

That in itself is where the problem comes , you say it has to meet your criteria or their argument is silly and weak. Someone shows you that their opinion has happened before but because its not a high percentage the take is ,it doesn't count. Its not 50/50 but it sure in hell ain't 95/05 either. The fact it's possible is enough of a argument to have an opinion.

Agree, 100%.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

My favorite mock draft possible: 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/mock-draft-fields-headed-patriots-162604963.html

 

Caleb at 1

MHJ at 3 (Bears trade up with New England giving up #9, Fields and 2025 6th rounder; Bears get back #3 pick, 4th rounder, and 2025 3rd and 5th rounder)

Note: This would be a coup de coup.  I don't believe for one second what the author proposes is realistic, but boy would I be happy.  I presume only way this type of haul happens is if there is at least a mid to late 1st round grade applied to Fields.  

[BearFan PHX]

Eh you guys are just being stupid. Youre caught on one side of an argument and you cant back off the territory you staked out.

You got into it because youre defending Eberflus which is FINE. That's an opinion.

Dick Vermeil was a bad coach who became a good coach. There is a list a mile long of bad coaches who stayed bad. Youre right its not 95/5 that would be WAAAAAYYYYY too high. It's more like 99.99/ 0.01 - almost all bad players and coaches stay bad. And you all know it.

NOW, if you can actually listen and get past your egos, there are PLENTY of good arguments for keeping Eberflus. So Im not saying youre dumb for wanting that. YOURE NOT. That's just a simple difference of opinion.

But if youre gonna seriously pick this hill to die on - that Vermeil did it so it's POSSIBLE, and that anything thats POSSIBLE is worth doing, then what about all the other coaches? They could POSSIBLY win a Super Bowl for us too. Maybe we should hire Matt Nagy or Mark Trestman. They were bad, so Vermeil means they could be good in the future! Hooray!

That's just is not a logical argument. If 3 of you or 5 of you or all of you insist that the earth is flat, youre not gonna get me to agree. because its WRONG. Its not an opinion. Its just wrong.

Saying you want to keep Eberflus for all the reasons that you wrote before Pix is FINE. It's not dumb at ALL.

Keeping Eberflus is an opinion. Saying Vermeil predicts his future is DUMB and WRONG. Saying that anything that's possible is a good strategy is WRONG. It's actually shocking that you'd say it with a straight face.

But now youve picked a side and cant admit youre wrong, and the silliness starts.

[BearFan PHX]

4 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

My favorite mock draft possible: 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/mock-draft-fields-headed-patriots-162604963.html

 

Caleb at 1

MHJ at 3 (Bears trade up with New England giving up #9, Fields and 2025 6th rounder; Bears get back #3 pick, 4th rounder, and 2025 3rd and 5th rounder)

Note: This would be a coup de coup.  I don't believe for one second what the author proposes is realistic, but boy would I be happy.  I presume only way this type of haul happens is if there is at least a mid to late 1st round grade applied to Fields.  

yeah this would be ridiculously good.

[Mongo3451]

50 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Eh you guys are just being stupid. Youre caught on one side of an argument and you cant back off the territory you staked out.

That's the exact thing you are doing. You are choosing to die on a hill that hasn't formed yet.  You've taken an unpopular stance with Poles, in which everyone disagrees and you try slip it in whenever you can.  Flus, is our coach next year.  Your opinion that he can not take us anywhere has been heard.  Again, most of us disagree.  Lastly, with Fields, I've even stated that HE will never take us anywhere.  I still don't see it.  But, if they feel he is the guy, I'll mildly disagree and move on untill he fails or succeeds.  I can tell you from experience that Grizz will never stop finding that one little thing to jab back at you with.  He's a stud at a civil debate.  And you're beef with Stinger needs to stop, because he's been as straight of shooter as I've seen on this site.  You have completely misunderstood him.  You yourself are masterful at presenting an argument, but understand that you aren't the only one.  We completely understand what you are saying, so please drop the smartest guy in the room act.  We're re all brothers here.

[Stinger226]

59 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Eh you guys are just being stupid. Youre caught on one side of an argument and you cant back off the territory you staked out.

You got into it because youre defending Eberflus which is FINE. That's an opinion.

Dick Vermeil was a bad coach who became a good coach. There is a list a mile long of bad coaches who stayed bad. Youre right its not 95/5 that would be WAAAAAYYYYY too high. It's more like 99.99/ 0.01 - almost all bad players and coaches stay bad. And you all know it.

NOW, if you can actually listen and get past your egos, there are PLENTY of good arguments for keeping Eberflus. So Im not saying youre dumb for wanting that. YOURE NOT. That's just a simple difference of opinion.

But if youre gonna seriously pick this hill to die on - that Vermeil did it so it's POSSIBLE, and that anything thats POSSIBLE is worth doing, then what about all the other coaches? They could POSSIBLY win a Super Bowl for us too. Maybe we should hire Matt Nagy or Mark Trestman. They were bad, so Vermeil means they could be good in the future! Hooray!

That's just is not a logical argument. If 3 of you or 5 of you or all of you insist that the earth is flat, youre not gonna get me to agree. because its WRONG. Its not an opinion. Its just wrong.

Saying you want to keep Eberflus for all the reasons that you wrote before Pix is FINE. It's not dumb at ALL.

Keeping Eberflus is an opinion. Saying Vermeil predicts his future is DUMB and WRONG. Saying that anything that's possible is a good strategy is WRONG. It's actually shocking that you'd say it with a straight face.

But now youve picked a side and cant admit youre wrong, and the silliness starts.

Now I understand it's stupid to disagree with you. Now on Flus, he's our coach next  year so that doesn't need to be discussed anymore. So  we can go over that argument one year from now. All of this cleared up in one post. Let's start doing draft talk and prospect information.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

That's the exact thing you are doing. You are choosing to die on a hill that hasn't formed yet.  You've taken an unpopular stance with Poles, in which everyone disagrees and you try slip it in whenever you can.  Flus, is our coach next year.  Your opinion that he can not take us anywhere has been heard.  Again, most of us disagree.  Lastly, with Fields, I've even stated that HE will never take us anywhere.  I still don't see it.  But, if they feel he is the guy, I'll mildly disagree and move on untill he fails or succeeds.  I can tell you from experience that Grizz will never stop finding that one little thing to jab back at you with.  He's a stud at a civil debate.  And you're beef with Stinger needs to stop, because he's been as straight of shooter as I've seen on this site.  You have completely misunderstood him.  You yourself are masterful at presenting an argument, but understand that you aren't the only one.  We completely understand what you are saying, so please drop the smartest guy in the room act.  We're re all brothers here.

I dont think Im smarter than anyone else. Thats silly.

I also think its OK to like Flus or not like Flus.

There must be 50 arguments for keeping Flus. Most of them are decent arguments. I dont agree with the conclusion, but they are fine logical arguments.

One of them is dumb, and makes no sense, and keeps getting repeated. That's the ONLY thing I'm talking about.

Most bad coaches never get good. A few do. Bringing up one is anecdotal evidence and doesnt suggest anything about what will happen to Eberflus. That's all Im saying. One of the arguments is illogical, that does not mean the entire idea of keeping Eberflus is illogical, just that one reason.

Im saying its a logical fallacy and the argument is dumb. Not that there arent other arguments for keeping Flus that arent logical fallacies.

Im not disrespecting peoples overall opinions. I'm discounting just one of the arguments, because it is objectively flawed.

Anecdotal Evidence, from Wikipedia

Where only one or a few anecdotes are presented, there is a larger chance that they may be unreliable due to cherry-picked or otherwise non-representative samples of typical cases.^[2][3] Similarly, psychologists have found that due to cognitive bias people are more likely to remember notable or unusual examples rather than typical examples.^[4] Thus, even when accurate, anecdotal evidence is not necessarily representative of a typical experience. Accurate determination of whether an anecdote is typical requires statistical evidence.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

34 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I'm discounting just one of the arguments, because it is objectively flawed.

And THAT is solely opinion.  ??

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Keeping in mind that a few weeks ago, Poles said the Bears were "open for business" in regards to trading the #1 pick, I'd be curious to see what type of offer Minnesota would be willing to make.  With the #11 overall pick, it would be pretty costly.

https://www.si.com/fannation/bringmethesports/vikings/report-vikings-wouldnt-bat-an-eye-at-steep-price-to-move-up-for-qb 

[BearFan PHX]

25 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

And THAT is solely opinion.  ??

lol, I see what you're doing, but no, it's not.

[Pixote]

9 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

lol, I see what you're doing, but no, it's not.

lol, sorry, but yes it is, and I already explained why, which you in turn refused to accept.

Do us all a favor, just drop it, let it die a merciful death, to allow us to move on to discussing the Bears. That would be a delightful change.

[Stinger226]

5 minutes ago, Pixote said:

lol, sorry, but yes it is, and I already explained why, which you in turn refused to accept.

Do us all a favor, just drop it, let it die a merciful death, to allow us to move on to discussing the Bears. That would be a delightful change.

So assuming Poles trades the 1 st pick, who will he take with pick 9 and the extra pick in round 2? I saying a WR and edge  not in any particular order.

[Pixote]

6 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

So assuming Poles trades the 1 st pick, who will he take with pick 9 and the extra pick in round 2? I saying a WR and edge  not in any particular order.

My guess, he first trades with one of the teams in the top five. As hot as this pick will be, the bidding will be heated. I honestly believe for a small drop in the order, we can get a 2nd this year and at least a 1st for 2025, possibly more. Then with that pick we draft a QB to develop along with, with #9, the top WR available.

If, a big IF, he felt the QB could be taken later, another trade down for more picks before we make our first selection at #9.

[BearFan PHX]

26 minutes ago, Pixote said:

lol, sorry, but yes it is, and I already explained why, which you in turn refused to accept.

Do us all a favor, just drop it, let it die a merciful death, to allow us to move on to discussing the Bears. That would be a delightful change.

Sorry, but the earth isnt flat and anecdotal evidence isnt predictive. It just isnt. In any century, at any time, on any subject.

No matter who asks nicely and or tries to apply social pressure or whatever you cant make me say it - its wrong to even try. I know that that is a well known logical fallacy. It just is. It was true before any of us were born.

We can move on, that's fine. But google it and find out.

[Stinger226]

So what happens next year when Flus goes 11-6 ? 3-14, 7-10 then 11-6.

[BearFan PHX]

3 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

So what happens next year when Flus goes 11-6 ? 3-14, 7-10 then 11-6.

It could definitely happen. If the defense plays well, if Waldron and the QB get the offense going.

Im not saying that because anecdotal evidence isnt predictive it means Flus CAN'T succeed. I'm just saying that anecdotal evidence doesn't prove he WILL succeed. Im saying anecdotal evidence doesn't prove either side or anything. That's all Im saying.

we're all sports fans, we all know this already dont we?

[Alaskan Grizzly]

9 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I'm just saying that anecdotal evidence doesn't prove he WILL succeed. Im saying anecdotal evidence doesn't prove either side or anything

The "evidence" I presented was historical data to support others have done it before. No where did I conjoin the two thoughts of Vermiel and Campbell's success to mean that Flus would in turn succeed.  From what we can gather, some combination of Warren and Poles thought along the same line because they chose to keep him.  Warren had been quoted as saying he was in Saint Louis when Vermeil was making his second run at turning a team around (in three years).  He witnessed the struggles the team went through before they rose to the top.  Theoretically speaking, he (not me) may very well think that it could be repeated in Chicago.  It doesn't necessarily mean that Flus will be the key to the overall success, just that keeping him in place would be better than replacing him.  

Now you want to talk anecdotal evidence?  I've lived in Alaska for over 40 years now.  I'm pretty sure it'll snow again next winter because it did most of the last 40+ years.  

[Pixote]

16 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

It could definitely happen. If the defense plays well, if Waldron and the QB get the offense going.

That is all that was said, that it could happen. No one knows if it will happen. If I could forecast the future, I be one rich dude.

17 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

Im not saying that because anecdotal evidence isnt predictive it means Flus CAN'T succeed. I'm just saying that anecdotal evidence doesn't prove he WILL succeed. Im saying anecdotal evidence doesn't prove either side or anything. That's all Im saying.

No one was using the historical data to predict or prove what will happen, only that it has happened in the past. Of course, we are hoping it will happen again.

As I said before, it isn't unusual for a first time HC to take over a crappy team in a full rebuild and struggle. If the GM does his job and provides him with a good roster, then hopefully he can provide the team's fans with a playoff & Super Bowl contender. BUT, it takes time and patience.

[adam]

26 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

So what happens next year when Flus goes 11-6 ? 3-14, 7-10 then 11-6.

10 wins has to be the target next year. I would say anything less than 9 and he is probably gone because you can fall backwards into an extra win per year just on per luck. Normally 3 wins is true progress. 11 would be exceeding that for me. If he does that, let's keep it up, but chances are Waldron is gone.

[Pixote]

2 minutes ago, adam said:

10 wins has to be the target next year. I would say anything less than 9 and he is probably gone because you can fall backwards into an extra win per year just on per luck. Normally 3 wins is true progress. 11 would be exceeding that for me. If he does that, let's keep it up, but chances are Waldron is gone.

You might be right, so let's make sure he brings along Greg Olsen as QB coach so he can groom him to take over after he gets offered a HC gig.

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Pixote said:

You might be right, so let's make sure he brings along Greg Olsen as QB coach so he can groom him to take over after he gets offered a HC gig.

for sure.

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Now you want to talk anecdotal evidence?  I've lived in Alaska for over 40 years now.  I'm pretty sure it'll snow again next winter because it did most of the last 40+ years.  

That's statistical evidence though, and as i dont need to tell you - extremely predictive.

[Mongo3451]

14 hours ago, adam said:

11 would be exceeding that for me. If he does that, let's keep it up, but chances are Waldron is gone.

Looking at the schedule, my full expectation is 10 or 11 wins.  That's with Justin.  A rookie may or may not stumble.